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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Monday, February 13, 2012

NYSE remains overbought entering expirations week

News Highlights


The NYSE remains overbought going into expirations week. It looks like it is 300 points to high to me for this expiration.  
Mikey

Key Indicators

Current trading range: 12500 -12903 DJI Close 12874
The Trends
Short term (50 hour) up (7 Hr) ...signal 2-13 12766
Current trend (50 day) Up (44 days)...signal 12-2-11 12019
Intermediate trend (50 week) Up (11 weeks)...signal 12-19-11 12294
Long term trend (50 month) Up (15 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
IBD Current trend 12-20 Up  (36 days) Market in confirmed uptrend 12103
Volume(Millions) NYSE 681 NASDAQ 1,555
Advance/Decline NYSE +1654 NASDAQ +1181 Mikey A/D line 48020
New Highs NYSE 171 NASDAQ 96 New Lows NYSE 3 NASDAQ 11
Overbought/Oversold (+100 overbought/-100 oversold)Mikey5 (+26) Neutral, Mikey10 (+101) OB, Mikey20 (+162) OB, Mikey50 (+186) OB


% Stocks above 200 day ave 75% (above 50% uptrend)
Trader Psychology
Put/Call day .46, 10 day .73,  Put Premium .57 10 day .62,  
Bull/Bear Ratio 1.81 Bulls 52.1%, Bears 28.7%
Mutial Funds Buy/Redeem ratio 1.01
MACD  Hourly ( +6.91) , Daily (+151.69 ),Negative cross 2-13,
Weekly (+289.98 ), Positive cross 10-24-11, Monthly (495.92) Positive Cross 9/1/09
VIX 19.04  VXZ 53.13 Mikey Fear 84 (80 Low 20 High) 

Averages (uptrend 20>50)
20 hour 12841  Falling/ Price above
50 hour 12486 Rising/Price above
20 day 12734 Rising/Price above
50 day 12401 Rising/ Price above
20 week 12161 Rising/ Price above
50 week 12055 Rising/ Price above
20 month 11779 Rising/Price above
50 month 10782 Flat/Price above

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 12874.04 +72.81 S/P 500 1351.77 +9.13 NYSE Comp 8056.23 +64.20   
NASDAQ  2931.39 +27.51 DJT 5322.19 +68.05  DJU 449.41 +1.04
US Debt Markets
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1409%  2 yr .2820% 5 Yr .8234% 10 yr 1.96 30 yr 3.10
Ave Mtg rates : 30 Yr 3.88% 30 Yr Rifi 3.96% 15 Yr 3.21% 5/1 ARM 2.87
IEF (US 7-10 yr) 105.17 -.07 TLT (20 yr) 117.20 +.21
MUB (NatlMuni) 113.42 +.83 Cal Muni (NCA)9.95 +.08
BND Total Bond Index 83.69 -.01
Commodities
CRB Commodities Index 314.06 +1.92  
Gold 1724.90 -.50 Silver 33.72 +.12
Copper 3.84 -.02  Platinum 1649.90 -9.90  
Oil 100.91 +2.14 RBOB 3.00 +.03 Nat Gas 2.44 -.04
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.3134 +.0016 Pound 1.5592 -.0010  Swiss Franc 1.0772 +.0010
Yen  1.2689 +.0010  Aussie 1.0747 +.0071 Canadian Dollar .9950 +.0035
Dollar Index 79.31
World Debt markets
BWX (Intl Treas) 59.98 -.08 PCY (Emerg debt) 27.70 +.06 IBND (Intl Corp)32.96 +.14


All Markets Current Trends 

US SECTORS

(Green up Red down White Neutral)

NASDAQ
DJ Trans
DJ Util
Long Bonds
Energy
Tech
Healthcare
Materials
Retail
Housing
Consumer Discrestionary
Consumer Staples
Airline
Metals and Mining
Financial

World debt markets
US Bonds: 2-3 current trend down
US Natl Muni Markets:: 11-21 current trend up

Intl Treas Bonds 1-26 current trend up
Intl Corp Bonds 1-26 current trend up
Emerging Markets Debt: 1-26 current trend up
US High Yield 12-12 current trend up
US Preferred Stocks 11-30 current trend up
Currencies markets
US Dollar Index 1-26 current trend down
Aussie Dollar 1-10 current trend up
Euro 1-26 current trend up
Brit Pd 1-26 current trend upl
Swiss Franc: 1-27 current trend up
Jap Yen 1-27 current trend up
Canadian Dollar 1-18 current trend upl
Mexican Peso 1-18 current trend upl
Brazilian Real 12-12 current trend up
Indian Rupe 12-12 current trend up

Commodity index
(Broad based) 1-19  current trend up
Metals
Gold: .1-26 current trend up
Silver: 1-21 current trend up
Copper 1-17 current trend up
Platinum 1-18 current trend up
Palladium 1-17 current trend up
Agg, Fiber, Wood
Grains 1-24   Current trend up
Cotton 1-17 current trend upl
Livestock 1-24 current trend up
Coffee 2-7 current trend neutral
Sugar 1-18 Current trend up
Lumber 2-3 current trend up
Energy
Oil  2-8 current trend neutral
Heating Oil 1-3 Current trend up
Gasoline 12-21 current trend up
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 12-14 current trend up
Europe 1-18 current trend up
China: 1-17 current trend upl
Brazil 1-17 current trend up
Japan 1-18 current trend up
India 1-17 current trend up
Russia 1-18  current trend upl
India 1-17 current trend up
Total world markets 1-17 current trend up

Intermediate Term Trends
Dollar:Up
US Bonds: Up
Emerging Markets: Up 
Total World Stocks: Neutral
Emerging Debt: Up
World Bonds: Neutral
Oil: Up
Gold: Up
Silver: Down
Commodities: Down
China: Up
Brazil: Up
India: Down
Europe: Down

Trend changes today:
World Stocks: 
Currencies:,Oil down
Commodities:
World Debt
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