Posting Times

Posts will be between 8:30 PM to 10:00 PM PST
Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Thursday, March 8, 2012

95% of banks accept Greece haircut deal...What were they worried about?

News Highlights


The question is who are the idiot 5%.  I think they are wide eyed idealists who can't stomach how much money the Central banks are going to make off of this deal. They also want the banks to take the hit for bad lending. This is a concept that not longer exists.

The central banks and government treasuries just reload the banks and they all make a killing. The public is then asked to tighten their belts to pay for it.  Think about it what does it take to get 95% of any group to agree?  Well, of course, its making a ton of money. In this case they make the money while the average Grecian worker get hammered. This, by the way in coming to the US in the future.

Today the dollar sells off US stocks and commodities rally along with the Euro. The public gets screwed two way higher prices and austerity measures. This way of making money is so much fun that the Chinese are going to get in the game of currency/debt manipulation. Bonds back by the Remundi are coming to a broker near you. They have come along way from their old communist ties. I mean why actually make things to make money when you can do currency swaps with absoulutly no work involved. That is what capitalism is all about and they get it.

In the meantime, stocks and commodities continued in their uptrends and bonds reversed to the downside. The dollar index closed down .58 to 79.21 or slightly above midrange of its recent trading range. It is worth mentioning that the National munisipal bond market is in a downtrend.

Mikey

Key Indicators

Current trading range: 12500 -13027 DJI Close 12907.94 +70.61
MACD Crosses: Negative cross =consolidation/correction Positive cross=uptrend
Short term (50 hour) Down (36 Hr) ...signal 3-5 12951 
MACD  Hourly +2.02
Current trend (50 day) Up (68 days)...signal 12-2-11 12019
MACD Daily (+65.19),Negative cross 2-13
Intermediate trend (50 week) Up (14 weeks)...signal 12-19-11 12294
MACD Weekly (+328 ), Positive cross 10-24-11 
Long term trend (50 month) Up (16 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
MACD Monthly (+530.95) Positive Cross 9-1-09
IBD Current trend 12-20 Up  (55 days) Market in confirmed uptrend 12103
Volume(Millions) NYSE 712 NASDAQ 1554
Advance/Decline NYSE +1783  NASDAQ +1121
 Mikey A/D line 48970 Mikey NASDAQ A/D line -6710
New Highs NYSE 114 NASDAQ 79 New Lows NYSE 8 NASDAQ 23
Overbought/Oversold (+100 overbought/-100 oversold)
Mikey5 -21 Neutral, Mikey10 -8 Neutral, Mikey20 +16 Neutral, Mikey50 +167 OB
% Stocks above 200 day ave 74% (above 50% uptrend)
Trader Psychology
Put/Call day .90, 10 day .85,  Put Premium .76 10 day .68,  
Bull/Bear Ratio 1.76 Bulls 47.9%, Bears 26.6%
Mutial Funds Buy/Redeem ratio 1.18
VIX 17.95 VXZ 54.10 Mikey Fear 88 (80 Low 20 High) 

Averages (uptrend 20>50)
20 hour 12834 Flat/ Price above
50 hour 12913 Falling/Price below
20 day 12915 Flat/Price below
50 day 12708 Flat/ Price above
20 week 12381 Rising/ Price above
50 week 12112 Rising/ Price above
20 month 11905 Rising/Price above
50 month 10788 Rising/Price above

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 12907.94 +70.61 S/P 500 1365.91 +13.28 NYSE Comp 8082.37 +102.59
NASDAQ  2970.42 +34.73  DJT 5145.94 +72.28 DJU 453.20 +1.02
US Debt Markets
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1420%  2 yr .3097% 5 Yr .8798% 10 yr 2.01 30 yr 3.17
Ave Mtg rates : 30 Yr 3.88% 30 Yr Rifi 3.93% 15 Yr 3.15% 5/1 ARM 2.83
IEF (US 7-10 yr) 104.75 -.31 TLT (20 yr) 115.65 -1.26
Preferred stocks 38.99 +.29 High Yield 90.62 +.72
MUB (NatlMuni) 109.62 -.15 Cal Muni (NCA)9.94 -.04
BND Total Bond Index 83.60 -.13
Commodities
CRB Commodities Index 316.04 +1.80  
Gold 1698.70 +14.80 Silver 34.83 +1.45 Copper 3.79 +.03 Platinum 1656.70 +28.00
Oil 106.58 +.71 RBOB 3.31 +.03  Nat Gas 2.27 -.03
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.3216 +.0128 Pound 1.5685 +.0082 Swiss Franc 1.0867 +.0100
Yen  1.2058 -.0067 Aussie 1.0651 +.0063 Canadian Dollar 1.0028 +.0064
Dollar Index 79.21 -.58
World Debt markets
BWX (Intl Treas) 60.18 +.36 PCY (Emerg debt) 28.30 +.13 IBND (Intl Corp)33.59 +.28

All Markets Current Trends 

US SECTORS
(Green up Red down White neutral)
Utilities  Energy  Materials  Tech   Healthcare
Retail   Housing  Consumer Discrestionary   Consumer Staples
Airline    Metals and Mining    Financial

World debt markets
US Bonds: 3-5 current trend up
US Natl Muni Markets:: 3-5 current trend down
Emerging Markets Debt: 1-26 current trend up
Intl Corp Bonds 3-5 current trend neutral
Intl Treas Bonds 3-5 current trend neutral
US High Yield 3-5 current trend neutral
US Preferred Stocks 11-30 current trend up
Currencies markets
US Dollar Index 3-8 current trend downl
Aussie Dollar 3-5 current trend neutral
Euro 3-5 current trend neutral
Brit Pd 1-26 current trend neutrall
Swiss Franc: 1-27 current trend up
Jap Yen 2-14 current trend down
Canadian Dollar 1-18 current trend upl
Mexican Peso 1-18 current trend upl
Brazilian Real 12-12 current trend up
Indian Rupe 12-12 current trend up

Commodity index
(Broad based) 1-19  current trend up
Metals
Gold: .3-5 current trend neutral
Silver: 3-5  current trend neutral
Copper 3-5 current trend neutral
Platinum 3-8  current trend up
Palladium 3-5 current trend neutral
Agg, Fiber, Wood
Grains 1-24   Current trend up
Cotton 2-14 current trend downl
Livestock 3-5 current trend down
Coffee 2-7 current trend down
Sugar 3-8 Current trend upl
Lumber 2-3 current trend up
Energy
Oil  2-14 Current trend up
Heating Oil 1-3 Current trend up
Gasoline 12-21 current trend up
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 12-14 current trend up
Europe 3-5 current trend up
China: 3-5 current trend neutral
Brazil 1-17 current trend up
Japan 1-18 current trend up
Russia 1-18  current trend upl
India 3-5 current trend neutral
Total world markets 1-17 current trend up

Intermediate Term Trends
Dollar:Up    US Bonds: Up
Gold: Neutral    Silver: Down   Copper Neutral
Oil: Up   Commodities: Neutral  
International Corporate debt  Neutral      International Treasuries Down   Emerging Debt: Up
Emerging Markets: Up    Total World Stocks: UP
Europe: Neutral   Brazil: Up   Russia  Neutral   India: Down   China: Neutral   Japan Up
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