Posting Times

Posts will be between 8:30 PM to 10:00 PM PST
Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Thursday, January 19, 2012

Rates headed up...Long US and DJ Utilities fall to neutral..Stocks at 6 month highs

News Highlights


Nat Gas in a freefall closes at 2.32
Long bonds and utility stocks head south
Stocks make 6 month highs
Euro appears to be bottoming
Google misses after close
Commodities turn up


The play is equities and the Euro bond market. The all clear is being given and the swap out of US bonds and dollars appears to have begun. The Long bonds and the Utilities stocks appear to be reversing and are rated neutral after a nice run that started in August with the large US bond offering. Stocks continued to eat into new high territory closing at 6 month highs.

Mikey


Key Indicators

Current trading range: 11760 -12600
The Trends
Short term (50 hour) Up (20 days) 12-2 12102
Current trend (50 day) Up (30 days)...signal 12-2-11 12019
Intermediate trend (50 week) Up (5 weeks)...signal 12-19-11 12294
Long term trend (50 month) Up (12 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
IBD Current trend 12-20 Up  (19 days) Market in confirmed uptrend 12103
Overbought/Oversold (+100 overbought/-100 oversold)
Mikey5 (+79)Neut Mikey10 (+126)OB Mikey20 (+192) OB, Mikey50 (+70) Neut
% Stocks above 200 day ave 57% (above 50% uptrend)
Trader Psychology
Put/Call day .68, 10 day .70,  Put Premium .64 10 day .73,  
Bull/Bear Ratio 1.67 Bulls 50.0%, Bears 29.8%
Mutial Funds Buy/Redeem ratio 1.01
MACD  Daily (+159.19),Positive cross 12-22, Weekly (+178.66), Positive cross 10-24
VIX 19.87 VXZ 56.44 Mikey Fear 80 (80 Low 20 High) 
Averages (uptrend 20>50)
20 hour 12556 Rising/ Priceabove
50 hour 12482 Rising/Price above
20 day 12354 Rising/Price above
50 day 12068 Rising/ Price above
20 week 11806 Rising/ Price
50 week 12009 Flat/ Price above
20 month 11624 Rising/Price above
50 month 10789 Flat/Price above

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 12623.98 +45.03  S/P 500 1314.50 +6.46 NYSE Comp 7819.37 +52.42  
NASDAQ  2788.33 +18.62  DJT 5301.87 +83.69 DJU 447.24 -4.51
US Debt Markets
US Gov rates: 6 mo .0712%  2 yr .2301% 5 Yr .8539% 10 yr 1.97 30 yr 3.03
Ave Mtg rates : 30 Yr 3.91% 30 Yr Rifi 3.97% 15 Yr 3.24% 5/1 ARM 2.87
IEF (US 7-10 yr) 104.81 -.63 TLT (20 yr) 118.55 -1.42
MUB (NatlMuni) 110.97 +.14 Cal Muni (NCA)9.50 -.09
BND Total Bond Index 83.55 -.06
Commodities
CRB Commodities Index 311.96 +1.45  
Gold 1654.50 -3.80  Silver 30.51 -.03 Copper 3.80 +.05 Platinum 1518.00 -7.30
Oil 100.39 -.20  RBOB 2.82 -.01 Nat Gas 2.32 -.15
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.2807 +.0126 Pound 1.5314 +.0105 Swiss Franc 1.0509 +.0116
Yen  1.2821 +.0005  Aussie 1.0448 +.0066
Dollar Index 80.67 -.51 
World Debt markets
BWX (Intl Treas 58.70 +.37  PCY (Emerg debt) 26.87 +.11 IBND (Intl Corp) 31.57 +.26

All Markets Current Trends 

World debt markets
US Bonds: 1-12 current trend up
US Natl Muni Markets:: 11-21 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 11-9 current trend down
Intl Corp Bonds 11-17 current trend down
Emerging Markets Debt: 11-21 current trend down
US High Yield 12-12 current trend up
US Preferred Stocks 11-30 current trend up
Currencies markets
US Dollar Index 11-14 current trend up
Aussie Dollar 1-10 current trend up
Euro 11-14 current trend down
Brit Pd 11-21 current trend down
Swiss Franc: 10-27 current trend down
Jap Yen 1-10 current trend up
Canadian Dollar 1-18 current trend upl
Mexican Peso 1-18 current trend neutral
Brazilian Real 12-12 current trend down
Indian Rupe 11-21 current trend down

Commodity index (Broad based) 1-19  current trend up
Metals
Gold: .12-11  current trend down
Silver: 12-11 current trend down
Copper 1-17 current trend up
Platinum 1-18 current trend up
Palladium 1-17 current trend up
Agg, Fiber, Wood
Grains  Current trend down
Cotton 1-17 current trend upl
Livestock 12-7 current trend neutral
Coffee 9-21 current trend down
Sugar 1-18 Current trend up
Lumber 12-28 current trend neutral
Energy
Oil 12-21 current trend up
Heating Oil 1-3 Current trend up
Gasoline 12-21 current trend up
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down
World Stock markets
US Stocks: 12-14 current trend up
Europe 1-18 current trend up
China: 1-17 current trend upl
Brazil 1-17 current trend up
Japan 1-18 current trend up
India 1-17 current trend up
Russia 1-18  current trend upl
Emerging Markets: 1-17 current trend up
Total world markets 1-17 current trend up

Intermediate Term Trends
Dollar:Up
US Bonds: Up
World Bonds: Down
US Stocks Up
Commodities: Down
Oil: Up
Gold: Down
Silver: Down
Emerging Debt: Neutral
Emerging Markets: Down
World Stocks: Down 

Trend changes today:
World Stocks: 
Currencies:,
Commodities:Sugar to up Commodities to up
World Debt :US long term to neutral
Posted by at

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)