Dollar and US Bonds sinking in the sunset

News Highlights


I mentioned on this blog on Jan 23rd that the Central banks were moving from the dollar and US bonds to the Euro and European states bonds to solve the most recent crisis. That moved continued on its merry way today with the new QE in progress. The new QE is the US for Euro bond swaps. The Central banks have this one strategy down pat. All they need to do is to get financial control over a country and then they will solve their financial  problems. That, of course, means that those countries lose the right to manage their own finances. You can also read that to mean soverenty. The US is in the same boat.


The other beneficiaries are the commodities and stocks and foreign bonds. You can see that the trend is up on these as the dollar falls. The US stock trend remains in an uptrend. US bonds appear to have topped and are trending lower, regardless of the Feds plans to keep rates low for 2 more years.

Put/Call ratios are .72 and .78 10 day. Put Premiums fell to .58 today and .68 10 day. The Mikey oscillators 5,10, 20, 50 are all overbought and the Mikey fear indicator is 89 meaning fear is gone. These numbers are very similar to the same time in Feb of 2011. Go back and look at the charts in this time frame. I suspect that this is shaping up the same way it did then. They look the same for just about every asset type.
PS Coffee and Oil are the only 2 commodities not in an uptrend. I doubt that it will remain that way very long.

Mikey


Key Indicators

Current trading range: 12500 -12903 DJI Close 12878
The Trends
Short term (50 hour) UP(34 Hr) ...signal 2-1 12700
Current trend (50 day) Up (46 days)...signal 12-2-11 12019
Intermediate trend (50 week) Up (10 weeks)...signal 12-19-11 12294
Long term trend (50 month) Up (15 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
IBD Current trend 12-20 Up  (32 days) Market in confirmed uptrend 12103
Overbought/Oversold (+100 overbought/-100 oversold)
Volume(Millions) NYSE 720 NASDAQ 1,745
Advance/Decline NYSE +394 NASDAQ -141 Mikey A/D line 47365
Mikey5 (+97)Neutral Mikey10 (+120)OB Mikey20 (+177) OB, Mikey50(+218) OB
% Stocks above 200 day ave 75% (above 50% uptrend)
Trader Psychology
Put/Call day .72, 10 day .78,  Put Premium .58 10 day .68,  
Bull/Bear Ratio 1.65 Bulls 48.9%, Bears 29.6%
Mutial Funds Buy/Redeem ratio 1.01
MACD  Hourly (36.44) Positive cross, Daily (+161.28),Positive cross 2-7-12,
Weekly (+303.04), Positive cross 10-24-11, Monthly (496.59) Positive Cross 9/1/09
VIX 17.65 VXZ 50.89 Mikey Fear 89 (80 Low 20 High) 

Averages (uptrend 20>50)
20 hour 12846 Rising/ Price above
50 hour 12744 Rising/Price above
20 day 12652 Rising/Price above
50 day 12043 Rising/ Price above
20 week 12067 Rising/ Price above
50 week 12043 Rising/ Price above
20 month 11780 Rising/Price above
50 month 10782 Flat/Price above

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 12878.20 +33.07  S/P 500 1347.05 +2.72 NYSE Comp 8069.71 +21.68 NASDAQ  2904.08 +2.09 DJT 5323.33 10.92 DJU 452.06 +2.11
US Debt Markets
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1081%  2 yr .2460% 5 Yr .8043% 10 yr 1.97 30 yr 3.16
Ave Mtg rates : 30 Yr 3.88% 30 Yr Rifi 3.96% 15 Yr 3.20% 5/1 ARM 2.88
IEF (US 7-10 yr) 104.84 -.68 TLT (20 yr) 116.48 -1.25
MUB (NatlMuni) 111.82 +.33  Cal Muni (NCA)9.74 -.08
BND Total Bond Index 83.73 -.13
Commodities
CRB Commodities Index 315.00 +.80  
Gold 1748.40 +23.60 Silver 34.19 +.44
Copper 3.86 uc Platinum 1654.80+25.00
Oil 98.51 +1.60  RBOB 2.92 -.01 Nat Gas 2.47 -.09
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.3191 +0118 Pound 1.5769 +.0071 Swiss Franc 1.0825 +.0081
Yen  1.2818 -.0032 Aussie 1.0815 +.0076
Dollar Index 78.68 -.34
World Debt markets
BWX (Intl Treas) 60.41 +.16 PCY (Emerg debt) 27.62 -.05 IBND (Intl Corp)33.02 +.25


All Markets Current Trends 

World debt markets
US Bonds: 2-3 current trend down
US Natl Muni Markets:: 11-21 current trend up

Intl Treas Bonds 1-26 current trend up
Intl Corp Bonds 1-26 current trend up
Emerging Markets Debt: 1-26 current trend up
US High Yield 12-12 current trend up
US Preferred Stocks 11-30 current trend up
Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 1-26 current trend down
Aussie Dollar 1-10 current trend up
Euro 1-26 current trend up
Brit Pd 1-26 current trend upl
Swiss Franc: 1-27 current trend up
Jap Yen 1-27 current trend up
Canadian Dollar 1-18 current trend upl
Mexican Peso 1-18 current trend upl
Brazilian Real 12-12 current trend up
Indian Rupe 12-12 current trend up

Commodity index
(Broad based) 1-19  current trend up
Metals

Gold: .1-26 current trend up
Silver: 1-21 current trend up

Copper 1-17 current trend up
Platinum 1-18 current trend up
Palladium 1-17 current trend up
Agg, Fiber, Wood

Grains 1-24   Current trend up
Cotton 1-17 current trend upl

Livestock 1-24 current trend up
Coffee 2-7 current trend neutral
Sugar 1-18 Current trend up

Lumber 2-3 current trend up
Energy
Oil  2-2 current trend down
Heating Oil 1-3 Current trend up

Gasoline 12-21 current trend up
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 12-14 current trend up

Europe 1-18 current trend up
China: 1-17 current trend upl
Brazil 1-17 current trend up
Japan 1-18 current trend up
India 1-17 current trend up
Russia 1-18  current trend upl
India 1-17 current trend up
Total world markets 1-17 current trend up

Intermediate Term Trends
Dollar:Up
US Bonds: Up
UpEmerging Markets: Up 
Total World Stocks: Neutral
Emerging Debt: Up
World Bonds: Neutral
Oil: Up
Gold: Up
Silver: Down
Commodities: Down
China: Up
Brazil: Up
India: Down
Europe: Down

Trend changes today:

World Stocks: 
Currencies:,Oil down
Commodities:
World Debt