Posting Times

Posts will be between 8:30 PM to 10:00 PM PST
Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Monday, March 26, 2012

Hip Hip Hooray Bernanke will keep rates low ...and give money to the corporations

News Highlights

Bernanke says he will keep rates low to stimulate the economy.

Multiple choice question


Who gets the cheap money?

A) Banks who borrow at .25% and lend at 25% and make enough bad loans to plunge the economy into a depression.
B) Corporations selling bonds in the bond market at inflated prices to yield starved investors 
C) Corporations selling stock in a pumped up market
D) The US government who is borrowing money like a drunken sailor for 30 years at 3%
E)  US small business and workers
F) Little old ladies living on fixed income

Well fear not Oh big corporations the rates are staying down until you have so much money that you have to hire somebody

Stocks made an 11 year high on the NASDAQ and a 4 year high on the DJI. . The trends remain up and the traders truly believe that 'ol Ben will not let this country of the corporation, for the corporation, and by the corporation shall not perish.  Thank God it is an election year maybe a candidate will bring this up.  Just Kidding

 An article in IBD today talked about the fact that Natural Gas has become a cheap energy option for business. It mentions that sales of Natural gas has boomed and that last year is up 17% from a decade earlier and  up 31% for 20 years ago. What is really interesting is that natural gas prices have magically declined to 10 year lows as demand has increased.  On the other hand, as oil demand has fallen, prices have risen.  Excuse me but does that sound right to you? The public uses oil and I don't know about you but my utility is freaking raising my gas bill not lowering it. It has the same feel to it as US deficit rises to all time highs rates fall to all time lows for the biggest borrowers.

Cramer says it is a government of the corporations, by the corporations and for the corporations. Draw any conclusions you want but hey those big companies sure are lucky.
I mean they were sure lucky to get low rates and high stock prices in a period where unemployment rose to post depression highs and to top it off how about cheap gas prices as oil prices were rising. Wow what lucky guys. It makes you want to get and vote doesn't it?

Mikey

Key Indicators

Current trading range: 12750 -13252 DJI Close 13241.63 +160.90
MACD Crosses: Negative cross = consolidation/correction Positive cross=uptrend
Short term (50 hour) Up (6 Hrs) ...signal 3-21
MACD  Hourly +24.24
Current trend (50 day) Up (80 days)...signal 12-2-11 12019
MACD Daily (+97.31),Negative cross 3-22 MACD Divergence in progress
Intermediate trend (50 week) Up (17 weeks)...signal 12-5-11 12294
MACD Weekly (+364.52), Positive cross 10-24-11 
Long term trend (50 month) Up (16 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
MACD Monthly (+557.78) Positive Cross 9-1-09
IBD Current trend 12-20 Up  (66 days) Market in confirmed uptrend 12103
Volume(Millions) NYSE 734 NASDAQ 1560
Advance/Decline NYSE +1559 NASDAQ +1347
Mikey A/D line 51938 (new high) Mikey NASDAQ A/D line -3573 (new high)
New Highs NYSE 185 NASDAQ 225 (new high) New Lows NYSE 16 NASDAQ 14Overbought/Oversold (+100 overbought/-100 oversold)
Mikey5 41 N, Mikey10 +41 N, Mikey20 +33 N, Mikey50 +144 OB
% Stocks above 200 day ave 79% (above 50% uptrend)
Trader Psychology
Put/Call day .79, 10 day .79,  Put Premium .69 10 day .66,  
Bull/Bear Ratio 2.05 Bulls 48.4%, Bears 23.6%
Mutial Funds Buy/Redeem ratio 1.18
VIX 14.26 VXZ 45.97 (160 day low) Mikey Fear 103 (80 Low 20 High) 

Averages (uptrend 20>50)
20 hour 13114 Rising/ Price above
50 hour 13165  Flat /Price above
20 day 13051 Rising/Price above
50 day 12889 Rising /Price above
20 week 12541 Rising/ Price above
50 week 12161 Rising/ Price above
20 month 11922 Rising/Price above
50 month 10795 Rising/Price above

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 13241.63 +160.90 S/P 500 1416.51 +19.40 NYSE Comp 8288.79 +108.73
NASDAQ 3122.67 +54.65  DJT 5280.02 +71.20 DJU 456.10 +3.34
US Debt Markets
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1475%  2 yr .3478% 5 Yr 1.09% 10 yr 2.25 30 yr 3.33
Ave Mtg rates : 30 Yr 4.03% 30 Yr Rifi 4.10% 15 Yr 3.25% 5/1 ARM 2.86
IEF (US 7-10 yr) 102.97 -.12 TLT (20 yr) 112.54 -.67
Preferred stocks 39.09 +.07 High Yield 91.01 +.51
MUB (NatlMuni) 109.65 +1.05  Cal Muni (NCA)9.61 -.09
BND Total Bond Index 83.15 +.01
Commodities
CRB Commodities Index 315.01 +.54 Gold 1685.60 +23.20 Silver 32.75 +.48 Copper 3.89 -.01 Platinum 1640.80 +12.80
Oil 107.03 +.16  RBOB 3.41 +.03 Nat Gas 2.22 -.05 (10 year low)
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.3300 +.0075  Pound 1.5833 +.0097 Swiss Franc 1.0929 +.0067
Yen  1.1875 -.0061 Aussie 1.0561 +.0063 Canadian Dollar 1.0033 +.0075
Dollar Index 79.18 -.39
World Debt markets
BWX (Intl Treas) 59.87 +.35  PCY (Emerg debt)28.02 -.02 IBND (Intl Corp)33.93 +.27



All Markets Current Trends 

US SECTORS
(Green up Red down White neutral)
Utilities  Energy   Materials  Tech   Healthcare   Cloud Computiing
Retail   Housing  Consumer Discrestionary   Consumer Staples
Airline    Metals and Mining    Gold Miners   Financial Transports
Software   Semiconductor   Oil Service  Coal  Oil exporation

World debt markets
US Bonds: 3-7  current trend down
US Natl Muni Markets: 3-5 current trend down
Emerging Markets Debt: 1-26 current trend up
Intl Corp Bonds 3-23 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds3-26  current trend neutral
US High Yield 3-5 current trend neutral
US Preferred Stocks 11-30  current trend up
Currencies markets
US Dollar Index 3-14 current trend down
Aussie Dollar 3-15 current trend neutral
Euro 3-23 current trend up
Brit Pd 3-19  current trend up
Swiss Franc: 3-23 current trendup
Jap Yen 2-14 current trend down
Canadian Dollar 1-18 current trend upl
Mexican Peso 1-18 current trend upl
Brazilian Real 12-12 current trend up
Indian Rupe 12-12 current trend up

Commodity index
(Broad based) 1-19  current trend up
Metals
Gold: .3-5 current trend down
Silver: 3-5  current trend down
Copper 3-26 current trend up
Platinum 3-20  current trend neutral
Palladium 3-5 current trend down
Agg, Fiber, Wood
Grains 1-24   Current trend up
Cotton 2-14 current trend downl
Livestock 3-5 current trend down
Coffee 2-7 current trend down
Sugar 3-8 Current trend up
Lumber 3-20  current trend down
Energy
Oil  2-14 Current trend up
Heating Oil 1-3 Current trend up
Gasoline 12-21 current trend up
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down( (10 year low)


World Stock markets
US Stocks: 12-14 current trend up
Europe 3-5 current trend up
China: 3-14 current trend down
Brazil 3-20 current trend neutral
Japan 1-18 current trend up
Russia 1-18  current trend upl
India 3-8 current trend down
Total world markets 1-17 current trend up

Intermediate Term Trends
Dollar: Up    US Bonds:Down  Gold: Down    Silver: Down   Copper: Neutral   Oil: Up   Commodities: Neutral  
International Corporate debt  Down    International Treasuries Down   Emerging Debt: Up
Emerging Markets: Up    Total World Stocks: UP
Europe :Up   Brazil: Up   Russia  Neutral   India:  Down  China:  Down  Japan  Up
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