Waiting for the Fed

News Highlights


The markets are waiting for guidance from the Fed. The numbers I see indicate that they expect the Fed to hold on to these prices for now. The question is will they pump more?  The economic story is maybe too good to do that but we all know that that story is hot air. Oil prices are causing problems politically so an outright pump is probably not in the works. I really can't see how buying more bonds now will help anything except the oil sellers.

The markets remain in a trading range and have traded between 12750 and 13000 for the last 2 months. The right thing to do would be to let some air out of this thing but when do they do something because it is right.

The hourly DJI trend reversed up today and all trends are now up. The Brazilian and China markets appear to be the weakness and flipped to neutral today. The utilities market gave a buy signal. Put/Call .65/68 and Put premium .65/.68 say the shorts are out of the game. The dollar 79.91 is still bumping up against the 50 day and not trading higher.

Mikey

Key Indicators

Current trading range: 12750 -13027 DJI Close 12959.71 +37.69 
MACD Crosses: Negative cross =consolidation/correction Positive cross=uptrend
Short term (50 hour) UP (12 Hr) ...signal 3-9 12961 
MACD  Hourly +10.43
Current trend (50 day) Up (70 days)...signal 12-2-11 12019
MACD Daily (+31.58),Negative cross 2-13
Intermediate trend (50 week) Up (15 weeks)...signal 12-5-11 12294
MACD Weekly (+329.83), Positive cross 10-24-11 
Long term trend (50 month) Up (16 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
MACD Monthly (+535.07) Positive Cross 9-1-09
IBD Current trend 12-20 Up  (57 days) Market in confirmed uptrend 12103
Volume(Millions) NYSE 645 NASDAQ 1304
Advance/Decline NYSE -251  NASDAQ -344
Mikey A/D line 49901  Mikey NASDAQ A/D line -5990
New Highs NYSE 116 NASDAQ 85 New Lows NYSE 16 NASDAQ 21
Overbought/Oversold (+100 overbought/-100 oversold)
Mikey5 +41 Neutral, Mikey10 +5 Neutral, Mikey20 +51 Neutral, Mikey50 +193 OB
% Stocks above 200 day ave 76% (above 50% uptrend)
Trader Psychology
Put/Call day .59, 10 day .83,  Put Premium .65 10 day .68,  
Bull/Bear Ratio 1.76 Bulls 47.9%, Bears 26.6%
Mutial Funds Buy/Redeem ratio 1.18
VIX 15.64  VXZ 52.68 Mikey Fear 97 (80 Low 20 High) 

Averages (uptrend 20>50)
20 hour 12933 Rising/ Price above
50 hour 12909 Flat/Price above
20 day 12925 Rising/Price above
50 day 12732 Rising /Price above
20 week 12418 Rising/ Price above
50 week 12124 Rising/ Price above
20 month 11908 Rising/Price above
50 month 10789 Rising/Price above

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 12959.71 +37.69 S/P 500 1371.09 +.22  NYSE Comp 80.86.28 -15.82
NASDAQ  2983.66 -4.68 DJT 5144.28 -17.65 DJU 459.92 +4.97
US Debt Markets
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1319%  2 yr .3178% 5 Yr .9078% 10 yr 2.03 30 yr 3.17
Ave Mtg rates : 30 Yr 3.88% 30 Yr Rifi 3.94% 15 Yr 3.14% 5/1 ARM 2.75
IEF (US 7-10 yr) 104.69 +.02 TLT (20 yr) 115.82 -.15
Preferred stocks 39.08 +.10 High Yield 90.70 uc
MUB (NatlMuni) 109.65 +.17 Cal Muni (NCA)10.02 +.02
BND Total Bond Index 83.58 +.06
Commodities
CRB Commodities Index 315.99 -1.62
Gold 1699.80 +2.10 Silver 33.41 -.42  Copper 3.84 +.05 Platinum 1695.70 +39.00
Oil 106.34 -.24 RBOB 3.32 uc  Nat Gas 2.26 -.01
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.3099 +.0040 Pound 1.5503 -.0039 Swiss Franc 1.0763 +.0025
Yen  1.1964 +.0007 Aussie 1.0518 -.0066 Canadian Dollar 1.0014 -.0016
Dollar Index 79.91 -.17
World Debt markets
BWX (Intl Treas) 59.65 -.03  PCY (Emerg debt) 28.42 +.11 IBND (Intl Corp)33.43 +.22


All Markets Current Trends 

US SECTORS
(Green up Red down White neutral)
Utilities  Energy  Materials  Tech   Healthcare
Retail   Housing  Consumer Discrestionary   Consumer Staples

Airline    Metals and Mining    Financial

World debt markets
US Bonds: 3-7  current trend down
US Natl Muni Markets:: 3-5 current trend down
Emerging Markets Debt: 1-26 current trend up
Intl Corp Bonds 3-5 current trend neutral

Intl Treas Bonds 3-5 current trend neutral
US High Yield 3-5 current trend neutral
US Preferred Stocks 11-30 current trend up
Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 3-8 current trend neutra;l
Aussie Dollar 3-5 current trend neutral
Euro 3-5 current trend neutral
Brit Pd 1-26 current trend neutrall
Swiss Franc: 1-27 current trend neutral
Jap Yen 2-14 current trend down
Canadian Dollar 1-18 current trend upl
Mexican Peso 1-18 current trend upl
Brazilian Real 12-12 current trend up
Indian Rupe 12-12 current trend up

Commodity index
(Broad based) 1-19  current trend up
Metals

Gold: .3-5 current trend neutral
Silver: 3-5  current trend upl
Copper3-8 current trend up
Platinum 3-8  current trend up
Palladium 3-5 current trend upl
Agg, Fiber, Wood
Grains 1-24   Current trend up
Cotton 2-14 current trend downl

Livestock 3-5 current trend down
Coffee 2-7 current trend down
Sugar 3-8 Current trend neutral
Lumber 2-3 current trend up

Energy
Oil  2-14 Current trend up
Heating Oil 1-3 Current trend up

Gasoline 12-21 current trend up
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 12-14 current trend up

Europe 3-5 current trend up
China: 3-12 current trend neutral
Brazil 3-12 current trend neutral
Japan 1-18 current trend up
Russia 1-18  current trend upl
India 3-8 current trend up
Total world markets 1-17 current trend up

Intermediate Term Trends
Dollar:Up    US Bonds: Up   Gold: Neutral    Silver: Down   Copper Neutral
Oil: Up   Commodities: Neutral  
International Corporate debt  Down    International Treasuries Down   Emerging Debt: Up
Emerging Markets: Up    Total World Stocks: UP
Europe: Neutral   Brazil: Up   Russia  Neutral   India: Neutral  China: Up   Japan Up