Posting Times

Posts will be between 8:30 PM to 10:00 PM PST
Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Friday, January 6, 2012

Story is turning up

News Highlights
200,000 jobs added unemployment falls to 8.5%
ECB buys Spanish and Italian bonds
Tech stocks lead market
Tech expo next Tuesday
Iran plans war drills, draw comments from western nations

Jobs data is getting better, believe it or not. It doesn't matter if it is true or not, that is the story. The ECB is buying Italian and Spanish bonds. They WILL make money on these bonds. The Euro problem is where the US was in Jan 2009.


Mikey

Key Indicators

The Trends
Short term (50 hour) Up (12 days) 12-2 12102
Current trend (50 day) Up (22 days)...signal 12-2-11 12019
Intermediate trend (50 week) Up (3 weeks)...signal 12-19-11 12294
Long term trend (50 month) Up (12 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
IBD Current trend 12-20 Up  (11 days) Market in confirmed uptrend 12103

Overbought/Oversold (+100 overbought/-100 oversold)
Mikey10 (+91) Neutral Mikey20 (+40) Neutral, Mikey50 (+43) Neutral
% Stocks above 200 day ave 44% (above 50% uptrend)

Trader Psychology
Put/Call day .86 10 day .71,  Put Premium .71 10 day .97,  
Bull/Bear Ratio 1.71 Mutial Funds Buy/Redeem ratio 1.02
MACD  Daily (+147.17),Positive cross 12-22, Weekly (+115.80), Positive cross 10-24
VIX 20.63 VXZ 57.10  Mikey Fear 77 (80 Low 20 High) 

Averages (uptrend 20>50)
20 hour 12381 Falling/ Price below
50 hour 12322 Rising/Price above
20 day 12134 Rising/Price above
50 day 11986  Rising/ Price above
20 week 11680 Rising/ Price above50 week 11986 Rising/ Price above
20 month 11611 Rising/Price above
50 month 10784 Falling/Price above

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 12359.92 -55.78 S/P 500 1277.81 -3.25
NYSE Comp 7557.68 -42.29 NASDAQ2674.22 +4.36
S/P Small Cap 420.18 -1.33 Russell 2000 749.71 -2.58
DJT 5069.03 -2.18 DJU 451.20 -2.68
US Debt Markets
US Gov rates: 6 mo .0508%  2 yr .2559% 5 Yr .8524% 10 yr 1.96 30 yr 3.01
Ave Mtg rates : 30 Yr 3.94 % 30 Yr Rifi 4.01% 15 Yr 3.28% 5/1 ARM 2.88
IEF (US 7-10 yr) 105.01 +.42 TLT (20 yr) 118.60 +.80
MUB (NatlMuni) 110.56 +1.51 Cal Muni (NCA)9.50 +.02
BND Total Bond Index 83.34 +.05
Commodities
CRB Commodities Index 309.48 +.94
Gold 1616.80 -3.30 Silver 28.68 -.61 Copper 3.43 uc Platinum 1408.20 -9.80
Oil 101.56 -.25  RBOB 2.75 +.02 Nat Gas 3.06 +.08
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.2670 -.0075 Pound 1.5302 -.0077 Swiss Franc 1.0340 -.0030
Yen  1.2789 +.0043 Aussie 1.0235 -.0035
Dollar Index 81.59 +.34 
World Debt markets
BWX (Intl Treas)57.90 -.33 PCY (Emerg debt)27.08 -.05 IBND (Intl Corp) 31.04 -.16


All Markets Current Trends 

World debt markets
US Bonds: 12-14  current trend up
US Natl Muni Markets:: 11-21 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 11-9 current trend down
Intl Corp Bonds 1-3-12 current trend neutral
Emerging Markets Debt: 11-21 current trend up
US High Yield 12-12 current trend up
US Preferred Stocks 11-30 current trend neutral

Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 11-14 current trend up
Aussie Dollar 12-12 current trend neutral
Euro 11-14 current trend down
Brit Pd 11-21 current trend down
Swiss Franc: 10-27 current trend down
Jap Yen 12-30 current trend neutral
Canadian Dollar 12-30  current trend neutral
Mexican Peso 12-12 current trend down 
Brazilian Real 12-12 current trend down
Indian Rupe 11-21 current trend down


Commodity index (Broad based) 1-4 current trend neutral
Metals
Gold: .12-11  current trend down
Silver: 12-11 current trend down
Copper 12-12 current trend neutral
Platinum 11-17 current trend down
Palladium 12-14 current trend neutral
Agg, Fiber, Wood
Grains  Current trend up
Cotton 10-21 current trend neutral
Livestock 12-7 current trend neutral
Coffee 9-21 current trend down
Sugar 1-4 Current trend neutral
Lumber 12-28 current trend neutral
Energy
Oil 12-21 current trend up
Heating Oil 1-3 Current trend up
Gasoline 12-21 current trend up
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 12-14 current trend up
Europe 1-03-12 current trend neutral
China: 1-03 current trend neutral
Brazil 1-03 current trend neutral
Japan 1-03 current trend neutral
India 11-9 current trend down
Russia 12-9  current trend down
Emerging Markets: 1-03 current trend neutral
Total world markets 1-03 current trend neutral

Intermediate Term Trends

Dollar:Up
US Bonds: Up
World Bonds: Down
US Stocks Up
Commodities: Down
Oil: Up
Gold: Down
Silver: Down
Emerging Debt: Neutral
Emerging Markets: Down
World Stocks: Down 

Trend changes today:

World Stocks: 
Currencies:,
Commodities:
World Debt :


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