Posting Times

Posts will be between 8:30 PM to 10:00 PM PST
Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Dollar holds support Gold / Silver tank

News Highlights


The Dollar held support today which is bad news for the virtual reality of false wealth. The idea that wealth is a virtual creation of the derivatives markets. That the markets can create wealth as the real economy slips away. Stocks and commodities, led by Gold and Silver sold off today as the Dollar rallied.  Just yesterday Gold and Silver appeared to be breaking out but reversed today.  The rats appear to be ready to run if the head rat (Bernanke) does not begin another QE program. Volume on the NYSE was heavy at 1.088 billion shares and NASDAQ volume rose to over 2 billion shares.

Mikey

Key Indicators

Current trading range: 12500 -13027 DJI Close 12952
MACD Crosses: Negative cross =consolidation/correction Positive cross=uptrend
Short term (50 hour) Up (60 Hr) ...signal 2-16 12850 
MACD  Hourly (+2.46)
Current trend (50 day) Up (62 days)...signal 12-2-11 12019
MACD Daily (+120.56),Negative cross 2-13
Intermediate trend (50 week) Up (13 weeks)...signal 12-19-11 12294
MACD Weekly (+325.60), Positive cross 10-24-11 
Long term trend (50 month) Up (16 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
MACD Monthly (+502.24 ) Positive Cross 9-1-09
IBD Current trend 12-20 Up  (49 days) Market in confirmed uptrend 12103
Volume(Millions) NYSE 1088 NASDAQ 2084
Advance/Decline NYSE -953 NASDAQ -1144 Mikey A/D line 49754
New Highs NYSE 176 NASDAQ 67 New Lows NYSE 12 NASDAQ 21
Overbought/Oversold (+100 overbought/-100 oversold)
Mikey5 +18 Neutral, Mikey10 +32 Neutral, Mikey20 +76 Neutral, Mikey50 +212 OB
% Stocks above 200 day ave 75% (above 50% uptrend)
Trader Psychology
Put/Call day .85, 10 day .82,  Put Premium .55 10 day .62,  
Bull/Bear Ratio 2.00 Bulls 51.1%, Bears 25.5%
Mutial Funds Buy/Redeem ratio 1.23
VIX 18.43 VXZ 55.30 Mikey Fear 86 (80 Low 20 High) 

Averages (uptrend 20>50)
20 hour 12993 Rising/ Price above
50 hour 12977 Rising/Price above
20 day 12889 Rising/Price above
50 day 12601 Rising/ Price above
20 week 12324 Rising/ Price above
50 week 12097 Rising/ Price above
20 month 11783 Rising/Price above
50 month 10783 Flat/Price above

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 12952.09 -53.05  S/P 500 1365.68 -6.50 NYSE Comp 8113.25 -58.30 NASDAQ  3966.89 -19.87 DJT 5153.16 -12.03 DJU 451.54 +.54
US Debt Markets
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1344%  2 yr .3011% 5 Yr .8477% 10 yr 1.99 30 yr 3.10
Ave Mtg rates : 30 Yr 3.85% 30 Yr Rifi 3.92 % 15 Yr 3.14% 5/1 ARM 2.82
IEF (US 7-10 yr) 105.12 -.41 TLT (20 yr) 117.50 -.65
MUB (NatlMuni) 110.48 +.03 Cal Muni (NCA)10.12 -.03
BND Total Bond Index 83.90 -.08
Commodities
CRB Commodities Index 322.43 -.69  

Gold 1711.30 -77.10 Silver 34.65 -2.49 Copper 3.87 -.04 Platinum 1692.60 -30.90
Oil 107.07 +.55 RBOB 3.26 Nat Gas 2.61 +.09
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.3260 -.0142 Pound 1.5774 +.0009
Swiss Franc 1.0912 -.0116
Yen  1.2102 -.0123 Aussie 1.0748 -.0046 Canadian Dollar .1.0052 +.0061
Dollar Index 78.76 +.56
World Debt markets
BWX (Intl Treas) 60.50 -.15  PCY (Emerg debt) 28.07 +.05  IBND (Intl Corp)33.48 -.31


All Markets Current Trends 

US SECTORS

(Green up Red down White Neutral)

NASDAQ
DJ Trans
DJ Util
Long Bonds
Energy
Tech
Healthcare
Materials
Retail
Housing
Consumer Discrestionary
Consumer Staples
Airline
Metals and Mining
Financial

World debt markets
US Bonds: 2-3 current trend neutral

US Natl Muni Markets:2-23 current trend neutral  

Intl Treas Bonds 1-26 current trend up
Intl Corp Bonds 1-26 current trend up
Emerging Markets Debt: 1-26 current trend up
US High Yield 12-12 current trend up
US Preferred Stocks 11-30 current trend up
Currencies markets
US Dollar Index 1-26 current trend down
Aussie Dollar 1-10 current trend up
Euro 1-26 current trend up
Brit Pd 1-26 current trend upl
Swiss Franc: 1-27 current trend up
Jap Yen 1-27 current trend up
Canadian Dollar 1-18 current trend upl
Mexican Peso 1-18 current trend upl
Brazilian Real 12-12 current trend up
Indian Rupe 12-12 current trend up

Commodity index
(Broad based) 1-19  current trend up
Metals
Gold: .1-26 current trend up
Silver: 1-21 current trend up
Copper 1-17 current trend up
Platinum 1-18 current trend up
Palladium 1-17 current trend up
Agg, Fiber, Wood
Grains 1-24   Current trend up
Cotton 1-17 current trend upl
Livestock 1-24 current trend up
Coffee 2-7 current trend neutral
Sugar 1-18 Current trend up
Lumber 2-3 current trend up
Energy
Oil  2-14 Current trend up
Heating Oil 1-3 Current trend up
Gasoline 12-21 current trend up
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 12-14 current trend up
Europe 1-18 current trend up
China: 1-17 current trend upl
Brazil 1-17 current trend up
Japan 1-18 current trend up
India 1-17 current trend up
Russia 1-18  current trend upl
India 1-17 current trend up
Total world markets 1-17 current trend up

Intermediate Term Trends
Dollar:Up
US Bonds: Up
Emerging Markets: Up 
Total World Stocks: UP

Emerging Debt: Up
World Bonds: Neutral
Oil: Up
Gold: Up
Silver: Up

Commodities: Up
China: Up
Brazil: Up
India: Up
Europe: Up

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