Posting Times

Posts will be between 8:30 PM to 10:00 PM PST
Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Long bonds return to uptrend Economic story turns weak

News Highlights


Exxon drops 2% on weak margins
DJIA has 4th day of small losses
CBO says 2012 economy 2% growth 1 trillion deficit
Amazon falls on earnings miss
Long bonds return to uptrend

Mikey


Key Indicators

Current trading range: 12280 -12750 DJI Close 12800
The Trends
Short term (50 hour) down(2) ...signal 1-30  12585
Current trend (50 day) Up (41 days)...signal 12-2-11 12019
Intermediate trend (50 week) Up (10 weeks)...signal 12-19-11 12294
Long term trend (50 month) Up (16 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
IBD Current trend 12-20 Up  (27 days) Market in confirmed uptrend 12103
Overbought/Oversold (+100 overbought/-100 oversold)
Volume(Millions) NYSE 900 NASDAQ 1.69 B
Advance/Decline NYSE +518 NASDAQ +171 Mikey A/D line 43504
Mikey5 (+54)Neutral Mikey10 (+123)OB Mikey20 (+162) OB, Mikey50(+102) OB
% Stocks above 200 day ave 65% (above 50% uptrend)
Trader Psychology
Put/Call day .62, 10 day .82,  Put Premium .68 10 day .72,  
Bull/Bear Ratio 1.74 Bulls 50.0%, Bears 28.7%
Mutial Funds Buy/Redeem ratio 1.01
MACD  Daily (+155.93),Negative cross 1-30, Weekly (+231.92), Positive cross 10-24
VIX 19.44 VXZ 54.68 Mikey Fear 82 (80 Low 20 High) 
Averages (uptrend 20>50)
20 hour 12626 Rising/ Price below
50 hour 12673 Rising/Price below
20 day 12550 Rising/Price above
50 day 12176 Rising/ Price above
20 week 11950 Rising/ Price above
50 week 12023 Rising/ Price above
20 month 11625 Rising/Price above
50 month 10790 Flat/Price above

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 12632.91 -20.81 S/P 500 1312.41 -.60 NYSE Comp 7838.48 +4.07  NASDAQ  2813.84 +1.90  DJT 5319.14 -2.83 DJU 448.84 +2.28
US Debt Markets
US Gov rates: 6 mo .0805%  2 yr .2186% 5 Yr .7123% 10 yr 1.81 30 yr 2.95
Ave Mtg rates : 30 Yr 3.85% 30 Yr Rifi 3.91% 15 Yr 3.17% 5/1 ARM 2.85
IEF (US 7-10 yr) 106.48 +.40 TLT (20 yr) 120.76 +1.29
MUB (NatlMuni) 112.07 -.68 Cal Muni (NCA)9.65 +.10 BND Total Bond Index 84.05 +.06
Commodities
CRB Commodities Index 312.31 -1.60
Gold 1740.40 +9.40 Silver 33.26 -.26 Copper 3.78 -.05  Platinum 1588.10 -28.20
Oil 98.48 +.70  RBOB 2.89 +.02  Nat Gas 2.50 -.21
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.3030 -.0041 Pound 1.5630 +.0057  Swiss Franc 1.0725 -.0028
Yen  1.2913 +.0020 Aussie 1.0639 +.14  Dollar Index 79.46 +.16
World Debt markets
BWX (Intl Treas) 60.44 +.37 PCY (Emerg debt) 27.33 +.08  IBND (Intl Corp)32.62 -.01

All Markets Current Trends 

World debt markets
US Bonds: 1-30  current trend neutral
US Natl Muni Markets:: 11-21 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 1-26 current trend up
Intl Corp Bonds 1-26 current trend up
Emerging Markets Debt: 1-26 current trend up
US High Yield 12-12 current trend up
US Preferred Stocks 11-30 current trend up
Currencies markets
US Dollar Index 1-26 current trend down
Aussie Dollar 1-10 current trend up
Euro 1-26 current trend up
Brit Pd 1-26 current trend upl
Swiss Franc: 1-27 current trend up
Jap Yen 1-27 current trend up
Canadian Dollar 1-18 current trend upl
Mexican Peso 1-18 current trend upl
Brazilian Real 12-12 current trend up
Indian Rupe 12-12 current trend up

Commodity index
(Broad based) 1-19  current trend up
Metals
Gold: .1-26 current trend up
Silver: 1-21 current trend up
Copper 1-17 current trend up
Platinum 1-18 current trend up
Palladium 1-17 current trend up
Agg, Fiber, Wood
Grains 1-24   Current trend up
Cotton 1-17 current trend upl
Livestock 1-24 current trend up
Coffee 9-21 current trend down
Sugar 1-18 Current trend up
Lumber 12-28 current trend neutral
Energy
Oil 12-21 current trend neutral
Heating Oil 1-3 Current trend up
Gasoline 12-21 current trend up
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 12-14 current trend up
Europe 1-18 current trend up
China: 1-17 current trend upl
Brazil 1-17 current trend up
Japan 1-18 current trend up
India 1-17 current trend up
Russia 1-18  current trend upl
1-17 current trend up
Total world markets 1-17 current trend up

Intermediate Term Trends
Dollar:Up
US Bonds: Up
World Bonds: Down
US Stocks Up
Commodities: Down
Oil: Up
Gold: Down
Silver: Down
Emerging Debt: Neutral
Emerging Markets: Down
World Stocks: Down 

Trend changes today:
World Stocks: 
Currencies:,
Commodities:
World Debt
Posted by at No comments:

Monday, January 30, 2012

News Highlights



Mikey


Key Indicators

Current trading range: 12280 -12750 DJI Close 12800
The Trends
Short term (50 hour) down(1) ...signal 1-30  12585
Current trend (50 day) Up (40 days)...signal 12-2-11 12019
Intermediate trend (50 week) Up (10 weeks)...signal 12-19-11 12294
Long term trend (50 month) Up (16 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
IBD Current trend 12-20 Up  (26 days) Market in confirmed uptrend 12103
Overbought/Oversold (+100 overbought/-100 oversold)
Volume(Millions) NYSE 741 NASDAQ 1.617
Advance/Decline NYSE -769 NASDAQ -830 Mikey A/D line 42986
Mikey5 (+50)Neutral Mikey10 (+136)OB Mikey20 (+152) OB, Mikey50 (+81) Neut
% Stocks above 200 day ave 64% (above 50% uptrend)
Trader Psychology
Put/Call day .94, 10 day .80,  Put Premium .73 10 day .72,  
Bull/Bear Ratio 1.74 Bulls 50.0%, Bears 28.7%
Mutial Funds Buy/Redeem ratio 1.01
MACD  Daily (+165.86),Negative cross 1-30, Weekly (+233.19), Positive cross 10-24
VIX 19.40 VXZ 54.28 Mikey Fear 82 (80 Low 20 High) 
Averages (uptrend 20>50)
20 hour 12670 Rising/ Price below
50 hour 12680 Rising/Price below
20 day 12530 Rising/Price above
50 day 12162 Rising/ Price above
20 week 11951 Rising/ Price above
50 week 12024 Rising/ Price above
20 month 11625 Rising/Price above
50 month 10790 Flat/Price above

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 12653.72 -6.74 S/P 500 1313.01 -3.32 NYSE Comp 7834.41 -42.20 NASDAQ  2811.94 -4.61 DJT 5321.97 -22.81 DJU 446.56 -1.41
US Debt Markets
US Gov rates: 6 mo .0805%  2 yr .2108% 5 Yr .7457% 10 yr 1.86 30 yr 3.01
Ave Mtg rates : 30 Yr 3.87% 30 Yr Rifi 3.93% 15 Yr 3.19% 5/1 ARM 2.86
IEF (US 7-10 yr) 106.10 +.38 TLT (20 yr) 119.42 +1.34
MUB (NatlMuni) 112.75 +.07 Cal Muni (NCA)9.55 +.06
BND Total Bond Index 84.09 +.19

Commodities
CRB Commodities Index 317.81 uc
Gold 1731 -1.20 Silver 33.52 -.27 Copper 3.83 -.06 Platinum 1616.30 -6.90
Oil 97.78 -.78 RBOB 2.87 -.05  Nat Gas 2.71 -.04
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 130.85 -.0078  Pound 1.5573 -.0026 Swiss Franc 1.0753 -.0066
Yen  1.2893 +.0060 Aussie 1.0627 -.0065  Dollar Index 79.30 +.29
World Debt markets
BWX (Intl Treas) 60.22 -.26 PCY (Emerg debt) 27.25 +.08  IBND (Intl Corp)32.64 +.26


All Markets Current Trends 

World debt markets
US Bonds: 1-30  current trend neutral
US Natl Muni Markets:: 11-21 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 1-26 current trend up
Intl Corp Bonds 1-26 current trend up
Emerging Markets Debt: 1-26 current trend up
US High Yield 12-12 current trend up
US Preferred Stocks 11-30 current trend up
Currencies markets
US Dollar Index 1-26 current trend down
Aussie Dollar 1-10 current trend up
Euro 1-26 current trend up
Brit Pd 1-26 current trend upl
Swiss Franc: 1-27 current trend up
Jap Yen 1-27 current trend up
Canadian Dollar 1-18 current trend upl
Mexican Peso 1-18 current trend upl
Brazilian Real 12-12 current trend up
Indian Rupe 12-12 current trend up

Commodity index
(Broad based) 1-19  current trend up
Metals
Gold: .1-26 current trend up
Silver: 1-21 current trend up
Copper 1-17 current trend up
Platinum 1-18 current trend up
Palladium 1-17 current trend up
Agg, Fiber, Wood
Grains 1-24   Current trend up
Cotton 1-17 current trend upl
Livestock 1-24 current trend up
Coffee 9-21 current trend down
Sugar 1-18 Current trend up
Lumber 12-28 current trend neutral
Energy
Oil 12-21 current trend neutral
Heating Oil 1-3 Current trend up
Gasoline 12-21 current trend up
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 12-14 current trend up
Europe 1-18 current trend up
China: 1-17 current trend upl
Brazil 1-17 current trend up
Japan 1-18 current trend up
India 1-17 current trend up
Russia 1-18  current trend upl
1-17 current trend up
Total world markets 1-17 current trend up

Intermediate Term Trends
Dollar:Up
US Bonds: Up
World Bonds: Down
US Stocks Up
Commodities: Down
Oil: Up
Gold: Down
Silver: Down
Emerging Debt: Neutral
Emerging Markets: Down
World Stocks: Down 

Trend changes today:
World Stocks: 
Currencies:,
Commodities:
World Debt
Posted by at No comments:

Friday, January 27, 2012

All currencies up vs dollar..... Central banks profit from Dollar fall

News Highlights


The Central banks are well under way to big profits as the Euro and all other currencies step on the dollar. The weak economic forecast and the pledge to keep rates lower forever speech by the US Fed this week provided the back ground to the rally.  To keep stocks up the story says that they will be ready to aide the economy for a long period of time.

Is it just me or haven't they been doing this for 4 years?  The results have been less than successful for the economy during this period. The game is to QE the market and corporate profits higher as the real economy twists in the wind. How are these corporations making thses profits? Well maybe let's just say the falling dollar is a big help. 

The implication this week is the the Fed is going to support the market. This may or may not be true. To me Madoff ran a better Ponzi scheme than the Fed is running. The problem is that everyone is afraid to say that the emperor has no clothes and I might add rightfully so. It is still a Ponzi scheme none the less.

The real economy is being held up by a growing and unsustainalbe deficit that can not go on forever. Of course, this week the commodities markets turned up along with the non US currencies. How this can be a good thing is way beyond me. The price trend is all that matters not the puny stories that are fed (pun) to the public. The trend is still up, for now, on commodities and stocks.

Mikey


Key Indicators

Current trading range: 12280 -12750 DJI Close 12800
The Trends
Short term (50 hour) up(26 days) ...signal 12-2 12102
Current trend (50 day) Up (39 days)...signal 12-2-11 12019
Intermediate trend (50 week) Up (9 weeks)...signal 12-19-11 12294
Long term trend (50 month) Up (16 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
IBD Current trend 12-20 Up  (25 days) Market in confirmed uptrend 12103
Overbought/Oversold (+100 overbought/-100 oversold)
Advance/Decline NYSE +877  NASDAQ +731 Mikey A/D line 43735
Mikey5 (+81)Neutral Mikey10 (+124)OB Mikey20 (+188) OB, Mikey50 (+97) Neut
% Stocks above 200 day ave 65% (above 50% uptrend)
Trader Psychology
Put/Call day .82, 10 day .80,  Put Premium .73 10 day .72,  
Bull/Bear Ratio 1.74 Bulls 50.0%, Bears 28.7%
Mutial Funds Buy/Redeem ratio 1.01
MACD  Daily (+174.47),Positive cross 12-22, Weekly (+214.28  ), Positive cross 10-24
VIX 18.57 VXZ 54.49 Mikey Fear 86 (80 Low 20 High) 
Averages (uptrend 20>50)
20 hour 12709 Rising/ Price below
50 hour 12679 Rising/Price below
20 day 12511 Rising/Price above
50 day 12156 Rising/ Price above
20 week 11894 Rising/ Price above
50 week 12018 Rising/ Price above
20 month 11626 Rising/Price above
50 month 10790 Flat/Price above

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 12660.46 -74.17  S/P 500 1316.33 -2.10 NYSE Comp 7876.61 -7.29
NASDAQ  2816.55 +11.27 DJT 5344.78 +41.93 DJU 447.97 -6.07

US Debt Markets
US Gov rates: 6 mo .0763%  2 yr .2147% 5 Yr .7840% 10 yr 1.95 30 yr 3.11
Ave Mtg rates : 30 Yr 3.92% 30 Yr Rifi 3.99% 15 Yr 3.24% 5/1 ARM 2.89
IEF (US 7-10 yr) 105.72 +.32 TLT (20 yr) 118.05 +.34
MUB (NatlMuni) 112.73 -.14 Cal Muni (NCA)9.49 uc
BND Total Bond Index 83.90 +.15

Commodities
CRB Commodities Index 317.81 +.39
Gold 1732.20 +5.50 Silver 33.79 +.05
Copper 3.89 uc Platinum 1623.00 +6.20
Oil 99.56 -.14 RBOB 2.92 +.09 Nat Gas 2.75 +.11

US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.3199 +.0151 Pound 1.5600 +.0042 Swiss Franc 1.0819 +.0091
Yen  1.2833 +.0128 Aussie 1.0693 +.0045 Dollar Index 79.01 -.50

World Debt markets
BWX (Intl Treas) 60.47 +.67 PCY (Emerg debt) 27.17 -.09 IBND (Intl Corp)32.38 -.14



All Markets Current Trends 

World debt markets
US Bonds: 1-26  current trend down
US Natl Muni Markets:: 11-21 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 1-26 current trend up
Intl Corp Bonds 1-26 current trend up
Emerging Markets Debt: 1-26 current trend up
US High Yield 12-12 current trend up
US Preferred Stocks 11-30 current trend up
Currencies markets
US Dollar Index 1-26 current trend down
Aussie Dollar 1-10 current trend up
Euro 1-26 current trend up
Brit Pd 1-26 current trend upl
Swiss Franc: 1-27 current trend up
Jap Yen 1-27 current trend up
Canadian Dollar 1-18 current trend upl
Mexican Peso 1-18 current trend upl
Brazilian Real 12-12 current trend up
Indian Rupe 12-12 current trend up

Commodity index (Broad based) 1-19  current trend up
Metals
Gold: .1-26 current trend up
Silver: 1-21 current trend up
Copper 1-17 current trend up
Platinum 1-18 current trend up
Palladium 1-17 current trend up
Agg, Fiber, Wood
Grains 1-24   Current trend up
Cotton 1-17 current trend upl
Livestock 1-24 current trend up
Coffee 9-21 current trend down
Sugar 1-18 Current trend up
Lumber 12-28 current trend neutral
Energy
Oil 12-21 current trend neutral
Heating Oil 1-3 Current trend up
Gasoline 12-21 current trend up
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down
World Stock markets
US Stocks: 12-14 current trend up
Europe 1-18 current trend up
China: 1-17 current trend upl
Brazil 1-17 current trend up
Japan 1-18 current trend up
India 1-17 current trend up
Russia 1-18  current trend upl
1-17 current trend up
Total world markets 1-17 current trend up

Intermediate Term Trends
Dollar:Up
US Bonds: Up
World Bonds: Down
US Stocks Up
Commodities: Down
Oil: Up
Gold: Down
Silver: Down
Emerging Debt: Neutral
Emerging Markets: Down
World Stocks: Down 

Trend changes today:
World Stocks: 
Currencies:,
Commodities:
World Debt
Posted by at No comments:

Thursday, January 26, 2012

News Highlights


Gold returns to uptrend
US bonds trend down
US Dollar current trend down
Intl bonds current trend up
Intl treasuries current trend up
Emerging debt current trend up
   
I guess you can see the game of currencies and world bonds as Central banks sell dollars and US bonds for Euros and international debt. Lat week the international stock market turned up. US stocks are still near their highs and mrkets show little fear of a selloff.

Mikey


Key Indicators

Current trading range: 12280 -12750 DJI Close 12800
The Trends
Short term (50 hour) Up (25 days) ...signal 12-2 12102
Current trend (50 day) Up (38 days)...signal 12-2-11 12019
Intermediate trend (50 week) Up (9 weeks)...signal 12-19-11 12294
Long term trend (50 month) Up (16 months)...signal 12/1/10 11577
IBD Current trend 12-20 Up  (24 days) Market in confirmed uptrend 12103
Overbought/Oversold (+100 overbought/-100 oversold)
Mikey5 (+71)Neutral Mikey10 (+120)OB Mikey20 (+150) OB, Mikey50 (+72) Neut
% Stocks above 200 day ave 64% (above 50% uptrend)
Trader Psychology
Put/Call day .92, 10 day .80,  Put Premium .73 10 day .72,  
Bull/Bear Ratio 1.74 Bulls 50.0%, Bears 28.7%
Mutial Funds Buy/Redeem ratio 1.01
MACD  Daily (+181.92 ),Positive cross 12-22, Weekly (+220.13), Positive cross 10-24
VIX 18.57 VXZ 54.49 Mikey Fear 86 (80 Low 20 High) 
Averages (uptrend 20>50)
20 hour 12706 Rising/ Price above
50 hour 12660 Rising/Price above
20 day 12486 Rising/Price above
50 day 12139 Rising/ Price above
20 week 11898 Rising/ Price above
50 week 12020 Rising/ Price above
20 month 11630 Rising/Price above
50 month 10792 Flat/Price above

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 12734.63 -24.22  S/P 500 1318.43 -7.63 NYSE Comp 7883.90 -30.91
NASDAQ  2805.28 -13.03 DJT 5302.85 +20.85 DJU 454.04 +.55

US Debt Markets
US Gov rates: 6 mo .0763%  2 yr .2147% 5 Yr .7840% 10 yr 1.95 30 yr 3.11
Ave Mtg rates : 30 Yr 3.92% 30 Yr Rifi 3.99% 15 Yr 3.24% 5/1 ARM 2.89
IEF (US 7-10 yr) 105.40 +.56 TLT (20 yr) 117.60 +1.13
MUB (NatlMuni) 112.55 +.74 Cal Muni (NCA)9.49 +.02
BND Total Bond Index 83.75 +.22

Commodities
CRB Commodities Index 317.42 +1.05
Gold 1726.70 +26.60 Silver 33.74 +.62 Copper 3.89 +.07 Platinum 1616.80 +37.10   
Oil 99.75 +.35 RBOB2.83 -.01 Nat Gas 2.64 -.09

US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.3053 -.0007 Pound 1.5538 +.0043 Swiss Franc 1.0728 +.0008
Yen  1.2705 +.0041 Aussie 1.0648 +.0016 Dollar Index 79.57 -.14
World Debt markets
BWX (Intl Treas 59.80 +.23 PCY (Emerg debt) 27.26 +.17 IBND (Intl Corp)32.52 +.14




All Markets Current Trends 

World debt markets
US Bonds: 1-26  current trend down
US Natl Muni Markets:: 11-21 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 1-26 current trend up
Intl Corp Bonds 1-26 current trend up
Emerging Markets Debt: 1-26 current trend up
US High Yield 12-12 current trend up
US Preferred Stocks 11-30 current trend up
Currencies markets
US Dollar Index 1-26 current trend down
Aussie Dollar 1-10 current trend up
Euro 1-26 current trend neutral
Brit Pd 1-26 current trend upl
Swiss Franc: 1-24 current trend neutral
Jap Yen 1-24 current trend down
Canadian Dollar 1-18 current trend upl
Mexican Peso 1-18 current trend neutral
Brazilian Real 12-12 current trend up
Indian Rupe 12-12 current trend up

Commodity index (Broad based) 1-19  current trend up
Metals
Gold: .1-26 current trend up
Silver: 1-21 current trend up
Copper 1-17 current trend up
Platinum 1-18 current trend up
Palladium 1-17 current trend up
Agg, Fiber, Wood
Grains 1-24   Current trend up
Cotton 1-17 current trend upl
Livestock 1-24 current trend up
Coffee 9-21 current trend down
Sugar 1-18 Current trend up
Lumber 12-28 current trend neutral
Energy
Oil 12-21 current trend neutral
Heating Oil 1-3 Current trend up
Gasoline 12-21 current trend up
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down
World Stock markets
US Stocks: 12-14 current trend up
Europe 1-18 current trend up
China: 1-17 current trend upl
Brazil 1-17 current trend up
Japan 1-18 current trend up
India 1-17 current trend up
Russia 1-18  current trend upl
1-17 current trend up
Total world markets 1-17 current trend up

Intermediate Term Trends
Dollar:Up
US Bonds: Up
World Bonds: Down
US Stocks Up
Commodities: Down
Oil: Up
Gold: Down
Silver: Down
Emerging Debt: Neutral
Emerging Markets: Down
World Stocks: Down 

Trend changes today:
World Stocks: 
Currencies:,
Commodities:
World Debt
Posted by at No comments:
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