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About this blog

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I am not a financial advisor and my picks are not recomendations. I was a stock broker for 19 years and have followed and traded the markets from 1977 to present. This blog is not for everyone, it is written through my eyes and from the prespective of the experiences I have had watching and listening to the markets for the past 34 years. This blog is an attempt to track market trends and comment on the financial story. I believe that this story is pure fiction designed to direct the flow of money in the financial markets. The financial markets are a casino run by big government and big business to recycle the money created by government back to its "rightful" owners. I will spend little time commenting on the state of the economy because of the misdirection this story creates. I follow trends because it takes my opinions out of the game and focuses my attention on price direction. The indicators and trend calls I make are my best educated guesses based on my experience. This blog is a work in progress and from time to time I will attempt to upgrade it by making changes I think will help.

Thursday, January 26, 2012

News Highlights


Gold returns to uptrend
US bonds trend down
US Dollar current trend down
Intl bonds current trend up
Intl treasuries current trend up
Emerging debt current trend up
   
I guess you can see the game of currencies and world bonds as Central banks sell dollars and US bonds for Euros and international debt. Lat week the international stock market turned up. US stocks are still near their highs and mrkets show little fear of a selloff.

Mikey


Key Indicators

Current trading range: 12280 -12750 DJI Close 12800
The Trends
Short term (50 hour) Up (25 days) ...signal 12-2 12102
Current trend (50 day) Up (38 days)...signal 12-2-11 12019
Intermediate trend (50 week) Up (9 weeks)...signal 12-19-11 12294
Long term trend (50 month) Up (16 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
IBD Current trend 12-20 Up  (24 days) Market in confirmed uptrend 12103
Overbought/Oversold (+100 overbought/-100 oversold)
Mikey5 (+71)Neutral Mikey10 (+120)OB Mikey20 (+150) OB, Mikey50 (+72) Neut
% Stocks above 200 day ave 64% (above 50% uptrend)
Trader Psychology
Put/Call day .92, 10 day .80,  Put Premium .73 10 day .72,  
Bull/Bear Ratio 1.74 Bulls 50.0%, Bears 28.7%
Mutial Funds Buy/Redeem ratio 1.01
MACD  Daily (+181.92 ),Positive cross 12-22, Weekly (+220.13), Positive cross 10-24
VIX 18.57 VXZ 54.49 Mikey Fear 86 (80 Low 20 High) 
Averages (uptrend 20>50)
20 hour 12706 Rising/ Price above
50 hour 12660 Rising/Price above
20 day 12486 Rising/Price above
50 day 12139 Rising/ Price above
20 week 11898 Rising/ Price above
50 week 12020 Rising/ Price above
20 month 11630 Rising/Price above
50 month 10792 Flat/Price above

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 12734.63 -24.22  S/P 500 1318.43 -7.63 NYSE Comp 7883.90 -30.91
NASDAQ  2805.28 -13.03 DJT 5302.85 +20.85 DJU 454.04 +.55

US Debt Markets
US Gov rates: 6 mo .0763%  2 yr .2147% 5 Yr .7840% 10 yr 1.95 30 yr 3.11
Ave Mtg rates : 30 Yr 3.92% 30 Yr Rifi 3.99% 15 Yr 3.24% 5/1 ARM 2.89
IEF (US 7-10 yr) 105.40 +.56 TLT (20 yr) 117.60 +1.13
MUB (NatlMuni) 112.55 +.74 Cal Muni (NCA)9.49 +.02
BND Total Bond Index 83.75 +.22

Commodities
CRB Commodities Index 317.42 +1.05

Gold 1726.70 +26.60 Silver 33.74 +.62 Copper 3.89 +.07 Platinum 1616.80 +37.10   
Oil 99.75 +.35 RBOB2.83 -.01 Nat Gas 2.64 -.09

US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.3053 -.0007 Pound 1.5538 +.0043
Swiss Franc 1.0728 +.0008
Yen  1.2705 +.0041 Aussie 1.0648 +.0016 Dollar Index 79.57 -.14
World Debt markets
BWX (Intl Treas 59.80 +.23 PCY (Emerg debt) 27.26 +.17 IBND (Intl Corp)32.52 +.14




All Markets Current Trends 

World debt markets
US Bonds: 1-26  current trend down
US Natl Muni Markets:11-21 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 1-26 current trend up
Intl Corp Bonds 1-26 current trend up
Emerging Markets Debt: 1-26 current trend up
US High Yield 12-12 current trend up
US Preferred Stocks 11-30 current trend up
Currencies markets
US Dollar Index 1-26 current trend down
Aussie Dollar 1-10 current trend up
Euro 1-26 current trend neutral
Brit Pd 1-26 current trend upl
Swiss Franc: 1-24 current trend neutral
Jap Yen 1-24 current trend down
Canadian Dollar 1-18 current trend upl
Mexican Peso 1-18 current trend neutral
Brazilian Real 12-12 current trend up
Indian Rupe 12-12 current trend up

Commodity index (Broad based) 1-19  current trend up
Metals
Gold: .1-26 current trend up
Silver: 1-21 current trend up
Copper 1-17 current trend up
Platinum 1-18 current trend up
Palladium 1-17 current trend up
Agg, Fiber, Wood
Grains 1-24   Current trend up
Cotton 1-17 current trend upl
Livestock 1-24 current trend up
Coffee 9-21 current trend down
Sugar 1-18 Current trend up
Lumber 12-28 current trend neutral
Energy
Oil 12-21 current trend neutral
Heating Oil 1-3 Current trend up
Gasoline 12-21 current trend up
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down
World Stock markets
US Stocks: 12-14 current trend up
Europe 1-18 current trend up
China: 1-17 current trend upl
Brazil 1-17 current trend up
Japan 1-18 current trend up
India 1-17 current trend up
Russia 1-18  current trend upl
1-17 current trend up
Total world markets 1-17 current trend up

Intermediate Term Trends
Dollar:Up
US Bonds: Up
World Bonds: Down
US Stocks Up
Commodities: Down
Oil: Up
Gold: Down
Silver: Down
Emerging Debt: Neutral
Emerging Markets: Down
World Stocks: Down 

Trend changes today:
World Stocks: 
Currencies:,
Commodities:
World Debt

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