DJI down 200 pts with declines 10 to 1 over advances on increased volume

News Highlights


The DJ dropped 200 points today as declines ran 10 to 1 verses advances on increased volume. The headlines blamed Greece but I say the weak world economy is to blame. The Dollar noticed this and is back to its 50 day average and close to turning up again. Gold and Silver have also noticed and are on the verge of reestablishing their bear markets.

The stock market has been lagging the Dollar for the past few weeks but is beginning to take notice. The Mikey 5 10 and 20 all turn negative today for the first time since Dec 20th. The new lows on the NYSE were 29 or the same level as Dec 18th. The same is true of the NASDAQ where new lows hit 53. 

Amazingly the Put/Call ratio was .77 meaning that the option players did not buy puts on this sell off. Of course, after 2 months with hardly a down day they have been conditioned to believe that selloffs do not follow through. A follow through here would begin the process of breaking this uptrend. The dollar last week was at a critical level and held at 78.00. The upside critical level is now 80.00. The dollar index above 80.00 flips everything.  That is the number to watch now

There are many trend changes today so it would be a good idea to look through the list. You will notice that many of the trends are turning neutral with the neutral dollar. The precious metals are now now in line with the dollar and are all neutral. Again above 80.00 on the dollar index flips them down. A dollar index below 80 and they hold.

Mikey

Key Indicators

Current trading range: 12500 -13027 DJI Close 12759
MACD Crosses: Negative cross =consolidation/correction Positive cross=uptrend
Short term (50 hour) Down (21 Hr) ...signal 3-5 12951 
MACD  Hourly -59.52
Current trend (50 day) Up (66 days)...signal 12-2-11 12019
MACD Daily (+76.41),Negative cross 2-13
Intermediate trend (50 week) Up (13 weeks)...signal 12-19-11 12294
MACD Weekly (+332.41 ), Positive cross 10-24-11 
Long term trend (50 month) Up (16 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
MACD Monthly (+539.26) Positive Cross 9-1-09
IBD Current trend 12-20 Up  (53 days) Market in confirmed uptrend 12103
Volume(Millions) NYSE 801 NASDAQ 1854Advance/Decline NYSE -575 NASDAQ -236 Mikey A/D line 45465 Mikey NASDAQ A/D line -9035
New Highs NYSE 25 NASDAQ 27 New Lows NYSE 29 NASDAQ 53
Overbought/Oversold (+100 overbought/-100 oversold)
Mikey5 -107 Oversold, Mikey10 -65 Neutral, Mikey20 -22 Neutral, Mikey50 +159 OB
% Stocks above 200 day ave 68% (above 50% uptrend)
Trader Psychology
Put/Call day .77, 10 day .84,  Put Premium .74 10 day .66,  
Bull/Bear Ratio 2.00 Bulls 51.1%, Bears 25.5%
Mutial Funds Buy/Redeem ratio 1.23
VIX 20.87 VXZ 56.44 Mikey Fear 76 (80 Low 20 High) 

Averages (uptrend 20>50)
20 hour 12887 Falling/ Price below
50 hour 12948 Falling/Price below
20 day 12920 Flat/Price below
50 day 12693 Rising/ Price above
20 week 12383 Rising/ Price above
50 week 12113 Rising/ Price above
20 month 11908 Rising/Price above
50 month 10790 Rising/Price above

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 12759.15 -203.66 S/P 500 1343.36 -20.97 NYSE Comp 7920.14 -171.13
NASDAQ  2910.32 -40.16 DJT 5047.25 -78.49 DJU 452.53 -1.98
US Debt Markets
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1294%  2 yr .2817% 5 Yr .830% 10 yr 1.96 30 yr 3.09
Ave Mtg rates : 30 Yr 3.89% 30 Yr Rifi 3.96% 15 Yr 3.17% 5/1 ARM 2.78
IEF (US 7-10 yr) 105.28 +.46 TLT (20 yr) 117.76 +1.54
MUB (NatlMuni) 110.05 -.15 Cal Muni (NCA)10.00 -.07
BND Total Bond Index 83.71 +.14
Commodities
CRB Commodities Index 314.45 -5.00 
Gold 1672.10 -31.80 Silver 32.79 -.92 Copper 3.74 -.05 Platinum 1611.90 -79.80
Oil 104.70 -2.02 RBOB 3.23 -.03  Nat Gas 2.35 uc
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.3056 -.0104 Pound 1.5590 -.0140 Swiss Franc 1.0740 -.0083
Yen  1.2172 +.0095 Aussie 1.0558 -.0118 Canadian Dollar .9936 -.0064
Dollar Index 79.75 +.37
World Debt markets
BWX (Intl Treas) 59.76 -.33 PCY (Emerg debt) 28.12 -.17 IBND (Intl Corp)33.12 -.26


All Markets Current Trends 

US SECTORS

(Green up Red down White Neutral)

NASDAQ
DJ Trans
DJ Util
Long Bonds
Energy

Tech
Healthcare
Materials
Retail
Housing
Consumer Discrestionary
Consumer Staples
Airline
Metals and Mining
Financial

World debt markets
US Bonds: 3-5 current trend up
US Natl Muni Markets:: 3-5 current trend down

Intl Treas Bonds 3-5 current trend neutral

Intl Corp Bonds 3-5 current trend neutral
Emerging Markets Debt: 1-26 current trend up
US High Yield 3-5 current trend neutral
US Preferred Stocks 11-30 current trend up
Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 3-5 current trend neutral
Aussie Dollar 3-5 current trend neutral
Euro 3-5 current trend neutral
Brit Pd 1-26 current trend upl
Swiss Franc: 1-27 current trend up
Jap Yen 2-14 current trend down
Canadian Dollar 1-18 current trend upl
Mexican Peso 1-18 current trend upl
Brazilian Real 12-12 current trend up
Indian Rupe 12-12 current trend up

Commodity index
(Broad based) 1-19  current trend up
Metals

Gold: .3-5 current trend neutral
Silver: 3-5  current trend neutral
Copper 3-5 current trend neutral
Platinum 3-5  current trend neutral
Palladium 3-5 current trend neutral
Agg, Fiber, Wood
Grains 1-24   Current trend up
Cotton 2-14 current trend downl

Livestock 3-5 current trend down
Coffee 2-7 current trend down
Sugar 3-5 Current trend neutral

Lumber 2-3 current trend up
Energy
Oil  2-14 Current trend up
Heating Oil 1-3 Current trend up

Gasoline 12-21 current trend up
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 12-14 current trend up

Europe 3-5 current trend neutral
China: 3-5 current trend neytral
Brazil 1-17 current trend up
Japan 1-18 current trend up
Russia 1-18  current trend upl
India 3-5 current trend neutral
Total world markets 1-17 current trend up

Intermediate Term Trends
Dollar:Up
US Bonds: Up
Emerging Markets: Up 
Total World Stocks: UP
Emerging Debt: Up
International Corporate debt  Neutral
International Treasuries Down
Oil: Up
Gold: Neutral
Silver: Down
Commodities: Neutral
China: Neutral
Brazil: Up
India: Down
Europe: Neutral