Posting Times

Posts will be between 8:30 PM to 10:00 PM PST
Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Thursday, January 5, 2012

Churning at the highs

News Highlights
Retail Sales Beat Views But Margins are weak
Jobless claims fall 15000 to 372000
Euro drilled on crisis fears
Dollar index closes near 1 year high
Iran threatens to close gulf 

Jobs numbers tomorrow all trends still up
Puts very low .33 day/.66 10 day
Overbought/Oversold Mikey10 109
Ultra Short term.. up days up.. 11
Current Trend up.. days up.. 25
Intermediate Term up ..days up..25Long term Term..up 3 weeks

Mikey


Key Indicators
DJI Close 12415.70  
DJI Current Trading Range 11700 to 12478 Price as % of range 92
US Stock Indexes  Support 1 12151 Support 2 11700 Support 3 11200
Resistence 1 12400 Resistance 2 12800 Resistence 3 13132
Long term trend Up ...signal 12/1/10 11577
Intermediate trend Up...signal 12-19-11 12102
Current trend Up ...signal 12-14-11  12102
IBD Current trend 12-20 Market in confirmed uptrend 12103

Mikey5 (+95) Neutral, Mikey10 (+109) Overbought
Mikey20 (+46) Neutral, Mikey50 (+46) Neutral
Put/Call day .33 10 day .66,  Put Premium .76 10 day 1.00,  
Bull/Bear Ratio 1.71 Mutial Funds Buy/Redeem ratio 1.02
MACD  Daily (+145.92 ),Positive cross 12-22, Weekly (+120.14), Positive cross 10-24
VIX 21.48 VXZ 57.78 Mikey Fear 74 (80 Low 20 High) 
 % Stocks above 200 day ave 45% (above 50% uptrend)

Averages
20 day 12126 Rising/Price above
50 day 11973 Rising/ Price above
200 day 11953 Rising/ Price above
20 week 11683  Rising/ Price above
50 Week 11987 Rising/Price above
200 Week 10611 Rising/ Price above

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 12415.70 -2.72 S/P 500 1281.06 +3.76
NYSE Comp 7599.97 -12.18 NASDAQ 2669.86 +21.50
S/P Small Cap 421.51 +3.03 Russell 2000 752.29 +5.01
DJT 5071.21 -11.76 DJU 453.89 +.86
US Debt Markets
US Gov rates: 6 mo .0534%  2 yr .2638% 5 Yr .8782% 10 yr 1.98 30 yr 3.05
Ave Mtg rates : 30 Yr 3.94 % 30 Yr Rifi 4.01% 15 Yr 3.28% 5/1 ARM 2.88
IEF (US 7-10 yr) 104.59 +.02 TLT (20 yr) 118.25 -1.18
MUB (NatlMuni) 108.85 +.49 Cal Muni (NCA)9.48 uc
BND Total Bond Index 83.29 -.03
Commodities
CRB Commodities Index 308.54 -5.26 Gold 1620.10 +7.40
Silver 29.29 +.19  Copper 3.43 -.01 Platinum 1418 -7.30  
Oil 101.81 -1.41  RBOB 2.73 -.05 Nat Gas 2.98 -.12
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.2745 -.0151 Pound 1.5379 -.0115  Swiss Franc 1.0370 -.0117
Yen  1.2746 -.0087 Aussie 1.0273 -.0103
Dollar Index 81.24 +.76 
World Debt markets
BWX (Intl Treas)58.23 -.72 PCY (Emerg debt)27.13 -.14  IBND (Intl Corp) 31.20 -.29



All Markets Current Trends 

World debt markets
US Bonds: 12-14  current trend up
US Natl Muni Markets:: 11-21 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 11-9 current trend down
Intl Corp Bonds 1-3-12 current trend neutral
Emerging Markets Debt: 11-21 current trend up
US High Yield 12-12 current trend up
US Preferred Stocks 11-30 current trend neutral

Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 11-14 current trend up
Aussie Dollar 12-12 current trend neutral
Euro 11-14 current trend down
Brit Pd 11-21 current trend down
Swiss Franc: 10-27 current trend down
Jap Yen 12-30 current trend neutral
Canadian Dollar 12-30  current trend neutral
Mexican Peso 12-12 current trend down 
Brazilian Real 12-12 current trend down
Indian Rupe 11-21 current trend down


Commodity index (Broad based) 1-4 current trend neutral
Metals
Gold: .12-11  current trend down
Silver: 12-11 current trend down
Copper 12-12 current trend neutral
Platinum 11-17 current trend down
Palladium 12-14 current trend neutral
Agg, Fiber, Wood
Grains  Current trend up
Cotton 10-21 current trend neutral
Livestock 12-7 current trend neutral
Coffee 9-21 current trend down
Sugar 1-4 Current trend neutral
Lumber 12-28 current trend neutral
Energy
Oil 12-21 current trend up
Heating Oil 1-3 Current trend up
Gasoline 12-21 current trend up
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 12-14 current trend up
Europe 1-03-12 current trend neutral
China: 1-03 current trend neutral
Brazil 1-03 current trend neutral
Japan 1-03 current trend neutral
India 11-9 current trend down
Russia 12-9  current trend down
Emerging Markets: 1-03 current trend neutral
Total world markets 1-03 current trend neutral

Intermediate Term Trends

Dollar:Up
US Bonds: UpWorld Bonds: Down

US Stocks Up

Commodities: Down

Oil: Up

Gold: Down
Silver: Down

Emerging Debt: Neutral
Emerging Markets: Down
World Stocks: Down 

Trend changes today:

World Stocks: 
Currencies:,
Commodities:
World Debt :


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