Posting Times

Posts will be between 8:30 PM to 10:00 PM PST
Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Friday, March 9, 2012

The survey says..............

News Highlights


In a survey of families in January, with 100,000 or greater incomes, 55% say that we are still in a recession.  That is the difference between the real economy and the Fed based corporate welfare economy.  Stocks prices reflect the Fed story. The real economy is much, much lower. There is a very large divergence between what you see on your computer screen and what is happening on main street. In my opinion, there is great price risk in this market at this level. These kinds of phony markets end up catching up with reality in a hurry when the game is over. How long it last depends on the ability of the manipulators to keep it propped up.  

In the news today, the job market added 227,000 jobs but the rate remained at 8.3%. The rate was the same because  the number of workers in the work force increased.  That is a make up call for the numbers they took away when the jobs numbers needed it. The Fed says that jobs market is sub par but the new numbers are being touted as great.

The word is that the Fed wants to buy more bonds but not to print more dollars by doing repurchase agreements. This is Alice and Wonderland slight of hand and these guys are way out in left field. Until now they have been able to pull rabbits out of their hats and maybe they can continue to do it for now so lets just watch the trend and act accordingly.

The dollar was strong today. It rallied above its 50 day average and is near the top of its trading range.and is close to giving a buy signal. The strange part today was. that everything rallied today.along with the dollar. It looks like the program didn't work today.  Gold. Silver, and the foreign markets all held their support levels and bounced off.  I am looking at 80.32 as the resumption of the uptrend on the dollar index A break above 81.50 and I see a downside reversal in stocks, Gold, world markets, oil and commodities. The story favors a weak dollar Fed but the thing to watch is the price action. Regardless of the story,  don't argue with price.
At the moment the uptrend has it but not by much.

Mikey

Key Indicators

Current trading range: 12500 -13027 DJI Close 12922.02 +14.08
MACD Crosses: Negative cross =consolidation/correction Positive cross=uptrend
Short term (50 hour) Down (47 Hr) ...signal 3-5 12951 
MACD  Hourly +16.52
Current trend (50 day) Up (69 days)...signal 12-2-11 12019
MACD Daily (+62.07),Negative cross 2-13
Intermediate trend (50 week) Up (14 weeks)...signal 12-19-11 12294
MACD Weekly (+329.41), Positive cross 10-24-11 
Long term trend (50 month) Up (16 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
MACD Monthly (+532.36) Positive Cross 9-1-09
IBD Current trend 12-20 Up  (56 days) Market in confirmed uptrend 12103
Volume(Millions) NYSE 717 NASDAQ 1524
Advance/Decline NYSE +1182  NASDAQ +1064
Mikey A/D line 50152 (new high)  Mikey NASDAQ A/D line -5646
New Highs NYSE 160 NASDAQ 120 New Lows NYSE 5 NASDAQ 22
Overbought/Oversold (+100 overbought/-100 oversold)
Mikey5 +33 Neutral, Mikey10 +10 Neutral, Mikey20 +32 Neutral, Mikey50 +178 OB
% Stocks above 200 day ave 76% (above 50% uptrend)
Trader Psychology
Put/Call day .92, 10 day .84,  Put Premium .67 10 day .69,  
Bull/Bear Ratio 1.76 Bulls 47.9%, Bears 26.6%
Mutial Funds Buy/Redeem ratio 1.18
VIX 17.11  VXZ 53.46 Mikey Fear 92 (80 Low 20 High) 

Averages (uptrend 20>50)
20 hour 12892 Rising/ Price above
50 hour 12905 Falling/Price below
20 day 12917 Flat/Price below
50 day 12716 Rising /Price above
20 week 12381 Rising/ Price above
50 week 12112 Rising/ Price above
20 month 11906 Rising/Price above
50 month 10789 Rising/Price above

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 12922.02 +14.08 S/P 500 1370.87 +4.96 NYSE Comp 8102.11 +19.24 NASDAQ  2988.34 +17.92 DJT 5161.93 +15.99 DJU 454.95 +1.75
US Debt Markets
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1319%  2 yr .3177% 5 Yr .8959% 10 yr 2.03 30 yr 3.18
Ave Mtg rates : 30 Yr 3.88% 30 Yr Rifi 3.94% 15 Yr 3.15% 5/1 ARM 2.75
IEF (US 7-10 yr) 104.68 -.07 TLT (20 yr) 115.79 +.05
Preferred stocks 39.98 +.07 High Yield 90.69 +.09
MUB (NatlMuni) 109.54 -.08 Cal Muni (NCA)9.98 +.04
BND Total Bond Index 83.52 -.08
Commodities
CRB Commodities Index 317.61 +1.57  
Gold 1697.70 -1.00 Silver 33.83 -1.00 Copper 3.79 uc Platinum 1656.70 uc
Oil 106.58 uc RBOB 3.32 +.01 Nat Gas 2.27 uc
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.3059 -.0149 Pound 1.5539 -.0146 Swiss Franc 1.0738 -.0125
Yen  1.1936 -.0122 Aussie 1.0586 -.0065 Canadian Dollar 1.0035 +.0003
Dollar Index 80.08
World Debt markets
BWX (Intl Treas) 59.68 -.50 PCY (Emerg debt) 28.32 +.02  IBND (Intl Corp)3.21 -.38

All Markets Current Trends 

US SECTORS
(Green up Red down White neutral)
Utilities  Energy  Materials  Tech   Healthcare
Retail   Housing  Consumer Discrestionary   Consumer Staples
Airline    Metals and Mining    Financial

World debt markets
US Bonds: 3-7  current trend up
US Natl Muni Markets:: 3-5 current trend down
Emerging Markets Debt: 1-26 current trend up
Intl Corp Bonds 3-5 current trend neutral
Intl Treas Bonds 3-5 current trend neutral
US High Yield 3-5 current trend neutral
US Preferred Stocks 11-30 current trend up
Currencies markets
US Dollar Index 3-8 current trend neutra;l
Aussie Dollar 3-5 current trend neutral
Euro 3-5 current trend neutral
Brit Pd 1-26 current trend neutrall
Swiss Franc: 1-27 current trend neutral
Jap Yen 2-14 current trend down
Canadian Dollar 1-18 current trend upl
Mexican Peso 1-18 current trend upl
Brazilian Real 12-12 current trend up
Indian Rupe 12-12 current trend up

Commodity index
(Broad based) 1-19  current trend up
Metals
Gold: .3-5 current trend neutral
Silver: 3-5  current trend neutral
Copper3-8 current trend up
Platinum 3-8  current trend up
Palladium 3-5 current trend upl
Agg, Fiber, Wood
Grains 1-24   Current trend up
Cotton 2-14 current trend downl
Livestock 3-5 current trend down
Coffee 2-7 current trend down
Sugar 3-8 Current trend neutral
Lumber 2-3 current trend up
Energy
Oil  2-14 Current trend up
Heating Oil 1-3 Current trend up
Gasoline 12-21 current trend up
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 12-14 current trend up
Europe 3-5 current trend up
China: 3-5 current trend up
Brazil 1-17 current trend up
Japan 1-18 current trend up
Russia 1-18  current trend upl
India 3-8 current trend up
Total world markets 1-17 current trend up

Intermediate Term Trends
Dollar:Up    US Bonds: Up   Gold: Neutral    Silver: Down   Copper Neutral
Oil: Up   Commodities: Neutral  
International Corporate debt  Down    International Treasuries Down   Emerging Debt: Up
Emerging Markets: Up    Total World Stocks: UP
Europe: Neutral   Brazil: Up   Russia  Neutral   India: Neutral  China: Up   Japan Up
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