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I am not a financial advisor and my picks are not recomendations. I was a stock broker for 19 years and have followed and traded the markets from 1977 to present. This blog is not for everyone, it is written through my eyes and from the prespective of the experiences I have had watching and listening to the markets for the past 34 years. This blog is an attempt to track market trends and comment on the financial story. I believe that this story is pure fiction designed to direct the flow of money in the financial markets. The financial markets are a casino run by big government and big business to recycle the money created by government back to its "rightful" owners. I will spend little time commenting on the state of the economy because of the misdirection this story creates. I follow trends because it takes my opinions out of the game and focuses my attention on price direction. The indicators and trend calls I make are my best educated guesses based on my experience. This blog is a work in progress and from time to time I will attempt to upgrade it by making changes I think will help.

Thursday, January 12, 2012

Mikey 10 and 20 overbought

News Highlights

1 million drop off employment rolls since end of recession
Holiday retail sales called lackluster gain .1%
Weekly jobless claims rise 24000 to 399000
Italian and Spanish bond sales robust..Euro rallies


The Mikey10 and 20 are overbought and the 10 day Put/Call average at .72 and the 10 day Put premium at a low .83 and the hourly up for 16 days a sell off would not surprise me here. The trend is still up on all time levels. Options expire next week.
Mikey

Key Indicators

The Trends
Short term (50 hour) Up (16 days) 12-2 12102
Current trend (50 day) Up (26 days)...signal 12-2-11 12019
Intermediate trend (50 week) Up (4 weeks)...signal 12-19-11 12294
Long term trend (50 month) Up (12 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
IBD Current trend 12-20 Up  (15 days) Market in confirmed uptrend 12103

Overbought/Oversold (+100 overbought/-100 oversold)
Mikey10 (+140) Overbought Mikey20 (+134) Overbought, Mikey50 (+55) Neutral
% Stocks above 200 day ave 50% (above 50% uptrend)

Trader Psychology
Put/Call day .80, 10 day .72,  Put Premium .76 10 day .83,  
Bull/Bear Ratio 1.71 Bulls 51.1%, Bears 29.8%
Mutial Funds Buy/Redeem ratio 1.01
MACD  Daily (+152.05 ),Positive cross 12-22, Weekly (+146.57), Positive cross 10-24
VIX 20.47 VXZ 56.48 Mikey Fear 78 (80 Low 20 High) 

Averages (uptrend 20>50)
20 hour 12443 Rising/ Price below
50 hour 12408 Rising/Price above
20 day 12215 Rising/Price above
50 day 12016 Rising/ Price above
20 week 11739 Rising/ Price
50 week 11999 Flat/ Price above
20 month 11616 Rising/Price above
50 month 10786 Flat/Price above

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 12471.02 +21.57 S/P 500 1295.50 +3.02 NYSE Comp 7681.26 +19.28
NASDAQ 2724.10 +13.94 S/P Small Cap 428.70 +1.08 Russell 2000 770.49 +3.25 DJT 5209.36 +13.18 DJU 451.54 -.04
US Debt Markets
US Gov rates: 6 mo .0559%  2 yr .2292% 5 Yr .8265% 10 yr 1.92 30 yr 2.97
Ave Mtg rates : 30 Yr 3.93% 30 Yr Rifi 3.99% 15 Yr 3.24% 5/1 ARM 2.88
IEF (US 7-10 yr) 105.00 -.42 TLT (20 yr) 119.68 -.18
MUB (NatlMuni) 110.40 +.07 Cal Muni (NCA)9.49 +.03
BND Total Bond Index 83.39 -.18
Commodities
CRB Commodities Index 309.86 -3.75

Gold 1647.70 +8.10 Silver 30.11 +.22
Copper 3.64 +.10 Platinum 1500.10 +2.50
Oil 99.10 -1.77  RBOB 2.73 -.03 Nat Gas 2.68 -.09
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.2769 +.0113 Pound 1.5213 +.0012
Swiss Franc 104.63 +0116
Yen  12827 +.0021 Aussie 1.0357 +.0038
Dollar Index 81.04 -.57
World Debt markets
BWX (Intl Treas 58.37 +.17 PCY (Emerg debt)26.97 uc IBND (Intl Corp) 31..56 +.40 

All Markets Current Trends 

World debt markets
US Bonds: 1-9 current trend neutral
US Natl Muni Markets:11-21 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 11-9 current trend down
Intl Corp Bonds 1-3-12 current trend neutral
Emerging Markets Debt: 11-21 current trend up
US High Yield 12-12 current trend up
US Preferred Stocks 11-30 current trend neutral

Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 11-14 current trend up
Aussie Dollar 1-10 current trend up
Euro 11-14 current trend down
Brit Pd 11-21 current trend down
Swiss Franc: 10-27 current trend down
Jap Yen 1-10 current trend up
Canadian Dollar 12-30  current trend neutral
Mexican Peso 1-10 current trend neutral
Brazilian Real 12-12 current trend down
Indian Rupe 11-21 current trend down


Commodity index (Broad based) 1-4 current trend neutral
Metals
Gold: .12-11  current trend down
Silver: 12-11 current trend down
Copper 12-12 current trend neutral
Platinum 11-17 current trend down
Palladium 12-14 current trend neutral
Agg, Fiber, Wood
Grains  Current trend up
Cotton 10-21 current trend neutral
Livestock 12-7 current trend neutral
Coffee 9-21 current trend down
Sugar 1-4 Current trend neutral
Lumber 12-28 current trend neutral
Energy
Oil 12-21 current trend up
Heating Oil 1-3 Current trend up
Gasoline 12-21 current trend up
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 12-14 current trend up
Europe 1-03-12 current trend neutral
China: 1-03 current trend neutral
Brazil 1-03 current trend neutral
Japan 1-03 current trend neutral
India 11-9 current trend down
Russia 12-9  current trend down
Emerging Markets: 1-03 current trend neutral
Total world markets 1-03 current trend neutral

Intermediate Term Trends

Dollar:Up
US Bonds: Up
World Bonds: Down
US Stocks Up
Commodities: Down
Oil: Up
Gold: Down
Silver: Down
Emerging Debt: Neutral
Emerging Markets: Down
World Stocks: Down 

Trend changes today:

World Stocks: 
Currencies:,Aussie up, Yen up, Peso neutral
Commodities:
World Debt :

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