Posting Times

Posts will be between 8:30 PM to 10:00 PM PST
Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Friday, March 30, 2012

US market ends quarter in uptrend

News Highlights


World markets and commodities including oil are weaker than the US market. China and Brazil are now in downtrends. The interesting thing is that the dollar continues to be soft. Maybe its the need to prop up Europe and the bailout there that is keeping pressure on the dollar.  The US market at end the week and the first quarter are in a uptrend with oil and commodities weakening.  The story is one of a weakening world economy and a strengthening US economy. Most major groups are up with Gold, Mining, and energy in downtrends. 

Mikey

Key Indicators

Current trading range: 12750 -13252 DJI Close 13212.04 +66.22  
MACD Crosses: Negative cross = consolidation/correction Positive cross=uptrend
Short term (50 hour) Up  (11 Hrs) ...signal 3-30
MACD  Hourly +13.75 Current trend (50 day) Up (84 days)...signal 12-2-11 12019
MACD Daily (+86.10 ),Negative cross 3-22 MACD Divergence in progress
Intermediate trend (50 week) Up (17 weeks)...signal 12-5-11 12294
MACD Weekly (+361.90), Positive cross 10-24-11 
Long term trend (50 month) Up (16 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
MACD Monthly (+555.16) Positive Cross 9-1-09
IBD Current trend Up (70 days) Uptrend under pressure 13126  3/28
Volume(Millions) NYSE 992 NASDAQ 1742
Advance/Decline NYSE +470 NASDAQ -187
Mikey NYSE A/D line 50483 Mikey NASDAQ A/D line -5511
New Highs NYSE 118 NASDAQ 94 New Lows NYSE 17 NASDAQ 17
Overbought/Oversold (+100 overbought/-100 oversold)
Mikey5 +3 N, Mikey10 -8 N, Mikey20 +24 N, Mikey50 +104 OB
% Stocks above 200 day ave 77% (above 50% uptrend)
Trader Psychology
Put/Call day .85, 10 day .88,  Put Premium .76 10 day .66,  
Bull/Bear Ratio 2.21 Bulls 50.5%, Bears 22.6%
Mutial Funds Buy/Redeem ratio 1.18
VIX 15.50 VXZ 45.70 Mikey Fear 98 (80 Low 20 High) 

Averages (uptrend 20>50)
20 hour 13222 Falling/ Price above
50 hour 13070  Falling /Price above
20 day 13089 Flat/Price above
50 day 12941 Rising /Price above
20 week 12539 Rising/ Price above
50 week 12160 Rising/ Price above
20 month 11921 Rising/Price above
50 month 10795 Rising/Price above

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 13212.04 +66.22 S/P 500 1408.47 +5.19 NYSE Comp 8206.93 +40.56 NASDAQ 3091.57 -3.79 DJT 5253.19 -3.05   DJU 458.93 +2.89
US Debt Markets
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1370%  2 yr .3325% 5 Yr 1.04% 10 yr 2.21 30 yr 3.34
Ave Mtg rates : 30 Yr 3.97% 30 Yr Rifi 4.04% 15 Yr 3.21% 5/1 ARM 2.86
IEF (US 7-10 yr) 103.29 -.53 TLT (20 yr) 112.69 -1.44
Preferred stocks 39.19 +.21  High Yield 90.72 -.18
MUB (NatlMuni) 109.42 -.04 Cal Muni (NCA)9.80 -.05
BND Total Bond Index 83.21 -.24
Commodities
CRB Commodities Index 308.46 +2.52
Gold 1671.90 +17.00 Silver 32.48 +.48 Copper 3.82 +.02 Platinum 1644.18 +15.80
Oil 103.87 +1.09  RBOB 3.31 -.09 Nat Gas 2.12 -.03
 US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.3282 +.0051 Pound 1.5858 +.0047 Swiss Franc 1.0928 +.0050  
Yen  1.1870 -.0062 Aussie 1.0387 -.0020 Canadian Dollar .9972 -0002
Dollar Index 79.14 -.21
World Debt markets
BWX (Intl Treas) 59.94 +.17 PCY (Emerg debt)27.98 -.01 IBND (Intl Corp)33.96 +.06

All Markets Current Trends 

US SECTORS
(Green up Red down White neutral)
Utilities  Energy   Materials  Tech   Healthcare   Cloud Computiing
Retail   Housing  Consumer Discrestionary   Consumer Staples
Airline    Metals and Mining    Gold Miners   Financial   Transports
Software   Semiconductor   Oil Service    Coal    Oil exporation  

World debt markets
US Bonds: 3-7  current trend down
US Natl Muni Markets: 3-5 current trend down
Emerging Markets Debt: 1-26 current trend up
Intl Corp Bonds 3-23 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds3-26  current trend neutral
US High Yield 3-30 current trend neutral
US Preferred Stocks 11-30  current trend up
Currencies markets
US Dollar Index 3-14 current trend down
Aussie Dollar 3-28 current trend down
Euro 3-23 current trend up
Brit Pd 3-19  current trend up
Swiss Franc: 3-23 current trend up
Jap Yen 2-14 current trend down
Canadian Dollar 3-30 current trend neutral
Mexican Peso 1-18 current trend upl
Brazilian Real 12-12 current trend up
Indian Rupe 12-12 current trend up

Commodity index
(Broad based) 3-30 current trend down
Metals
Gold: .3-5 current trend down
Silver: 3-5  current trend down
Copper 3-26 current trend neutral
Platinum 3-20  current trend neutral
Palladium 3-5 current trend down
Agg, Fiber, Wood
Grains 1-24   Current trend neutral
Cotton 2-14 current trend downl
Livestock 3-5 current trend down
Coffee 2-7 current trend down
Sugar 3-8 Current trend neutral
Lumber 3-20  current trend down
Energy
Oil  3-30 Current trend neutral
Heating Oil 1-3 Current trend up
Gasoline 12-21 current trend up
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down( (10 year low)


World Stock markets
US Stocks: 12-14 current trend up
Europe 3-5 current trend up
China: 3-14 current trend down
Brazil 3-20 current trend downl
Japan 1-18 current trend up
Russia 3-30 current trend neutral
India 3-8 current trend down
Total world markets 1-17 current trend up

Intermediate Term Trends
Dollar:Neutral   US Bonds: Neutral  Gold: Neutral   Silver: Down   Copper: Neutral   Oil: Up   Commodities: Down
International Corporate debt  Neutral    International Treasuries Down   Emerging Debt: Up
Emerging Markets: Up    Total World Stocks: UP Europe :Up   Brazil: Up   Russia  Neutral 
  India:  Down  China:  Down   Japan  Up
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Thursday, March 29, 2012

Natural Gas nears $ 2.00...A blowout low?

News Highlights


Natural Gas is 2.12. It was 4.06 Oct 31, 2011. It looks to me like this is a washout low coming. I would not expect a move back to 4.00 anytime soon but 2.12???  I would expect it to trade back to its breakdown level of 3.55 at some point in the next 2 years. That would be a 67% return. Patience is required.

The ETF that tracks Nat Gas is UNG 16.25.  I believe that it is setting up for a major long term bull market.  That means years. Demand is increasing and so is supply but the environmentalists will have a say on supply at some point. 

Traders have been trying to buy the low for the last 3 years and have been burned. This is what happens when you buy something that is cheap. I believe that Natural gas has moved from cheap to get me out. Traders and investors are just saying get me out I don't care if its cheap or not. That is the way bottoms are formed. The big players gobble up all of the sales and hold for the long run.  I do not know what the price of natural gas should be or what it will be in the next 3 months but this has all the earmaks of a major low.

Mikey

Key Indicators

Current trading range: 12750 -13252 DJI Close 13145.82 +19.61
MACD Crosses: Negative cross = consolidation/correction Positive cross=uptrend
Short term (50 hour) Down  (11 Hrs) ...signal 3-28
MACD  Hourly -21.57
Current trend (50 day) Up (83 days)...signal 12-2-11 12019
MACD Daily (+85.65),Negative cross 3-22 MACD Divergence in progress
Intermediate trend (50 week) Up (17 weeks)...signal 12-5-11 12294
MACD Weekly (+356.58), Positive cross 10-24-11 
Long term trend (50 month) Up (16 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
MACD Monthly (+549.84) Positive Cross 9-1-09
IBD Current trend Up (69 days) Uptrend under pressure 13126  3/28
Volume(Millions) NYSE 806 NASDAQ 1678
Advance/Decline NYSE -652 NASDAQ -368
Mikey NYSE A/D line 50013 Mikey NASDAQ A/D line -5324
New Highs NYSE 43 NASDAQ 70 New Lows NYSE 38 NASDAQ 28
Overbought/Oversold (+100 overbought/-100 oversold)
Mikey5 22 N, Mikey10 -23 N, Mikey20 +3 N, Mikey50 +109 OB
% Stocks above 200 day ave 76% (above 50% uptrend)
Trader Psychology
Put/Call day .99, 10 day .87,  Put Premium .69 10 day .65,  
Bull/Bear Ratio 2.21 Bulls 50.5%, Bears 22.6%
Mutial Funds Buy/Redeem ratio 1.18
VIX 15.48 VXZ 46.65 Mikey Fear 98 (80 Low 20 High) 

Averages (uptrend 20>50)
20 hour 13142 Falling/ Price above
50 hour 13132  Falling /Price above
20 day 13077 Flat/Price above
50 day 12929 Rising /Price above
20 week 12536 Rising/ Price above
50 week 12159 Rising/ Price above
20 month 11920 Rising/Price above
50 month 10794 Rising/Price above

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 13145.82 +19.61 S/P 500 1403.28 -2.26 NYSE Comp 8166.37 -21.98
NASDAQ 3095.36 -9.60  DJT 5256.21 -1.92  DJU 456.04 +1.86
US Debt Markets
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1370%  2 yr .3404% 5 Yr 1.02% 10 yr 2.16 30 yr 3.27
Ave Mtg rates : 30 Yr 3.97% 30 Yr Rifi 4.05% 15 Yr 3.21% 5/1 ARM 2.86
IEF (US 7-10 yr) 103.79 +.43  TLT (20 yr) 114.00 +.72
Preferred stocks 39.05 -.04 High Yield 90.90 +.01  
MUB (NatlMuni) 109.48 -.07  Cal Muni (NCA)9.85 +.08
BND Total Bond Index 83.45 +.18
Commodities
CRB Commodities Index 305.94 -5.53
Gold 1652.20 -5.20 Silver 32.00 +.27 Copper 3.80 +.01 Platinum 1622.70 -12.50
Oil 102.78 -1.63 RBOB 3.40 uc Nat Gas 2.15 -.13
 US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.3232 -.0026 Pound 1.5811 +.0057 Swiss Franc 1.0878 -.0021
Yen  1.1926 +.0050 Aussie 1.0408 -.0015 Canadian Dollar .9977 +.0015
Dollar Index 79.35 +.05
World Debt markets
BWX (Intl Treas) 59.75 -.06 PCY (Emerg debt)27.990 uc IBND (Intl Corp)33.90 -.01

All Markets Current Trends 

US SECTORS
(Green up Red down White neutral)
Utilities  Energy   Materials  Tech   Healthcare   Cloud Computiing
Retail   Housing  Consumer Discrestionary   Consumer Staples
Airline    Metals and Mining    Gold Miners   Financial   Transports
Software   Semiconductor   Oil Service    Coal    Oil exporation  

World debt markets
US Bonds: 3-7  current trend down
US Natl Muni Markets: 3-5 current trend down
Emerging Markets Debt: 1-26 current trend up
Intl Corp Bonds 3-23 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds3-26  current trend neutral
US High Yield 3-5 current trend up
US Preferred Stocks 11-30  current trend up
Currencies markets
US Dollar Index 3-14 current trend down
Aussie Dollar 3-28 current trend down
Euro 3-23 current trend up
Brit Pd 3-19  current trend up
Swiss Franc: 3-23 current trend up
Jap Yen 2-14 current trend down
Canadian Dollar 1-18 current trend upl
Mexican Peso 1-18 current trend upl
Brazilian Real 12-12 current trend up
Indian Rupe 12-12 current trend up

Commodity index
(Broad based) 1-19  current trend neutral
Metals
Gold: .3-5 current trend down
Silver: 3-5  current trend down
Copper 3-26 current trend neutral
Platinum 3-20  current trend neutral
Palladium 3-5 current trend down
Agg, Fiber, Wood
Grains 1-24   Current trend neutral
Cotton 2-14 current trend downl
Livestock 3-5 current trend down
Coffee 2-7 current trend down
Sugar 3-8 Current trend neutral
Lumber 3-20  current trend down
Energy
Oil  2-14 Current trend up
Heating Oil 1-3 Current trend up
Gasoline 12-21 current trend up
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down( (10 year low)


World Stock markets
US Stocks: 12-14 current trend up
Europe 3-5 current trend up
China: 3-14 current trend down
Brazil 3-20 current trend neutral
Japan 1-18 current trend up
Russia 1-18  current trend upl
India 3-8 current trend down
Total world markets 1-17 current trend up

Intermediate Term Trends
Dollar:Neutral   US Bonds: Neutral  Gold: Neutral   Silver: Down   Copper: Neutral   Oil: Up   Commodities: Neutral  
International Corporate debt  Neutral    International Treasuries Down   Emerging Debt: Up
Emerging Markets: Up    Total World Stocks: UP
Europe :Up   Brazil: Up   Russia  Neutral   India:  Down  China:  Neutral  Japan  Up
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Wednesday, March 28, 2012

Trends weakening

News Highlights


The trend is weakening and more and more sell offs are occurring. The hourly gave a second sell signal in the last week.  The Bull /Bear is now 2.21 to 1 and the level of fear is non existent. Uncle Ben again last week said he stands ready to help and I think there is a false sense of security in here. It is all to pat with the whole game being the Fed and their omnipotent ability to buy everything.  All they have succeeded in doing is to put 3.7 trillion in cash into the Corporate balance sheets. That includes a huge chunk of change into their agents, the banks.

I am thinking that we are close to some kind of sell off.  The trail balloon before the real deal. IBD went to uptrend under pressure today and I agree.  The same cannot be said of Gold and Silver which are entering downtrends. They are right on the edge of a big selloff. Even king oil is showing weakness.  The energy sector in the stock market is in a downtrend and they usually lead the commodity. The same was true of the Gold stocks and gold.  Commodities and also on the edge of a cliff again. What it will take is some dollar strength to push them.  China and Brazil both are showing weakness and have entered downtrends.

Mikey

Key Indicators

Current trading range: 12750 -13252 DJI Close 13126.21 -71.52
MACD Crosses: Negative cross = consolidation/correction Positive cross=uptrend
Short term (50 hour) Down  (4 Hrs) ...signal 3-21
MACD  Hourly -9.16
Current trend (50 day) Up (82 days)...signal 12-2-11 12019
MACD Daily (+88.44),Negative cross 3-22 MACD Divergence in progress
Intermediate trend (50 week) Up (17 weeks)...signal 12-5-11 12294
MACD Weekly (+304.05), Positive cross 10-24-11 
Long term trend (50 month) Up (16 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
MACD Monthly (+558.06) Positive Cross 9-1-09
IBD Current trend Up (68 days) Uptrend under pressure 13126  3/28
Volume(Millions) NYSE 812 NASDAQ 1677
Advance/Decline NYSE -780 NASDAQ -746
Mikey NYSE A/D line 50665  Mikey NASDAQ A/D line --4956
New Highs NYSE 66 NASDAQ 84  New Lows NYSE 28 NASDAQ 21
Overbought/Oversold (+100 overbought/-100 oversold)
Mikey5 2 N, Mikey10 +6 N, Mikey20 +27 N, Mikey50 +133 OB
% Stocks above 200 day ave 76% (above 50% uptrend)
Trader Psychology
Put/Call day 1.01, 10 day .79,  Put Premium .60 10 day .65,  
Bull/Bear Ratio 2.21 Bulls 50.5%, Bears 22.6%
Mutial Funds Buy/Redeem ratio 1.18
VIX 15.47 VXZ 46.80 Mikey Fear 98 (80 Low 20 High) 

Averages (uptrend 20>50)
20 hour 13191 Flat/ Price below
50 hour 13146  Falling /Price below
20 day 13080 Rising/Price above
50 day 12930 Rising /Price above
20 week 12538 Rising/ Price above
50 week 12160 Rising/ Price above
20 month 11920 Rising/Price above
50 month 10794 Rising/Price above

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 13126.21 -71.52 S/P 500 1405.54 -6.98  NYSE Comp 8188.35 
NASDAQ 3104.96 -15.39  DJT 5258.13 -18.18 DJU 454.18 -4.05
US Debt Markets
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1446%  2 yr .3404% 5 Yr 1.05% 10 yr 2.20 30 yr 3.31
Ave Mtg rates : 30 Yr 3.98% 30 Yr Rifi 4.05% 15 Yr 3.22% 5/1 ARM 4.05
IEF (US 7-10 yr) 103.36 -.18 TLT (20 yr) 113.40 -.04
Preferred stocks39.09 +.03  High Yield 90.89 -.31
MUB (NatlMuni) 109.45 +.01  Cal Muni (NCA)9.77 +.22 
BND Total Bond Index 63.27 -.02
Commodities
CRB Commodities Index 311.47 -3.96
Gold 1657.90 -27.00 Silver 31.73 -.89 Copper 3.79 -.09 Platinum 1635.20 -22.30
Oil 105.41 -1.82 RBOB 3.40 uc Nat Gas 2.28 
 US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.3258 -.0002 Pound 1.5754 -.0061 Swiss Franc 1.0899 -.0002
Yen  1.18283 +.0053 Aussie 1.0400 -.0091 Canadian Dollar .9962 -.0032
Dollar Index 79.30 +.08
World Debt markets
BWX (Intl Treas) 59.69 -.03 PCY (Emerg debt)27.99 +.02 IBND (Intl Corp)33.91 +.02


All Markets Current Trends 

US SECTORS
(Green up Red down White neutral)
Utilities  Energy   Materials  Tech   Healthcare   Cloud Computiing
Retail   Housing  Consumer Discrestionary   Consumer Staples
Airline    Metals and Mining    Gold Miners   Financial   Transports
Software   Semiconductor   Oil Service    Coal    Oil exporation  

World debt markets
US Bonds: 3-7  current trend down
US Natl Muni Markets: 3-5 current trend down
Emerging Markets Debt: 1-26 current trend up
Intl Corp Bonds 3-23 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds3-26  current trend neutral
US High Yield 3-5 current trend up
US Preferred Stocks 11-30  current trend up
Currencies markets
US Dollar Index 3-14 current trend down
Aussie Dollar 3-28 current trend down
Euro 3-23 current trend up
Brit Pd 3-19  current trend up
Swiss Franc: 3-23 current trend up
Jap Yen 2-14 current trend down
Canadian Dollar 1-18 current trend upl
Mexican Peso 1-18 current trend upl
Brazilian Real 12-12 current trend up
Indian Rupe 12-12 current trend up

Commodity index
(Broad based) 1-19  current trend neutral
Metals
Gold: .3-5 current trend down
Silver: 3-5  current trend down
Copper 3-26 current trend neutral
Platinum 3-20  current trend neutral
Palladium 3-5 current trend down
Agg, Fiber, Wood
Grains 1-24   Current trend neutral
Cotton 2-14 current trend downl
Livestock 3-5 current trend down
Coffee 2-7 current trend down
Sugar 3-8 Current trend neutral
Lumber 3-20  current trend down
Energy
Oil  2-14 Current trend up
Heating Oil 1-3 Current trend up
Gasoline 12-21 current trend up
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down( (10 year low)


World Stock markets
US Stocks: 12-14 current trend up
Europe 3-5 current trend up
China: 3-14 current trend down
Brazil 3-20 current trend neutral
Japan 1-18 current trend up
Russia 1-18  current trend upl
India 3-8 current trend down
Total world markets 1-17 current trend up

Intermediate Term Trends
Dollar:Neutral   US Bonds: Neutral  Gold: Neutral   Silver: Down   Copper: Neutral   Oil: Up   Commodities: Neutral  
International Corporate debt  Neutral    International Treasuries Down   Emerging Debt: Up
Emerging Markets: Up    Total World Stocks: UP
Europe :Up   Brazil: Up   Russia  Neutral   India:  Down  China:  Neutral  Japan  Up
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