2012 is another year of "stimulus" for the "recovery"

News Highlights


Obama’s Stimulus: Nat’l Debt Up 41%, Incomes Down 7%
Long-Term Jobless Up 83%
Unemployment back to Feb. ’09 rate, because labor force has declined

Without any fanfare whatsoever from the White House, Feb. 17 marks the three-year anniversary of the day President Obama signed the much-ballyhooed stimulus into law.

At the time, Obama claimed that it would “create or save” up to 3.5 million jobs, and that “a new wave of innovation, activity and construction will be unleashed across America.” The stimulus would, he promised “ignite spending by businesses and consumers” and bring “real and lasting change for generations to come.”

So three years later, how do the stimulus results stack up? Here’s where various indicators stood in or around February 2009, and where they stand today.

Unemployment rate: The jobless rate is unchanged from February 2009 to January 2012, the latest month for which we have data. Both stood at 8.3%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Obama’s economists had initially predicted that with the stimulus, unemployment would stay below 8%.

Number of long-term unemployed: The number of workers who have been unable to find a job in 27 months or more has shot up 83%, with their ranks now at 5.5 million.

Civilian labor force: It has shrunk by 126,000. In past recoveries, the labor force climbed an average of more than 3 million over comparable time periods.

Labor force participation:

The share of adults in the labor force — either looking or working — has dropped 3%, also highly unusual in a recovery. At 63.7%, labor force participation is at a low not seen since the middle of the very deep 1981-82 recession, when fewer women were in the workforce. A lower participation rate makes the unemployment rate look better.

Household income: Median annual household income is about 7% below where it was in February 2009, according to the Sentier Research Household Income Index.

National debt: Up $4.5 trillion, or 41%, according to the Treasury Department’s monthly reports. The latest Treasury figures put the national debt at $15.4 trillion, larger than the entire U.S. economy.

Deficits: The deficit for fiscal year 2009 totaled $1.4 trillion. The Obama administration’s proposed deficit for 2012 is $1.3 trillion, which would mark the fourth year of deficits topping $1 trillion.

Gross domestic product:

Real GDP has climbed just 6% between Q1 2009 and Q4 2011, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Stimulus price tag: The original estimate for the cost of the stimulus was $787 billion. Now the Congressional Budget Office says that, when all is said and done, it will have cost $825 billion.


Spending by consumers and businesses: Personal consumption has managed to climb 10% in the past three years, according to the BEA, but companies continue to hoard cash, with cash on hand up 27% since Q1 2009, according to the Federal Reserve Bank.

Perhaps the best measure of the success or failure of the stimulus, however, is the fact that President Obama in his latest budget plan has called for still another round of stimulus spending, this time totaling $350 billion over the next four years, for what is labeled “short-term measures for jobs growth.”


The net net is that there has been  no improvement in then economy since 2009.  What has happened is that cash in hand in corporations is up 27% , the national debt is up 41% and unemployment is unchanged from the bottom of the recession. What is going to happen now?  More "stimulus"  to tune of 350 billion in the next 4 years..

Does this sound like the government is using its credit card just like the US public did in 2004 to 2006?
It does to me and you know it works until they cut off your credit. When will that happen?  The game now is trade the debt. It is a game of hot potato. The corporations are scared and that is why they hold cash.  I mean why invest when the governmet will pay you to keep the status quo? The government will have to pay for this at some point just look at Europe.

Mikey

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Current trading range: 12500 -12949 DJI Close 12949
The Trends

MACD Crosses: Negative cross =consolidation/correction Positive cross=uptrend
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MACD  Hourly (+30.63)
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MACD Daily (+135.12),Negative cross 2-13
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MACD Weekly (+296.23), Positive cross
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MACD Monthly (502.17) Positive Cross 9/1/09IBD Current trend 12-20 Up  (40 days) Market in confirmed uptrend 12103


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Overbought/Oversold (+100 overbought/-100 oversold)
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20 month 11783 Rising/Price above
50 month 10783 Flat/Price above

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 12949.87 +45.79 S/P 500 1361.23 +3.19 NYSE Comp 8114.51 +22.32 NASDAQ  2951.78 -8.07 DJT 5239.52 -23.58 DJU 452.60 -.40
US Debt Markets
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1221%  2 yr .2903% 5 Yr .8588% 10 yr 2.00 30 yr 3.14
Ave Mtg rates : 30 Yr 3.81% 30 Yr Rifi 3.89% 15 Yr 3.13% 5/1 ARM 2.83
IEF (US 7-10 yr) 104.85 -.14 TLT (20 yr) 116.57 -.04
MUB (NatlMuni) 113.26 -.07  Cal Muni (NCA)9.83 +.12  
BND Total Bond Index 83.51 -.19
Commodities
CRB Commodities Index 317.39 +.98
Gold 1725.90 -3.40 Silver 33.21 -.15 Copper 3.70 -.08 Platinum 1633.90 +7.80 Oil 103.24 +.93 RBOB 3.01 -.03  Nat Gas 2.68 +.12
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.3110 +.0026 Pound 1.5700 +.0038 Swiss Franc 1.0743 -.0002
Yen  1.2379 -.0092 Aussie 1.0735 -.0036 Canadian Dollar .9985 +.0007
Dollar Index 79.45 -.05
World Debt markets
BWX (Intl Treas) 59.86 -.12 PCY (Emerg debt) 27.59 -.06  IBND (Intl Corp)32.79 +.06


All Markets Current Trends 

US SECTORS

(Green up Red down White Neutral)

NASDAQ
DJ Trans
DJ Util
Long Bonds
Energy

Tech
Healthcare
Materials
Retail
Housing
Consumer Discrestionary
Consumer Staples
Airline
Metals and Mining
Financial

World debt markets
US Bonds: 2-3 current trend down
US Natl Muni Markets:: 11-21 current trend up

Intl Treas Bonds 1-26 current trend up

Intl Corp Bonds 1-26 current trend up
Emerging Markets Debt: 1-26 current trend up
US High Yield 12-12 current trend up
US Preferred Stocks 11-30 current trend up
Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 1-26 current trend down
Aussie Dollar 1-10 current trend up
Euro 1-26 current trend up
Brit Pd 1-26 current trend upl
Swiss Franc: 1-27 current trend up
Jap Yen 1-27 current trend up
Canadian Dollar 1-18 current trend upl
Mexican Peso 1-18 current trend upl
Brazilian Real 12-12 current trend up
Indian Rupe 12-12 current trend up

Commodity index
(Broad based) 1-19  current trend up
Metals

Gold: .1-26 current trend up
Silver: 1-21 current trend up

Copper 1-17 current trend up
Platinum 1-18 current trend up
Palladium 1-17 current trend up
Agg, Fiber, Wood

Grains 1-24   Current trend up
Cotton 1-17 current trend upl

Livestock 1-24 current trend up
Coffee 2-7 current trend neutral
Sugar 1-18 Current trend up

Lumber 2-3 current trend up
Energy
Oil  2-8 current trend neutral
Heating Oil 1-3 Current trend up

Gasoline 12-21 current trend up
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 12-14 current trend up

Europe 1-18 current trend up
China: 1-17 current trend upl
Brazil 1-17 current trend up
Japan 1-18 current trend up
India 1-17 current trend up
Russia 1-18  current trend upl
India 1-17 current trend up
Total world markets 1-17 current trend up

Intermediate Term Trends
Dollar:Up
US Bonds: Up
Emerging Markets: Up 
Total World Stocks: Neutral
Emerging Debt: Up
World Bonds: Neutral
Oil: Up
Gold: Up
Silver: Down
Commodities: Down
China: Up
Brazil: Up
India: Down
Europe: Down

Trend changes today:

World Stocks: 
Currencies:,Oil down
Commodities:
World Debt