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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Monday, January 23, 2012

World bonds turning up as dollar US bonds sell off

News Highlights


The tide is changing with the dollar going out and the world currencies coming in. I believe this is the result of the most recent crisis resolution.  It is now the the Feds turn to print dollars and inflate the value of the Euro to bail out Europe. Stay tuned to the US debt crisis coming to you in a financial market near you. That of course will be a ways off but that is the apparent plan to solve the world debt crisis.  A game of ping pong with world currencies and sovereign debt.

US Long bonds

Intl Treasury

Mikey 5 108, Mikey10 137, and Mikey 20 163 are all overbought the last time was July 7th.

DJI

Mikey


Key Indicators

Current trading range: 12280 -12750 DJI Close 12720
The Trends
Short term (50 hour) Up (22 days) ...signal 12-2 12102
Current trend (50 day) Up (32 days)...signal 12-2-11 12019
Intermediate trend (50 week) Up (7 weeks)...signal 12-19-11 12294
Long term trend (50 month) Up (16 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
IBD Current trend 12-20 Up  (21 days) Market in confirmed uptrend 12103
Overbought/Oversold (+100 overbought/-100 oversold)
Mikey5 (+108)Overbought Mikey10 (+137)OB Mikey20 (+163) OB, Mikey50 (+62) Neut
% Stocks above 200 day ave 59% (above 50% uptrend)
Trader Psychology
Put/Call day .83, 10 day .74,  Put Premium .65 10 day .72,  
Bull/Bear Ratio 1.67 Bulls 50.0%, Bears 29.8%
Mutial Funds Buy/Redeem ratio 1.01
MACD  Daily (+176.62),Positive cross 12-22, Weekly (+218.01), Positive cross 10-24
VIX 18.67 VXZ 54.70 Mikey Fear 85 (80 Low 20 High) 
Averages (uptrend 20>50)
20 hour 12669 Rising/ Price above
50 hour 12552 Rising/Price above
20 day 12415 Rising/Price above
50 day 12092 Rising/ Price above
20 week 11897 Rising/ Price above
50 week 12019 Rising/ Price above
20 month 11628 Rising/Price above
50 month 10791 Flat/Price above

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 12708.82 -11.66 S/P 500 1316.00 +.62 NYSE Comp 7855.52 +26.19 NASDAQ  2784.17 -2.53 DJT 5240.94 -39.81 DJU 449.76 +1.22
US Debt Markets
US Gov rates: 6 mo .0729%  2 yr .2345% 5 Yr .8960 % 10 yr 2.05 30 yr 3.12
Ave Mtg rates : 30 Yr 3.95% 30 Yr Rifi 4.02% 15 Yr 3.27% 5/1 ARM 2.90
IEF (US 7-10 yr) 104.22 -.23 TLT (20 yr) 116.24 -.74
MUB (NatlMuni) 110.76 +.23  Cal Muni (NCA)9.49 +.03
BND Total Bond Index 83.27-.10
Commodities
CRB Commodities Index 312.13 +2.22
Gold 1678.30 +14.30  Silver 32.27 +.60 Copper 3.80 +.06 Platinum 1561.10 +29.10
Oil 99.58 +1.25 RBOB 2.77 -.01 Nat Gas 2.53 +.19
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.2983 +.0104 Pound 1.5450 +.0013 Swiss Franc 1.0658 +.0093
Yen  1.2788 uc Aussie 1.0562 +.00858  
Dollar Index 49.94 -.46  
World Debt markets
BWX (Intl Treas 59.25 +.02 PCY (Emerg debt) 27.15 +.08  IBND (Intl Corp)31.99 +.29



All Markets Current Trends 

World debt markets
US Bonds: 1-12 current trend up
US Natl Muni Markets:: 11-21 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 11-9 current trend down
Intl Corp Bonds 1-20 current trend neutral
Emerging Markets Debt: 11-21 current trend down
US High Yield 12-12 current trend up
US Preferred Stocks 11-30 current trend up
Currencies markets
US Dollar Index 11-14 current trend up
Aussie Dollar 1-10 current trend up
Euro 11-14 current trend down
Brit Pd 11-21 current trend down
Swiss Franc: 10-27 current trend down
Jap Yen 1-10 current trend up
Canadian Dollar 1-18 current trend upl
Mexican Peso 1-18 current trend neutral
Brazilian Real 12-12 current trend up
Indian Rupe 12-12 current trend up

Commodity index (Broad based) 1-19  current trend up
Metals
Gold: .12-20  current trend neutral
Silver: 12-20 current trend up
Copper 1-17 current trend up
Platinum 1-18 current trend up
Palladium 1-17 current trend up
Agg, Fiber, Wood
Grains  Current trend down
Cotton 1-17 current trend upl
Livestock 12-7 current trend neutral
Coffee 9-21 current trend down
Sugar 1-18 Current trend up
Lumber 12-28 current trend neutral
Energy
Oil 12-21 current trend neutral
Heating Oil 1-3 Current trend up
Gasoline 12-21 current trend up
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down
World Stock markets
US Stocks: 12-14 current trend up
Europe 1-18 current trend up
China: 1-17 current trend upl
Brazil 1-17 current trend up
Japan 1-18 current trend up
India 1-17 current trend up
Russia 1-18  current trend upl
Emerging Markets: 1-17 current trend up
Total world markets 1-17 current trend up

Intermediate Term Trends
Dollar:Up
US Bonds: Up
World Bonds: Down
US Stocks Up
Commodities: Down
Oil: Up
Gold: Down
Silver: Down
Emerging Debt: Neutral
Emerging Markets: Down
World Stocks: Down 

Trend changes today:
World Stocks: 
Currencies:,
Commodities:Sugar to up Commodities to up
World Debt :US long term to neutral
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