Trends weakening

News Highlights


The trend is weakening and more and more sell offs are occurring. The hourly gave a second sell signal in the last week.  The Bull /Bear is now 2.21 to 1 and the level of fear is non existent. Uncle Ben again last week said he stands ready to help and I think there is a false sense of security in here. It is all to pat with the whole game being the Fed and their omnipotent ability to buy everything.  All they have succeeded in doing is to put 3.7 trillion in cash into the Corporate balance sheets. That includes a huge chunk of change into their agents, the banks.

I am thinking that we are close to some kind of sell off.  The trail balloon before the real deal. IBD went to uptrend under pressure today and I agree.  The same cannot be said of Gold and Silver which are entering downtrends. They are right on the edge of a big selloff. Even king oil is showing weakness.  The energy sector in the stock market is in a downtrend and they usually lead the commodity. The same was true of the Gold stocks and gold.  Commodities and also on the edge of a cliff again. What it will take is some dollar strength to push them.  China and Brazil both are showing weakness and have entered downtrends.

Mikey

Key Indicators

Current trading range: 12750 -13252 DJI Close 13126.21 -71.52
MACD Crosses: Negative cross = consolidation/correction Positive cross=uptrend
Short term (50 hour) Down  (4 Hrs) ...signal 3-21
MACD  Hourly -9.16
Current trend (50 day) Up (82 days)...signal 12-2-11 12019
MACD Daily (+88.44),Negative cross 3-22 MACD Divergence in progress
Intermediate trend (50 week) Up (17 weeks)...signal 12-5-11 12294
MACD Weekly (+304.05), Positive cross 10-24-11 
Long term trend (50 month) Up (16 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
MACD Monthly (+558.06) Positive Cross 9-1-09
IBD Current trend Up (68 days) Uptrend under pressure 13126  3/28
Volume(Millions) NYSE 812 NASDAQ 1677
Advance/Decline NYSE -780 NASDAQ -746
Mikey NYSE A/D line 50665  Mikey NASDAQ A/D line --4956
New Highs NYSE 66 NASDAQ 84  New Lows NYSE 28 NASDAQ 21
Overbought/Oversold (+100 overbought/-100 oversold)
Mikey5 2 N, Mikey10 +6 N, Mikey20 +27 N, Mikey50 +133 OB
% Stocks above 200 day ave 76% (above 50% uptrend)
Trader Psychology
Put/Call day 1.01, 10 day .79,  Put Premium .60 10 day .65,  
Bull/Bear Ratio 2.21 Bulls 50.5%, Bears 22.6%
Mutial Funds Buy/Redeem ratio 1.18
VIX 15.47 VXZ 46.80 Mikey Fear 98 (80 Low 20 High) 

Averages (uptrend 20>50)
20 hour 13191 Flat/ Price below
50 hour 13146  Falling /Price below
20 day 13080 Rising/Price above
50 day 12930 Rising /Price above
20 week 12538 Rising/ Price above
50 week 12160 Rising/ Price above
20 month 11920 Rising/Price above
50 month 10794 Rising/Price above

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 13126.21 -71.52 S/P 500 1405.54 -6.98  NYSE Comp 8188.35 
NASDAQ 3104.96 -15.39  DJT 5258.13 -18.18 DJU 454.18 -4.05
US Debt Markets
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1446%  2 yr .3404% 5 Yr 1.05% 10 yr 2.20 30 yr 3.31
Ave Mtg rates : 30 Yr 3.98% 30 Yr Rifi 4.05% 15 Yr 3.22% 5/1 ARM 4.05
IEF (US 7-10 yr) 103.36 -.18 TLT (20 yr) 113.40 -.04
Preferred stocks39.09 +.03  High Yield 90.89 -.31
MUB (NatlMuni) 109.45 +.01  Cal Muni (NCA)9.77 +.22 
BND Total Bond Index 63.27 -.02
Commodities
CRB Commodities Index 311.47 -3.96
Gold 1657.90 -27.00 Silver 31.73 -.89 Copper 3.79 -.09 Platinum 1635.20 -22.30
Oil 105.41 -1.82 RBOB 3.40 uc Nat Gas 2.28 
 US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.3258 -.0002 Pound 1.5754 -.0061 Swiss Franc 1.0899 -.0002
Yen  1.18283 +.0053 Aussie 1.0400 -.0091 Canadian Dollar .9962 -.0032
Dollar Index 79.30 +.08
World Debt markets
BWX (Intl Treas) 59.69 -.03 PCY (Emerg debt)27.99 +.02 IBND (Intl Corp)33.91 +.02


All Markets Current Trends 

US SECTORS
(Green up Red down White neutral)
Utilities  Energy   Materials  Tech   Healthcare   Cloud Computiing
Retail   Housing  Consumer Discrestionary   Consumer Staples

Airline    Metals and Mining    Gold Miners   Financial   Transports
Software   Semiconductor   Oil Service    Coal    Oil exporation  

World debt markets
US Bonds: 3-7  current trend down
US Natl Muni Markets: 3-5 current trend down
Emerging Markets Debt: 1-26 current trend up
Intl Corp Bonds 3-23 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds3-26  current trend neutral
US High Yield 3-5 current trend up
US Preferred Stocks 11-30  current trend up

Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 3-14 current trend down
Aussie Dollar 3-28 current trend down
Euro 3-23 current trend up
Brit Pd 3-19  current trend up
Swiss Franc: 3-23 current trend up
Jap Yen 2-14 current trend down
Canadian Dollar 1-18 current trend upl
Mexican Peso 1-18 current trend upl
Brazilian Real 12-12 current trend up
Indian Rupe 12-12 current trend up

Commodity index
(Broad based) 1-19  current trend neutral
Metals

Gold: .3-5 current trend down
Silver: 3-5  current trend down
Copper 3-26 current trend neutral
Platinum 3-20  current trend neutral
Palladium 3-5 current trend down
Agg, Fiber, Wood
Grains 1-24   Current trend neutral
Cotton 2-14 current trend downl

Livestock 3-5 current trend down
Coffee 2-7 current trend down
Sugar 3-8 Current trend neutral
Lumber 3-20  current trend down
Energy

Oil  2-14 Current trend up
Heating Oil 1-3 Current trend up

Gasoline 12-21 current trend up
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down( (10 year low)

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 12-14 current trend up

Europe 3-5 current trend up
China: 3-14 current trend down
Brazil 3-20 current trend neutral
Japan 1-18 current trend up
Russia 1-18  current trend upl
India 3-8 current trend down
Total world markets 1-17 current trend up

Intermediate Term Trends
Dollar:Neutral   US Bonds: Neutral  Gold: Neutral   Silver: Down   Copper: Neutral   Oil: Up   Commodities: Neutral  
International Corporate debt  Neutral    International Treasuries Down   Emerging Debt: Up
Emerging Markets: Up    Total World Stocks: UP
Europe :Up   Brazil: Up   Russia  Neutral   India:  Down  China:  Neutral  Japan  Up