The DJI is at an interesting position, for the second consecutive day the DJI hovered just above the 200 day average. This is the support area for the intermediate term uptrend and the breakout area that was made in July. This is an important area and the Puppet master is not tipping his hand just yet.
I have seen that the Aussie is being supported and may be turning back up. The negativity is now prevalent in the market and the earnings are coming in bad for the big names. It is a little too pat for me right now.
The 20 day average is about to cross down through the 50 day. This can be a negative development. It depend upon the degree that is falls below the 50 day. If there is a gap created with the spread of the 20 below the 50 then that would be a negative. It would also set up a strong snap back rally and would cross back above the 50 day. The following cross below the 50 would signal a lasting top.
I am going to take a wait and see attitude for now and let the price tell me what to do. There appears to be a rolling correction going on and it really has not shown up yet in the DJI. The DJI has only corrected 5% while most stocks have corrected in the 15% range. The Fed, I would think, feels good about the recent declines in commodities especially oil. Some air has been let out of the balloon and this may be enough for them for now.
The level of Corporate cash is at record levels and is over a trillion dollars in just the S&P 500 alone. Jamie Dimon ,Chase CEO, says the big corporation heads he is talking to are starting to cut and gear down for the Fiscal cliff that is coming early next year. They want to protect that cash hoard that they have stolen from the US Treasury.
The battle is over spending cuts and tax increases both things that corporations, that are living in this corporate welfare state, do not want. They see the handwriting on the wall and are making plans to cut back. This may be a reason to drop stock prices in the next 3 months and it will take center stage after the election. Keep this in mind and do not trade against the trends.
Mikey
I have seen that the Aussie is being supported and may be turning back up. The negativity is now prevalent in the market and the earnings are coming in bad for the big names. It is a little too pat for me right now.
The 20 day average is about to cross down through the 50 day. This can be a negative development. It depend upon the degree that is falls below the 50 day. If there is a gap created with the spread of the 20 below the 50 then that would be a negative. It would also set up a strong snap back rally and would cross back above the 50 day. The following cross below the 50 would signal a lasting top.
I am going to take a wait and see attitude for now and let the price tell me what to do. There appears to be a rolling correction going on and it really has not shown up yet in the DJI. The DJI has only corrected 5% while most stocks have corrected in the 15% range. The Fed, I would think, feels good about the recent declines in commodities especially oil. Some air has been let out of the balloon and this may be enough for them for now.
The level of Corporate cash is at record levels and is over a trillion dollars in just the S&P 500 alone. Jamie Dimon ,Chase CEO, says the big corporation heads he is talking to are starting to cut and gear down for the Fiscal cliff that is coming early next year. They want to protect that cash hoard that they have stolen from the US Treasury.
The battle is over spending cuts and tax increases both things that corporations, that are living in this corporate welfare state, do not want. They see the handwriting on the wall and are making plans to cut back. This may be a reason to drop stock prices in the next 3 months and it will take center stage after the election. Keep this in mind and do not trade against the trends.
Mikey
DJI Trend Summary
Daily Downtrend 13344 on 10-23 4 days
Intermediate Uptrend at 12400 on 6-7 19 weeks old
Long Term Uptrend 11315 on 11-1-10 2 years old
Last high 9-14 13653 Last Low 10-25 13039
20 day average rallies since downtrend began 0
50 day averge rallies since uptrend began 0
IBD Market in correction 10-13 13344
Long Term UP/ Intermediate Term Up/ Daily Trend Down/Short Term up
Intermediate Uptrend at 12400 on 6-7 19 weeks old
Long Term Uptrend 11315 on 11-1-10 2 years old
Last high 9-14 13653 Last Low 10-25 13039
20 day average rallies since downtrend began 0
50 day averge rallies since uptrend began 0
IBD Market in correction 10-13 13344
Long Term UP/ Intermediate Term Up/ Daily Trend Down/Short Term up
DJI Close 13112.78 +9.10
Step up range: 13295- 13653
Step up range: 13295- 13653
Current trading range 12966 - 13344
Step down support range 12300-12966
Average watch
50 Hour Ave: 13246 Price below
20 Day Ave: 13394 Price below
50 Day Ave: 13348 Price below(do not be long if this line is red)
20 Week Ave: 13143 Price below
50 Week Ave: 12823 Price above
200 Week Ave 11031 Price above
Overbought/Oversold Oscillator(Mikey reading) +150 to -150
Take profits at +150 readings buy or cover at -150 readings
3 day +31 N 7 day -72 N 20 day +14 N 50 day +55 N
Take profits at +150 readings buy or cover at -150 readings
3 day +31 N 7 day -72 N 20 day +14 N 50 day +55 N
MACD Readings
MACD Crosses: Negative cross = consolidation/correction Positive cross=uptrend
Short term (50 hour) , down (39 Hrs) signal 10-19
MACD Hourly -39.91
Daily trend (50 day) Down 4 days 10-23-12
MACD Daily -63.82 Negative cross 9-26
Intermediate trend (50 week) Up (19 weeks).signal 6-7 12400
MACD Weekly (+188.98) Negative cross 10-23-12
Long term trend (200 week) Up (22 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
MACD Monthly (+559.50) Positive Cross 9-1-09
Volume Readings
Volume (Millions) NYSE 3251 NASDAQ 1805
Advance/Decline NYSE + 509 NASDAQ -276
Mikey NYSE A/D line +64341 Mikey NASDAQ A/D line -15606
Trader Psychology
Put/Call day .90 10 day .87 Put Prem/Call Prem 1.1210 day .97
Bull/Bear Ratio 1.50 Bulls41.5 %, Bears 27.7%
Mutial Funds Buy/Redeem ratio 1.15
VIX 18.05 VXZ 31.53 Trin 1.58 10 day ave 1.53
Mikey Fear 88 (20 high, 80 low)
New Highs NYSE 78 NASDAQ 43 New Lows NYSE 44 NASDAQ 61
% Stocks above 200 day ave 59% (above 50% intermediate term uptrend)
Closing Prices
86.28 +.23
US Stocks
DJIA 13112,78 +9.10 S/P 500 1412.46 -.51 NASDAQ 2988.76 +2.64
DJT 5051.34 +16.05 DJU 475.30 -.50
US Debt Markets
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1522 % 2 yr .3127% 5 yr .8155% 10 yr 1.75% 30 yr 2.91
IEF (US 7-10 yr) 107.45 +.68 TLT (20 yr) 122.64 +1.78 High Yield 92.48 -.22
MUB(NatMuni) 112.00 +.14 Cal Muni(NCA)10.49 -.02
BND Total Bnd Ind 84.74 +.18
Commodities
CRB Commodities Index 296.84 -.90
Gold 1711.90 -1.10 Silver 32.03 -.04 Copper 3.55 - Platinum 1546.00 -22.80
Oil 86.05 +.23 RBOB 2.70 +.02 Nat Gas 3.40 -03
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.2847 -.0011 Pound 1.5925 +.0037 Swiss Franc 1.0523 -.0012
Yen .012326 +00104 Aussie 1.0387 +.0009 Canadian Dollar .9966 -.0037
Dollar Index 80.15 +.03
All Market Trends:
Commodities
Gold: LongTerm/ Intermediate Term Daily Trend// Short term
Silver: Long Term / Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
Copper :Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
Oil: Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
Gasoline Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
Nat Gas :Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
CRB Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
Bond Markets
US Bonds LT Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
Intl Treas Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend /Short term
Intl Corp Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
US Muni Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend Short Trend
High Yield Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
Currencies
Aussie DollarLong Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ / Short term
Brit PD Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
Brit PD Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
Euro Long Term/Intermediate Term/Daily Trend Short term
Yen Long Term/ Intermediate Term/Daily Trend/ Short term
Swiss Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
Can Dollar Long term/ Intermediate Term Daily Trend/ Short term
Can Dollar Long term/ Intermediate Term Daily Trend/ Short term
US Dollar Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend / Short term
Stocks
US Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
Europe Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
Stocks
US Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
Europe Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
Germany Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
China Long Term/ Intermediate Term Daily Trend/ / Short term
Brazil Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
India Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
Emerg Mkts Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/Short term
Japan Long Term/ Intermediate Term/ Daily Trend/ Short term
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