Posting Times

Posts will be between 8:30 PM to 10:00 PM PST
Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Friday, January 20, 2012

Silver trending up Gold trend to neutral

News Highlights


Oil trend to neutral
Gold to neutral
Silver to up

Stocks continued to make multimonth new highs and are nearing the highs of July last year. Bond yields rose and the Euro rallied back above 130 as Central banks swap to Euro to profit from the most recent save the countries auction.  Gold and Silver played catch up with other commodities and the Silver trend turned up. Oil traded below the 50 day average an is now trend neutral. Options expired today and in an unusual pattern traded up all week. Mikey 10 and 20 both are clearly over bought and Put/Call ratios are very skinny at .74 and .72 on Put premium on the 10 day. 

Mikey


Key Indicators

Current trading range: 12280 -12750 DJI Close 12720
The Trends
Short term (50 hour) Up (21 days) ...signal 12-2 12102
Current trend (50 day) Up (31 days)...signal 12-2-11 12019
Intermediate trend (50 week) Up (6 weeks)...signal 12-19-11 12294
Long term trend (50 month) Up (12 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
IBD Current trend 12-20 Up  (20 days) Market in confirmed uptrend 12103
Overbought/Oversold (+100 overbought/-100 oversold)
Mikey5 (+74)Neut Mikey10 (+123)OB Mikey20 (+166) OB, Mikey50 (+72) Neut
% Stocks above 200 day ave 58% (above 50% uptrend)
Trader Psychology
Put/Call day .74, 10 day .74,  Put Premium .65 10 day .72,  
Bull/Bear Ratio 1.67 Bulls 50.0%, Bears 29.8%
Mutial Funds Buy/Redeem ratio 1.01
MACD  Daily (+151.57),Positive cross 12-22, Weekly (+186.19), Positive cross 10-24
VIX 18.28 VXZ 55.50 Mikey Fear 80 (80 Low 20 High) 
Averages (uptrend 20>50)
20 hour 12615 Rising/ Price above
50 hour 12512 Rising/Price above
20 day 12385 Rising/Price above
50 day 12081 Rising/ Price above
20 week 11811 Rising/ Price above
50 week 12011 Flat/ Price above
20 month 11629 Rising/Price above
50 month 10791 Flat/Price above

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 12720.48 +96.50 S/P 500 1315.38 +.88 NYSE Comp 7829.33 +9.96 
NASDAQ  2786.70 -1.63 DJT 5280.75 -21.12 DJU 448.54 +1.30
US Debt Markets
US Gov rates: 6 mo .0686%  2 yr .2382% 5 Yr .8847% 10 yr 2.02 30 yr 3.10
Ave Mtg rates : 30 Yr 3.92% 30 Yr Rifi 4.00% 15 Yr 3.26% 5/1 ARM 2.88
IEF (US 7-10 yr) 104.45 -.36 TLT (20 yr) 116.94 -1.38
MUB (NatlMuni) 110.53 -.44 Cal Muni (NCA)9.46 -.04
BND Total Bond Index 83.37 -.16
Commodities
CRB Commodities Index 309.91 -2.05
Gold 1664.00 +9.50  Silver 31.67 +1.16 Copper 3.74 -.06 Platinum 1532 +14.30
Oil 98.33 -2.21 RBOB 2.78 -.03 Nat Gas 2.34 +.02
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.3012 +.0096 Pound 1.5441 +.0076 Swiss Franc 1.0566 -.0024
Yen  1.2788 +.0026 Aussie 1.0504 +.0064
Dollar Index 80.40 -.27
World Debt markets
BWX (Intl Treas 59.23 +.29 PCY (Emerg debt) 27.07 +.07 IBND (Intl Corp) 31.70 uc


All Markets Current Trends 

World debt markets
US Bonds: 1-12 current trend up
US Natl Muni Markets:: 11-21 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 11-9 current trend down
Intl Corp Bonds 1-20 current trend neutral
Emerging Markets Debt: 11-21 current trend down
US High Yield 12-12 current trend up
US Preferred Stocks 11-30 current trend up
Currencies markets
US Dollar Index 11-14 current trend up
Aussie Dollar 1-10 current trend up
Euro 11-14 current trend down
Brit Pd 11-21 current trend down
Swiss Franc: 10-27 current trend down
Jap Yen 1-10 current trend up
Canadian Dollar 1-18 current trend upl
Mexican Peso 1-18 current trend neutral
Brazilian Real 12-12 current trend up
Indian Rupe 12-12 current trend up

Commodity index (Broad based) 1-19  current trend up
Metals
Gold: .12-20  current trend neutral
Silver: 12-20 current trend up
Copper 1-17 current trend up
Platinum 1-18 current trend up
Palladium 1-17 current trend up
Agg, Fiber, Wood
Grains  Current trend down
Cotton 1-17 current trend upl
Livestock 12-7 current trend neutral
Coffee 9-21 current trend down
Sugar 1-18 Current trend up
Lumber 12-28 current trend neutral
Energy
Oil 12-21 current trend neutral
Heating Oil 1-3 Current trend up
Gasoline 12-21 current trend up
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down
World Stock markets
US Stocks: 12-14 current trend up
Europe 1-18 current trend up
China: 1-17 current trend upl
Brazil 1-17 current trend up
Japan 1-18 current trend up
India 1-17 current trend up
Russia 1-18  current trend upl
Emerging Markets: 1-17 current trend up
Total world markets 1-17 current trend up

Intermediate Term Trends
Dollar:Up
US Bonds: Up
World Bonds: Down
US Stocks Up
Commodities: Down
Oil: Up
Gold: Down
Silver: Down
Emerging Debt: Neutral
Emerging Markets: Down
World Stocks: Down 

Trend changes today:
World Stocks: 
Currencies:,
Commodities:Sugar to up Commodities to up
World Debt :US long term to neutral
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