Posting Times

Posts will be between 8:30 PM to 10:00 PM PST
Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Monday, January 9, 2012

Earmings season starts...Long term US bonds fall to neutral trend

News Highlights

Alcoa results mixed
Consumer credit expands at 9.9% rate
Iran turns on neuclear reactor
Long term US bonds turned neutral today 30 rates 3.05.

Mikey

Key Indicators

The Trends
Short term (50 hour) Up (12 days) 12-2 12102
Current trend (50 day) Up (22 days)...signal 12-2-11 12019
Intermediate trend (50 week) Up (3 weeks)...signal 12-19-11 12294
Long term trend (50 month) Up (12 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
IBD Current trend 12-20 Up  (11 days) Market in confirmed uptrend 12103

Overbought/Oversold (+100 overbought/-100 oversold)
Mikey10 (+77) Neutral Mikey20 (+83) Neutral, Mikey50 (+33) Neutral
% Stocks above 200 day ave 45% (above 50% uptrend)

Trader Psychology
Put/Call day .83 10 day .71,  Put Premium .71 10 day .93,  
Bull/Bear Ratio 1.71 Mutial Funds Buy/Redeem ratio 1.02
MACD  Daily (+144.36 ),Positive cross 12-22, Weekly (+140.04), Positive cross 10-24
VIX 21.07 VXZ 56.71 Mikey Fear 76 (80 Low 20 High) 

Averages (uptrend 20>50)
20 hour 12377 Flat/ Price below
50 hour 12346 Rising/Price above
20 day 12164 Rising/Price above
50 day 12000 Rising/ Price above
20 week 11735 Rising/ Price above50 week 11986 Rising/ Price above
20 month 11612 Rising/Price above
50 month 10785 Flat/Price above

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 12392.69 32.77 S/P 500 1280.70 +2.89 NYSE Comp 7584.66 uc
NASDAQ 2676.56 +2.34 S/P Small Cap 421.63 +1.45 Russell 2000 753.51 uc
DJT 5700.01 +30.98 DJU 452.58 +1.38
US Debt Markets
US Gov rates: 6 mo .0503%  2 yr .2483% 5 Yr .8572% 10 yr 1.98 30 yr 3.05
Ave Mtg rates : 30 Yr 3.92 % 30 Yr Rifi 3.98% 15 Yr 3.25% 5/1 ARM 2.86
IEF (US 7-10 yr) 105.02 +.02 TLT (20 yr) 118.21 +.52
MUB (NatlMuni) 110.93 +.37 Cal Muni (NCA)9.49 -.01
BND Total Bond Index 83.41 +.07
Commodities
CRB Commodities Index 311.52 +2.04  
Gold 1608.10 -8.60 Silver 28.78 +.10 Copper 3.42 -.01 Platinum 1499.60 +21.40
Oil 101.31 -.25 RBOB 2.76 +.01 Nat Gas 3.01 -.05
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.2717 +.0046 Pound 1.5342 +.0040 Swiss Franc 1.0400 +.0060
Yen  1.2817 +.0028 Aussie 1.0255 +.0021
Dollar Index 81.38 -.21
World Debt markets
BWX (Intl Treas)58.09 +.20  PCY (Emerg debt)27.07 -.05 IBND (Intl Corp) 31.38 +.34


All Markets Current Trends 

World debt markets
US Bonds: 1-9 current trend neutral
US Natl Muni Markets:: 11-21 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 11-9 current trend down
Intl Corp Bonds 1-3-12 current trend neutral
Emerging Markets Debt: 11-21 current trend up
US High Yield 12-12 current trend up
US Preferred Stocks 11-30 current trend neutral

Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 11-14 current trend up
Aussie Dollar 12-12 current trend neutral
Euro 11-14 current trend down
Brit Pd 11-21 current trend down
Swiss Franc: 10-27 current trend down
Jap Yen 12-30 current trend neutral
Canadian Dollar 12-30  current trend neutral
Mexican Peso 12-12 current trend down 
Brazilian Real 12-12 current trend down
Indian Rupe 11-21 current trend down


Commodity index (Broad based) 1-4 current trend neutral
Metals
Gold: .12-11  current trend down
Silver: 12-11 current trend down
Copper 12-12 current trend neutral
Platinum 11-17 current trend down
Palladium 12-14 current trend neutral
Agg, Fiber, Wood
Grains  Current trend up
Cotton 10-21 current trend neutral
Livestock 12-7 current trend neutral
Coffee 9-21 current trend down
Sugar 1-4 Current trend neutral
Lumber 12-28 current trend neutral
Energy
Oil 12-21 current trend up
Heating Oil 1-3 Current trend up
Gasoline 12-21 current trend up
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 12-14 current trend up
Europe 1-03-12 current trend neutral
China: 1-03 current trend neutral
Brazil 1-03 current trend neutral
Japan 1-03 current trend neutral
India 11-9 current trend down
Russia 12-9  current trend down
Emerging Markets: 1-03 current trend neutral
Total world markets 1-03 current trend neutral

Intermediate Term Trends

Dollar:Up
US Bonds: Up
World Bonds: Down
US Stocks Up
Commodities: Down
Oil: Up
Gold: Down
Silver: Down
Emerging Debt: Neutral
Emerging Markets: Down
World Stocks: Down 

Trend changes today:

World Stocks: 
Currencies:,
Commodities:
World Debt :US Bonds current trend neutral


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