DJIA 9938 +176 SPX 1063 +21 VIX 24.96 -2.95 Gold 1046 +16.40 Silver 16.63 +.395 RBOB (Whsl Gasoline)2.02 +.035 Dollar Index 76.09 -.49 EURO 1.4826 +.0129 TLT (Long Term Gov Bonds) 94.34 -1.12 IEF (7-10 Yr Gov Bonds)91.32 -.43 XLK (Tech)21.15 +.38 XLE(Oil Index)54.47 +1.53 (XLF Financials Index)14.69 +.55 XHB (Homebuilders Index)14.44+.56 EEM (Emerging Markets)39.43 +1.70 FXI (China Index)43.34 +1.15 GDX (Gold Miners Index)43.82 +1.95
The GDP came in better than expected and the pimps are coming out of the woodwork crying the economy had bottomed buy the commodities sell the dollar. The fact is that too many stocks have broken down and it was becoming obvious that the market had topped. I was hearing experts say that if we fell below 1050 on the S&P that it was over for now.
The game is to reverse directions when the short term players start to catch on that something is happening. That is what today is all about. The market had made a lower low and flashed a sell signal. The players were getting short so on the open they give them a great GDP and a nice big rally to deal with. As I said before this this is going to stair step its way down so that no one is comfortable or will be able to figure it out.
I will short this rally at some point in the next 2 to six days. This kind of rally will be happening alot on the way down. The fact still remains that the economy has had it and this thing ends bad. This rally is to the economy as the "good" earnings were to the stocks that took out their highs and then tanked. The price of admission is that nothing comes easy. If you are short today is tough to take but it is just part of the game.
In a bear market every new low is followed by a sharp rally that keeps the longs in and stampedes the shorts. Today is the first of many of this sharp rallies that we will have on the way down.
The beat goes on....Mikey
Thursday, October 29, 2009
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
This is getting Ugly
DJIA 9848 -33.78 SPX 1053 -10.23 VIX 26.05 +1.22 Gold 1033.40 -2.00 Silver 16.33 -.21Oil77.88 -1.67 RBOB (Whsl Gasoline)2.00 -.06 Dollar Index 76.50 +.18 EURO 1.4750 -.0045 Long Term Gov Bonds) 95.45 +.54 IEF (7-10 Yr Gov Bonds)91.79 +.32 XLK (Tech)20.96 -.12 XLE(Oil Index)56.70 -1.16 XLF Financials Index)14.32 -.28 XHB (Homebuilders Index)14.16 -.45 EEM (Emerging Markets)38.19 -1.36 FXI (China Index)42.47 -1.40 GDX (Gold Miners Index)42.58 -1.88
Santa Maria!!!!!!!!!! The DJIA has barely budged but more and more stocks are getting smoked. The Commodities and Metal stocks are falling apart. It is just a matter of days until they hit the DJIA.
The Euro has clearly topped short term and the "carry trade" is unraveling. The dollar index is now starting to wake up and is at 76.50. The world is completely asleep on this one and will be blindsided by the emerging dollar strength. Gold now at 1033 -2.00 is a sure thing to fall below 1000 and soon.
I have been saying that the story is bogus and everyone is on the wrong side of it. The setup is complete the waters have been chummed and the fish have been given their free lunch. It is time to drop the net and scoop them up.
Looking to short RSH V AMZN in a couple of days
Shorted MSFT @28.21 and AMZN @ 121.11
Mikey
Santa Maria!!!!!!!!!! The DJIA has barely budged but more and more stocks are getting smoked. The Commodities and Metal stocks are falling apart. It is just a matter of days until they hit the DJIA.
The Euro has clearly topped short term and the "carry trade" is unraveling. The dollar index is now starting to wake up and is at 76.50. The world is completely asleep on this one and will be blindsided by the emerging dollar strength. Gold now at 1033 -2.00 is a sure thing to fall below 1000 and soon.
I have been saying that the story is bogus and everyone is on the wrong side of it. The setup is complete the waters have been chummed and the fish have been given their free lunch. It is time to drop the net and scoop them up.
Looking to short RSH V AMZN in a couple of days
Shorted MSFT @28.21 and AMZN @ 121.11
Mikey
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Short term sell signals on Gold and the Euro
I now have short term sell signals on Gold 1036 -6.80 and the Euro 1.4786 -.0063.
These are lagging the GDX 44 which flashed its signal at 47 last Tuesday. The DJIA has also given a short term sell signal today along with the strength in the Dollar. The Dollar index for all of the negative talk is at 76.45 which is at a 2 week high.
The Transportation average broke last Thursday and is now 9% off of its highs. The DJIA projects to at least 9550 based on what I see now. To this point I don't see any real concern by the street on this move and until we do this move will continue.
The Oil stocks are reporting earnings and are better than expected. The pattern for stocks now is to report "good" earnings and to then sell off hard. I bought ERY 11.50which is triple short oil stocks today.
The beat goes on ....Mikey
These are lagging the GDX 44 which flashed its signal at 47 last Tuesday. The DJIA has also given a short term sell signal today along with the strength in the Dollar. The Dollar index for all of the negative talk is at 76.45 which is at a 2 week high.
The Transportation average broke last Thursday and is now 9% off of its highs. The DJIA projects to at least 9550 based on what I see now. To this point I don't see any real concern by the street on this move and until we do this move will continue.
The Oil stocks are reporting earnings and are better than expected. The pattern for stocks now is to report "good" earnings and to then sell off hard. I bought ERY 11.50which is triple short oil stocks today.
The beat goes on ....Mikey
Monday, October 26, 2009
News from the experts "Stocks Pulling Back"
DJIA 9881 -81 SPX 1070 -8.80 VIX 24.07 +1.82 Gold 1047 -9.40 Silver 17.31 -.40 Oil 78.61 -1.89 RBOB (Whsl Gasoline)203.25 -.01 Dollar Index 76.04 +.44 EURO 1.4864 -.0140 UNCH Long Term Gov Bonds) 94.16 -.78 IEF (7-10 Yr Gov Bonds)90.91 -.30 XLK (Tech)21.19 -.13 XLE(Oil Index)57.31 -.91 XLF Financials Index)14.80 -.30 XHB (Homebuilders Index)14.85 -.18 EEM (Emerging Markets)40.35 -.41 FXI (China Index)44.07 -.29 GDX (Gold Miners Index)44.78 -1.85
The market is down and the experts are using the term pull back to describe it. That is a very nice way to put it. It does not scare the players who will be looking to buy something like a pull back but would not want to hold or buy a crash. In other words they don't believe that this is the start of something big.
That is the term they use at the beginning of a big sell off. I am getting short term sell signals on just about everything now. It is too early to say that this is the top but I see lots of stocks getting murdered now and that has not hit the big averages yet.
This pull back looks like something bigger to me than the picture they are painting. I am guessing that it will back and fill on a daily basis so that neither the shorts or longs will not get a good grip on what is happening.
Mikey
The market is down and the experts are using the term pull back to describe it. That is a very nice way to put it. It does not scare the players who will be looking to buy something like a pull back but would not want to hold or buy a crash. In other words they don't believe that this is the start of something big.
That is the term they use at the beginning of a big sell off. I am getting short term sell signals on just about everything now. It is too early to say that this is the top but I see lots of stocks getting murdered now and that has not hit the big averages yet.
This pull back looks like something bigger to me than the picture they are painting. I am guessing that it will back and fill on a daily basis so that neither the shorts or longs will not get a good grip on what is happening.
Mikey
Friday, October 23, 2009
Of lies and liars and the friends they keep
Laid on the following shorts...CAT 58.37 AAPL 204.17 FCX 82.39 AXP 35.60
I am seeing more and more breakout reverse. These breakouts are reversing with a vengeance. The DJIA with its CAT, AAPL, AXP, MSFT posting "great earnings" is masking other weakness I am seeing. I suspect that this "breakout" in the DJIA is also going to reverse also. The Transports have already dropped 6% in 2 days.
These most recent earnings reports by the big name stocks are without a doubt fabrications. They remind me of the earnings of the housing stocks in Jan 2006. I was short these stocks at that time and could not believe that those companies were coming in with such great earnings even though I saw big deterioration in the housing industry.
I remember seeing the CEO of KBH and BZH on CNBC telling us that everything was OK and their business had slowed but they were forecasting good earnings for the next year. That blew my mind because I knew it was a lie and thought they could keep making that stuff up forever. It was tough to stay short when you feel the game is rigged so badly that they can stand up in front of the camera and lie and no one calls them on it. CNBC has never gone back and interviewed the CEO's of those home builders that came on TV in 2006 and looked into the camera and lied.
I also remember that Jim Cramer was on telling us that he had told us 3 months earlier to buy the housing stocks and see what great earnings that they had had. That was also tough to take but I have learned that is the way the game is played.
The CEO of CAT was just on touting his great earnings and saying next year looks good. He is not only lying about his earnings he is lying about next year. Cramer is on telling us that he told us to buy in June and that we have turned the corner. The next time you see the CEO of CAT interviewed..assuming he has not retired...will be to tell us that things are bad and he sees no way out. That will be in the middle of next year.
That is the setup I see now. They have done nothing to help the consumer in fact they are DELIBERATELY trying to slow the economy down now. The next year is a disaster for the economy and they fricking know it. This is their last chance to get out of their stock and they are selling as they tell the public that everything is going to be OK.
That is the way it works. I do not expect you to believe this now but at least remember this blog and pay attention to what happens from here on.
Bought ZSL 4.69 looks really ready
The beat goes on ....Mikey
I am seeing more and more breakout reverse. These breakouts are reversing with a vengeance. The DJIA with its CAT, AAPL, AXP, MSFT posting "great earnings" is masking other weakness I am seeing. I suspect that this "breakout" in the DJIA is also going to reverse also. The Transports have already dropped 6% in 2 days.
These most recent earnings reports by the big name stocks are without a doubt fabrications. They remind me of the earnings of the housing stocks in Jan 2006. I was short these stocks at that time and could not believe that those companies were coming in with such great earnings even though I saw big deterioration in the housing industry.
I remember seeing the CEO of KBH and BZH on CNBC telling us that everything was OK and their business had slowed but they were forecasting good earnings for the next year. That blew my mind because I knew it was a lie and thought they could keep making that stuff up forever. It was tough to stay short when you feel the game is rigged so badly that they can stand up in front of the camera and lie and no one calls them on it. CNBC has never gone back and interviewed the CEO's of those home builders that came on TV in 2006 and looked into the camera and lied.
I also remember that Jim Cramer was on telling us that he had told us 3 months earlier to buy the housing stocks and see what great earnings that they had had. That was also tough to take but I have learned that is the way the game is played.
The CEO of CAT was just on touting his great earnings and saying next year looks good. He is not only lying about his earnings he is lying about next year. Cramer is on telling us that he told us to buy in June and that we have turned the corner. The next time you see the CEO of CAT interviewed..assuming he has not retired...will be to tell us that things are bad and he sees no way out. That will be in the middle of next year.
That is the setup I see now. They have done nothing to help the consumer in fact they are DELIBERATELY trying to slow the economy down now. The next year is a disaster for the economy and they fricking know it. This is their last chance to get out of their stock and they are selling as they tell the public that everything is going to be OK.
That is the way it works. I do not expect you to believe this now but at least remember this blog and pay attention to what happens from here on.
Bought ZSL 4.69 looks really ready
The beat goes on ....Mikey
Thursday, October 22, 2009
Breakout. Breakout, Breakout
First Gold broke out above 1000 on 9/11, Then the market broke out above 10000 on 10/14 then oil broke out above 80 on 10/15 and the Euro broke out above 150 on 10/21.The Gold break out is now at 1059 a month later after much hype about the dollar falling. It is down 5.10 at 1059.40 today and the GDX Gold miners index which broke out on 9/8 or 3 days before Gold broke 1000, is now 47.12 or lower than it was on 9/8. If you would have bought a Gold stock on 9/8 you are not making money.
Gold and the miners are showing weakness relative to the others. I said before that I believe that Gold is the leader in this rotation and it is now fading into the woodwork as they focus attention on the market and the dollar. If Gold slips under 1000 with the focus still on the market that will be a great indicator. If it does this into dollar weakness the players will buy the pullback. As it is now the miners are weaker than Gold and a move below 45 would reverse the breakout.
Stay tuned...Mikey
Gold and the miners are showing weakness relative to the others. I said before that I believe that Gold is the leader in this rotation and it is now fading into the woodwork as they focus attention on the market and the dollar. If Gold slips under 1000 with the focus still on the market that will be a great indicator. If it does this into dollar weakness the players will buy the pullback. As it is now the miners are weaker than Gold and a move below 45 would reverse the breakout.
Stay tuned...Mikey
US Verses Foreign Economies and Currency Fluctuations
The US economy is the lead dog. Our consumer is still the engine that pulls the world economy. A good measurement of the strength of the world economy is the US balance of trade deficit, This deficit peaked out in the middle of last year at about 80 billion per month. It is currently running at about 20 billion a month. That is telling us that our consumer is slowing way down and exports coming into the US are slowing way down.
The story is now that the world economy is going to turn back up without a recession. The weak dollar is "telling" us that their economies are stronger. The true story is that the dollar is going down because the US is being very proactive in dealing with the weak economy and the rest of the world is sitting on its hands waiting for Uncle Sugar to bail them out.
The truth as I see it is that at some point the rest of the world will have a crash just like we did last year. They will then start doing what we have been doing since last October. That is when the dollar takes off. The fact that the trade balance deficit is falling so sharply means that the Dollar is way undervalued now not overvalued as they are telling you in the media.
There is a big lag between the world economy and ours. The rest of the world is geared up to sell to a US economy that is no longer there. The US is pumping money into the financial institutions but has done nothing to help the consumer. The US economy is going to double dip and when it does the rest of the world will not have anyone to sell to.
Real Estate was in the same condition in early 2006. It had peaked in mid 2005 but in 2006 activity was slowing. The word was that everything was going to come back but the FED had done nothing to help the markets. The results were predictable a crash in real estate and a resulting crash in the financial institutions that was dependant on them.
I believe that the financial institutions that financed the world economy over the past 10 years are where our banks were in 2007. They are extended and cannot handle a slowdown now. In other words, it is a house of cards waiting to happen. When it does they will have to do the same thing the US has been doing for the past year.
The bottom line is that being long the foreign markets and commodities and Gold and short the Dollar is like being long Real estate in the US in early 2006. That is not what the system is putting out in the media. The message is to buy Gold, Oil, Foreign bonds, Commodities and sell the dollar. The public is buying into that message in a big way now. To confirm this just as 100 people what they think of the Dollar now. I promise you NOT ONE will tell you it is going up.
That message could not be more wrong!
The beat goes on ....Mikey
The story is now that the world economy is going to turn back up without a recession. The weak dollar is "telling" us that their economies are stronger. The true story is that the dollar is going down because the US is being very proactive in dealing with the weak economy and the rest of the world is sitting on its hands waiting for Uncle Sugar to bail them out.
The truth as I see it is that at some point the rest of the world will have a crash just like we did last year. They will then start doing what we have been doing since last October. That is when the dollar takes off. The fact that the trade balance deficit is falling so sharply means that the Dollar is way undervalued now not overvalued as they are telling you in the media.
There is a big lag between the world economy and ours. The rest of the world is geared up to sell to a US economy that is no longer there. The US is pumping money into the financial institutions but has done nothing to help the consumer. The US economy is going to double dip and when it does the rest of the world will not have anyone to sell to.
Real Estate was in the same condition in early 2006. It had peaked in mid 2005 but in 2006 activity was slowing. The word was that everything was going to come back but the FED had done nothing to help the markets. The results were predictable a crash in real estate and a resulting crash in the financial institutions that was dependant on them.
I believe that the financial institutions that financed the world economy over the past 10 years are where our banks were in 2007. They are extended and cannot handle a slowdown now. In other words, it is a house of cards waiting to happen. When it does they will have to do the same thing the US has been doing for the past year.
The bottom line is that being long the foreign markets and commodities and Gold and short the Dollar is like being long Real estate in the US in early 2006. That is not what the system is putting out in the media. The message is to buy Gold, Oil, Foreign bonds, Commodities and sell the dollar. The public is buying into that message in a big way now. To confirm this just as 100 people what they think of the Dollar now. I promise you NOT ONE will tell you it is going up.
That message could not be more wrong!
The beat goes on ....Mikey
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Apple, Cat blow away earnings...Top near
I mentioned yesterday that I am seeing weakness spreading in the broader market. This weakness is early but is an indication that we are approaching some kind of a sell off. CAT and AAPL have announced blow off earnings. That will be the cover story as the public is lead to the "good news" and not shown the weakness.
The GDX is flashing a short term sell signal. The Euro is also getting hit hard this morning. I think CAT 59.01 and AAPL 198.71 are great shorts in here. They will problably hold them up several days but I think they are played out now.
The EWZ (Brazil) 72.76 is getting hit from its intital top of 77 yesterday on news that the they are going to raise taxes on foreign investment. 9 out of 10 times this will be denied by the country and the stock will rally back to a slightly higher high. Its the second sell off that you want to short not the first one. I am short this one at 66 and will short it again on the return to the top.
AAPL 199.05 +9.28 has returned to its pre market highs it hit in Dec 2007. It is my belief that in 1 year it will be a $40 stock.
I will post signals as I see them .
Todays GDX short term sell signal at 47.02
The beat goes on ...Mikey
The GDX is flashing a short term sell signal. The Euro is also getting hit hard this morning. I think CAT 59.01 and AAPL 198.71 are great shorts in here. They will problably hold them up several days but I think they are played out now.
The EWZ (Brazil) 72.76 is getting hit from its intital top of 77 yesterday on news that the they are going to raise taxes on foreign investment. 9 out of 10 times this will be denied by the country and the stock will rally back to a slightly higher high. Its the second sell off that you want to short not the first one. I am short this one at 66 and will short it again on the return to the top.
AAPL 199.05 +9.28 has returned to its pre market highs it hit in Dec 2007. It is my belief that in 1 year it will be a $40 stock.
I will post signals as I see them .
Todays GDX short term sell signal at 47.02
The beat goes on ...Mikey
Monday, October 19, 2009
Weakness and diverences emerging
DJIA 10100 +104 SPX 1098 +10.82 VIX 21.09 -.34 Gold 1061 +10.40 Silver 17.72 +.30 Oil 79.35 +.82 RBOB (Whsl Gasoline)1.98 +.0007 Dollar Index 75.51-.26 EURO 1.4939 + .0047 UNCH Long Term Gov Bonds) 95.98 +.43 IEF (7-10 Yr Gov Bonds)91.83 +.04 XLK (Tech)21.30 +.08 XLE(Oil Index)59.83 +.83 XLF Financials Index)15.27 +.05 15 XHB (Homebuilders Index)15.46 -.01 EEM (Emerging Markets)41.46 +.71 FXI (China Index)44.45 +1.28 GDX (Gold Miners Index)48.42 +.04
I am seeing weakness is some of the early groups emerging. More and more stocks are starting to reverse their breakouts. I also see the MACD diverging on Gold and the EURO. I think we are about as far as this move is going to carry us. I see the GDX running out of steam and the XHB homebuilders is flashing a sell signal now. The dollar is set up really well for a good sized rally now. Just like the Raiders were set up against the Eagles yesterday. ...Who would have known?
The beat goes on...Mikey
I am seeing weakness is some of the early groups emerging. More and more stocks are starting to reverse their breakouts. I also see the MACD diverging on Gold and the EURO. I think we are about as far as this move is going to carry us. I see the GDX running out of steam and the XHB homebuilders is flashing a sell signal now. The dollar is set up really well for a good sized rally now. Just like the Raiders were set up against the Eagles yesterday. ...Who would have known?
The beat goes on...Mikey
Thursday, October 15, 2009
Watch Gold here it is a leader
DJIA 10003 -13.62 SPX 1090 -1.16 VIX 21.90 -96 Gold 1061 -3.20 Silver 17.86 +.02 Oil 77.60 +2.42 RBOB (Whsl Gasoline)1.9555 +.098 Dollar Index 75.70 -.02 EURO 1.4912 UNCH Long Term Gov Bonds) 94.49 -.63 IEF (7-10 Yr Gov Bonds)91.31 -.35 XLK (Tech)21.29 -.07 XLE(Oil Index)59.06 +1.10 XLF Financials Index)15.58 -.15 XHB (Homebuilders Index)15.66 -.02 EEM (Emerging Markets)41.38 -.17 FXI (China Index)44.14 -.15 GDX (Gold Miners Index)48.43 -.70
Gold "broke out" above 1000 on 10/5. Since then it has had a move to 1070 and the public has taken the hook big. The market "broke out" 9 days later on Oct 14 and yesterday closed above 10000. I saw the break out on the evening news and on the front page of my newspaper today. I have had numerous people come up to me in the past 2 days rubbing it in for being short and asking me where is the sell off. It has been my experience that when they ask questions like that they will soon get the answer.
What I am looking at now is Gold which I see as a lead to the market. The dollar Gold relationship precedes the move in the equities. A close below the breakout at 1000 that would be interesting considering the bullish sentiment is at 70%. I would say a close below 980 would seal the deal. That would not be a good thing. The public has bought the story hook line and sinker and price weakness here is the end of it.
Today Oil is "breaking out" above 75 and is at 77. Just like Gold did on Oct 5Th. First Gold then the Market then Oil. It all makes sense doesn't it. This is after the blitz by the experts over the last 3 months to tell the Public that the economy is bottoming.
I had a person tell me that the economy was turning around because oil is rising and that means that there is greater demand and that means that the econmy is getting stronger. I all makes sense now and the markets have all broken out. The only problem is that the economy is still in the tank and the bottoming economy is in the minds of the investment bankers only. The pubic does not believe them but they want to believe and are investing as drunk leaving a bar would. They will wake up with a hangover and wonder what the hell they did.
The public has broken ranks and have started pouring money into high yield and muni bonds. They do not perceive any credit risk now. Just one year ago they sold these same things but earning 1/4% for 1 years has hurt them because their incomes have dropped and they need their investments to make them more money. The system is all to glad to unload the bonds they bought back last year when the public was told to sell them. Now they are being told to buy them and again IT ALL MAKES PERFECT SENSE.
My friends you will not read or see this anywhere because there is only money to be made by fleecing the public. I do not advertise or make any income from this blog. my only mission is to try and show my readers where is happening behind the scenes.
Sadly, only I can only help a small percentage of the people because the system is very good at what it does.
So lets keep our eyes peeled on Gold and see it if reverses as the Market gets all of the attention now.
The beat goes on....Mikey
Gold "broke out" above 1000 on 10/5. Since then it has had a move to 1070 and the public has taken the hook big. The market "broke out" 9 days later on Oct 14 and yesterday closed above 10000. I saw the break out on the evening news and on the front page of my newspaper today. I have had numerous people come up to me in the past 2 days rubbing it in for being short and asking me where is the sell off. It has been my experience that when they ask questions like that they will soon get the answer.
What I am looking at now is Gold which I see as a lead to the market. The dollar Gold relationship precedes the move in the equities. A close below the breakout at 1000 that would be interesting considering the bullish sentiment is at 70%. I would say a close below 980 would seal the deal. That would not be a good thing. The public has bought the story hook line and sinker and price weakness here is the end of it.
Today Oil is "breaking out" above 75 and is at 77. Just like Gold did on Oct 5Th. First Gold then the Market then Oil. It all makes sense doesn't it. This is after the blitz by the experts over the last 3 months to tell the Public that the economy is bottoming.
I had a person tell me that the economy was turning around because oil is rising and that means that there is greater demand and that means that the econmy is getting stronger. I all makes sense now and the markets have all broken out. The only problem is that the economy is still in the tank and the bottoming economy is in the minds of the investment bankers only. The pubic does not believe them but they want to believe and are investing as drunk leaving a bar would. They will wake up with a hangover and wonder what the hell they did.
The public has broken ranks and have started pouring money into high yield and muni bonds. They do not perceive any credit risk now. Just one year ago they sold these same things but earning 1/4% for 1 years has hurt them because their incomes have dropped and they need their investments to make them more money. The system is all to glad to unload the bonds they bought back last year when the public was told to sell them. Now they are being told to buy them and again IT ALL MAKES PERFECT SENSE.
My friends you will not read or see this anywhere because there is only money to be made by fleecing the public. I do not advertise or make any income from this blog. my only mission is to try and show my readers where is happening behind the scenes.
Sadly, only I can only help a small percentage of the people because the system is very good at what it does.
So lets keep our eyes peeled on Gold and see it if reverses as the Market gets all of the attention now.
The beat goes on....Mikey
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
Here is something to think about as DJIA nears 10000
DJIA 10016 +148 SPX 1091 +18.80 VIX 22.70 -.29 Gold 1061 -3.20 Silver 17.86 +.02 Oil 75.27 +1.27 RBOB (Whsl Gasoline)1.86 +.028 Dollar Index 75.66 -.50 EURO 1.4903 +.0083 Term Gov Bonds) 95.06 -1.49 IEF (7-10 Yr Gov Bonds)91.68 -.62 +.16 XLK (Tech)21.36 +.25 XLE(Oil Index)57.97 +.98 XLF Financials Index)15.71 +.50 XHB (Homebuilders Index)15.71 +.34 EEM (Emerging Markets)41.54 +1.29 FXI (China Index)44.24 +1.52 GDX (Gold Miners Index)49.13 -.06
Comments by Enzio von Pfeil, chief executive officer of EconomicClock.com
"There's going to be quite a bit of strong downward earnings revisions going forward, especially the outlook for 2010. And that's simply because the economic clock, of which we tell the economic time, suggests that the excess supply of goods (rising unemployment) is here to stay and you can't keep on making profits if unemployment keeps rising
The worst of the earnings results will come out of labor-intensive and consumer-led industries, according to von Pfeil.
"The key earnings surprises will be in those industries which cannot keep on cutting workers," he said. "In other words, the basic materials and the very labor-intensive industries, like the car industry that very much have already gone through their cost-cutting exercises."
The U.S. will have the worst earnings results, closely followed by Europe as problems in the housing sector and consumer sector remain. But von Pfeil warned that Asia will also be affected by the earnings news from the West.
"The U.S. will come in for major surprises because you do see that the mortgage problems persist. That means that consumption is going to remain low. That means that U.S. consumer stocks cannot fair very well, particularly at the discretionary end of the stick," von Pfeil said. "(Another) region to do very poorly will be over-taxed Europe where the politicians managed to have taxed away any shred of work incentive."
"It is going to be very much in the West that you see these downward surprises," he said. "But again because of technology, it's the inter-connectedness of markets that is going to make those downward earnings revisions in the U.S. and in Europe, particularly in the consumer sectors ripple through and affect Asian market sentiment."
Von Pfeil predicted a "muted jobless recovery coming through."
China Won't Save Us
Another reason for von Pfeil's bearish prediction is that he has a "feeling that there may be some kind of a knee-jerk policy response in China. Given China's global role, could very well lead to some very severe downward market surprises."
"I do think that the Chinese growth story is a little bit of a tin drum that is understandably made to look very good," he said, adding that he doesn't believe so much in the positive growth numbers and outlook for China as he sees labor costs rising.
"I don't believe that China, with a per capita income that is a fraction of America's, is actually going to pull the world out of recession," he said.
Comments by Enzio von Pfeil, chief executive officer of EconomicClock.com
"There's going to be quite a bit of strong downward earnings revisions going forward, especially the outlook for 2010. And that's simply because the economic clock, of which we tell the economic time, suggests that the excess supply of goods (rising unemployment) is here to stay and you can't keep on making profits if unemployment keeps rising
The worst of the earnings results will come out of labor-intensive and consumer-led industries, according to von Pfeil.
"The key earnings surprises will be in those industries which cannot keep on cutting workers," he said. "In other words, the basic materials and the very labor-intensive industries, like the car industry that very much have already gone through their cost-cutting exercises."
The U.S. will have the worst earnings results, closely followed by Europe as problems in the housing sector and consumer sector remain. But von Pfeil warned that Asia will also be affected by the earnings news from the West.
"The U.S. will come in for major surprises because you do see that the mortgage problems persist. That means that consumption is going to remain low. That means that U.S. consumer stocks cannot fair very well, particularly at the discretionary end of the stick," von Pfeil said. "(Another) region to do very poorly will be over-taxed Europe where the politicians managed to have taxed away any shred of work incentive."
"It is going to be very much in the West that you see these downward surprises," he said. "But again because of technology, it's the inter-connectedness of markets that is going to make those downward earnings revisions in the U.S. and in Europe, particularly in the consumer sectors ripple through and affect Asian market sentiment."
Von Pfeil predicted a "muted jobless recovery coming through."
China Won't Save Us
Another reason for von Pfeil's bearish prediction is that he has a "feeling that there may be some kind of a knee-jerk policy response in China. Given China's global role, could very well lead to some very severe downward market surprises."
"I do think that the Chinese growth story is a little bit of a tin drum that is understandably made to look very good," he said, adding that he doesn't believe so much in the positive growth numbers and outlook for China as he sees labor costs rising.
"I don't believe that China, with a per capita income that is a fraction of America's, is actually going to pull the world out of recession," he said.
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
Gold Gold Gold....Sell Sell Sell the Dollar ...That is the message
From CNBC.com
Gold Hits New Record High as Dollar Slips
Gold rose to a record high at $1,063.60 an ounce on Tuesday as the dollar slipped against the euro, increasing the metal's appeal as an alternative asset.
Firmer oil prices and an improvement in physical demand for gold [US@GC.1 1059.9 3.2001 (+0.3%) ] after a sluggish year for jewellery buying are also lifting gold prices, analysts said.
Spot gold was bid at $1,062.70 an ounce at 0834 GMT against $1,055.25 late in New York on Monday.
Options-related activity also played a role in the euro's moves on Tuesday, with the currency's recent rebound to test September's high of $1.4842 fizzling out ahead of reported large options barriers and expiries at $1.4850.
Early trading in Europe was quiet and confined to narrow ranges, something which may change with the German ZEW investor sentiment survey at 0900 GMT and the latest batch of U.S. third quarter earnings when U.S. markets open.
"Risk perception remains an important topic in the absence of a cyclical trend out of the United States.
But I wouldn't expect any serious impact on the risk perception picture when liquidity remains very ample, so in this environment commodity currencies should continue to outperform," said Michael Klawitter, currency strategist at Commerzbank in Frankfurt.
Although U.S. central bank officials continue to warn of eventual policy tightening, this was only to put a lid on inflation expectations.
"They have to express a certain degree of hawkishness. But between that and actual action, there is a fairly large gap. Consequently, the dollar isn't getting any real meaningful support," Klawitter said.At 0750 GMT the dollar index, a measure of the greenback's value against six currencies, was up 0.15 percent on the day at 76.25, still within sight of its 14-month low of 75.767 struck last week.
Fed Speakers
The dollar was up a quarter of a percent against the yen [$$USDJPY 89.69 -0.10 (-0.11%) ]and was flat against the euro at $1.4765 per euro [EUR= 1.4836 0.0058 (+0.39%) ].
The Dollar Meeting Nobody Talks About
"We remain bullish on the yen crosses as we expect bond markets to remain under near-term selling pressure as equity markets move sharply higher," BNP Paribas said on Tuesday.
"Oil price and other commodity prices are rising as investors line up for everything which looks like an asset."
The New Zealand dollar [NZD= 0.7351 -0.0007 (-0.1%) ] was up almost half a percent while the Australian dollar, which earlier hit a 14-month high of $0.9094 [AUD= 0.9071 -0.0001 (-0.01%) ] eased back as dealers booked profits from the recent rise.
Sterling remained under selling pressure, with the euro hitting a fresh 6-month high of 93.89 pence as concerns about Britain's weak fiscal position outweighed positive data.
Although overall market activity was subdued, growth-linked and higher-yielding currencies such as the Aussie and the kiwi were supported ahead of more U.S. earnings this week.
The full court press is now going on. The little people know they should own Gold. I am hearing that the guy on the street is asking how he can buy Gold bars. It is like oil going to 200 when it was above 100. No way was oil going to go down. It did go to 148 but it went to 30 and is now 74. I still say when this is over Gold is going to 400 and when it does no one will believe it.
The most recent hype began on Sept 3 with all the experts recommending Gold. I blogged about this on that date. The public was exposed to the idea of buying Gold on that Day and Gold was 992 at that time. We are now 5 weeks past that time and the prices have validated that idea to the extent that the public wants to buy it. First the idea then the price confirmation. The deed is done. Price weakness from this level will not be believed and the boys can move it lower.
I bought the GLL (double Gold short) on 9/24 @ 12.79 it is now 11.31. I shorted the GDX (Gold Miners index) on 9/4 @ 45.04 it is now 49.50. My next short will come on price weakness when gold crosses below 980. I am obviously on the wrong side of this trade now as the trend is up strongly and Gold is breaking out. Don't try this at home.
The job of the Fed is to get the markets set up so they can do their thing. Right now the dollar is set up for a big move up. The extent of the move depends on the magnitude of the set up. How far they go determines the magnitude of the move they want. What I don't know is how big a move they want. The longer they set it up the bigger the move. Therefore, at some point I say wow I didn't think they would go that far and start taking a position because I know that the move is going to be a big one based on what I am hearing and seeing the public doing.
Why do this? Because I have been through this many times and I am confident of the outcome. I am also confident that I will probably get my butt kicked in the short run. That is the price of admission. I would say most people would not do what I do because there is pain involved. I have learned the more pain the more gain.
The beat goes on ...Mikey
Gold Hits New Record High as Dollar Slips
Gold rose to a record high at $1,063.60 an ounce on Tuesday as the dollar slipped against the euro, increasing the metal's appeal as an alternative asset.
Firmer oil prices and an improvement in physical demand for gold [US@GC.1 1059.9 3.2001 (+0.3%) ] after a sluggish year for jewellery buying are also lifting gold prices, analysts said.
Spot gold was bid at $1,062.70 an ounce at 0834 GMT against $1,055.25 late in New York on Monday.
Options-related activity also played a role in the euro's moves on Tuesday, with the currency's recent rebound to test September's high of $1.4842 fizzling out ahead of reported large options barriers and expiries at $1.4850.
Early trading in Europe was quiet and confined to narrow ranges, something which may change with the German ZEW investor sentiment survey at 0900 GMT and the latest batch of U.S. third quarter earnings when U.S. markets open.
"Risk perception remains an important topic in the absence of a cyclical trend out of the United States.
But I wouldn't expect any serious impact on the risk perception picture when liquidity remains very ample, so in this environment commodity currencies should continue to outperform," said Michael Klawitter, currency strategist at Commerzbank in Frankfurt.
Although U.S. central bank officials continue to warn of eventual policy tightening, this was only to put a lid on inflation expectations.
"They have to express a certain degree of hawkishness. But between that and actual action, there is a fairly large gap. Consequently, the dollar isn't getting any real meaningful support," Klawitter said.At 0750 GMT the dollar index, a measure of the greenback's value against six currencies, was up 0.15 percent on the day at 76.25, still within sight of its 14-month low of 75.767 struck last week.
Fed Speakers
The dollar was up a quarter of a percent against the yen [$$USDJPY 89.69 -0.10 (-0.11%) ]and was flat against the euro at $1.4765 per euro [EUR= 1.4836 0.0058 (+0.39%) ].
The Dollar Meeting Nobody Talks About
"We remain bullish on the yen crosses as we expect bond markets to remain under near-term selling pressure as equity markets move sharply higher," BNP Paribas said on Tuesday.
"Oil price and other commodity prices are rising as investors line up for everything which looks like an asset."
The New Zealand dollar [NZD= 0.7351 -0.0007 (-0.1%) ] was up almost half a percent while the Australian dollar, which earlier hit a 14-month high of $0.9094 [AUD= 0.9071 -0.0001 (-0.01%) ] eased back as dealers booked profits from the recent rise.
Sterling remained under selling pressure, with the euro hitting a fresh 6-month high of 93.89 pence as concerns about Britain's weak fiscal position outweighed positive data.
Although overall market activity was subdued, growth-linked and higher-yielding currencies such as the Aussie and the kiwi were supported ahead of more U.S. earnings this week.
The full court press is now going on. The little people know they should own Gold. I am hearing that the guy on the street is asking how he can buy Gold bars. It is like oil going to 200 when it was above 100. No way was oil going to go down. It did go to 148 but it went to 30 and is now 74. I still say when this is over Gold is going to 400 and when it does no one will believe it.
The most recent hype began on Sept 3 with all the experts recommending Gold. I blogged about this on that date. The public was exposed to the idea of buying Gold on that Day and Gold was 992 at that time. We are now 5 weeks past that time and the prices have validated that idea to the extent that the public wants to buy it. First the idea then the price confirmation. The deed is done. Price weakness from this level will not be believed and the boys can move it lower.
I bought the GLL (double Gold short) on 9/24 @ 12.79 it is now 11.31. I shorted the GDX (Gold Miners index) on 9/4 @ 45.04 it is now 49.50. My next short will come on price weakness when gold crosses below 980. I am obviously on the wrong side of this trade now as the trend is up strongly and Gold is breaking out. Don't try this at home.
The job of the Fed is to get the markets set up so they can do their thing. Right now the dollar is set up for a big move up. The extent of the move depends on the magnitude of the set up. How far they go determines the magnitude of the move they want. What I don't know is how big a move they want. The longer they set it up the bigger the move. Therefore, at some point I say wow I didn't think they would go that far and start taking a position because I know that the move is going to be a big one based on what I am hearing and seeing the public doing.
Why do this? Because I have been through this many times and I am confident of the outcome. I am also confident that I will probably get my butt kicked in the short run. That is the price of admission. I would say most people would not do what I do because there is pain involved. I have learned the more pain the more gain.
The beat goes on ...Mikey
Monday, October 12, 2009
The opposite of last Quarter
DJIA 9902 +37 SPX 1077 +6.03 VIX22.97 -.15 Gold 1058 +9.00 Silver 17.84 +.145 Oil 73.27 +1.50 RBOB (Whsl Gasoline)1.80 +.03 Dollar Index 76.29 -.33 EURO 1.4788 +.0081Long Term Gov Bonds) 95.98 .08 IEF (7-10 Yr Gov Bonds)91.98 +.16 XLK (Tech)21.09 +.07 16 XLE(Oil Index)57.14 +.98 XLF Financials Index)15.32 +.085 XHB (Homebuilders Index)15.16 +.02 EEM (Emerging Markets)40.26 +.41 FXI (China Index)42.72 -.18 GDX (Gold Miners Index)48.62 +.33
Going into the earnings season in July the market was selling off and worried about earnings. The analysts were talking about the market having a correction as the DJIA fell below 8200 on July 8Th. I remember I was short at the time and did not like the fact the the boys were on the same side of the fence. I also remember that alot of people were telling me that I was right. That is why on July 15Th I decided to cover my shorts and step aside for what I thought was going to be a 2 week rally.
In late August into early September, the market sold off from 9700 to 9250 as the experts worried about Sept which is supposed to be the worst month for stocks.That sell off reversed and we rallied most of September.
That rally is still going on and now approaching 3 months. We are now beginning the earnings season for the 3rd quarter and the market is at its highs and breaking out. The analysts are now not pessimistic but optimistic about this earnings season and AA reported great earnings last week to kick it all off.
My MACD a lagging trend indicator has made 2 lower peaks on the tops of Aug 25Th at 9862, and on Sept 23rd at 9916 and as we make this high the MACD is lower than it was on the Sept top. That indicates that market momentum is slowing. This is called a divergence and is present at all tops and bottoms. Such a divergence existed at the March bottom of this year. The prior low was hit in late October of last year.
The way this indicator works you first get the divergence and then it will cross the zero line which flashes the signal. The buy signal was on March 25Th at 7800. That signal came 1200 points off of the lows and at that time the experts did not believe the rally which is telling us that it is for real after all of the negative press the economy and the market had received for the prior 6 months. The whole thing is a process to get all the players on one side of the market. Price and time will accomplish this regardless of the realities of the economy at that time.
In my mind, The economy bottomed with the top in the bond market on January 22. The DJIA was at 8116 on Jan 22nd it ultimately bottomed on March 6th at 6476. So the DJIA continued to decline another 21% and 6 weeks past the time that the economy started growing.
I believe that the economy started to slow with the bottom of the Bond market on August 17Th with the DJIA at 9161. We are now at 9910 or we have rallied
8% past and 8 weeks longer than what I believe the top of the economy was on August 17th.
If I had to guess where we are now by comparison I would say we be where we were in the sell off in Late Feb. That is to say that I would think that we are within 2 or 3weeks from setting a top. The news background and the time this rally has taken is about right for this thing to top. When the MACD crosses Zero it will mean we have had a good sized hit. If this happens we will then take a look at the experts to see if they believe the hit. If they say buy the pullback then that would complete the top.
The beat goes on ....Mikey
Going into the earnings season in July the market was selling off and worried about earnings. The analysts were talking about the market having a correction as the DJIA fell below 8200 on July 8Th. I remember I was short at the time and did not like the fact the the boys were on the same side of the fence. I also remember that alot of people were telling me that I was right. That is why on July 15Th I decided to cover my shorts and step aside for what I thought was going to be a 2 week rally.
In late August into early September, the market sold off from 9700 to 9250 as the experts worried about Sept which is supposed to be the worst month for stocks.That sell off reversed and we rallied most of September.
That rally is still going on and now approaching 3 months. We are now beginning the earnings season for the 3rd quarter and the market is at its highs and breaking out. The analysts are now not pessimistic but optimistic about this earnings season and AA reported great earnings last week to kick it all off.
My MACD a lagging trend indicator has made 2 lower peaks on the tops of Aug 25Th at 9862, and on Sept 23rd at 9916 and as we make this high the MACD is lower than it was on the Sept top. That indicates that market momentum is slowing. This is called a divergence and is present at all tops and bottoms. Such a divergence existed at the March bottom of this year. The prior low was hit in late October of last year.
The way this indicator works you first get the divergence and then it will cross the zero line which flashes the signal. The buy signal was on March 25Th at 7800. That signal came 1200 points off of the lows and at that time the experts did not believe the rally which is telling us that it is for real after all of the negative press the economy and the market had received for the prior 6 months. The whole thing is a process to get all the players on one side of the market. Price and time will accomplish this regardless of the realities of the economy at that time.
In my mind, The economy bottomed with the top in the bond market on January 22. The DJIA was at 8116 on Jan 22nd it ultimately bottomed on March 6th at 6476. So the DJIA continued to decline another 21% and 6 weeks past the time that the economy started growing.
I believe that the economy started to slow with the bottom of the Bond market on August 17Th with the DJIA at 9161. We are now at 9910 or we have rallied
8% past and 8 weeks longer than what I believe the top of the economy was on August 17th.
If I had to guess where we are now by comparison I would say we be where we were in the sell off in Late Feb. That is to say that I would think that we are within 2 or 3weeks from setting a top. The news background and the time this rally has taken is about right for this thing to top. When the MACD crosses Zero it will mean we have had a good sized hit. If this happens we will then take a look at the experts to see if they believe the hit. If they say buy the pullback then that would complete the top.
The beat goes on ....Mikey
Friday, October 9, 2009
Ground Hog Day
Every day is the same now grinding out to new highs. I have people in my face now about the sell off so that is a good thing. It always happens. The dollar showed strength the AM on comments of Fed Chairman about raising rates. The Euro is down but basically no one believes him and they just keep shorting the dollar on rallies.
No new trades ....Mikey
No new trades ....Mikey
Thursday, October 8, 2009
Putting lipstick on a pig
DJIA 9817 +98.90 SPX 1069 +11.48 VIX 24.11 -.57 Gold 1055 +11.20 Silver 17.79 +.29 Oil 71.47 +1.90 RBOB (Whsl Gasoline)1.77 +.056 Dollar Index 76.14 -.52 EURO 1.4772 +.0104 (Long Term Gov Bonds) 99.37 +.18 IEF (7-10 Yr Gov Bonds)93.08 +.03 XLK (Tech)20.91 +.16 XLE(Oil Index)56.01 +.17 XLF Financials Index)15.26 +.17 XHB (Homebuilders Index)15.14 +.59 EEM (Emerging Markets)39.81 +.47 FXI (China Index)42.87 +.85 GDX (Gold Miners Index)49.15 +1.29
Here is a summary of Alcoas great earning report:
The maker of aluminum products and component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average reported a surprise profit of 4 cents a share in the third quarter, excluding one-time items, compared with a profit of 37 cents a share in the same period last year.
Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected Alcoa to report a loss of 9 cents a share.
Sales reached $4.62 billion in the most recent quarter, below the $7.234 billion from this time last year, but ahead of analysts' $4.551 billion forecast.
OK earning declined from .37 to .04 and revenue declined from 7.24 billion to 4.62 billion and that is great news? That is putting lipstick on a pig
Also today:
The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless insurance fell more-than-expected to a nine-month low last week, data showed, suggesting the labor market was healing despite a setback in September.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 33,000 to a seasonally adjusted 521,000 in the week ended Oct. 3, the lowest level since early January, the Labor Department said on Thursday.
Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast new claims slipping to 540,000 last week from a previously reported 551,000. A Labor Department official said seasonal factors expected a decline in new claims at the end of a quarter and a rise at the start of a new quarter.
So the analysts had expected 540000 and got 521000. Those are numbers that scream recovery? Again putting lipstick on a pig.
I can hardly wait for the "much better than expected" GDP numbers and all of the rest of the better than expected earnings to come in.
The beat goes on ....Mikey
Here is a summary of Alcoas great earning report:
The maker of aluminum products and component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average reported a surprise profit of 4 cents a share in the third quarter, excluding one-time items, compared with a profit of 37 cents a share in the same period last year.
Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected Alcoa to report a loss of 9 cents a share.
Sales reached $4.62 billion in the most recent quarter, below the $7.234 billion from this time last year, but ahead of analysts' $4.551 billion forecast.
OK earning declined from .37 to .04 and revenue declined from 7.24 billion to 4.62 billion and that is great news? That is putting lipstick on a pig
Also today:
The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless insurance fell more-than-expected to a nine-month low last week, data showed, suggesting the labor market was healing despite a setback in September.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 33,000 to a seasonally adjusted 521,000 in the week ended Oct. 3, the lowest level since early January, the Labor Department said on Thursday.
Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast new claims slipping to 540,000 last week from a previously reported 551,000. A Labor Department official said seasonal factors expected a decline in new claims at the end of a quarter and a rise at the start of a new quarter.
So the analysts had expected 540000 and got 521000. Those are numbers that scream recovery? Again putting lipstick on a pig.
I can hardly wait for the "much better than expected" GDP numbers and all of the rest of the better than expected earnings to come in.
The beat goes on ....Mikey
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
A close below 9400 should seal the deal
DJIA 9697 -33 SPX 1054 -.58 VIX 24.83 -.87 Gold 1044 +4.30 Silver 14.79 +.195 Oil 69.63 -1.25 RBOB (Whsl Gasoline)1.72 -.05 Dollar Index 76.68 +.185 EURO 1.4666 -.0043 (Long Term Gov Bonds) 99.23 +1.23 IEF (7-10 Yr Gov Bonds)92.46 -.49XLK (Tech)20.71 -.08 XLE(Oil Index)54.55 +.17 XLF Financials Index)15.00 +.07 XHB (Homebuilders Index)14.46 -.23 EEM (Emerging Markets)39.24 -..14 FXI (China Index)41.94 +.41 GDX (Gold Miners Index)47.69 +.11
The market is trading tick for tick with the EURO. The EURO goes up and the market goes up. The EURO goes down and the Market goes down. It has deteriorated into a commodity play. The economy at this point has nothing to do with the daily swings. Then along comes every expert in the world and tells us that the dollar is going to hell in a hand basket. I guess you could put 1 and 1 together and figure out which way the market is going to go if you knew that the dollar was going to keep going down.
If you read this blog you know that when 1+1=2 keep your head down. It equals 2 big time now and that is dangerous for the longs. We could continue to play this game a bit longer but what we want to look for is a change in trend that is different than their story. I will say to me this change will come if the DJIA closes below 9400 and the EURO closes below 144.
I do not think at this point this they will change their story and that the crowd which has been trained to buy the pullback will do so. If they do then this thing has had it. I will add on to my shorts if that happens.
The beat goes on...Mikey
The market is trading tick for tick with the EURO. The EURO goes up and the market goes up. The EURO goes down and the Market goes down. It has deteriorated into a commodity play. The economy at this point has nothing to do with the daily swings. Then along comes every expert in the world and tells us that the dollar is going to hell in a hand basket. I guess you could put 1 and 1 together and figure out which way the market is going to go if you knew that the dollar was going to keep going down.
If you read this blog you know that when 1+1=2 keep your head down. It equals 2 big time now and that is dangerous for the longs. We could continue to play this game a bit longer but what we want to look for is a change in trend that is different than their story. I will say to me this change will come if the DJIA closes below 9400 and the EURO closes below 144.
I do not think at this point this they will change their story and that the crowd which has been trained to buy the pullback will do so. If they do then this thing has had it. I will add on to my shorts if that happens.
The beat goes on...Mikey
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
In Your Face Rally...Dollar weakness = World Growth
DJIA 9753 +153 SPX 1058 +17.88 VIX 25.49 -1.35 Gold 1041 +23.80 Silver 17.36 +82 Oil 71.62 +1.21 RBOB (Whsl Gasoline)1.79 +.03 Dollar Index 76.37 -.46 EURO1.4736 +.0076 (Long Term Gov Bonds) 98.03 -.99 IEF (7-10 Yr Gov Bonds)92.46 -.49 XLK (Tech)20.75 +.33 XLE(Oil Index)54.64 +1.52 XLF Financials Index)15.03 +.29 XHB (Homebuilders Index)14.78 +.28 EEM (Emerging Markets)39.62 +.88 FXI (China Index)41.83 +1.36 GDX (Gold Miners Index)47.77 +3.21
Last weeks economic numbers have faded into the distant past and that only took 2 days. Forget about unemployment in the US the world is growing who cares. That is is message today. This is the same message they gave us going into the top in 2008. Remember China and the emerging markets and commodities and oil. That is the same recording they are playing now. It will have the same outcome as it did then because it is a bald faced lie.
I am hearing a lot of public talk from very respected money people that the dollar is going to be replaced as the world currency, They are talking about the EURO replacing the dollar. The world bank president mentioned this last week and I also saw that Bill Gross mentioned that the dollar will not rally anytime soon.
The Dollar is in the spotlight and it is near its lows again. The trashing of the dollar has been going on for a long time now and basically it has moved very little from a year ago and is gained ground against the EURO over the past year and one half. My position is still that the dollar is going to be strong against the EURO because the Europeans have done little to support their economy and it will fall faster than ours.
The whole market play is based on a weak dollar. It is an easy conclusion to believe that the dollar is going lower. I would say that if I took a survey I would not find one person who thought the dollar was going to rally. In fact, I would think that they would just laugh at the question. That was the case in May 2008 when the EURO was 1.60 vs the dollar and on the stock market hit went to 1.24 vs the dollar. The EURO is now 1.47 vs the dollar so even with all this hype that the dollar is going down it is still higher than the EURO was in May of 2008.
I'll bet that would come as a surprise to everyone who has been listening to the press dollar bashing for the past 6 months. I think that some big event is going to happen that will send the money back into the dollar. It will be something that will be a flight to safety thing. It will also come out of the blue and no one will see it coming.
No trades today holding shorts looking to short more Gold and Oil
The beat goes on ...Mikey
Last weeks economic numbers have faded into the distant past and that only took 2 days. Forget about unemployment in the US the world is growing who cares. That is is message today. This is the same message they gave us going into the top in 2008. Remember China and the emerging markets and commodities and oil. That is the same recording they are playing now. It will have the same outcome as it did then because it is a bald faced lie.
I am hearing a lot of public talk from very respected money people that the dollar is going to be replaced as the world currency, They are talking about the EURO replacing the dollar. The world bank president mentioned this last week and I also saw that Bill Gross mentioned that the dollar will not rally anytime soon.
The Dollar is in the spotlight and it is near its lows again. The trashing of the dollar has been going on for a long time now and basically it has moved very little from a year ago and is gained ground against the EURO over the past year and one half. My position is still that the dollar is going to be strong against the EURO because the Europeans have done little to support their economy and it will fall faster than ours.
The whole market play is based on a weak dollar. It is an easy conclusion to believe that the dollar is going lower. I would say that if I took a survey I would not find one person who thought the dollar was going to rally. In fact, I would think that they would just laugh at the question. That was the case in May 2008 when the EURO was 1.60 vs the dollar and on the stock market hit went to 1.24 vs the dollar. The EURO is now 1.47 vs the dollar so even with all this hype that the dollar is going down it is still higher than the EURO was in May of 2008.
I'll bet that would come as a surprise to everyone who has been listening to the press dollar bashing for the past 6 months. I think that some big event is going to happen that will send the money back into the dollar. It will be something that will be a flight to safety thing. It will also come out of the blue and no one will see it coming.
No trades today holding shorts looking to short more Gold and Oil
The beat goes on ...Mikey
Monday, October 5, 2009
Bad News ...Market rally????
DJIA 9598 +111 SPX 1040 +15
That is the way the game is played. If we were to have sold off on the bad employment number the crowd may have turned bearish and sold. That is not what the boys want here. Remember when 1+1 = 2 then the crowd moves. This action does not add up so the crowd does not change their behavior.
The action is good here for the shorts. The next bit of bad news and there is alot of it coming will make the shorts cover for fear of another rally.
The game is to keep the longs in and not fear the sell offs and get the shorts to cover on the way down on bad news. I think that process has begun.
The beat goes on....Mikey
That is the way the game is played. If we were to have sold off on the bad employment number the crowd may have turned bearish and sold. That is not what the boys want here. Remember when 1+1 = 2 then the crowd moves. This action does not add up so the crowd does not change their behavior.
The action is good here for the shorts. The next bit of bad news and there is alot of it coming will make the shorts cover for fear of another rally.
The game is to keep the longs in and not fear the sell offs and get the shorts to cover on the way down on bad news. I think that process has begun.
The beat goes on....Mikey
Friday, October 2, 2009
Bad Employment numbers spoil the party
DJIA 9487 -21.91 SPX 1025 -4.66
Bad jobs numbers today but no real sell off, that was yesterday. They gave you the sell off a day in advance. That way the traders who got short yesterday expecting bad numbers because of the weak action then saw the bad numbers and did not get paid for it.
My guess is that the shorts got frustrated and covered today when there was no follow through. Being short I am glad that 1+1 is not 2. When price and news move together expect a reversal. We are at the 50 average on a lot of stocks now. Normally a place they bounce. Also we are 2 weeks until expiration and maybe some puts bit on this sell off.
I did not cover any positions on this hit yet.
Next week I will blog about some interesting comments I saw from Bill Gross and the head of the world bank.
The beat goes on .....Mikey
Bad jobs numbers today but no real sell off, that was yesterday. They gave you the sell off a day in advance. That way the traders who got short yesterday expecting bad numbers because of the weak action then saw the bad numbers and did not get paid for it.
My guess is that the shorts got frustrated and covered today when there was no follow through. Being short I am glad that 1+1 is not 2. When price and news move together expect a reversal. We are at the 50 average on a lot of stocks now. Normally a place they bounce. Also we are 2 weeks until expiration and maybe some puts bit on this sell off.
I did not cover any positions on this hit yet.
Next week I will blog about some interesting comments I saw from Bill Gross and the head of the world bank.
The beat goes on .....Mikey
Thursday, October 1, 2009
What I can do, What I can't do and when I do it
DJIA 9570 -146 SPX 1038 -18.63 VIX 27.41 +1.80 Gold 1003 -6.40 Silver 16.53 -.128Oil 69.69 -.92 RBOB (Whsl Gasoline)1.73 -.02 Dollar Index 77.351 +.475 EURO 1.4541 -.0104 (Long Term Gov Bonds)99.39 +.73 IEF (7-10 Yr Gov Bonds)92.64 +.27 XLK (Tech)20.40 -.47 XLE(Oil Index)52.88 -1.04 XLF Financials Index)14.62 -.32 XHB (Homebuilders Index)14.46 -.57 EEM (Emerging Markets)38.03 -.88 FXI (China Index)10.26 +.46 GDX (Gold Miners Index)43.76 -1.56
I have three choices I can make. I can be long the market, I can be in cash or out of the market, or I can be short the market.
When I am Long the message to the public is that stocks are bad and the prices are reflecting that story. What I know is that the prices I pay will be winners. What I don't know is how far the system will go to get that message to the public and where they will act. In other words, I can not predict the extent of any move. I also don't care. The lower the prices go the greater the opportunity and the bigger the position I get. I know that the prices will go to a level that blows my mind so I am careful to buy small positions when I start.
When I am out I feel that the prices are in line with reality and the system is telling the public to get in. I have a hard time being on the same side of the fence with the Cramers of the world because they are just cheap whores hired by the system to pimp the stock market. During that phase stocks are easy trades and the public is drawn in. I will stage out and ALWAYS LEAVE MONEY ON THE TABLE.
I will be short when I think the story is ridiculous relative to the reality of the economy and the prices I am seeing. I also see the public playing and making easy money and react to the prices with amazement. In other words, it is just stupid. Again, when I start I will take small positions and add on when I think prices reach higher levels of absurdity.
I never can predict how stupid it will get be or how long it will take but I know that in each cycle it will get to that level.It is not my intention to predict the magnitude of any price move but to make one of those 3 choices. What I am saying I am never going to know where the top or bottom is but once I take a position I don't quit.
I am now shorting. I believe that the Fed either wants a depression or that they are in complete denial. The consumer is toast and without him the economy and the market are toast. That is at a time that the public is being told that we are going to be OK. I think the real level of prices for market should be 6000 and not 9500. That will happen sooner or later. Is this the top? Is 10000 the top is 12000 the top I do not know but I know these are good prices to short at. Will the employment number be good tomorrow and the market be up 200 points I don't know that one either but I like shorting at these prices because in the long run they are winners.
If I had to guess about tomarrow I would say the numbers would be better than expected and the market will be up big. That is of no concern to me at this point but that is my guess for what it is worth.
Shorted EWZ today @ 66.55
I hope that clarifies my approach.
The beat goes on...Mikey
I have three choices I can make. I can be long the market, I can be in cash or out of the market, or I can be short the market.
When I am Long the message to the public is that stocks are bad and the prices are reflecting that story. What I know is that the prices I pay will be winners. What I don't know is how far the system will go to get that message to the public and where they will act. In other words, I can not predict the extent of any move. I also don't care. The lower the prices go the greater the opportunity and the bigger the position I get. I know that the prices will go to a level that blows my mind so I am careful to buy small positions when I start.
When I am out I feel that the prices are in line with reality and the system is telling the public to get in. I have a hard time being on the same side of the fence with the Cramers of the world because they are just cheap whores hired by the system to pimp the stock market. During that phase stocks are easy trades and the public is drawn in. I will stage out and ALWAYS LEAVE MONEY ON THE TABLE.
I will be short when I think the story is ridiculous relative to the reality of the economy and the prices I am seeing. I also see the public playing and making easy money and react to the prices with amazement. In other words, it is just stupid. Again, when I start I will take small positions and add on when I think prices reach higher levels of absurdity.
I never can predict how stupid it will get be or how long it will take but I know that in each cycle it will get to that level.It is not my intention to predict the magnitude of any price move but to make one of those 3 choices. What I am saying I am never going to know where the top or bottom is but once I take a position I don't quit.
I am now shorting. I believe that the Fed either wants a depression or that they are in complete denial. The consumer is toast and without him the economy and the market are toast. That is at a time that the public is being told that we are going to be OK. I think the real level of prices for market should be 6000 and not 9500. That will happen sooner or later. Is this the top? Is 10000 the top is 12000 the top I do not know but I know these are good prices to short at. Will the employment number be good tomorrow and the market be up 200 points I don't know that one either but I like shorting at these prices because in the long run they are winners.
If I had to guess about tomarrow I would say the numbers would be better than expected and the market will be up big. That is of no concern to me at this point but that is my guess for what it is worth.
Shorted EWZ today @ 66.55
I hope that clarifies my approach.
The beat goes on...Mikey
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