Are the Bond Vigilantes coming back?

Bonds are weakening as commodities and the market challenge their downtrends. If the Fed is doing nothing then the bond vigilantes are going to come back. They raise rates as commodities and assets rise. The dollar is the beneficiary. This is the exact opposite of easing which is what the Fed has been doing. The economic news is turning more positive now. This would support the vigilantes.

The traders believe that the Fed will support this mess and do what it did in QE1 and QE2. It would be just like them to pull the plug now. Keep watching the bonds and the dollar for the clue.
Mikey

 Closing Prices

US Stock Indexes
DJIA 66613.53 +53.58 S/P 500 1218.89 +5.97
NYSE Comp 7528.39 +64.39 NASDAQ 2579.46 +3.35  
S/P Midcap1218.89 +5.97 Russell 726.81 -1.27  
DJT 4666.96 -17.00 DJU 435.06 +2.44
US bonds and interest rates
US Gov rates: 6 mo .0453%  2 yr .1957% 10 yr 2.22  30 yr 3.60
IEF (US10 yr) 103.00 -.37 TLT (USLT) 107.03 -1.68
MUB (NatlMuni) 106.99 +.77 CalMuni (NCA)8.85 -.01
HYG (High Yield)`88.03 +1.12  PFF(Preferred) 37.77 -.08
BND (Total Bond Mkt) 83.40 -.11
Commodities
Commodities Indexes (DBC)30.16 +.05 (USCI )66.15 +.39
Gold 1831.70 +1.90 Silver 41.69 +.30 Copper 4.18 +.06
Platinum 1856.20 +3.10  .Nickel (JJN) 32.16 +.21 
Oil 88.81 -.09 RBOB 2.86 -.13  Nat Gas 4.05 +.14
Grains (JJG)55.55 -.11 Livestock (COW) 28.74 -.16
Cotton (BAL)65.38 -.02 Agg complex(JJA)65.64 +.01
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.4312 -.0087 Pound 1.6117 -.0070 Swiss Franc 1.2269 +.0201
Yen 1.2877 +.0016 Aussie 1.0726 -.0019
Dollar Index 74.00 +.01
World Debt markets
BWX(Intl Treas) 63.13 -.43   PCY(EmerMkt) 27.82 +.07
IBND(Intl Corp) 83.40 -.11

All Markets Current Trends

World debt markets

US Bonds: 7-29 current trend up

US Natl Muni Markets:: 8-3 current trend up

Intl Treas Bonds 8-12 current trend up
Intl Corp Bonds 8-17 current trend up
Emerging Markets Debt: ..8-10 current trend up
US High Yield 8-2 current trend down

US Preferred Stocks 7-6 current trend down

Commodities

Commodity index (Broad based) 8-30 current trend up
Gold: .7-6  current trend up

Silver: 8-30  current trend up
Copper 8-5 current trend down
Platinum 8-15 current trend up

Palladium 8-23 current trend neutral
Nickel 8-8 current trend down

Grain complex 8-22 current trend up
Sugar 8-17  current trend up
Cotton `8-30  current trend neutral

Livestock 8-22 current trend neutral

Coffee 8-22 current trend up
Lumber 8-29 current trend neutral
Agg complex 8-22 current trend up

Oil 8-1 current trend down

Gasoline 8-30 current trend up
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down

World Stock markets

US Stocks: 7-27 current trend down
Europe 7-1 current trend down

China: 6-3 current trend down

Brazil 7-1 current trend down

Japan 8-4 current trend down

India 8-2 current trend down

Russia 8-4 current trend down\
Emerging Markets: 8-2 current trend downl

Total world markets 8-2 current trend down  

Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 8-9 current trend down 
Aussie Dollar 8-29 current trend neutral
Euro 8-16 current trend up
Brit Pd  8-15 current trend up
Swiss Franc: 8-30 current trend neutral
Jap Yen 7-11 current trend up

Canadian Dollar 8-4 current trend down
Mexican Peso 8-4 current trend down
Brazilian Real 8-29 current trend neutral
Indian Rupe 8-8 current trend down

Trend changes:

World Stocks:
Currencies: 
World Debt :

US Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term down  7-28 12240

Mikey Intermediate Trend: down  8-4-11 11779
Mikey Long term Neutral 8-4-11 11779
NYSE 7-21 Current trend down  

NASDAQ 7-28 Current trend down
Transports: 7-27 down  

Russell 2000: 7-27 down   

IBD : 8-24 11176 confirmed uptrend

US markets short term technical trading indicators:

Mikey10 Meter +55 Mikey5 Meter +117(-80 OB, 0 Neutral,  80 OB)
VIX (OB 10 - OS 40) 31.62,VXZ 62.87
Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) +33
 Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) 1.07 10 day average 1.07
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (.34 to 2.5) .80 10 day ave 1.17
Mutual Fund Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66) 1.08
Williams %R 12 day - 10.86 Weekly - 55.53
Bulls 40.9  Bears 36.6 Bull/Bear ratio 1.12
Daily DJIA MACD  --149.93 Rising/ Positive cross 8-25
Weekly MACD -139.03 Falling /Negative cross 5-16

NYSE New Highs 45 (12/7-10 429) New Lows (8-8-11 1345 )5
NASDAQ New Highs 23 (12-7 352) New Lows (8-8-11 712) 12
Advance/Declines

Daily NYSE Advance-Decline  +889 Nasdaq Advance-Decline -15
Daily Mikey A/D line NYSE (7-7 37567) 28820    
Daily Mikey A/D line NASDAQ (2-18 10095) (8-22-10-10443) -5999
5 day AD NYSE +4668 NASDAQ +1931 NYSE..(OB +4000 OS -4000)
10 day AD NYSE +3317(6000 OB -6000 OS)
% above 200 day ave  30%

below 50% indicates intermediate trend may be changing

Days to option expiration 13

DJI Moving Averages

5 day 11499 Rising Price above
20 day 11230 Falling/ Price above

50 day 11915 Falling/Price below
90 day 12132 Falling/Price below
200 day 11992  Flat Price below

20 week 12122 Falling/Price below
50 week 11845 Flat/ Price below
90 week 11217  Flat/Price above
200 week 10706 Falling/ Price above

Comments:

8-1 Debt agreement nears market swings up down up. more and more stock getting slammed, Bonds continue rally oil sell signal. Dollar rallies keep you eye on UUP 21.15 holding near lows. A trade above 21.76 might set it off to the upside. A reversal in the dollar and everything in the QE's unwinds. 

8-2  The 30 year rates closed at 3.89% and the 10 year at 2.59%.

The market broke a 2 1/2 year trendline drawn from the March 09 low through the July 2010 low. The same time it was breaking the trendline it was breaking the 200 day average. The number of NYSE stocks above the 200 day fell to 37% conforming the decline. New lows hit 169 for NYSE and 139 for NASDAQ.

8-3 New lows hit 273 for NYSE. This number was at this level at the lows in 7-29-10. Indication that the DJI is way over priced and masking the damage that is going on now. Gasoline dropped .12 a gallon today and is nearing a trend break. Market holds at intermediate uptrend and reverses up for now.

 8-4 Stocks closed down 515 points to close at 11383. New lows hit 452 for NYSE and 302 for the Nasdaq. Put call ratio ran a hot 1.29 and put premium ran up to 105. Net declines were 2946 down to 152. That is 19 to 1 down vs up stocks. Oil was clocked to the tune of 6.30 today. Gasoline was nailed another .18 today and wholesale gas is at 2.74 30 year closed down 515 points to close at 11383. New lows hit 452 for NYSE and 302 for the Nasdaq. Put call ratio ran a hot 1.29 and put premium ran up to 105. Net declines were 2946 down to 152. That is 19 to 1 down vs up stocks. Oil was clocked to the tune of 6.30 today. Gasoline was nailed another .18 today and wholesale gas is at 2.74 30 year rates 3.66 10 year 2.39. Dollar on verge of reversal. Gold stalled and reversed today closing at 1659
8-5 Dji bounced off 90 week average. at 11179. New lows 814 vs 3 new highs The mikey10 is off the charts at 209 and the Mikey 5 is 134. This indicates that a short term bottom could be near. The intermediate trend is down and the long term trend is now neutral. Bonds were hit on news that the S&P downgraded US debt. That is just another way to get the shorts back in before they rally the bonds higher. I mean why would US bond rally after a downgrade. Well that is the way they do it so look for the bonds to take off again after this pullback.
8-8 DJI catches up with rest of market and trades to 200 week average. NYSE 0 new highs 1345 new lows. Mikey10 at -234 mikey 5 at -173. Mikey OB/OS -32 Weeky MACD below zero jast time was June 2010. The  Fed making money hand over fist on US bond position.
8-9 Fed plays catch today and says they will not hike rates. Really that was big news. The dollar returned to near its lows. Remember keep an eye on the uup it needs to trade above 21.80 to reverse. Today made it feel that QE 3 is on the way the way the currenciers all ripped the dollar. The Fed may not have the balls to do what they need to do which will drag this economy slowly into recession. Mikey 10 still way oversold at -226 Mikey 5 -169, Put call still high at 1.13 on a 400 up day. Closing in on the 5 day average which should be resisitance at 11500. Silver downgraded to neutral with the trend change at below 37.00. Gold keeps on going up 30 to 1743.

8-10 Mikey reading indicate a rally is nearing. The Fed and US treasury sold at aution Tuesday 24 billion of 3 year notes for .51% on wednesday it sold 24 billion of 10 year notes for 2.14% and tomarrow they will sell 16 billion of 30 year bonds at around 3.56%. It was sure nioce that the stock market sell off has created so much demand for US Debt just when the autions came in. Man are they lucky. I think you get the point. The stock market got out of the way and also the Euro bonds when France banking problems surfaced just in time for our auction. The Mikey 10 is a substancially oversold reading of -219 \the Mikey 5 is -161 and the VXZ is a col 58 induication the manager have a healthy respect for this sell off. A rally next week or options expirations week to about 11500 to 11700 would not surprise me at all. 
 8-11 Auction over fear leaves and market rallies bonds sell off and Gold falls.  Not Very original but who cares...right?
8-12 Week ends down a respectable 178 points rallying after the treasury auctions ended, what happens now well it would be perfect if the DJI would rally to about 11850 by next Friday, which was the breakdown and that way the puts would be wiped out. Mikey 5 is a normal +45 and the Mikey 10 is at an oversold -75. VXZ is till showing fear at 56.38 so all in all there is roonm to run it up. The 10 day average of Put/calls is a high 1.33 so the puts are ripe for the picking.
8-15 DJI continues to rally into expirations week Bye Bye puts.
8-16 Perry calls any more printing by the Fed treasonist. Obama needs more printing or the economy is toast.
8-17 Marking time
8-18 Dji drops 400 back near its 200 week and near its long term reversal point of 10,732
8-22 QE3 Ben talks tomorrow. meanwhile market working off oversold condition. Gold rumbles past 1900 margin increase anyone?? Dollar quietly up
8-23 Going into the Fed statement tomorrow the markets have anticipated the Fed to prop up assets and keep this thing from rolling over. Forget the idea that the economy is going to fall into recession. The idea is the same as it was in 2009 and 2010 that the Fed is going to catch it here and print. That is what today's 322 up day was saying. IBD went to market in confirmed uptrend today. Mikey 10 has run positive for the last 2 days the trend has a tendence to follow the 10 up and down. I think it is too early to call here with only 2 days posiitve.
8-24 Gold was 97.50 lower today closing at 1763.80. If this is the same move that I have seen by most parabolic breaks it should see the 90 day average quickly. That average is just happens to be at the July 11 breakout at 1580 or GLD (154).
8-25 Warren Buffett buys 50 billion B of A preferred in private placement. Hey it was his idea they really did not need the money. Who could not use a spare 50 billion.
8-26 No QE3 but don't tell that to the market because it acted like it today
8-29 Greek banks and US economy OK today B of A sells 6 billion holding in China.But I am sure that they don't need the money.
8-30 Pimpco's Bill Gross is now buying US bonds. I guess he is buying them from the Fed and the banks who I am sure are big sellers now. Bonds are starting to look as scary to me as Gold. Interest rates that pay anything are only available in stocks and corporate bonds. Believe me they are taking advantage of these low rates and the public is buying what they are selling. Any investor that invests a these current rates will lose half of their principle in the coming years.  This is going to be the next big debacle that the public faces it has been a long time since the public face interest rte risk but they are now. The Fed says that it will not raise rates for the next two years. That is hard for me to believe.
8-31 Bonds are weakening as commodities and the market challenge their downtrends. If the Fed is doing nnothing then the bond vigilante's are going to come back. They raise rates as commodities and assets rise. The dollar is the beneficiary. This is the exact opposite of easing which is what the Fed has been doing. The economic news is turn more positive. This would support the vigilantes.

Bill Gross is now positive on US Bonds. reverses his short position

Pimpco's Bill Gross is now buying US bonds. I guess he is buying them from the Fed and the banks who I am sure are big sellers now. Bonds are starting to look as scary to me as Gold.

Interest rates that pay anything are only available in stocks and corporate bonds. Believe me they are taking advantage of these low rates and the public is buying what they are selling.

Any investor that invests a these curent rates will lose half of their principle in the coming years due to rising interest rates.  This is going to be the next big debacle that the public faces.  It has been a long time since the public has faced interest rate risk, but they are now. The Fed says that it will not raise rates for the next two years. That is hard for me to believe.

The Fed has created an environment that gives investors no options for safety while earning yield. The banks pay no interest and money market funds pay nothing for the public 401K plans. That is why rates are low not to help the public but to help corporate America transfer the interest rate risk to the public. Locking interest  rates in at these levels is suicide. Rates will move higher from here.


Mikey

 Closing Prices

US Stock Indexes
DJIA 11559.95 +20.70  S/P 500 1212.92 +2.84  
NYSE Comp 7464.00 +13.70 NASDAQ 2576.11 +14.00
S/P Midcap 872.39 +3.69 Russell 728.08 +3.43
DJT 4683.96 +65.34 DJU 432.62 +.38
US bonds and interest rates
US Gov rates: 6 mo .0453%  2 yr .1956% 10 yr 2.15 30 yr 3.51
IEF (US10 yr) 103.37 +.71 TLT (USLT) 108.71 +1.72
MUB (NatlMuni) 106.22 +.02 CalMuni (NCA)8.86 +.03
HYG (High Yield)`86.91 +.16 PFF(Preferred) 37.85 +.05
BND (Total Bond Mkt) 83.51 +.31
Commodities
Commodities Indexes (DBC)30.11 +.40 (USCI )65.76 +.46
Gold 1829.80 +38.20 Silver 41.39 +.84  Copper 4.12 +.03
Platinum 1853.10 +28.10 .Nickel (JJN) 31.94 +.64
Oil 88.90 +1.53 RBOB 2.99 +.09 Nat Gas 3.91 +.08
Grains (JJG)55.66 +.05  Livestock (COW) 29.80 -.17
Cotton (BAL)65.40 +.49 Agg complex(JJA)65.63 +.12 
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.4399 -.0060 Pound 1.6187 -.0100 Swiss Franc 1.2068 -.0041
Yen 1.2861 +.0023 Aussie 1.0745 +.0053
Dollar Index 73.99 +.26
World Debt markets
BWX(Intl Treas) 63.56 -04  PCY(EmerMkt) 27.75 uc
IBND(Intl Corp) 35.10 +.07
All Markets Current Trends

World debt markets

US Bonds: 7-29 current trend up

US Natl Muni Markets:: 8-3 current trend up

Intl Treas Bonds 8-12 current trend up
Intl Corp Bonds 8-17 current trend up
Emerging Markets Debt: ..8-10 current trend up
US High Yield 8-2 current trend down

US Preferred Stocks 7-6 current trend down

Commodities

Commodity index (Broad based) 8-30 current trend up
Gold: .7-6  current trend up

Silver: 8-30  current trend up
Copper 8-5 current trend down
Platinum 8-15 current trend up

Palladium 8-23 current trend down
Nickel 8-8 current trend down

Grain complex 8-22 current trend up
Sugar 8-17  current trend up
Cotton `8-30  current trend neutral

Livestock 8-22 current trend neutral

Coffee 8-22 current trend up
Lumber 8-29 current trend neutral
Agg complex 8-22 current trend up

Oil 8-1 current trend down

Gasoline 8-30 current trend up
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down

World Stock markets

US Stocks: 7-27 current trend down
Europe 7-1 current trend down

China: 6-3 current trend down

Brazil 7-1 current trend down

Japan 8-4 current trend down

India 8-2 current trend down

Russia 8-4 current trend down\
Emerging Markets: 8-2 current trend downl

Total world markets 8-2 current trend down  

Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 8-9 current trend down 
Aussie Dollar 8-29 current trend neutral
Euro 8-16 current trend up
Brit Pd  8-15 current trend up
Swiss Franc: 8-30 current trend neutral
Jap Yen 7-11 current trend up

Canadian Dollar 8-4 current trend down
Mexican Peso 8-4 current trend down
Brazilian Real 8-29 current trend neutral
Indian Rupe 8-8 current trend down

Trend changes:

World Stocks:
Currencies:  Swiss Franc to neutral
Commodities: Silver up Gasoline up, commoditiy broad index up
World Debt :

US Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term down  7-28 12240

Mikey Intermediate Trend: down  8-4-11 11779
Mikey Long term Neutral 8-4-11 11779
NYSE 7-21 Current trend down  

NASDAQ 7-28 Current trend down
Transports: 7-27 down  

Russell 2000: 7-27 down   

IBD : 8-24 11176 confirmed uptrend

US markets short term technical trading indicators:

Mikey10 Meter +50 Mikey5 Meter +124(-80 OB, 0 Neutral,  80 OB)
VIX (OB 10 - OS 40) 32.89,VXZ 63.55
Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) +28
 Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) 1.01 10 day average 1.08
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (.34 to 2.5) .90 10 day ave 1.21
Mutual Fund Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66) 1.08
Williams %R 12 day - 8.68 Weekly - 56.49
Bulls 40.9  Bears 33.3 Bull/Bear ratio 1.23
Daily DJIA MACD  -186.25  Rising/ Positive cross 8-25
Weekly MACD -139.21  Falling /Negative cross 5-16

NYSE New Highs 42(12/7-10 429) New Lows (8-8-11 1345 )4
NASDAQ New Highs 25 (12-7 352) New Lows (8-8-11 712) 22
Advance/Declines

Daily NYSE Advance-Decline  +826 Nasdaq Advance-Decline +120
Daily Mikey A/D line NYSE (7-7 37567) 27931    
Daily Mikey A/D line NASDAQ (2-18 10095) (8-22-10-10443) -5984
5 day AD NYSE +4942 NASDAQ +2782 NYSE..(OB +4000 OS -4000)
10 day AD NYSE +3020 (6000 OB -6000 OS)
% above 200 day ave  29%

below 50% indicates intermediate trend may be changing

Days to option expiration 14

DJI Moving Averages

5 day 11370 Rising Price above
20 day 11244 Falling/ Price above

50 day 11926 Falling/Price below
90 day 12142 Falling/Price below
200 day 11990  Flat Price below

20 week 12122 Falling/Price below
50 week 11845 Flat/ Price below
90 week 11217  Flat/Price above
200 week 10706 Falling/ Price above

Comments:

7-29 US bonds have big up day at 6 month highs 30 year to 4.11 10 year to 2.80. Mortgages should fall. Stocks continue down nearing the 200 day average which is at 11977 or near its mid June lows. Mikey5 is at -176 and the mikey10 is -78.  MACD is nearing zero at 7.68 and only 42% of the stocks are above the 200 day showing that the DJI is masking the decline.

8-1 Debt agreement nears market swings up down up. more and more stock getting slammed, Bonds continue rally oil sell signal. Dollar rallies keep you eye on UUP 21.15 holding near lows. A trade above 21.76 might set it off to the upside. A reversal in the dollar and everything in the QE's unwinds. 

8-2  The 30 year rates closed at 3.89% and the 10 year at 2.59%.

The market broke a 2 1/2 year trendline drawn from the March 09 low through the July 2010 low. The same time it was breaking the trendline it was breaking the 200 day average. The number of NYSE stocks above the 200 day fell to 37% conforming the decline. New lows hit 169 for NYSE and 139 for NASDAQ.

8-3 New lows hit 273 for NYSE. This number was at this level at the lows in 7-29-10. Indication that the DJI is way over priced and masking the damage that is going on now. Gasoline dropped .12 a gallon today and is nearing a trend break. Market holds at intermediate uptrend and reverses up for now.

 8-4 Stocks closed down 515 points to close at 11383. New lows hit 452 for NYSE and 302 for the Nasdaq. Put call ratio ran a hot 1.29 and put premium ran up to 105. Net declines were 2946 down to 152. That is 19 to 1 down vs up stocks. Oil was clocked to the tune of 6.30 today. Gasoline was nailed another .18 today and wholesale gas is at 2.74 30 year closed down 515 points to close at 11383. New lows hit 452 for NYSE and 302 for the Nasdaq. Put call ratio ran a hot 1.29 and put premium ran up to 105. Net declines were 2946 down to 152. That is 19 to 1 down vs up stocks. Oil was clocked to the tune of 6.30 today. Gasoline was nailed another .18 today and wholesale gas is at 2.74 30 year rates 3.66 10 year 2.39. Dollar on verge of reversal. Gold stalled and reversed today closing at 1659
8-5 Dji bounced off 90 week average. at 11179. New lows 814 vs 3 new highs The mikey10 is off the charts at 209 and the Mikey 5 is 134. This indicates that a short term bottom could be near. The intermediate trend is down and the long term trend is now neutral. Bonds were hit on news that the S&P downgraded US debt. That is just another way to get the shorts back in before they rally the bonds higher. I mean why would US bond rally after a downgrade. Well that is the way they do it so look for the bonds to take off again after this pullback.
8-8 DJI catches up with rest of market and trades to 200 week average. NYSE 0 new highs 1345 new lows. Mikey10 at -234 mikey 5 at -173. Mikey OB/OS -32 Weeky MACD below zero jast time was June 2010. The  Fed making money hand over fist on US bond position.
8-9 Fed plays catch today and says they will not hike rates. Really that was big news. The dollar returned to near its lows. Remember keep an eye on the uup it needs to trade above 21.80 to reverse. Today made it feel that QE 3 is on the way the way the currenciers all ripped the dollar. The Fed may not have the balls to do what they need to do which will drag this economy slowly into recession. Mikey 10 still way oversold at -226 Mikey 5 -169, Put call still high at 1.13 on a 400 up day. Closing in on the 5 day average which should be resisitance at 11500. Silver downgraded to neutral with the trend change at below 37.00. Gold keeps on going up 30 to 1743.

8-10 Mikey reading indicate a rally is nearing. The Fed and US treasury sold at aution Tuesday 24 billion of 3 year notes for .51% on wednesday it sold 24 billion of 10 year notes for 2.14% and tomarrow they will sell 16 billion of 30 year bonds at around 3.56%. It was sure nioce that the stock market sell off has created so much demand for US Debt just when the autions came in. Man are they lucky. I think you get the point. The stock market got out of the way and also the Euro bonds when France banking problems surfaced just in time for our auction. The Mikey 10 is a substancially oversold reading of -219 \the Mikey 5 is -161 and the VXZ is a col 58 induication the manager have a healthy respect for this sell off. A rally next week or options expirations week to about 11500 to 11700 would not surprise me at all. 
 8-11 Auction over fear leaves and market rallies bonds sell off and Gold falls.  Not Very original but who cares...right?
8-12 Week ends down a respectable 178 points rallying after the treasury auctions ended, what happens now well it would be perfect if the DJI would rally to about 11850 by next Friday, which was the breakdown and that way the puts would be wiped out. Mikey 5 is a normal +45 and the Mikey 10 is at an oversold -75. VXZ is till showing fear at 56.38 so all in all there is roonm to run it up. The 10 day average of Put/calls is a high 1.33 so the puts are ripe for the picking.
8-15 DJI continues to rally into expirations week Bye Bye puts.
8-16 Perry calls any more printing by the Fed treasonist. Obama needs more printing or the economy is toast.
8-17 Marking time
8-18 Dji drops 400 back near its 200 week and near its long term reversal point of 10,732
8-22 QE3 Ben talks tomorrow. meanwhile market working off oversold condition. Gold rumbles past 1900 margin increase anyone?? Dollar quietly up
8-23 Going into the Fed statement tomorrow the markets have anticipated the Fed to prop up assets and keep this thing from rolling over. Forget the idea that the economy is going to fall into recession. The idea is the same as it was in 2009 and 2010 that the Fed is going to catch it here and print. That is what today's 322 up day was saying. IBD went to market in confirmed uptrend today. Mikey 10 has run positive for the last 2 days the trend has a tendence to follow the 10 up and down. I think it is too early to call here with only 2 days posiitve.
8-24 Gold was 97.50 lower today closing at 1763.80. If this is the same move that I have seen by most parabolic breaks it should see the 90 day average quickly. That average is just happens to be at the July 11 breakout at 1580 or GLD (154).
8-25 Warren Buffett buys 50 billion B of A preferred in private placement. Hey it ws his idea they really did not need the money. Who could not use a spare 50 billion.
8-26 No QE3 but don't tell that to the market because it acted like it today
8-29 Greek banks and US economy OK today
8-30 Pimpco's Bill Gross is now buying US bonds. I guess he is buying them from the Fed and the banks who I am sure are big sellers now. Bonds are starting to look as scary to me as Gold. Interest rates that pay anything are only available in stocks and corporate bonds. Believe me they are taking advantage of these low rates and the public is buying what they are selling. Any investor that invests a these curent rates will lose half of their principle in the coming years.  This is going to be the next big debacle that the public faces it has been a long time since the public face interest rte risk but they are now. The Fed says that it will not raise rates for the next two years. That is hard for me to believe.

CNBC runs Gold Series

This is a quote from Bob Pasini this morning:


Gold rose again this morning, partly on our CNBC interview with Charles Evans, president of the Chicago Federal Reserve. Traders—who tend to be inflation hawks and so are rather impatient with those they perceive to be doves such as Evans, Dudley, or Yellen, immediately came out and assailed Evans for stating that "the dual mandate tells us that we need to be more accommodating than we have been."
"The Gold Rush," CNBC's series on the gold industry, airs Tuesday. 


I mentioned yesterday that the market is acting like QE3 is coming but that the dollar is stable. Today Charles Evans of the Chicago Fed appears on CNBC and talks accomodation. Then today magically CNBC airs a series on Gold.


This reminds me of 2005 when CNBC hyped the then hot Real Estate markets in the US. I am becoming more convinced that the Fed really is doing nothing more than playing with smoke and mirrors now, and that Gold is on its last legs. Gold is up 37.50 at 1828 this AM. It has reversed a short term sell off and is back above all of its moving averages.

Mikey

Economy turns up 1 week after US Treasury auctions

It a stunning reversal, stocks, the economy, and the Greece banking system turn strongly higher 1 week after the the US treasury sold billions of bonds at very low interest rates. Thank God they did not know about all this good news a week ago or it would have cost the treasury much higher interest rates.

Market indicators show the Mikey 5 at a very high 156 but the Mikey 10 still at a neutral +12 this should change in the next three days. The Put/call ratio shows that the put buyers are losing their resolve as it comes in at .77 today Put preiums fell below 100 to 98 today so the sellers are also not as worried. New lows contracted for both the NASDAQ and the NYSE

The 50 week average is the resistance area now at 11845 which is also the breakdown. I would not even be surprised to see 12000 again. I still view this as a shorting opportunity but want to give it more room.

I find it interesting that everything is acting just like it did on QE1 and QE2 except that the dollar is not tanking. It is pulling back but as of yet is not breaking down. I think the traders are front running what they think will be the Fed action.  Remember they said they are not doing anything now.

Mikey

 Closing Prices

US Stock Indexes
DJIA 11539.55 254.71 S/P 500 1210.08 +33.28
NYSE Comp 7450.30 204.48  NASDAQ 2562.11 +82.26
S/P Midcap 868.70 +32.78 Russell 724.65 +32.68
DJT 4618.62 +158.45 DJU 432.24 +8.56
US bonds and interest rates
US Gov rates: 6 mo .0528%  2 yr .2033% 10 yr 2.23 30 yr 3.57
IEF (US10 yr) 102.66 -.68 TLT (USLT) 106.99 -1.50
MUB (NatlMuni) 106.19 -.08  CalMuni (NCA)8.83 +.01
HYG (High Yield)`86.75 +.87 PFF(Preferred) 37.80+.48
BND (Total Bond Mkt) 83.20 +.20
Commodities
Commodities Indexes (DBC)29.70 +.10 (USCI )65.30 +.07
Gold 1791.60 -5.70 Silver 40.55 -.50 Copper 4.09 -.01
Platinum 1825 -1.00 .Nickel (JJN) 31.30 +.03 
Oil 87.37 +1.90 RBOB 2.90 -.03 Nat Gas 3.83 -.10
Grains (JJG)55.61 +.51  Livestock (COW) 29.01 -.01
Cotton (BAL)64.91 +.25 Agg complex(JJA)65.51 +.56
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.4459 +.0016 Pound 1.6287 +.0055 Swiss Franc 1.2109 -.0136
Yen 1.2838 -.0022 Aussie 1.0692 +.0079
Dollar Index 73.73 -.14
World Debt markets
BWX(Intl Treas) 63.60 +.10 PCY(EmerMkt) 27.75 +.11
IBND(Intl Corp) 35.03 -.18
All Markets Current Trends

World debt markets

US Bonds: 7-29 current trend up

US Natl Muni Markets:: 8-3 current trend up

Intl Treas Bonds 8-12 current trend up
Intl Corp Bonds 8-17 current trend up
Emerging Markets Debt: ..8-10 current trend up
US High Yield 8-2 current trend down

US Preferred Stocks 7-6 current trend down

Commodities

Commodity index (Broad based) 8-29 current trend neutral
Gold: .7-6  current trend up

Silver: 8-23 current trend neutral
Copper 8-5 current trend down
Platinum 8-15 current trend up

Palladium 8-23 current trend down
Nickel 8-8 current trend down

Grain complex 8-22 current trend up
Sugar 8-17  current trend up
Cotton `4-25 current trend down

Livestock 8-22 current trend neutral

Coffee 8-22 current trend up
Lumber 8-29 current trend neutral
Agg complex 8-22 current trend up

Oil 8-1 current trend down

Gasoline 8-29 current trend neutral
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down

World Stock markets

US Stocks: 7-27 current trend down
Europe 7-1 current trend down

China: 6-3 current trend down

Brazil 7-1 current trend down

Japan 8-4 current trend down

India 8-2 current trend down

Russia 8-4 current trend down\
Emerging Markets: 8-2 current trend downl

Total world markets 8-2 current trend down  

Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 8-9 current trend down 
Aussie Dollar 8-29 current trend neutral
Euro 8-16 current trend up
Brit Pd  8-15 current trend up
Swiss Franc: 2-17 current trend up..
Jap Yen 7-11 current trend up

Canadian Dollar 8-4 current trend down
Mexican Peso 8-4 current trend down
Brazilian Real 8-29 current trend neutral
Indian Rupe 8-8 current trend neutral

Trend changes:

World Stocks:
Currencies:  Aussie and Real to neutral
Commodities: Lumber and Gasoline to Neutral
World Debt :

US Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term down  7-28 12240

Mikey Intermediate Trend: down  8-4-11 11779
Mikey Long term Neutral 8-4-11 11779
NYSE 7-21 Current trend down  

NASDAQ 7-28 Current trend down
Transports: 7-27 down  

Russell 2000: 7-27 down   

IBD : 8-24 11176 confirmed uptrend

US markets short term technical trading indicators:

Mikey10 Meter +12 Mikey5 Meter +156 (-80 OB, 0 Neutral,  80 OB)
VIX (OB 10 - OS 40) 32.28 ,VXZ 62.29
Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) +31
 Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) .77 10 day average 1.08
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (.34 to 2.5) .98 10 day ave 1.23
Mutual Fund Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66) 1.08
Williams %R 12 day - 80.79 Weekly - 56.67
Bulls 40.9  Bears 33.3 Bull/Bear ratio 1.23
Daily DJIA MACD  -224.2 Rising/ Positive cross 8-25
Weekly MACD -129 Falling /Negative cross 5-16

NYSE New Highs 31(12/7-10 429) New Lows (8-8-11 1345 )11
NASDAQ New Highs 26 (12-7 352) New Lows (8-8-11 712) 31
Advance/Declines

Daily NYSE Advance-Decline  +2527 Nasdaq Advance-Decline +1930
Daily Mikey A/D line NYSE (7-7 37567) 27105    
Daily Mikey A/D line NASDAQ (2-18 10095) (8-22-10-10443) --6104
5 day AD NYSE +6229 NASDAQ +4339 NYSE..(OB +4000 OS -4000)
10 day AD NYSE +700 (6000 OB -6000 OS)
% above 200 day ave (6-13 47%) 28%

below 50% indicates intermediate trend may be changing

Days to option expiration 15

DJI Moving Averages

5 day 11293 Rising Price above
20 day 11260 Falling/ Price above

50 day 11937 Falling/Price below
90 day 12152 Falling/Price below
200 day 11988  Flat Price below

20 week 12122 Falling/Price below
50 week 11845 Flat/ Price below
90 week 11217  Flat/Price above
200 week 10706 Falling/ Price above

Comments:

7-29 US bonds have big up day at 6 month highs 30 year to 4.11 10 year to 2.80. Mortgages should fall. Stocks continue down nearing the 200 day average which is at 11977 or near its mid June lows. Mikey5 is at -176 and the mikey10 is -78.  MACD is nearing zero at 7.68 and only 42% of the stocks are above the 200 day showing that the DJI is masking the decline.

8-1 Debt agreement nears market swings up down up. more and more stock getting slammed, Bonds continue rally oil sell signal. Dollar rallies keep you eye on UUP 21.15 holding near lows. A trade above 21.76 might set it off to the upside. A reversal in the dollar and everything in the QE's unwinds. 

8-2  The 30 year rates closed at 3.89% and the 10 year at 2.59%.

The market broke a 2 1/2 year trendline drawn from the March 09 low through the July 2010 low. The same time it was breaking the trendline it was breaking the 200 day average. The number of NYSE stocks above the 200 day fell to 37% conforming the decline. New lows hit 169 for NYSE and 139 for NASDAQ.

8-3 New lows hit 273 for NYSE. This number was at this level at the lows in 7-29-10. Indication that the DJI is way over priced and masking the damage that is going on now. Gasoline dropped .12 a gallon today and is nearing a trend break. Market holds at intermediate uptrend and reverses up for now.

 8-4 Stocks closed down 515 points to close at 11383. New lows hit 452 for NYSE and 302 for the Nasdaq. Put call ratio ran a hot 1.29 and put premium ran up to 105. Net declines were 2946 down to 152. That is 19 to 1 down vs up stocks. Oil was clocked to the tune of 6.30 today. Gasoline was nailed another .18 today and wholesale gas is at 2.74 30 year closed down 515 points to close at 11383. New lows hit 452 for NYSE and 302 for the Nasdaq. Put call ratio ran a hot 1.29 and put premium ran up to 105. Net declines were 2946 down to 152. That is 19 to 1 down vs up stocks. Oil was clocked to the tune of 6.30 today. Gasoline was nailed another .18 today and wholesale gas is at 2.74 30 year rates 3.66 10 year 2.39. Dollar on verge of reversal. Gold stalled and reversed today closing at 1659
8-5 Dji bounced off 90 week average. at 11179. New lows 814 vs 3 new highs The mikey10 is off the charts at 209 and the Mikey 5 is 134. This indicates that a short term bottom could be near. The intermediate trend is down and the long term trend is now neutral. Bonds were hit on news that the S&P downgraded US debt. That is just another way to get the shorts back in before they rally the bonds higher. I mean why would US bond rally after a downgrade. Well that is the way they do it so look for the bonds to take off again after this pullback.
8-8 DJI catches up with rest of market and trades to 200 week average. NYSE 0 new highs 1345 new lows. Mikey10 at -234 mikey 5 at -173. Mikey OB/OS -32 Weeky MACD below zero jast time was June 2010. The  Fed making money hand over fist on US bond position.
8-9 Fed plays catch today and says they will not hike rates. Really that was big news. The dollar returned to near its lows. Remember keep an eye on the uup it needs to trade above 21.80 to reverse. Today made it feel that QE 3 is on the way the way the currenciers all ripped the dollar. The Fed may not have the balls to do what they need to do which will drag this economy slowly into recession. Mikey 10 still way oversold at -226 Mikey 5 -169, Put call still high at 1.13 on a 400 up day. Closing in on the 5 day average which should be resisitance at 11500. Silver downgraded to neutral with the trend change at below 37.00. Gold keeps on going up 30 to 1743.

8-10 Mikey reading indicate a rally is nearing. The Fed and US treasury sold at aution Tuesday 24 billion of 3 year notes for .51% on wednesday it sold 24 billion of 10 year notes for 2.14% and tomarrow they will sell 16 billion of 30 year bonds at around 3.56%. It was sure nioce that the stock market sell off has created so much demand for US Debt just when the autions came in. Man are they lucky. I think you get the point. The stock market got out of the way and also the Euro bonds when France banking problems surfaced just in time for our auction. The Mikey 10 is a substancially oversold reading of -219 \the Mikey 5 is -161 and the VXZ is a col 58 induication the manager have a healthy respect for this sell off. A rally next week or options expirations week to about 11500 to 11700 would not surprise me at all. 
 8-11 Auction over fear leaves and market rallies bonds sell off and Gold falls.  Not Very original but who cares...right?
8-12 Week ends down a respectable 178 points rallying after the treasury auctions ended, what happens now well it would be perfect if the DJI would rally to about 11850 by next Friday, which was the breakdown and that way the puts would be wiped out. Mikey 5 is a normal +45 and the Mikey 10 is at an oversold -75. VXZ is till showing fear at 56.38 so all in all there is roonm to run it up. The 10 day average of Put/calls is a high 1.33 so the puts are ripe for the picking.
8-15 DJI continues to rally into expirations week Bye Bye puts.
8-16 Perry calls any more printing by the Fed treasonist. Obama needs more printing or the economy is toast.
8-17 Marking time
8-18 Dji drops 400 back near its 200 week and near its long term reversal point of 10,732
8-22 QE3 Ben talks tomorrow. meanwhile market working off oversold condition. Gold rumbles past 1900 margin increase anyone?? Dollar quietly up
8-23 Going into the Fed statement tomorrow the markets have anticipated the Fed to prop up assets and keep this thing from rolling over. Forget the idea that the economy is going to fall into recession. The idea is the same as it was in 2009 and 2010 that the Fed is going to catch it here and print. That is what today's 322 up day was saying. IBD went to market in confirmed uptrend today. Mikey 10 has run positive for the last 2 days the trend has a tendence to follow the 10 up and down. I think it is too early to call here with only 2 days posiitve.
8-24 Gold was 97.50 lower today closing at 1763.80. If this is the same move that I have seen by most parabolic breaks it should see the 90 day average quickly. That average is just happens to be at the July 11 breakout at 1580 or GLD (154).
8-25 Warren Buffett buys 50 billion B of A preferred in private placement. Hey it ws his idea they really did not need the money. Who could not use a spare 50 billion.
8-26 No QE3 but don't tell that to the market because it acted like it today
8-29 Greek banks and US economy OK today

Warren Buffet lends B of A 50 Billion...Golly gee a cheap stock that Buffet is backing How can you miss

Warren Buffett buys 50 billion B of A preferred in private placement. Hey it was his idea they really did not need the money. Who could not use a spare 50 billion.  The net net of this is that B of A is in big trouble even though Warren had this idea while he was taking a bath and it was strickly his idea. I wonder who was in the tub with him at the time.

Mikey rule number one is that a cheap stock will ALWAYS get cheaper. A stock is not truly cheap until the public believes that it is going out of business. B of A is being hand feed to the public buy using the Buffet name. 

One plus one says that here is a cheap stock and the greatest investor in the history of man is backing it. How much more obvious a buy can it be. My reality says that when a stock is first thought to be cheap stay away from it and even short rallies. Cheap is the first step on the way to disaster.

Mikey

 Closing Prices

US Stock Indexes
DJIA 11149.82 -170.89 S/P 500 1159.27 -18.33
NYSE Comp 7149.67 -1230.46 NASDAQ 2419.63 -48.06
S/P Midcap 814.27 -18.50  Russell 674.42 -18.178
DJT 4343.73 -84.70 DJU 424.55 -6.73
US bonds and interest rates
US Gov rates: 6 mo .028%  2 yr .2308% 10 yr 2.29 30 yr 3.64
IEF (US10 yr) 103.01 +.63 TLT (USLT) 107.43 +1.15
MUB (NatlMuni) 106.07 +.31 CalMuni (NCA)8.85 uc
HYG (High Yield)`85.02 -.69 PFF(Preferred) 37.09 +.41
BND (Total Bond Mkt) 83.30 +.23
Commodities
Commodities Indexes (DBC)29.78 +.13 (USCI )64.68 +26
Gold 1753.20 -10.30 Silver 40.75 +.95 Copper 4.07 +.02
Platinum 1822.40 -3.90 .Nickel (JJN) \30.67 +.43
Oil 85.30 +.27 RBOB 2.97 +.09 Nat Gas 3.93 +.02
Grains (JJG)53.70 +.08 Livestock (COW) 29.00 -.18
Cotton (BAL)64.28 -1.31 Agg complex(JJA)63.52 +.08
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.4322 -.0023 Pound 1.6172 -.0089 Swiss Franc 1.2473 +.0031
Yen 1.2724 -.0082  Aussie 1.0465 -.0040  
 Dollar Index 74.36 +.27
World Debt markets
BWX(Intl Treas) 63.05 -.25 PCY(EmerMkt) 37.01 -.41
IBND(Intl Corp) 34.97 +.02


All Markets Current Trends

World debt markets

US Bonds: 7-29 current trend up

US Natl Muni Markets:: 8-3 current trend up

Intl Treas Bonds 8-12 current trend up
Intl Corp Bonds 8-17 current trend up
Emerging Markets Debt: ..8-10 current trend up
US High Yield 8-2 current trend down

US Preferred Stocks 7-6 current trend down

Commodities

Commodity index (Broad based) 8-4 current trend down
Gold: .7-6  current trend up

Silver: 8-23 current trend neutral
Copper 8-5 current trend down
Platinum 8-15 current trend up

Palladium 8-23 current trend down
Nickel 8-8 current trend down

Grain complex 8-22 current trend up
Sugar 8-17  current trend up
Cotton `4-25 current trend down

Livestock 8-22 current trend neutral

Coffee 8-22 current trend up
Lumber 7-28  current trend down

Agg complex 8-22 current trend up
Oil 8-1 current trend down

Gasoline 8-4  current trend down
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down

World Stock markets

US Stocks: 7-27 current trend down
Europe 7-1 current trend down

China: 6-3 current trend down

Brazil 7-1 current trend down

Japan 8-4 current trend down

India 8-2 current trend down

Russia 8-4 current trend down\
Emerging Markets: 8-2 current trend downl

Total world markets 8-2 current trend down  

Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 8-9 current trend down 
Aussie Dollar 8-4 current trend down
Euro 8-16 current trend up
Brit Pd  8-15 current trend up
Swiss Franc: 2-17 current trend up..
Jap Yen 7-11 current trend up

Canadian Dollar 8-4 current trend down
Mexican Peso 8-4 current trend down
Brazilian Real 8-23 current trend down
Indian Rupe 8-8 current trend neutral

Trend changes:

World Stocks:
Currencies: 
Commodities:
World Debt :

US Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term down  7-28 12240

Mikey Intermediate Trend: down  8-4-11 11779
Mikey Long term Neutral 8-4-11 11779
NYSE 7-21 Current trend down  

NASDAQ 7-28 Current trend down
Transports: 7-27 down  

Russell 2000: 7-27 down   

IBD : 8-24 11176 confirmed uptrend

US markets short term technical trading indicators:

Mikey10 Meter -5 Mikey5 Meter -8 (-80 OB, 0 Neutral,  80 OB)
VIX (OB 10 - OS 40) 39.76 ,VXZ 63.29
Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) +1
 Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) 1.09 10 day average 1.09
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (.34 to 2.5) 1.11 10 day ave 1.26
Mutual Fund Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66) 1.08
Williams %R 12 day - 47.49 Weekly - 66.66
Bulls 40.9  Bears 33.3 Bull/Bear ratio 1.23
Daily DJIA MACD  -266.95 Rising/ Positive cross 8-25
Weekly MACD -126.12 Falling /Negative cross 5-16

NYSE New Highs 12(12/7-10 429) New Lows (8-8-11 1345 )52
NASDAQ New Highs 7 (12-7 352) New Lows (8-8-11 712) 62
Advance/Declines

Daily NYSE Advance-Decline  -1584  Nasdaq Advance-Decline -1561
Daily Mikey A/D line NYSE (7-7 37567) 22568    
Daily Mikey A/D line NASDAQ (2-18 10095) (8-22-10-10443) +9491
5 day AD NYSE -212 NASDAQ -441 NYSE..(OB +4000 OS -4000)
10 day AD NYSE -455 (6000 OB -6000 OS)
% above 200 day ave (6-13 47%) 20%

below 50% indicates intermediate trend may be changing

Days to option expiration 17

DJI Moving Averages

5 day 11242 Rising Price below
20 day 11291 Falling/ Price below

50 day 11947 Falling/Price below
90 day 12163 Falling/Price below
200 day 11987 Falling Price below

20 week 12141 Falling/Price below
50 week 11818 Flat/ Price below
90 week 11200  Flat/Price below
200 week 10714 Falling/ Price above

Comments:

7-25 Debt talks taken public flame is turned up on the public STOD FEIC 36.57 RS 94. mikey meter at -47 indicating downward pressure over the last 10 days.

7-27 AD line tanking, Mikey meter -60, Daily MACD Negative cross, DJI closes at 50 day, DJT and Russel 2000  break down to 200 day, less than 50% of all NYSE stocks are above their 200 day averages. IBD goes to market in correction Mikey goes to neutral.

7-28 Meter reads -153 for 5 day and -90 for 10 day either we crash or the market is close to a rally. Put/call is .97 10 day so the puts are out on a limb again, Put premium is finally starting to rise at .81 10 day but is saying that puts are still cheap relative to calls. %R is all the way down on the daily and half the way down on the weekly. I gave a sell signal today but it looks like the decline is slowing

7-29 US bonds have big up day at 6 month highs 30 year to 4.11 10 year to 2.80. Mortgages should fall. Stocks continue down nearing the 200 day average which is at 11977 or near its mid June lows. Mikey5 is at -176 and the mikey10 is -78.  MACD is nearing zero at 7.68 and only 42% of the stocks are above the 200 day showing that the DJI is masking the decline.

8-1 Debt agreement nears market swings up down up. more and more stock getting slammed, Bonds continue rally oil sell signal. Dollar rallies keep you eye on UUP 21.15 holding near lows. A trade above 21.76 might set it off to the upside. A reversal in the dollar and everything in the QE's unwinds. 

8-2  The 30 year rates closed at 3.89% and the 10 year at 2.59%.

The market broke a 2 1/2 year trendline drawn from the March 09 low through the July 2010 low. The same time it was breaking the trendline it was breaking the 200 day average. The number of NYSE stocks above the 200 day fell to 37% conforming the decline. New lows hit 169 for NYSE and 139 for NASDAQ.

8-3 New lows hit 273 for NYSE. This number was at this level at the lows in 7-29-10. Indication that the DJI is way over priced and masking the damage that is going on now. Gasoline dropped .12 a gallon today and is nearing a trend break. Market holds at intermediate uptrend and reverses up for now.

 8-4 Stocks closed down 515 points to close at 11383. New lows hit 452 for NYSE and 302 for the Nasdaq. Put call ratio ran a hot 1.29 and put premium ran up to 105. Net declines were 2946 down to 152. That is 19 to 1 down vs up stocks. Oil was clocked to the tune of 6.30 today. Gasoline was nailed another .18 today and wholesale gas is at 2.74 30 year closed down 515 points to close at 11383. New lows hit 452 for NYSE and 302 for the Nasdaq. Put call ratio ran a hot 1.29 and put premium ran up to 105. Net declines were 2946 down to 152. That is 19 to 1 down vs up stocks. Oil was clocked to the tune of 6.30 today. Gasoline was nailed another .18 today and wholesale gas is at 2.74 30 year rates 3.66 10 year 2.39. Dollar on verge of reversal. Gold stalled and reversed today closing at 1659
8-5 Dji bounced off 90 week average. at 11179. New lows 814 vs 3 new highs The mikey10 is off the charts at 209 and the Mikey 5 is 134. This indicates that a short term bottom could be near. The intermediate trend is down and the long term trend is now neutral. Bonds were hit on news that the S&P downgraded US debt. That is just another way to get the shorts back in before they rally the bonds higher. I mean why would US bond rally after a downgrade. Well that is the way they do it so look for the bonds to take off again after this pullback.
8-8 DJI catches up with rest of market and trades to 200 week average. NYSE 0 new highs 1345 new lows. Mikey10 at -234 mikey 5 at -173. Mikey OB/OS -32 Weeky MACD below zero jast time was June 2010. The  Fed making money hand over fist on US bond position.
8-9 Fed plays catch today and says they will not hike rates. Really that was big news. The dollar returned to near its lows. Remember keep an eye on the uup it needs to trade above 21.80 to reverse. Today made it feel that QE 3 is on the way the way the currenciers all ripped the dollar. The Fed may not have the balls to do what they need to do which will drag this economy slowly into recession. Mikey 10 still way oversold at -226 Mikey 5 -169, Put call still high at 1.13 on a 400 up day. Closing in on the 5 day average which should be resisitance at 11500. Silver downgraded to neutral with the trend change at below 37.00. Gold keeps on going up 30 to 1743.

8-10 Mikey reading indicate a rally is nearing. The Fed and US treasury sold at aution Tuesday 24 billion of 3 year notes for .51% on wednesday it sold 24 billion of 10 year notes for 2.14% and tomarrow they will sell 16 billion of 30 year bonds at around 3.56%. It was sure nioce that the stock market sell off has created so much demand for US Debt just when the autions came in. Man are they lucky. I think you get the point. The stock market got out of the way and also the Euro bonds when France banking problems surfaced just in time for our auction. The Mikey 10 is a substancially oversold reading of -219 \the Mikey 5 is -161 and the VXZ is a col 58 induication the manager have a healthy respect for this sell off. A rally next week or options expirations week to about 11500 to 11700 would not surprise me at all. 
 8-11 Auction over fear leaves and market rallies bonds sell off and Gold falls.  Not Very original but who cares...right?
8-12 Week ends down a respectable 178 points rallying after the treasury auctions ended, what happens now well it would be perfect if the DJI would rally to about 11850 by next Friday, which was the breakdown and that way the puts would be wiped out. Mikey 5 is a normal +45 and the Mikey 10 is at an oversold -75. VXZ is till showing fear at 56.38 so all in all there is roonm to run it up. The 10 day average of Put/calls is a high 1.33 so the puts are ripe for the picking.
8-15 DJI continues to rally into expirations week Bye Bye puts.
8-16 Perry calls any more printing by the Fed treasonist. Obama needs more printing or the economy is toast.
8-17 Marking time
8-18 Dji drops 400 back near its 200 week and near its long term reversal point of 10,732
8-22 QE3 Ben talks tomorrow. meanwhile market working off oversold condition. Gold rumbles past 1900 margin increase anyone?? Dollar quietly up
8-23 Going into the Fed statement tomorrow the markets have anticipated the Fed to prop up assets and keep this thing from rolling over. Forget the idea that the economy is going to fall into recession. The idea is the same as it was in 2009 and 2010 that the Fed is going to catch it here and print. That is what today's 322 up day was saying. IBD went to market in confirmed uptrend today. Mikey 10 has run positive for the last 2 days the trend has a tendence to follow the 10 up and down. I think it is too early to call here with only 2 days posiitve.
8-24 Gold was 97.50 lower today closing at 1763.80. If this is the same move that I have seen by most parabolic breaks it should see the 90 day average quickly. That average is just happens to be at the July 11 breakout at 1580 or GLD (154).
8-25 Warren Buffett buys 50 billion B of A preferred in private placement. Hey it ws his idea they really did not need the money. Who could not use a spare 50 billion.