Fed is now officially up against it

News Highlights


Commodity prices are gaining traction and interest rates are creeping up. The Fed continues to prop up the numbers in stocks and the government continues to dummy up the economic numbers. The dollar is getting out of the way of the Euro rally that will bail out the banks in Europe.

The price of gasoline is well known by the public and is starting to call BS on the Feds strategy. What they want is a way to deflate the value of US debt so they can buy it back cheaper. That will take the form of higher rates and maybe a debt scare. They then can buy it back cheaper down the road.  Is this the time that they are going to do it?  It looks like it because the markets are starting to put the squeeze on. Oh by the way a lower dollar and falling US bonds helps out the Fed Central banker buddies in Europe move those newly minted Greece debt swap Euro bonds.  I wonder how much of that the Fed has?

In any event, as always, what I think means nothing. The trends call the tune. This blog is the only comprehensive listing of trends that I know. I list them because by trading with the trend you will stay out of trouble.  Regardless of what reality is, prices, can and do, trade for long periods of time against real world events. DON'T ARGUE WITH THESE TRENDS. If you believe something wait until the trend confirms it before you invest.

This feels a whole lot like the late 70's to me with spiking oil and gold prices.  I think the Fed and their buddies the banks have sold out of most of the assets they bought at the fire sale in 2008 and 2009. The decks are cleared for the meltdown. The only difference is the low rates which I think will be on their way up soon.

Mikey

Key Indicators

Current trading range: 12500 -13000 DJI Close 12984

 The Trends

MACD Crosses: Negative cross =consolidation/correction Positive cross=uptrend
Short term (50 hour) Up (33 Hr) ...signal 2-16 12850 
MACD  Hourly (+18.13)
Current trend (50 day) Up (51 days)...signal 12-2-11 12019
MACD Daily (+128.67),Negative cross 2-13
Intermediate trend (50 week) Up (12 weeks)...signal 12-19-11 12294
MACD Weekly (+312.32 ), Positive cross
Long term trend (50 month) Up (15 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
MACD Monthly (499.46) Positive Cross 9/1/09
IBD Current trend 12-20 Up  (40 days) Market in confirmed uptrend 12103
Volume(Millions) NYSE 758 NASDAQ 1707
Advance/Decline NYSE +1308 NASDAQ +1075 Mikey A/D line 49389
New Highs NYSE 152 NASDAQ 93 New Lows NYSE 0 NASDAQ 24
Overbought/Oversold (+100 overbought/-100 oversold)
Mikey5 +65 Neutral, Mikey10 +31 Neutral, Mikey20 +92 Neutral, Mikey50 +181 OB
% Stocks above 200 day ave 78% (above 50% uptrend)
Trader Psychology
Put/Call day .84, 10 day .76,  Put Premium .65 10 day .60,  
Bull/Bear Ratio 1.92 Bulls 51.1%, Bears 26.6%
Mutial Funds Buy/Redeem ratio 1.01
VIX 16.80 VXZ 54.71 Mikey Fear 93 (80 Low 20 High) 

Averages (uptrend 20>50)
20 hour 12962 Rising/ Price above
50 hour 12907 Rising/Price above
20 day 12837 Rising/Price above
50 day 12534 Rising/ Price above
20 week 12257 Rising/ Price above
50 week 12075 Rising/ Price above
20 month 11783 Flat/Price above
50 month 10783 Flat/Price above

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 12984.69 +46.02  S/P 500 1363.46 +5.80  NYSE Comp 8136.24 +41.85 NASDAQ  2956.98 +23.81 DJT 5161.65 +36.48 DJU 450.75 -1.59
US Debt Markets
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1323%  2 yr .3048% 5 Yr .8926% 10 yr 2.00 30 yr 3.14
Ave Mtg rates : 30 Yr 3.91% 30 Yr Rifi 3.98% 15 Yr 3.17% 5/1 ARM 2.87
IEF (US 7-10 yr) 105.06 +.15 TLT (20 yr) 116.78 +.04
MUB (NatlMuni) 111.40 -2.37   Cal Muni (NCA)9.88 +.01
BND Total Bond Index 83.78 +.04
Commodities
CRB Commodities Index 323.40 +.54  
Gold 1786.30 +15.00  Silver 35.55 +1.29  Copper 3.80 -.03 Platinum 1723 +2.20  
Oil 107.47 +1.55  RBOB 3.11 +.03 Nat Gas 2.62 -.02
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.3316 +.0131 Pound 1.5614 +.0077 Swiss Franc 1.0951 +.0109
Yen  1.2311 +.0055 Aussie 1.0747 +.0086 Canadian Dollar .9969 +.0025
Dollar Index 78.88
World Debt markets
BWX (Intl Treas) 60.29 +.34  PCY (Emerg debt) 27.87 +.02 IBND (Intl Corp)33.30 +.24


All Markets Current Trends 

US SECTORS

(Green up Red down White Neutral)

NASDAQ
DJ Trans
DJ Util
Long Bonds
Energy

Tech
Healthcare
Materials
Retail
Housing
Consumer Discrestionary
Consumer Staples
Airline
Metals and Mining
Gold Mining
Financial

World debt markets
US Bonds: 2-3 current trend down
US Natl Muni Markets:: 2-23 current trend neutral  I
Intl Treas Bonds 1-26 current trend up

Intl Corp Bonds 1-26 current trend up
Emerging Markets Debt: 1-26 current trend up
US High Yield 12-12 current trend up
US Preferred Stocks 11-30 current trend up
Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 1-26 current trend down
Aussie Dollar 1-10 current trend up
Euro 1-26 current trend up
Brit Pd 1-26 current trend upl
Swiss Franc: 1-27 current trend up
Jap Yen 1-27 current trend up
Canadian Dollar 1-18 current trend upl
Mexican Peso 1-18 current trend upl
Brazilian Real 12-12 current trend up
Indian Rupe 12-12 current trend up

Commodity index
(Broad based) 1-19  current trend up
Metals

Gold: .1-26 current trend up
Silver: 1-21 current trend up

Copper 1-17 current trend up
Platinum 1-18 current trend up
Palladium 1-17 current trend up
Agg, Fiber, Wood

Grains 1-24   Current trend up
Cotton 1-17 current trend upl

Livestock 1-24 current trend up
Coffee 9-22 current trend downl
Sugar 1-18 Current trend up

Lumber 2-3 current trend up
Energy
Oil  2-8 current trend neutral
Heating Oil 1-3 Current trend up

Gasoline 12-21 current trend up
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 12-14 current trend up

Europe 1-18 current trend up
China: 1-17 current trend upl
Brazil 1-17 current trend up
Japan 1-18 current trend up
India 1-17 current trend up
Russia 1-18  current trend upl
India 1-17 current trend up
Total world markets 1-17 current trend up

Intermediate Term Trends
Dollar:Up
US Bonds: Up
Emerging Markets: Up 
Total World Stocks: Up
Emerging Debt: Up
World Bonds: Neutral
Oil: Up
Gold: Up
Silver: Neutral
Commodities: Up
China: Up
Brazil: Up
India: Up
Europe :Up