Posting Times

Posts will be between 8:30 PM to 10:00 PM PST
Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Eating through resistance

Stocks are eating away at the top of their trading range gaining 21 today at 12418.42. The DJI did out perform most of the broader indexes that mostly finished lower on a stronger dollar. The DJI is starting to move more with the dollar than against it.  The foreign markets and commodities still are moving opposite to the dollar. Put/Call was a more moderate .84 but put premium fell to .77 its lowest level since 11/8/2011. As you can see all trends are up and the markets are only overbought on the Mikey 10. Gold and Silver remain in downtrends as the dollar continues to hold up. Oil on the other hand is trading in lock step with the DJI.

Mikey


Key Indicators
DJI Close 12418.42
DJI Current Trading Range 11700 to 12478 Price as % of range 92
US Stock Indexes  Support 1 12151 Support 2 11700 Support 3 11200
Resistence 1 12400 Resistance 2 12800 Resistence 3 13132
Long term trend Up ...signal 12/1/10 11577
Intermediate trend Up...signal 12-19-11 12102
Current trend Up ...signal 12-14-11  12102
IBD Current trend 12-20 Market in confirmed uptrend 12103

Mikey5 (+34) Neutral, Mikey10 (+142) Overbought
Mikey20 (+37) Neutral, Mikey50 (+39) Neutral
Put/Call day .84 10 day .70,  Put Premium .77 10 day 1.05,  
Bull/Bear Ratio 1.71 Mutial Funds Buy/Redeem ratio 1.02
MACD  Daily (+138.78),Positive cross 12-22, Weekly (+120.41), Positive cross 10-24
VIX 22.22 VXZ 58.06 Mikey Fear 71 (80 Low 20 High) 
 % Stocks above 200 day ave 44% (above 50% uptrend)

Averages
20 day 12113 Rising/Price above
50 day 11963 Rising/ Price above
200 day 11951 Rising/ Price above
20 week 11683  Rising/ Price above
50 Week 11987 Rising/Price above
200 Week 10611 Rising/ Price above

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 12418.42 +21.04 S/P 500 1277.30 +.24
NYSE Comp 7612.15 -12.17 NASDAQ 2648.36 -.36  
S/P Small Cap 418.28 -3.07 Russell 2000 748.28 -5.00
DJT 5082.97 +17.26 DJU 453.02 -2.70
US Debt Markets
US Gov rates: 6 mo .0553%  2 yr .2593% 5 Yr .8782% 10 yr 1.97 30 yr 3.02
Ave Mtg rates : 30 Yr 3.94 % 30 Yr Rifi 4.01% 15 Yr 3.28% 5/1 ARM 2.88
IEF (US 7-10 yr) 104.58 -.31 TLT (20 yr) 118.25 -1.18
MUB (NatlMuni) 108.85 +.49 Cal Muni (NCA)9.48 -.02
BND Total Bond Index 83.32 +.04
Commodities
CRB Commodities Index 313.80 +.43
Gold 1612.70 +12.20
Silver 29.10 -.41 Copper 3.44 +.01 Platinum 1426.30 -6.20
Oil 103.22 +.50 RBOB 2.78 +.03 Nat Gas 3.10 +.11
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.2893 -.0016 Pound 15494 -.0030
Swiss Franc 1.0487 -.0109
Yen  1.2840 -.0006 Aussie 1.0360 -.0016
Dollar Index 80.42 +.50  
World Debt markets
BWX 58.95 -.46 PCY 27.27 +.16 IBND (Intl Corp) 31.49 -.03


All Markets Current Trends 

World debt markets
US Bonds: 12-14  current trend up
US Natl Muni Markets:11-21 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 11-9 current trend down
Intl Corp Bonds 1-3-12 current trend neutral
Emerging Markets Debt: 11-21 current trend up
US High Yield 12-12 current trend up
US Preferred Stocks 11-30 current trend neutral

Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 11-14 current trend up
Aussie Dollar 12-12 current trend neutral
Euro 11-14 current trend down
Brit Pd 11-21 current trend down
Swiss Franc: 10-27 current trend down
Jap Yen 12-30 current trend neutral
Canadian Dollar 12-30  current trend neutral
Mexican Peso 12-12 current trend down 
Brazilian Real 12-12 current trend down
Indian Rupe 11-21 current trend down


Commodity index (Broad based) 1-4 current trend neutral
Metals
Gold: .12-11  current trend down
Silver: 12-11 current trend down
Copper 12-12 current trend neutral
Platinum 11-17 current trend down
Palladium 12-14 current trend neutral
Agg, Fiber, Wood
Grains  Current trend up
Cotton 10-21 current trend neutral
Livestock 12-7 current trend neutral
Coffee 9-21 current trend down
Sugar 1-4 Current trend neutral
Lumber 12-28 current trend neutral
Energy
Oil 12-21 current trend up
Heating Oil 1-3 Current trend up
Gasoline 12-21 current trend up
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 12-14 current trend up
Europe 1-03-12 current trend neutral
China: 1-03 current trend neutral
Brazil 1-03 current trend neutral
Japan 1-03 current trend neutral
India 11-9 current trend down
Russia 12-9  current trend down
Emerging Markets: 1-03 current trend neutral
Total world markets 1-03 current trend neutral

Intermediate Term Trends

Dollar:Up
US Bonds: UpWorld Bonds: Down

US Stocks Up

Commodities: Down

Oil: Up

Gold: Down
Silver: Down

Emerging Debt: Neutral
Emerging Markets: Down
World Stocks: Down 

Trend changes today:

World Stocks: 
Currencies:,
Commodities: Commodities index neutral,Sugar neutral, Lumber Neutral Heating oil up
World Debt :


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