Posting Times

Posts will be between 8:30 PM to 10:00 PM PST
Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Thursday, February 2, 2012

Oil trend turns down

News Highlights



Mikey


Key Indicators

Current trading range: 12280 -12750 DJI Close 12705
The Trends
Short term (50 hour) UP(2) ...signal 2-1 12700
Current trend (50 day) Up (43 days)...signal 12-2-11 12019
Intermediate trend (50 week) Up (10 weeks)...signal 12-19-11 12294
Long term trend (50 month) Up (17 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
IBD Current trend 12-20 Up  (29 days) Market in confirmed uptrend 12103
Overbought/Oversold (+100 overbought/-100 oversold)
Volume(Millions) NYSE 805 NASDAQ 1.842 B
Advance/Decline NYSE +406 NASDAQ +539 Mikey A/D line 45817
Mikey5 (+73)Neutral Mikey10 (+116)OB Mikey20 (+173) OB, Mikey50(+140) OB
% Stocks above 200 day ave 71% (above 50% uptrend)
Trader Psychology
Put/Call day .58, 10 day .81,  Put Premium .65 10 day .71,  
Bull/Bear Ratio 1.65 Bulls 48.9%, Bears 29.6%
Mutial Funds Buy/Redeem ratio 1.01
MACD  Daily (+152.89),Negative cross 1-30, Weekly (+237.41), Positive cross 10-24
VIX 17.98 VXZ 53.00 Mikey Fear 88 (80 Low 20 High) 

Averages (uptrend 20>50)
20 hour 12695 Rising/ Price above
50 hour 12685 Rising/Price above
20 day 12566 Rising/Price above
50 day 12195 Rising/ Price above
20 week 11954 Rising/ Price above
50 week 12051 Rising/ Price above
20 month 11771 Rising/Price above
50 month 10778 Flat/Price above

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 12705.41 -11.05 S/P 500 1325.54 +1.45 NYSE Comp 7945.43 +13.98  
NASDAQ  2589.65 +11.41 DJT 5305.66 -37.44 DJU 448.84 -1.07
US Debt Markets
US Gov rates: 6 mo .0966%  2 yr .2223% 5 Yr .7119% 10 yr 1.83 30 yr 3.01
Ave Mtg rates : 30 Yr 3.87% 30 Yr Rifi 3.94% 15 Yr 3.18% 5/1 ARM 2.85
IEF (US 7-10 yr) 119.05 -.12 TLT (20 yr) 119.05 -.12
MUB (NatlMuni) 113.19 +.58 Cal Muni (NCA)9.78 +.03
BND Total Bond Index 83.91 +.13

Commodities
CRB Commodities Index 310.90 -.63

Gold 1759.30 +9.80 Silver 34.18 +.34 Copper 3.78 -.06 Platinum 1629.90  
Oil 96.36 -2.12 RBOB 2.88 -.01 Nat Gas 2.55 +.16
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 130.91 -.0006  Pound 1.5674 -.0027
Swiss Franc 1.0754 -.0027
Yen  1.2907 uc Aussie 1.0711 +.0008 Dollar Index 79.11 +.08
World Debt markets
BWX (Intl Treas) 60.85 +.01  PCY (Emerg debt) 27.55 +.13 IBND (Intl Corp)32.74 -.03

All Markets Current Trends 

World debt markets
US Bonds: 1-30  current trend neutral
US Natl Muni Markets:11-21 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 1-26 current trend up
Intl Corp Bonds 1-26 current trend up
Emerging Markets Debt: 1-26 current trend up
US High Yield 12-12 current trend up
US Preferred Stocks 11-30 current trend up
Currencies markets
US Dollar Index 1-26 current trend down
Aussie Dollar 1-10 current trend up
Euro 1-26 current trend up
Brit Pd 1-26 current trend upl
Swiss Franc: 1-27 current trend up
Jap Yen 1-27 current trend up
Canadian Dollar 1-18 current trend upl
Mexican Peso 1-18 current trend upl
Brazilian Real 12-12 current trend up
Indian Rupe 12-12 current trend up

Commodity index
(Broad based) 1-19  current trend up
Metals
Gold: .1-26 current trend up
Silver: 1-21 current trend up
Copper 1-17 current trend up
Platinum 1-18 current trend up
Palladium 1-17 current trend up
Agg, Fiber, Wood
Grains 1-24   Current trend up
Cotton 1-17 current trend upl
Livestock 1-24 current trend up
Coffee 9-21 current trend down
Sugar 1-18 Current trend up
Lumber 12-28 current trend neutral
Energy
Oil  2-2 current trend down
Heating Oil 1-3 Current trend up
Gasoline 12-21 current trend up
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 12-14 current trend up
Europe 1-18 current trend up
China: 1-17 current trend upl
Brazil 1-17 current trend up
Japan 1-18 current trend up
India 1-17 current trend up
Russia 1-18  current trend upl
India 1-17 current trend up
Total world markets 1-17 current trend up

Intermediate Term Trends
Dollar:Up
US Bonds: Up
World Bonds: Neutral
US Stocks Up
Commodities: Down
Oil: Up
Gold: up
Silver: Down
Emerging Debt: Neutral
Emerging Markets: Down
World Stocks: Neutral

Trend changes today:
World Stocks: 
Currencies:,Oil down
Commodities:
World Debt

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