What does 13000 mean? Mikey will tell you

News Highlights


I was listening to a financial "expert" this week telling the reporter the meaning of the DJI crossing 13000 briefly on Tuesday.  He said that it just showed that the economy was getting better and better things are coming. I was asked by a friend what 13000 meant today. I said it is a message by the Fed to the public that all is well. That is the point of the advance in stocks. It is to "prove" that things are getting better.

To the average guy there has been no improvement. His major asset is stuck near 5 year lows.  He is paying near record highs for gasoline. His banks are charging exhorbitant rates for his revolving credit. His 401K has retuned to within 10% of 2007 levels but he sold out in 2009 because his wages and benefits were cut and he was broke.

He is hearing that gasoline may go to $5 because of the Iranian thing and that his government is pouring over 1 trillion into a big deep hole every year to keep things afloat. The Fed is manufacturing a higher stock market by trading Dollars and Euros back and forth to prop up bad loans.  What does 13000 mean?  It means higher prices and a stagnant economy and more mismanagement by the Fed and the government. It means that people will not now question the politicians when if you just look at stocks you can tell everything is OK.

I heard the same thing from the Fed in 2006 when they talked about the banks and real estate. They had high stock prices to prove everything was OK then too.  I can only say that they are more interested in appearances than the real substance of the economy. 

Interest rates have been lowered to refinance government debt.  Those funds are not available to the working stiff.  There has been alot of government debt refinanced at 3% in the last 3 years at the same time the average guy is paying the same high rates that the banks charge for his revolving credit. In the end,  this government debt will be devalued one way or another either by "inflation" and higher rates or by the Greece method.  In the meantime the DJI crossed 13000 this week and that means things are getting better.

Mikey

Key Indicators

Current trading range: 12500 -13000 DJI Close 12938The Trends

MACD Crosses: Negative cross =consolidation/correction Positive cross=uptrend
Short term (50 hour) Up (26 Hr) ...signal 2-16 12850 
MACD  Hourly (+16.68)
Current trend (50 day) Up (50 days)...signal 12-2-11 12019
MACD Daily (+131.02),Negative cross 2-13
Intermediate trend (50 week) Up (11 weeks)...signal 12-19-11 12294
MACD Weekly (+314.48), Positive cross
Long term trend (50 month) Up (15 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
MACD Monthly (502.17) Positive Cross 9/1/09
IBD Current trend 12-20 Up  (40 days) Market in confirmed uptrend 12103
Volume(Millions) NYSE 720 NASDAQ 1657
Advance/Decline NYSE -638 NASDAQ -870 Mikey A/D line 48081
New Highs NYSE 104 NASDAQ 58 New Lows NYSE 3 NASDAQ 20
Overbought/Oversold (+100 overbought/-100 oversold)
Mikey5 +22 Neutral, Mikey10 +14 Neutral, Mikey20 +96 Neutral, Mikey50 +189 OB
% Stocks above 200 day ave 77% (above 50% uptrend)
Trader Psychology
Put/Call day .66, 10 day .77,  Put Premium .67 10 day .59,  
Bull/Bear Ratio 2.12 Bulls 54.8%, Bears 25.8%
Mutial Funds Buy/Redee m ratio 1.01
VIX 18.19 VXZ 55.25 Mikey Fear 87 (80 Low 20 High) 

Averages (uptrend 20>50)
20 hour 12952 Rising/ Price above
50 hour 12891 Rising/Price above
20 day 12826 Rising/Price above
50 day 12515 Rising/ Price above
20 week 12258 Rising/ Price above
50 week 12073 Rising/ Price above
20 month 11784 Rising/Price above
50 month 10784 Flat/Price above

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 12938.67 -27.02 S/P 500 1357.66 -4.55 NYSE Comp 8094.38 -21.04 NASDAQ  2933.17 -15.40 DJT 5125.17 -38.01 DJU 452.34 +.06
US Debt Markets
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1283%  2 yr .3009% 5 Yr .8958% 10 yr 2.02 30 yr 3.16
Ave Mtg rates : 30 Yr 3.90% 30 Yr Rifi 3.98% 15 Yr 3.17% 5/1 ARM 2.86
IEF (US 7-10 yr) 104.91 +.41 TLT (20 yr) 116.51 +1.22
MUB (NatlMuni) 113.77 +.21  Cal Muni (NCA)9.82 +.08
BND Total Bond Index 83.74 +.28
Commodities
CRB Commodities Index 322.86 +.41
Gold 1771.30 Silver 34.26 Copper 3.83 Platinum 1720.80
Oil 106.28 RBOB 3.08 Nat Gas 2.64
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 131.85 +.0003 Pound 1.5537 -.0111 Swiss Franc 1.0842 +.0020
Yen  1.2285 -.0088 Aussie 1.0661 -.0029 Canadian Dollar .9944 -.0033
Dollar Index 79.30
World Debt markets
BWX (Intl Treas) 59.95 +.28 PCY (Emerg debt) 27.88 +.10 IBND (Intl Corp)33.06 -.01

All Markets Current Trends 

US SECTORS

(Green up Red down White Neutral)

NASDAQ
DJ Trans
DJ Util
Long Bonds
Energy

Tech
Healthcare
Materials
Retail
Housing
Consumer Discrestionary
Consumer Staples
Airline
Metals and Mining
Financial

World debt markets
US Bonds: 2-3 current trend down
US Natl Muni Markets:: 11-21 current trend up

Intl Treas Bonds 1-26 current trend up

Intl Corp Bonds 1-26 current trend up
Emerging Markets Debt: 1-26 current trend up
US High Yield 12-12 current trend up
US Preferred Stocks 11-30 current trend up
Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 1-26 current trend down
Aussie Dollar 1-10 current trend up
Euro 1-26 current trend up
Brit Pd 1-26 current trend upl
Swiss Franc: 1-27 current trend up
Jap Yen 1-27 current trend up
Canadian Dollar 1-18 current trend upl
Mexican Peso 1-18 current trend upl
Brazilian Real 12-12 current trend up
Indian Rupe 12-12 current trend up

Commodity index
(Broad based) 1-19  current trend up
Metals

Gold: .1-26 current trend up
Silver: 1-21 current trend up

Copper 1-17 current trend up
Platinum 1-18 current trend up
Palladium 1-17 current trend up
Agg, Fiber, Wood

Grains 1-24   Current trend up
Cotton 1-17 current trend upl

Livestock 1-24 current trend up
Coffee 2-7 current trend neutral
Sugar 1-18 Current trend up

Lumber 2-3 current trend up
Energy
Oil  2-8 current trend neutral
Heating Oil 1-3 Current trend up

Gasoline 12-21 current trend up
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 12-14 current trend up

Europe 1-18 current trend up
China: 1-17 current trend upl
Brazil 1-17 current trend up
Japan 1-18 current trend up
India 1-17 current trend up
Russia 1-18  current trend upl
India 1-17 current trend up
Total world markets 1-17 current trend up

Intermediate Term Trends
Dollar:Up
US Bonds: Up
Emerging Markets: Up 
Total World Stocks: Neutral
Emerging Debt: Up
World Bonds: Neutral
Oil: Up
Gold: Up
Silver: Down
Commodities: Down
China: Up
Brazil: Up
India: Down
Europe: Down

Trend changes today:

World Stocks: 
Currencies:,Oil down
Commodities:
World Debt