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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Mikey AD hits new high...Volume picks up

     
    The DJI stalled but the A/D line made a new high.  Aided by a slam in the dollar,  volume picked up and new highs recorded 249 on the NYSE. If there are any shorts left they have their stops about 100 points higher. This is probably to juicy a target for the Fed to pass up.
    The Mikey 3 closed at 148 so a pullback may be necessary.

    Bull/Bear numbers released today show that the ratio has fallen from 1.79 to 1.60.  The percent of stocks above their 200 day is now a whopping 70%.  Bonds sold off and rates rose to 1.82 on the 10 year and 3% on the 30 year.  The 30 year bonds broke its intermediate term uptrend and is now in a downtrend.  On the economic babble front, housing numbers showed big gains so the the idea is to show an economy that is picking up again.

    Mikey 
     
    
    
Daily Uptrend 12822 on 7-20
Long Term UP/ Intermediate Term Up/ Daily Trend Up /Short Term up
DJI Close 13557.00 +5.22
Current trading range: 13295- 14200
Step up trading range 14200 -new high
Step down support range 12780-13295
 
50 Hour Ave:13440 Price above
20 Day Ave: 13489 Price above
50 Day Ave: 13341 Price above
20 Week Ave: 13126 Price above
50 Week Ave: 12808 Price above
50 Month Ave 10942 Price above

Overbought/Oversold Oscillator(Mikey reading) +100  to -100
3 day -+148 N  7 day +44 N 20 day +25  N  50 day +100 N

MACD Readings
MACD Crosses: Negative cross = consolidation/correction Positive cross=uptrend
Short term (50 hour) , up  (5 Hrs) signal 10-16
MACD Hourly +38.27
Daily trend (50 day) Up 65 days 7-17 12805
MACD Daily + 41.42 Negative cross 9-26
Intermediate trend (50 week) Up (17 weeks).signal 6-1 12118
MACD Weekly (+236.96) Positive cross  7-30
Long term trend (50 month) Up (22 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
MACD Monthly (+600.97) Positive Cross 9-1-09








IBD:Market in correction 10-10,  13344

Volume Readings
Volume (Millions) NYSE 3570 NASDAQ 1734
Advance/Decline NYSE  +1141 NASDAQ +543
Mikey NYSE A/D line +66861 Mikey NASDAQ A/D line -12347
Trader Psychology
Put/Call day .78 10 day .79 Put Prem/Call Prem  .76 10 day .85
Bull/Bear Ratio 1.60 Bulls 42.6 %, Bears 26.6%
Mutial Funds Buy/Redeem ratio 1.15
VIX 14.55 VXZ 31.09 Trin  .80 10 day ave 1.14
Mikey Fear  102 (80 Low 20 High)
New Highs NYSE 195 NASDAQ 92  New Lows NYSE 14 NASDAQ 30
% Stocks above 200 day ave 70% (above 50% uptrend)

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 13557.00 +5.22  S/P 500 1460.91 + 5.99  NASDAQ 3104.12 +2.95
DJT 5148.70 +29.83 DJU 485.85 +5.44
US Debt Markets
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1505% 2 yr .2982% 5 yr .7797% 10 yr 1.82% 30 yr  3.00
IEF (US 7-10 yr) 107.01 -.65 TLT (20 yr)120.30 -1.68 High Yield 93.65 +.35
MUB(NatMuni) 11165 -.28 Cal Muni(NCA)10.69 -.03
BND Total Bnd Ind 84.59 -.21
Commodities
CRB Commodities Index 307.81 +1.61
Gold  1757.50 +14.80 Silver 33.23 +.37 Copper 3.75 +.05 Platinum 1675.50 +20.30
Oil 92.12 +.03 RBOB 2.78 -.06 Nat Gas 3.47 +.04
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.3036 +.0073 Pound 1.5979 +.0031 Swiss Franc 1.0677 +.0048
Yen .012431 -000009 Aussie 1.0392 +.0104 Canadian Dollar 1.0153 .0087
Dollar Index 79.46 -.34

All Market Trends:

Commodities
Gold:  LongTerm/ Intermediate Term  Daily Trend// Short term
Silver: Long Term / Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
Copper:Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
Oil:       Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
Gasoline Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
Nat Gas:Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
CRB        Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
Bond Markets
US Bonds LT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
Intl  Treas       Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend /Short term
Intl Corp          Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
US Muni        Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend   Short Trend
High Yield     Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
Currencies
Aussie DollarLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
Brit PD         Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
Euro             Long Term/Intermediate Term/Daily Trend Short term
Yen               Long Term/ Intermediate Term/Daily Trend/  Short term
Swiss            Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
Can Dollar Long Term/ Intermediate Term Daily Trend/ Short term
US Dollar   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
Stocks
US      Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/  Short term
Europe Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
Germany Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
China     Long Term/ Intermediate Term Daily Trend/ / Short term
Brazil    Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
India   Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
Emerg Mkts Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
Japan Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term


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