Posting Times

Posts will be between 8:30 PM to 10:00 PM PST
Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Wednesday, February 8, 2012

An economy that runs on handouts

News Highlights


The Heritage foundation says that 67 million Americans are dependent on the government for some kind of government program. That is up 23% in the last 2 years.
This Federal spending accounts for 70% of the Federal budget. This shows that the economy is not working. These programs will contribute to future unemployment
and not create jobs.  Meanwhile, the stock market plugs away near 4 year highs and government interest rates that finance this whole mess at all time lows.  

Mikey


Key Indicators

Current trading range: 12500 -12903 DJI Close 12878
The Trends
Short term (50 hour) UP(41Hr) ...signal 2-1 12700
Current trend (50 day) Up (41 days)...signal 12-2-11 12019
Intermediate trend (50 week) Up (10 weeks)...signal 12-19-11 12294
Long term trend (50 month) Up (15 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
IBD Current trend 12-20 Up  (33 days) Market in confirmed uptrend 12103
Overbought/Oversold (+100 overbought/-100 oversold)
Volume(Millions) NYSE 763 NASDAQ 1918
Advance/Decline NYSE +488 NASDAQ +421 Mikey A/D line 47365
New Highs NYSE 211 NASDAQ 134  New Lows NYSE 8 NASDAQ 10
Mikey5 (+61)Neutral Mikey10 (+99)Neutral Mikey20 (+161) OB, Mikey50(+227) OB
% Stocks above 200 day ave 76% (above 50% uptrend)
Trader Psychology
Put/Call day .87, 10 day .79,  Put Premium .58 10 day .66,  
Bull/Bear Ratio 1.81 Bulls 52.1%, Bears 28.7%
Mutial Funds Buy/Redeem ratio 1.01
MACD  Hourly (27.03) Negative cross, Daily (+162.47),Positive cross 2-7-12,
Weekly (+277.36), Positive cross 10-24-11, Monthly (496.87) Positive Cross 9/1/09
VIX 18.16 VXZ 51.43 Mikey Fear 87 (80 Low 20 High) 

Averages (uptrend 20>50)
20 hour 12854 Rising/ Price above
50 hour 12782 Rising/Price above
20 day 12673 Rising/Price above
50 day 12332 Rising/ Price above
20 week 12067 Rising/ Price above
50 week 12043 Rising/ Price above
20 month 11780 Rising/Price above
50 month 10782 Flat/Price above

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 12883.95 +5.75 S/P 500 1349.96 +2.91 NYSE Comp 8082.98 +13.27
NASDAQ  2915.86 +11.78 DJT 5298.61 +24.72 DJU 452.48 +.42
US Debt Markets
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1056%  2 yr .2539% 5 Yr .8235% 10 yr 2.01 30 yr 3.14
Ave Mtg rates : 30 Yr 3.88% 30 Yr Rifi 3.96% 15 Yr 3.21% 5/1 ARM 2.88
IEF (US 7-10 yr) 104.90 +.06 TLT (20 yr) 116.26 -.01
MUB (NatlMuni) 112.39 +.57  Cal Muni (NCA)9.73 -.01
BND Total Bond Index 83.69 -.04
Commodities
CRB Commodities Index 314.77 -.23
Gold 1731.30 -17.30 Silver 33.70 -.49
Copper 3.91 +.05 Platinum 1668.10 +13.30
Oil 98.61 +.10  RBOB 2.98 +.07 Nat Gas 2.45 -.02
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.3178 -.0019  Pound 1.5687 -.0084 Swiss Franc 1.0815 -.0010
Yen  1.2776 -.0042 Aussie 1.0804 -.0006
Dollar Index 78.73 +.05
World Debt markets
BWX (Intl Treas) 60.42 +.05 PCY (Emerg debt) 27.56 -.06 IBND (Intl Corp)33.05 +.03



All Markets Current Trends 

World debt markets
US Bonds: 2-3 current trend down
US Natl Muni Markets:: 11-21 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 1-26 current trend up
Intl Corp Bonds 1-26 current trend up
Emerging Markets Debt: 1-26 current trend up
US High Yield 12-12 current trend up
US Preferred Stocks 11-30 current trend up
Currencies markets
US Dollar Index 1-26 current trend down
Aussie Dollar 1-10 current trend up
Euro 1-26 current trend up
Brit Pd 1-26 current trend upl
Swiss Franc: 1-27 current trend up
Jap Yen 1-27 current trend up
Canadian Dollar 1-18 current trend upl
Mexican Peso 1-18 current trend upl
Brazilian Real 12-12 current trend up
Indian Rupe 12-12 current trend up

Commodity index
(Broad based) 1-19  current trend up
Metals
Gold: .1-26 current trend up
Silver: 1-21 current trend up
Copper 1-17 current trend up
Platinum 1-18 current trend up
Palladium 1-17 current trend up
Agg, Fiber, Wood
Grains 1-24   Current trend up
Cotton 1-17 current trend upl
Livestock 1-24 current trend up
Coffee 2-7 current trend neutral
Sugar 1-18 Current trend up
Lumber 2-3 current trend up
Energy
Oil  2-8 current trend neutral
Heating Oil 1-3 Current trend up
Gasoline 12-21 current trend up
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 12-14 current trend up
Europe 1-18 current trend up
China: 1-17 current trend upl
Brazil 1-17 current trend up
Japan 1-18 current trend up
India 1-17 current trend up
Russia 1-18  current trend upl
India 1-17 current trend up
Total world markets 1-17 current trend up

Intermediate Term Trends
Dollar:Up
US Bonds: Up
UpEmerging Markets: Up 
Total World Stocks: Neutral
Emerging Debt: Up
World Bonds: Neutral
Oil: Up
Gold: Up
Silver: Down
Commodities: Down
China: Up
Brazil: Up
India: Down
Europe: Down

Trend changes today:
World Stocks: 
Currencies:,Oil down
Commodities:
World Debt
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