It's all good

News Highlights


The week started out with the CBO and the Fed saying that the economy would be weak for the next 2 years and ended the week with strong economic numbers lead by the explosion of jobs in the jobs report. The NASDAQ bolted to 11 year highs and the DJI to near 3.5 year highs. The DJI is only 10% below its all time high hit is boom economic times.  Bonds which gave a sell signal last week and reversed up earlier this week, on trash talking by the Fed and CBO, reversed down again on the solid economic news today. There were alot of traders that got their heads spun around like Chucky this week.  When the dust settled stock prices were higher and bonds were lower.

The dollar which should benefit from a stronger economy maintained its downtrend as the Central banks continued to work on the Euro problem. The Greece deal has not been cut yet so the currencies saw little movement and besides this week was set aside for the US economic story Europe will come together some time down the road.

Gold and Silver traded sideways with the Dollar. Oil is trading just below its 50 day average which is enough to say that it is in a downtrend but do not be surprised if it whipsaws the shorts one more time.  This week was all about the US economic story which is signaling a pick up going into the election year and the boys put on quite a display of numbers for the traders to deal with.

Mikey indicators and put/call ratios are saying this thing is very overbought with very little fear of a sell off. You can add to that the idea that 89% of the time when January is up the market is up for the year.  The strong jobs numbers and the fact that the Fed says it will keep supporting the economy (read QE3) plus the new multi year highs in the markets and presto stocks are bullet proof.

That is what happens at a top but a selloff does not have to happen right away.  The market will do what is necessary to make all of us wrong. That is why I follow the trend. The trend takes you where prices are going and not where your ego says where they should go.  What I really think is wrong 90% of the time.  If you are going to trade then it can't be with your ego it has to be on price. The current trend is up but at some point it will reverse after all the traders are long. 

The hourly DJI gave a brief sell signal on Friday of last week at 12631 and reversed back up on Tuesday of this week returning to the highs hit on Wednesday the 25th.  The first sell signal on the hourly seldom follows through, it is the second signal that comes after a retest of the highs that is the one to take. That sell signal would come below the pivot line of 12620 and on a break of the hourly 50 line. This is an interesting set up now and if the reversal takes place I will post it.  

Mikey


Key Indicators

Current trading range: 12280 -12862 DJI Close 12862
The Trends
Short term (50 hour) UP(3) ...signal 2-1 12700
Current trend (50 day) Up (44 days)...signal 12-2-11 12019
Intermediate trend (50 week) Up (10 weeks)...signal 12-19-11 12294
Long term trend (50 month) Up (15 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
IBD Current trend 12-20 Up  (30 days) Market in confirmed uptrend 12103
Overbought/Oversold (+100 overbought/-100 oversold)
Volume(Millions) NYSE 900 NASDAQ 2.056B
Advance/Decline NYSE +1694 NASDAQ +1521 Mikey A/D line 47511
Mikey5 (+94)Neutral Mikey10 (+140)OB Mikey20 (+188) OB, Mikey50(+178) OB
% Stocks above 200 day ave 75% (above 50% uptrend)
Trader Psychology
Put/Call day .86, 10 day .82,  Put Premium .65 10 day .71,  
Bull/Bear Ratio 1.65 Bulls 48.9%, Bears 29.6%
Mutial Funds Buy/Redeem ratio 1.01
MACD  Daily (+155.36),Negative cross 1-30, Weekly (+249.57), Positive cross 10-24
VIX 17.10 VXZ 51.92 Mikey Fear 92 (80 Low 20 High) 

Averages (uptrend 20>50)
20 hour 12772 Rising/ Price above
50 hour 12711 Rising/Price above
20 day 12603 Rising/Price above
50 day 12028 Rising/ Price above
20 week 11962 Rising/ Price above
50 week 12028 Rising/ Price above
20 month 11779 Rising/Price above
50 month 10781 Flat/Price above

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 12862.23 +156.82 S/P 500 1344.90 +19.36 NYSE Comp 8060.43 +115.00
NASDAQ  2905.66 +45.98  DJT 5368.93 +63.27 DJU 451.36 +1.52
US Debt Markets
US Gov rates: 6 mo .0968%  2 yr .2341% 5 Yr .7693% 10 yr 1.92 30 yr 3.12
Ave Mtg rates : 30 Yr 3.85% 30 Yr Rifi 3.91% 15 Yr 3.18% 5/1 ARM 2.85
IEF (US 7-10 yr) 105.21 -.86 TLT (20 yr) 116.52 -2.61 
MUB (NatlMuni) 112.42 -.77 Cal Muni (NCA)9.77 -.01
BND Total Bond Index 83.80 -.11
Commodities
CRB Commodities Index 314.22 +3.32
Gold 1740.30 -19.00  Silver 33.75 -.42  Copper 3.90 +.12 Platinum 1631.90 +2.00
Oil 97.84 +1.48 RBOB 2.91 +.03 Nat Gas 2.50 -.05
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.3084 -.0004 Pound 1.5684 -.0004 Swiss Franc 1.0748 -.0019
Yen  1.2853 -.0059 Aussie 1.0781 +.0076 Dollar Index 79.05 -.06
World Debt markets
BWX (Intl Treas) 60.59 -.26 PCY (Emerg debt) 27.62 +.07 IBND (Intl Corp)32.79 +.05


All Markets Current Trends 

World debt markets
US Bonds: 2-3 current trend down
US Natl Muni Markets:: 11-21 current trend up

Intl Treas Bonds 1-26 current trend up
Intl Corp Bonds 1-26 current trend up
Emerging Markets Debt: 1-26 current trend up
US High Yield 12-12 current trend up
US Preferred Stocks 11-30 current trend up
Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 1-26 current trend down
Aussie Dollar 1-10 current trend up
Euro 1-26 current trend up
Brit Pd 1-26 current trend upl
Swiss Franc: 1-27 current trend up
Jap Yen 1-27 current trend up
Canadian Dollar 1-18 current trend upl
Mexican Peso 1-18 current trend upl
Brazilian Real 12-12 current trend up
Indian Rupe 12-12 current trend up

Commodity index
(Broad based) 1-19  current trend up
Metals

Gold: .1-26 current trend up
Silver: 1-21 current trend up

Copper 1-17 current trend up
Platinum 1-18 current trend up
Palladium 1-17 current trend up
Agg, Fiber, Wood

Grains 1-24   Current trend up
Cotton 1-17 current trend upl

Livestock 1-24 current trend up
Coffee 9-21 current trend down

Sugar 1-18 Current trend up
Lumber 12-28 current trend neutral

Energy

Oil  2-2 current trend down
Heating Oil 1-3 Current trend up

Gasoline 12-21 current trend up
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 12-14 current trend up

Europe 1-18 current trend up
China: 1-17 current trend upl
Brazil 1-17 current trend up
Japan 1-18 current trend up
India 1-17 current trend up
Russia 1-18  current trend upl
India 1-17 current trend up
Total world markets 1-17 current trend up

Intermediate Term Trends
Dollar:Up
US Bonds: Up
World Bonds: Neutral
US Stocks Up
Commodities: Down
Oil: Up
Gold: up
Silver: Down
Emerging Debt: Neutral
Emerging Markets: Down
World Stocks: Neutral

Trend changes today:
World Stocks: 
Currencies:,Oil down
Commodities:
World Debt