Posting Times

Posts will be between 8:30 PM to 10:00 PM PST
Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Friday, December 30, 2011

2011 ends with weaker wold economy and many problems unresolved

Mikey


Key Indicators
DJI Close 12217
US Stock Indexes DJI Current Trading Range 11700 to 12287 Price as % of range 100
Support 1 11700 Support 2 11200 Support 3 10600
Resistence 1 12200 Resistance 2 12400 Resistence 3 12800
Long term trend Up ...signal 12/1/10 11577
Intermediate trend Up...signal 12-19 12102
Current trend Up ...signal 12-14-11  12102
IBD Current trend 12-20 Market in confirmed uptrend 12103

Mikey5 (+26) Neutral, Mikey10 (+91) Neutral
Mikey20 (+47) Neutral, Mikey50 (+52) Neutral
Put/Call day .76 10 day .73,  Put Premium 1.08 10 day 1.17,  
Bull/Bear Ratio 1.71 Mutial Funds Buy/Redeem ratio 1.02
MACD  Daily (+114.44),Positive cross 12-22, Weekly (+86.18), Positive cross 10-24
VIX 23.40 VXZ 60.65 Mikey Fear 66 (80 Low 20 High) 
 % Stocks above 200 day ave 40% (above 50% uptrend)

Averages
20 day 12018 Rising/Price above
50 day 11934 Rising/ Price above
200 day 11946 Rising/ Price above
20 week 11602 Rising/ Price above
50 Week 11976 Rising/Price above
200 Week 10608 Flat/ Price above

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 12217.56 -69.48 S/P 500 1257.60 -5.42
NYSE Comp 7477.03 -8.60 NASDAQ 2605.15 -8.59
S/P Small Cap 415.07 -3.92   Russell 2000 740.92 -4.06
DJT 5019.69 -22.69 DJU 464.68 -2.44
US Debt Markets
US Gov rates: 6 mo .0610%  2 yr .2390% 5 Yr .8317% 10 yr 1.87 30 yr 2.89
Ave Mtg rates : 30 Yr 3.95% 30 Yr Rifi 4.02% 15 Yr 3.28 % 5/1 ARM 2.89
IEF (US 7-10 yr) 105.57 +.37 TLT (20 yr) 121.06 +.20
MUB (NatlMuni) 108.25 -.99 Cal Muni (NCA) 9.51 -.05
BND Total Bond Index 83.54 +.06
Commodities
CRB Commodities Index 305.30 +.75 Gold 1566.80 +25.90 SILVER 27.91 +.59 Copper 3.43 +.06 Platinum 1404.90 +38.10
Oil 98.83 -.82 RBOB 2.65 -.03 Nat Gas 2.99 -.04
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.2891 -.0024  Pound 1.5414 +.0119  Swiss Franc 1.0513 +.0004
Yen  1.2801 +.0114 Aussie 1.0262 +.0090
Dollar Index 80.52 -.39
World Debt markets
BWX(Intl Treas) 58.81 +.15 PCY(EmerMkt) 27.36 +.01 IBND (Intl Corp) 31.52 -.09

All Markets Current Trends 

World debt markets
US Bonds: 12-14  current trend up
US Natl Muni Markets:: 11-21 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 11-9 current trend down
Intl Corp Bonds 11-9 current trend down
Emerging Markets Debt: 11-21 current trend up
US High Yield 12-12 current trend up
US Preferred Stocks 11-30 current trend neutral

Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 11-14 current trend up
Aussie Dollar 12-12 current trend neutral
Euro 11-14 current trend down
Brit Pd 11-21 current trend down
Swiss Franc: 10-27 current trend down
Jap Yen 12-30 current trend neutral
Canadian Dollar 12-30  current trendneutral
Mexican Peso 12-12 current trend down 
Brazilian Real 12-12 current trend down
Indian Rupe 11-21 current trend down
Commodity index (Broad based) 11-21 current trend down
Metals
Gold: .12-11  current trend down
Silver: 12-11 current trend down
Copper 12-12 current trend neutral
Platinum 11-17 current trend down
Palladium 12-14 current trend neutral
Agg, Fiber, Wood
Grains  Current trend up
Cotton 10-21 current trend down
Livestock 12-7 current trend neutral
Coffee 9-21 current trend down
Lumber 12-14 current trend down
Energy
Oil 12-21 current trend up
Heating Oil 12-9 Current trend down
Gasoline 12-21 current trend up
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 12-14 current trend up
Europe 12-12 current trend down
China: 12-11 current trend down
Brazil 12-11 current trend down
Japan 12-12  current trend downl
India 11-9 current trend down
Russia 12-9  current trend down
Emerging Markets: 12-11 current trend down
Total world markets 12-11 current trend down

Intermediate Term Trends

Dollar:Up
Oil: Up
US Stocks Up
Gold: Down
US Bonds: Up
Silver: Down
Commodities: Down
World Bonds: Down
Emerging Debt: Neutral
Emerging Markets: Down
World Stocks: Down 

Trend changes today:

World Stocks: 
Currencies:,
Commodities:
World Debt :


Posted by at No comments:

Thursday, December 29, 2011

DJI closes near top of trading range

Stocks closed near the top of the trading range today.  The Bull/Bear ratio was reported at 1.71 today and the Mikey fear closed at 69. Put/Calls posted a .82 with the 10 day at .70.  The volume was a restricted 527 million on the NYSE and 1.048 billion on the NADAQ. The NYSE has 40% of all stocks trading above the 200 day average.  This all indicates that the bears are out of the game and the bulls are on vacation. I suspect that in the new year we will all be given the good news about the economy.  Oil was little changed and Gold and silver made a stand at their lows today.

Mikey


Key Indicators
DJI Close 12287
US Stock Indexes DJI Current Trading Range 11700 to 12287 Price as % of range 100
Support 1 11700 Support 2 11200 Support 3 10600
Resistence 1 12200 Resistance 2 12400 Resistence 3 12800
Long term trend Up ...signal 12/1/10 11577
Intermediate trend Up...signal 12-19 12102
Current trend Up ...signal 12-14-11  12102
IBD Current trend 12-20 Market in confirmed uptrend 12103

OB/OS: (100 OB, -100 OS)  Mikey5 (+68) Neutral, Mikey10 (+109) Overbought,
Mikey20 (+41) Neutral, Mikey50 (+40) Neutral
Put/Call day .95 10 day .73,  Put Premium 1.09 10 day 1.22,  
Bull/Bear Ratio 1.71 Mutial Funds Buy/Redeem ratio 1.02
MACD  Daily (+114.69 ),Positive cross 12-22, Weekly (+91.74 ), Positive cross 10-24
VIX 22.65 VXZ 60.01 Mikey Fear 69 (80 Low 20 High) 
 % Stocks above 200 day ave 40% (above 50% uptrend)

Averages
20 day 12068 Rising/Price above
50 day 11920 Rising/ Price above
200 day 11944 Rising/ Price above
20 week 11606 Rising/ Price above
50 Week 11978 Rising/Price above
200 Week 10608 Flat/ Price above

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 12287.04 +135.63  S/P 500 1263.02 +13.38
NYSE Comp 7485.63 +88.64 NASDAQ 2613.74 +23.76  
S/P Small Cap 418.99 +5.70  Russell 2000 744.98 +9.77
DJT 5042.29 +68.28 DJU 467.12 +3.84
US Debt Markets
US Gov rates: 6 mo .0585%  2 yr .2706% 5 Yr .8958% 10 yr 1.91 30 yr 2.90
Ave Mtg rates : 30 Yr 3.98% 30 Yr Rifi 4.06% 15 Yr 3.29% 5/1 ARM 2.87
IEF (US 7-10 yr) 105.15 +.08 TLT (20 yr) 121.00 +.36
MUB (NatlMuni) 109.24 +.85 Cal Muni (NCA) 9.56 +.01
BND Total Bond Index 83.43 +.02
Commodities
CRB Commodities Index 304.55 -.94
Gold 1540.90 -23.10 SILVER 27.32 +.09 Copper 3.37 +.01 Platinum 1366.80 -20.90
Oil 99.65 +.29 RBOB 2.68 +.03 Nat Gas 3.03 -.09
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.2912 +.0025 Pound 1.5295 -.0021 Swiss Franc 1.0509 +.0038
Yen  1.2682 +.0041 Aussie 1.0172 +.0055
Dollar Index 80.85 -.03
World Debt markets
BWX(Intl Treas) 58.66 +.11 PCY(EmerMkt) 27.35 +.03 IBND (Intl Corp) 31.67 +.27

All Markets Current Trends 

World debt markets
US Bonds: 12-14  current trend up
US Natl Muni Markets:: 11-21 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 11-9 current trend down
Intl Corp Bonds 11-9 current trend down
Emerging Markets Debt: 11-21 current trend up
US High Yield 12-12 current trend up
US Preferred Stocks 11-30 current trend neutral

Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 11-14 current trend up
Aussie Dollar 12-12 current trend neutral
Euro 11-14 current trend down
Brit Pd 11-21 current trend down
Swiss Franc: 10-27 current trend down
Jap Yen 10-31 current trend down
Canadian Dollar 12-7 current trend down
Mexican Peso 12-12 current trend down 
Brazilian Real 12-12 current trend down
Indian Rupe 11-21 current trend down
Commodity index (Broad based) 11-21 current trend down
Metals
Gold: .12-11  current trend down
Silver: 12-11 current trend down
Copper 12-12 current trend neutral
Platinum 11-17 current trend down
Palladium 12-14 current trend neutral
Agg, Fiber, Wood
Grains  Current trend up
Cotton 10-21 current trend down
Livestock 12-7 current trend neutral
Coffee 9-21 current trend down
Lumber 12-14 current trend down
Energy
Oil 12-21 current trend up
Heating Oil 12-9 Current trend down
Gasoline 12-21 current trend up
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 12-14 current trend up
Europe 12-12 current trend down
China: 12-11 current trend down
Brazil 12-11 current trend down
Japan 12-12  current trend downl
India 11-9 current trend down
Russia 12-9  current trend down
Emerging Markets: 12-11 current trend down
Total world markets 12-11 current trend down

Intermediate Term Trends

Dollar:Up
Oil: Up
US Stocks Up
Gold: Down
US Bonds: Up
Silver: Down
Commodities: Down
World Bonds: Down
Emerging Debt: Neutral
Emerging Markets: Down
World Stocks: Down 

Trend changes today:

World Stocks: 
Currencies:,
Commodities:
World Debt :


Posted by at No comments:

Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Gold at 5 month low Silver at 1 year low

The dollar resumed its uptrend today and Gold and Silver made new lows. Stocks pulled back into its 11700 to 12200 trading range with the move up in the dollar, closing down 139 points. All trends are still up and most indicators are rated neutral. Put/call is at a very low .73 on the 10 day and the Mikey Fear is a tame 66. 

The lame duck in the pond is oil which is sitting near its high at 99.36. The full court press is on the shorts now, complete with Iran and its problems with the West. The same thing happened in 2008 before it dropped to 30 bucks. 


Mikey


Key Indicators
DJI Close 12151
US Stock Indexes DJI Current Trading Range 11700 to 12200 Price as % of range 90
Support 1 11700 Support 2 11200 Support 3 10600
Resistence 1 12200 Resistance 2 12400 Resistence 3 12800
Long term trend Up ...signal 12/1/10 11577
Intermediate trend Up...signal 12-19 12102
Current trend Up ...signal 12-14-11  12102
IBD Current trend 12-20 Market in confirmed uptrend 12103

OB/OS: (100 OB, -100 OS)  Mikey5 (+41) Neutral, Mikey10 (+47) Neutral,
Mikey20 (+49) Neutral, Mikey50 (+43) Neutral
Put/Call day .95 10 day .73,  Put Premium 1.09 10 day 1.22,  
Bull/Bear Ratio 1.59 Mutial Funds Buy/Redeem ratio 1.02
MACD  Daily (+105.77),Positive cross 12-22, Weekly (+81.24), Positive cross 10-24
VIX 23.52 VXZ 60.73 Mikey Fear 66 (80 Low 20 High) 
 % Stocks above 200 day ave 38% (above 50% uptrend)

Averages
20 day 12056 Rising/Price above
50 day 11905 Rising/ Price above
200 day 11940 Flat/ Price above
20 week 11599 Falling/ Price above
50 Week 11975 Rising/Price above
200 Week 10608 Flat/ Price above

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 12151.49 -139.94  S/P 500 1249.64 -15.79
NYSE Comp 7396.99 -111.38 NASDAQ 2589.98 -35.22
S/P Small Cap 413.29 -8.98 Russell 2000 735.21 -16.10  
DJT 4974.01 -80.42 DJU 463.28 -3.30
US Debt Markets
US Gov rates: 6 mo .0534%  2 yr .2745% 5 Yr .9151% 10 yr 1.93 30 yr 2.92
Ave Mtg rates : 30 Yr 3.98% 30 Yr Rifi 4.06% 15 Yr 3.29% 5/1 ARM 2.87
IEF (US 7-10 yr) 105.07 +.63 TLT (20 yr) 120.64 +2.19  
MUB (NatlMuni) 108.39 -.01 Cal Muni (NCA) 9.55 +.05
BND Total Bond Index 83.41+.32
Commodities
CRB Commodities Index 305.49 -2.78   
Gold 1564.10 -31.40 SILVER 27.23 -1.51 Copper 3.36 -.05 Platinum 1387.70 -46.20 
 Oil 99.36 -.98 RBOB 2.65 -.03  Nat Gas 3.12 +.01
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.2850 -.0167 Pound 1.5327 -.0219 Swiss Franc 1.0472 -.0099
Yen  1.2638 -.0010 Aussie 1.0116 -.0068
Dollar Index 80.88+.72
World Debt markets
BWX(Intl Treas) 58.55 -.50 PCY(EmerMkt) 27.32 +.03 IBND (Intl Corp) 31.34 -.42


All Markets Current Trends 

World debt markets
US Bonds: 12-14  current trend up
US Natl Muni Markets:: 11-21 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 11-9 current trend down
Intl Corp Bonds 11-9 current trend down
Emerging Markets Debt: 11-21 current trend up
US High Yield 12-12 current trend up
US Preferred Stocks 11-30 current trend neutral

Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 11-14 current trend up
Aussie Dollar 12-12 current trend neutral
Euro 11-14 current trend down
Brit Pd 11-21 current trend down
Swiss Franc: 10-27 current trend down
Jap Yen 10-31 current trend down
Canadian Dollar 12-7 current trend down
Mexican Peso 12-12 current trend down 
Brazilian Real 12-12 current trend down
Indian Rupe 11-21 current trend down
Commodity index (Broad based) 11-21 current trend down
Metals
Gold: .12-11  current trend down
Silver: 12-11 current trend down
Copper 12-12 current trend neutral
Platinum 11-17 current trend down
Palladium 12-14 current trend neutral
Agg, Fiber, Wood
Wheat current trend down
Corn current trend down
Soybeans current trend down
Sugar 10-31 current trend down
Cotton 10-21 current trend down
Livestock 12-7 current trend neutral
Coffee 9-21 current trend down
Lumber 12-14 current trend down
Energy
Oil 12-21 current trend up
Heating Oil 12-9 Current trend down
Gasoline 12-21 current trend up
Ethenol 9-23 current trend  down
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 12-14 current trend up
Europe 12-12 current trend down
China: 12-11 current trend down
Brazil 12-11 current trend down
Japan 12-12  current trend downl
India 11-9 current trend down
Russia 12-9  current trend down
Emerging Markets: 12-11 current trend down
Total world markets 12-11 current trend down

Intermediate Term Trends

Dollar:Up
Oil: Up
US Stocks Up
Gold: Down
US Bonds: Up
Silver: Down
Commodities: Down
World Bonds: Down
Emerging Debt: Neutral
Emerging Markets: Down
World Stocks: Down 

Trend changes today:

World Stocks:  China neutral Brazil Neutral
Currencies:, Canadian neutral
Commodities:Palladium up
World Debt :


Posted by at No comments:

Friday, December 23, 2011

DJI takes out highs

DJI traded through the top end of a trading range today on low volume. Indicators are not yet overbought and all trends are pointed up.
Mikey


Key Indicators
DJI Close 12294
US Stock Indexes DJI Current Trading Range 11700 to 12400 Price as % of range 84
Support 1 11700 Support 2 11200 Support 3 10600
Resistence 1 12200 Resistance 2 12400 Resistence 3 12800
Long term trend Up ...signal 12/1/10 11577
Intermediate trend Up...signal 12-19 12102
Current trend Up ...signal 12-14-11  12102
IBD Current trend 12-20 Market in confirmed uptrend 12103

OB/OS: (100 OB, -100 OS)  Mikey5 (+99) Neutral, Mikey10 (+20) Neutral,
Mikey20 (+102) Overbought, Mikey50 (+62) Neutral
Put/Call day .55 10 day .75,  Put Premium 1.09 10 day 1.20,  
Bull/Bear Ratio 1.59 Mutial Funds Buy/Redeem ratio 1.02
MACD  Daily (+93.23),Positive cross 12-22, Weekly (+62.65), Positive cross 10-24
VIX 20.73 VXZ 60.44 Mikey Fear 77 (80 Low 20 High) 
 % Stocks above 200 day ave 41% (above 50% uptrend)

Averages
20 day 11988 Rising/Price above
50 day 11877 Rising/ Price above
200 day 11938 Flat/ Price above
20 week 11555 Falling/ Price above
50 Week 11968 Rising/Price above
200 Week 10608 Flat/ Price above

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 12294 +124.35 S/P 500 1265.33 +11.33 
NYSE Comp 7518.66 +57.91 NASDAQ 2618.64 +19.19
S/P Small Cap 419.66 +1.36 Russell 2000 747.98 +2.47
DJT 5053.29 +22.98  DJU 462.94 +3.28
US Debt Markets
US Gov rates: 6 mo .0381%  2 yr .2863% 5 Yr .9778% 10 yr 2.02 30 yr 3.05
Ave Mtg rates : 30 Yr 3.94% 30 Yr Rifi 4.01% 15 Yr 3.28% 5/1 ARM 2.84
IEF (US 7-10 yr) 104.54 -.43 TLT (20 yr) 118.17 -1.43
MUB (NatlMuni) 108.25 -.13 Cal Muni (NCA) 9.45 +.05
BND Total Bond Index 83.04 -.35
Commodities
CRB Commodities Index 306.08 +.41  
Gold 1606.00 -4.60 SILVER 29.08 +.03 Copper 3.46 +.05 Platinum 1429.50 +5.10 Oil 99.68 +.15  RBOB 2.68 +.04  Ethenol 2.17 +.03 Nat Gas 3.11 -.05
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.3003 +.0004 Pound 1.5460 -.0096 Swiss Franc 1.0549 -.0004
Yen  1.2614 +.0017  Aussie 1.0178 +.0019
Dollar Index 79.93 -.03
World Debt markets
BWX(Intl Treas) 58.88 -.03  PCY(EmerMkt) 27,25 UC  IBND (Intl Corp) 31.81 -.05


All Markets Current Trends 

World debt markets
US Bonds: 12-14  current trend up
US Natl Muni Markets:: 11-21 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 11-9 current trend down
Intl Corp Bonds 11-9 current trend down
Emerging Markets Debt: 11-21 current trend up
US High Yield 12-12 current trend up
US Preferred Stocks 11-30 current trend neutral

Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 11-14 current trend up
Aussie Dollar 12-12 current trend neutral
Euro 11-14 current trend down
Brit Pd 11-21 current trend down
Swiss Franc: 10-27 current trend down
Jap Yen 10-31 current trend down
Canadian Dollar 12-7 current trend down
Mexican Peso 12-12 current trend down 
Brazilian Real 12-12 current trend down
Indian Rupe 11-21 current trend down
Commodity index (Broad based) 11-21 current trend down
Metals
Gold: .12-11  current trend down
Silver: 12-11 current trend down
Copper 12-12 current trend neutral
Platinum 11-17 current trend down
Palladium 12-14 current trend neutral
Agg, Fiber, Wood
Wheat current trend down
Corn current trend down
Soybeans current trend down
Sugar 10-31 current trend down
Cotton 10-21 current trend down
Livestock 12-7 current trend neutral
Coffee 9-21 current trend down
Lumber 12-14 current trend down
Energy
Oil 12-21 current trend up
Heating Oil 12-9 Current trend down
Gasoline 12-21 current trend up
Ethenol 9-23 current trend  down
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 12-14 current trend up
Europe 12-12 current trend down
China: 12-11 current trend down
Brazil 12-11 current trend down
Japan 12-12  current trend downl
India 11-9 current trend down
Russia 12-9  current trend down
Emerging Markets: 12-11 current trend down
Total world markets 12-11 current trend down

Intermediate Term Trends

Dollar:Up
Oil: Up
US Stocks Up
Gold: Neutral
US Bonds: Up
Silver: Down
Commodities: Down
World Bonds: Down
Emerging Debt: Neutral
Emerging Markets: Down
World Stocks: Down 

Trend changes today:

World Stocks:  China neutral Brazil Neutral
Currencies:, Canadian neutral
Commodities:Palladium up
World Debt :


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