Posting Times

Posts will be between 8:30 PM to 10:00 PM PST
Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Fed we will keep rates low... Has that helped?

News Highlights


The Fed promised to keep rate low until 2014 and says the economic growth is sub par. Rates have been low for the last 3 years and the economy is only hanging on. The low rates are not reaching the real economy and the world economy is weakening. The implication is that the Fed will continue to support the market and print dollars to do it. I don't believe this will happen but as long as the trend is up I won't fight it. I expect that this is the top of not only stocks but US bonds. I also think that rates will rise from here. However, again it is not what I think but what the markets do price wise that will put me in a trade. 
   
    The bottom line is that the Fed lies for a living and today was a big one. Watch for a trend change and pull the plug on long positions if it comes after the hot air that we saw today.


Mikey


Key Indicators

Current trading range: 12280 -12750 DJI Close 12800
The Trends
Short term (50 hour) Up (24 days) ...signal 12-2 12102
Current trend (50 day) Up (34 days)...signal 12-2-11 12019
Intermediate trend (50 week) Up (7 weeks)...signal 12-19-11 12294
Long term trend (50 month) Up (16 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
IBD Current trend 12-20 Up  (23 days) Market in confirmed uptrend 12103
Overbought/Oversold (+100 overbought/-100 oversold)
Mikey5 (+95)Neutral Mikey10 (+126)OB Mikey20 (+152) OB, Mikey50 (+94) Neut
% Stocks above 200 day ave 65% (above 50% uptrend)
Trader Psychology
Put/Call day .81, 10 day .79,  Put Premium .79 10 day .72,  
Bull/Bear Ratio 1.71 Bulls 50.0%, Bears 28.5%
Mutial Funds Buy/Redeem ratio 1.01
MACD  Daily (+178.60 ),Positive cross 12-22, Weekly (+215.26), Positive cross 10-24
VIX 18.31 VXZ 54.32 Mikey Fear 87 (80 Low 20 High) 
Averages (uptrend 20>50)
20 hour 12679 Rising/ Price above
50 hour 12624 Rising/Price above
20 day 12483 Rising/Price above
50 day 12138 Rising/ Price above
20 week 11895 Rising/ Price above
50 week 12019 Rising/ Price above
20 month 11628 Rising/Price above
50 month 10791 Flat/Price above

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 12758.85 +83.10  S/P 500 1326.06 +11.41 NYSE Comp 7914.81 +74.16
NASDAQ  2818.31 +31.67  DJT 5282.00 +76.46  DJU 453.49 +7.22

US Debt Markets
US Gov rates: 6 mo .0704%  2 yr .2186% 5 Yr .7919% 10 yr 1.97 30 yr 3.12
Ave Mtg rates : 30 Yr 3.95% 30 Yr Rifi 4.02% 15 Yr 3.27% 5/1 ARM 2.90
IEF (US 7-10 yr) 104.81 +.47 TLT (20 yr) 116.30 -.15
MUB (NatlMuni) 112.10 +1.03 Cal Muni (NCA)9.47 -.04
BND Total Bond Index 83.54 +.24

Commodities
CRB Commodities Index 316.37 +1.68  Gold 1700.10 +36.60 Silver 33.12 +1.15
Copper 3.82 +.02 Platinum 1579.60 +26.70  
Oil 99.40 +.45 RBOB 2.84 +.08  Nat Gas 2.73 +.17 

US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.3099 +.0126  Pound 1.5538 +.0043 Swiss Franc 1.0720 +.0084
Yen  1.2664 -.0001 Aussie 1.0632 Dollar Index 79.71 -.31

World Debt markets
BWX (Intl Treas 59.57 +.33 PCY (Emerg debt) 27.09 +.11 IBND (Intl Corp)32.38 +.40



All Markets Current Trends 

World debt markets
US Bonds: 1-12 current trend up
US Natl Muni Markets:: 11-21 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 11-9 current trend down
Intl Corp Bonds 1-20 current trend neutral
Emerging Markets Debt: 11-21 current trend down
US High Yield 12-12 current trend up
US Preferred Stocks 11-30 current trend up
Currencies markets
US Dollar Index 11-14 current trend up
Aussie Dollar 1-10 current trend up
Euro 11-14 current trend down
Brit Pd 11-21 current trend neutral
Swiss Franc: 1-24 current trend neutral
Jap Yen 1-24 current trend down
Canadian Dollar 1-18 current trend upl
Mexican Peso 1-18 current trend neutral
Brazilian Real 12-12 current trend up
Indian Rupe 12-12 current trend up

Commodity index (Broad based) 1-19  current trend up
Metals
Gold: .12-20  current trend neutral
Silver: 12-20 current trend up
Copper 1-17 current trend up
Platinum 1-18 current trend up
Palladium 1-17 current trend up
Agg, Fiber, Wood
Grains 1-24   Current trend up
Cotton 1-17 current trend upl
Livestock 1-24 current trend up
Coffee 9-21 current trend down
Sugar 1-18 Current trend up
Lumber 12-28 current trend neutral
Energy
Oil 12-21 current trend neutral
Heating Oil 1-3 Current trend up
Gasoline 12-21 current trend up
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down
World Stock markets
US Stocks: 12-14 current trend up
Europe 1-18 current trend up
China: 1-17 current trend upl
Brazil 1-17 current trend up
Japan 1-18 current trend up
India 1-17 current trend up
Russia 1-18  current trend upl
1-17 current trend up
Total world markets 1-17 current trend up

Intermediate Term Trends
Dollar:Up
US Bonds: Up
World Bonds: Down
US Stocks Up
Commodities: Down
Oil: Up
Gold: Down
Silver: Down
Emerging Debt: Neutral
Emerging Markets: Down
World Stocks: Down 

Trend changes today:
World Stocks: 
Currencies:,
Commodities:
World Debt
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