World markets turn back up..Nat Gas on verge of major trend reversal

Closing Prices


US Stocks
DJIA 12569.79 +126.31 SPX 1345.20 +14.10 NASDAQ 2835.30 +38.44
MDY 182.54 +2.65 Russell 2000 848.30 +12.04 DJT 5469.55 +60.97
DJU 436.37 +2.83
US bonds and interest rates
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1017%  2 yr .4764% 10 yr 3.07 uc 30 yr 4.23 -.01
IEF(US10 yr) 96.62 +.18 TLT (USLT) 96.66 +.19
MUB (NatlMuni)103.95 +.40 CalMuni (NCA) 8.90 +.02
HYG (High Yield) 92.39 +.09 PFF(Preferred) 40.15 +.08
BND (Total Bond Mkt) 81.73 +.15
Commodities
Commodities Indexes (DBC)30.10 +.02 (USCI)67.65 +.50
Gold 1535.90 -.40 Silver 38.40 +.44 Copper 4.18 UC
Platinum 1834 +34.00 Nickel (JJN) 34.50 +.78 
Oil 102.70 +2.11 RBOB 3.05 -.04 Nat Gas 4.66 +.15
Grains (JJG)54.26 -1.03 Livestock (COW) 28.05 +.10
Cotton (BAL) 87.55 +2.78 Agg complex(JJA) 63.77 -.41
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Aussie 1.0719 -.0010 Euro 1.4336 +.0101 Pound 1.6339 +.0031
Yen 1.2104 -.0103 Can$ 1.0267 +.0091 USD Index 74.69 -.33
World Debt markets
BWX(Intl Treas) 61.90 +.26 PCY(EmerMkt) 27.17 +.21
IBND(Intl Corp) 34.91 +.22

All Markets Current Trends

World debt markets
US Bonds: 4-15 current trend up

US Natl Muni Markets: : 2-18 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 5-27 current trend up
Intl Corp Bonds 5-27 current trend up\
Emerging Markets Debt: ..3-24 current trend up weakening

Commodities
Commodity index (Broad based) 5-5 current trend neutral
Gold: .2-18.  current trend up
Silver: 5-27 current trend neutral
Copper 5-27 current trend neutral
Platinum 5-27 current trend up
Palladium 5-27  current trend up
Nickel  5-6 current trend down
Grain complex 5-27 current trend up 
Sugar 2-23 current trend down
Cotton `4-25 current trend down
Livestock 4-25 current trend down
Coffee 5-11 current trend down
Lumber  3-29 current trend down
Agg complex 5-2 current trend neutral
Oil :5-6. current trend neutral
Gasoline 5-16 current trend down
Natural Gas 5-27 current trend up

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 5-31 current trend up
Europe 5-31 current trend up
China: 5-31 current trend up
Brazil 5-4 current trend down
Japan 5-13 current trend down
India 3-29 current trend down
Russia 5-4 current trend down
Emerging Markets: .5-31.. current trend up
Total world markets 5-31 current trend up

Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 5-27 current trend down
Aussie Dollar 5-27 current trend up
Euro 5-13  current trend down
Brit Pd 5-27 current trend up

Jap Yen 4-26  current trend up 
Canadian Dollar 5-13 current trend down
Mexican Peso 5-27 current trend up
Brazilian Real 5-27 current trend up

Indian Rupe 5-16 current trend nuetral

Trend changes:

World stock markets: US, Europe, China, Emerging Markets, Total World markets all up

US Stock Market Trends
Mikey Short term neutral 5-27 12441
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
Mikey current trend opinion: 3-29
Mikey: 5-31 NYSE Current trend UP 12569
Mikey: NASDAQ 5-31 TREND UP 2835
IBD : MARKET IN CONFIRMED UPTREND 12569

US markets short term  technical trading indicators:

VIX (OB 10 - OS 40) 15.45 Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) .98
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) .67 10 day average .86
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (..34 to 2.5) .79  10 day ave .96
Mutial Fund  Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66)  1.17   
Williams %R 12 day -36.05 Weekly -23.28
Bulls 43  Bears 19.4  Bull/Bear ratio 2.21
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 6 Weekly 8 (1 low, 10 max) 14 -2
DJIA MACD -7.08 Rising/ Negative cross 5-9
Weekly MACD +343.03  Falling / Negative cross 5-16
NYSE New Highs 224(12/7 429)  New Lows (1-14 152 ) 10
NASDAQ New Highs 136 (12-7 352) New Lows (3-15 131) 45
Daily NYSE Advance-Decline +1567 NASDAQ  Advance-Decline +1010
Daily Mikey A/D line NYSE (5-31 33958)+33958
Daily Mikey A/D line NASDAQ (2-18 10095) +4998
5 day AD NYSE +5006 NASDAQ +3117 NYSE..(OB +4000 OS -4000) NYSE OB
 % above 200 day ave 72 %
Days to option expiration :13

DJI Moving Averages


5 day 12432 Rising/Price above
20 day 12568 Falling/ Price above
50 day 12451 Rising/Price above
90 day 12287 Rising/Price above
200 day 11611 Rising/Price above
20 week 12759 Rising/Price above
50 week 11390 Rising/ Price above
90 week 10916 Rising/Price above
200 week 10819 Flat/Price above

Comments:
5-2 Bin Laden killed Stocks, Metals and commodities all sell off
Mikey buys ERY@ 13.14
5-3 NYSE Net declines -907 NASDAQ -1042 day now in decline DJI masking decline
IBD changes to market under pressure. Silver nears 40 and Gold shows weakness. Russia (RSX) looks close to breaking down.  Aussie looks like silver 4 days ago.
5-4Brazil to downtrend, Russia to downtrend, China to Neutral, India to downtrend, Brazilian Real big down day under review. Aussie strong sell off. US and Europe weakening.  Silver is now down to its 50 day. 10 bucks off of its highs last week.
5-5 IBD Market in correction. Oil -9.00 and Gold -34.00 joined the commodity sell off and now everyone sees it. BRIC'S are all in a sell off except China which is all but there. Foreign bonds had a bad day with the first big uptick in the Dollar Index +1.14. Commodities index in downtrend Aussie,-.0159, and Euro -.0259 were the standoffs on the downside. The broad commodity index is now in a downtrend. Silver free falls to 34 today right to its 90 day average and just above a trend line drawn from its Sept lows.
5-6 jobs numbers show economy is growing.  Oversold rally today. Oil 98.08 changed to downtrend today. Mikey buys DXD @ 16.60
5-9 oversold rally continues. Margin on oil increased to 25% by CME for tomorrow trades. Commodities rally and dollar sells off. Traders still in the dark about Fed intentions
5-11 Decline resumes Dollar Index at 50 day ave. All commodities are in decline except Gold and Gasoline
5-12 Blog not posted unable to access
5-13 Dollar potential reversal up Brazil Real, British Pd, Euro, Loony, all downgraded to downtrends
Emerging markets, Japan, China markets downgraded to downtrend. Coffee downgraded to downtrend
International bonds downgraded to correcting. US market hanging on to 20 day average. Gasoline downgraded to correcting.
5-16 Gasoline tanks .14 enters downtrend NASDAQ enters downtrend, DJI breaks 20 day ave. All commodities in downtrend except Gold. Soros sells most of Gold holdings
5-17 3 days to options expiration and the 5 day  AD NYSE -4203 NASDAQ -4008  both are now oversold and the puts ran at .92 with heavy out premium of 1.12 today I would expect the crooks to rally into and probably out of expiration to waste the put buyers.
5-18 Put options killing rally
5-19 Ditto yesterday
5-20 Option expire Mikey buys VXZ 51.76
5-23 Dollar breaks out end of the world coming for Stocks a little late
5-24 Mikey calls DJI 12356 in downtrend
5-27 Dollar reverses down assets reverse up
5-31 IBD and Mikey current trend up


Notice how first the dollar fell then last week the commodities rallied, now the world markets turn up. It is so so controlled. That of course is the game now and that is what we have to work with. The 5 day is overbought with 5006 net advances. The last time that happened was on 4-26 or 4 days before the top. Put/ calls fell to a 3 week low of .67 would expect them to fall for a few more days. I do not believe this rally and I am looking to short this move probably in a week or so. Nat Gas closed above the 200 day average for the first time in 3 years. It appears to me as it is is forming a major long term bottom.

Natural Gas



Mikey

Pro's easing up on dollar selling

Why the Dollar's Blue Period May Be Ending

A lot of downward pressure on the dollar is easing off. Here's why — and what you should do.

Yes, today's GDP number was disappointing, and yes, so were the jobless claims. But increasingly, signs point to the end of dollar doldrums [.DXY 74.96 --- UNCH (0.01) ].

First up, of course, is the end of QE2, which is finally within sight. All those low interest rates have been good for stocks, but they have been bruising the dollar, partly by boosting investors' appetite for riskier, and higher-yielding, currencies.

"If this market perceives the end of QE2 as a risk-off event, that would probably have more of an effect than interest rates on the direction of the dollar going forward," says Alan Ruskin, global head of G10 FX strategy at Deutsche Bank. "The end of QE2 would be less of a headwind than the end of a tailwind for global risk appetite," and it would "demarcate a choppier risk and less USD negative environment."

Big investors are also displaying less bearishness on the dollar. Data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange for the week ending May 17 shows a big drop in dollar short positions among hedge funds — down $8 billion to $25.5 billion. That pretty much has to help the currency.

But wait — there is more. The effective federal funds rate, which determines the rate at which banks will lend to each other overnight, has been falling. There are various technical reasons behind the drop, but the result has been excess reserves at the Fed, which according to analysts at Barclays Capital, has put downward pressure on short-term interest rates — with predictable results for the dollar.

"We think that the sharp fall in US short-term rates along with the FOMC's stubbornly dovish stance was behind the USD weakness in April," they wrote in a research note.

Earlier this week, however, the Fed announced that it would allow government-supported entities like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to borrow Treasurys from the Fed when the time comes to withdraw cash from the financial system. Details are still being worked out, but the analysts at Barclays believe this could lead to higher fed funds rates — and thus less downward pressure on interest rates and the dollar.

"Decreases in excess reserves at the Fed have tended to be associated with USD appreciation since late 2008," though somewhat less so in the past year, the Barclays analysts wrote. "The move in effective fed funds rate tends to lead the move in 3M US LIBOR, one of the key drivers of USD, according to our analysis."

OK, Fed policy can be hard to follow. But the bottom line is simple: between QE2, hedge fund sentiment, and some technical changes in Fed policy, the downward pressure on the dollar is decidedly easing.

Dollar weakness flips market and commodities back up

Closing Prices


US Stocks
DJIA 12441.58 +38.82 SPX 1331.10 +5.41 NASDAQ2796.86 +13.94
MDY 179.86 +1.00 Russell 2000 836.26 +5.39 DJT 5408.58
DJU 433.54 +.70
US bonds and interest rates
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1017%  2 yr .4764% 10 yr 3.07 uc 30 yr 4.24 +.01
IEF(US10 yr) 96.44 -.01 TLT (USLT)96.50 -.01 
MUB (NatlMuni)103.55 +.25  CalMuni (NCA 8.88 +.09
HYG (High Yield) 92.30 +.43 PFF(Preferred) 40.07 +.06
BND (Total Bond Mkt)81.59 +.03
Commodities
Commodities Indexes (DBC)30.09 +.18 (USCI)67.15 +.29  
Gold 1536.30 +13.50 Silver 37.86 +.53 Copper 4.18 +.07
Platinum 1800 +21.90 Nickel (JJN)33.71 +.18
Oil 100.59 +.36 RBOB 3.09 +.06 Nat Gas 4.51 +.15
Grains (JJG)55.29 +.19 Livestock (COW) 27.95 +.24
Cotton (BAL) 84.77 +.15 Agg complex(JJA) 64.18 +.06
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Aussie 1.0724 +.0054 Euro 1.4239 +.0154  Pound 1.6372 +.0090
Yen 1.2207 +.0076 Can$ 1.0178 +.0015 USD Index 75.02 -.02
World Debt markets
BWX(Intl Treas) 61.64 +.63 PCY(EmerMkt) 29.96 uc
IBND(Intl Corp) 34.69 +.36

All Markets Current Trends

World debt markets
US Bonds: 4-15 current trend up

US Natl Muni Markets: : 2-18 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 5-27 current trend up
Intl Corp Bonds 5-27 current trend up\
Emerging Markets Debt: ..3-24 current trend up weakening

Commodities
Commodity index (Broad based) 5-5 current trend nuetral
Gold: .2-18.  current trend up
Silver: 5-27 current trend neutral
Copper 5-27 current trend neutral
Platinum 5-27 current trend up
Palladium 5-27  current trend up
Nickel  5-6 current trend down
Grain complex 5-27 current trend up 
Sugar 2-23 current trend down
Cotton `4-25 current trend down
Livestock 4-25 current trend down
Coffee 5-11 current trend down
Lumber  3-29 current trend down
Agg complex 5-2 current trend neutral
Oil :5-6. current trend down
Gasoline 5-16 current trend down
Natural Gas 5-27 current trend up

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 5-27 current trend neutral
Europe 5-27 current trend neutral
China: 5-13  current trend neutral
Brazil 5-4 current trend down
Japan 5-13 current trend down
India 3-29 current trend down
Russia 5-4 current trend down
Emerging Markets: .5-27.. current trend neutral
Total world markets 5-27 current trend neutral
Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 5-27 current trend down
Aussie Dollar 5-27 current trend up
Euro 5-13  current trend down
Brit Pd 5-27 current trend up

Jap Yen 4-26  current trend up 
Canadian Dollar 5-13 current trend down
Mexican Peso 5-27 current trend up
Brazilian Real 5-27 current trend up

Indian Rupe 5-16 current trend nuetral

US Stock Market Trends
Mikey Short term neutral 5-27 12441
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
Mikey current trend opinion: 3-29 Current trend up 12279 5-13 correcting
Mikey: 5-27  Current trend neutral 12441 Mikey: NASDAQ 5-27 nuetral 2796
IBD : 5-5 market in correction 12584

US markets short term  technical trading indicators:

VIX (OB 10 - OS 40) 15.98  Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) .96
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) .79 10 day average .88
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (..34 to 2.5) .85  10 day ave .97
Mutial Fund  Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66)  1.17   
Williams %R 12 day -67.71 Weekly -32.90
Bulls 43  Bears 19.4  Bull/Bear ratio 2.21
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 3 Weekly 7 (1 low, 10 max) 10 -4
DJIA MACD -14.95  Falling/ Negative cross 5-9
Weekly MACD +354.02 Falling / Negative cross 5-16
NYSE New Highs 117 (12/7 429)  New Lows (1-14 152 ) 9
NASDAQ New Highs 87 (12-7 352) New Lows (3-15 131) 32
Daily NYSE Advance-Decline +1675 NASDAQ  Advance-Decline +703
Daily Mikey A/D line NYSE (5-10 33618)+32391
Daily Mikey A/D line NASDAQ (2-18 10095) +3988
5 day AD NYSE +1424 NASDAQ +477 NYSE..(OB +4000 OS -4000)
 % above 200 day ave 68 %
Days to option expiration :15
Comments:
5-2 Bin Laden killed Stocks, Metals and commodities all sell off
Mikey buys ERY@ 13.14
5-3 NYSE Net declines -907 NASDAQ -1042 day now in decline DJI masking decline
IBD changes to market under pressure. Silver nears 40 and Gold shows weakness. Russia (RSX) looks close to breaking down.  Aussie looks like silver 4 days ago.
5-4 Commodity index downgraded to neutral, Brazil to downtrend, Russia to downtrend, China to Neutral, India to downtrend, Brazilian Real big down day under review. Aussie strong sell off. US and Europe weakening.  Silver is now down to its 50 day. 10 bucks off of its highs last week.
5-5 IBD Market in correction. Oil -9.00 and Gold -34.00 joined the commodity sell off and now everyone sees it. BRIC'S are all in a sell off except China which is all but there. Foreign bonds had a bad day with the first big uptick in the Dollar Index +1.14. Commodities index in downtrend Aussie,-.0159, and Euro -.0259 were the standoffs on the downside. The broad commodity index is now in a downtrend. Silver free falls to 34 today right to its 90 day average and just above a trend line drawn from its Sept lows.
5-6 jobs numbers show economy is growing.  Oversold rally today. Oil 98.08 changed to downtrend today. Mikey buys DXD @ 16.60
5-9 oversold rally continues. Margin on oil increased to 25% by CME for tomorrow trades. Commodities rally and dollar sells off. Traders still in the dark about Fed intentions
5-11 Decline resumes Dollar Index at 50 day ave. All commodities are in decline except Gold and Gasoline
5-12 Blog not posted unable to access
5-13 Dollar potential reversal up Brazil Real, British Pd, Euro, Loony, all downgraded to downtrends
Emerging markets, Japan, China markets downgraded to downtrend. Coffee downgraded to downtrend
International bonds downgraded to correcting. US market hanging on to 20 day average. Gasoline downgraded to correcting.
5-16 Gasoline tanks .14 enters downtrend NASDAQ enters downtrend, DJI breaks 20 day ave. All commodities in downtrend except Gold. Soros sells most of Gold holdings
5-17 3 days to options expiration and the 5 day  AD NYSE -4203 NASDAQ -4008  both are now oversold and the puts ran at .92 with heavy out premium of 1.12 today I would expect the crooks to rally into and probably out of expiration to waste the put buyers.
5-18 Put options killing rally
5-19 Ditto yesterday
5-20 Option expire Mikey buys VXZ 51.76
5-23 Dollar breaks out end of the world coming for Stocks a little late
5-24 Mikey calls DJI 12356 in downtrend
5-27 Dollar reverses down assets reverse up

DJI Moving Averages

5 day 12395 Rising/Price above
20 day 12580 Rising/ Price below
50 day 12436  Rising/Price above
90 day 12272 Rising/Price above
200 day 11589 Rising/Price above
20 week 12759 Rising/Price above
50 week 11390 Rising/ Price above
90 week 10916 Rising/Price above
200 week 10819 Flat/Price above


Trend changes:
Stocks US. Europe. China, NASDAQ to neutral from down
Agg complex, Silver, Copper to neutral from down
Platinum and Palladium to up from down
Nat Gas to up from down
Aussie to up from neutral
Brit Pd, Yen. Real to up from down
Rupee to neutral from down
International bonds and international treasuries  from down to up
Dollar to down from up

The dollar reversed an up trend and with it most of the assets market reversed back up. This has nothing to do with supply it is strictly investment money being moved around at at the direction of the central bankers. The DJI will probably turn up next week along with oil and gas prices. I still think this is a part of the topping process and I think that this rally in stocks and commodities will not last long.

Mikey

DJI sitting just below 50 day place your bets

Closing Prices


US Stocks
DJIA 12402.76 +8.10 SPX 1325.69 +5.22 NASDAQ 2782.92 21.54
MDY 179.25 +1.99 Russell 2000 830.87 +10.00  DJT 5406.12 +11.85
DJU 432.84 -.61
US bonds and interest rates
US Gov rates: 6 mo .0992%  2 yr .4921% 10 yr 3.07 30 yr 4.23
IEF(US10 yr) 96.46 +.54  TLT (USLT)96.51 +.82
MUB (NatlMuni)103.30 +.17 CalMuni (NCA 8.79 +.05
HYG (High Yield) 91.87 -.08 PFF(Preferred) 40.01 -.03
BND (Total Bond Mkt)61.55 +.10
Commodities
Commodities Indexes (DBC)29.91 +.11 (USCI)66.86 -.01  
Gold 1522.80 -4.00 Silver 37.33 -.31 Copper 4.11 +.01
Platinum 1778.80 -3.00 Nickel (JJN) 33.53 -.43  
Oil 100.23 -.1.07  RBOB 3.04 +.03 Nat Gas 4.36 -.05
Grains (JJG)55.10 +.83 Livestock (COW) 27.65 -.21
Cotton (BAL) 83.82 -2.29 Agg complex(JJA) 64.12 +.68
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Aussie 106.70 +.0108 Euro 1.4085 +.0111 Pound 1.6282 +.0052 
Yen 1.2131 +.0089 Can$ 1.0165 -.0007  USD Index 75.63 -.43
World Debt markets
BWX(Intl Treas) 61.02 +.21 PCY(EmerMkt) 2696 -.08
IBND(Intl Corp) 34.32 +.15
All Markets Current Trends

World debt markets
US Bonds: 4-15 current trend up

US Natl Muni Markets: : 2-18 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 5-23 current trend down
Intl Corp Bonds 5-23 current trend down
Emerging Markets Debt: ..3-24 current trend up weakening

Commodities
Commodity index (Broad based) 5-5 current trend down
Gold: .2-18.  current trend up
Silver: 5-11  current trend down
Copper 4-18 current trend down
Platinum 5-11 current trend down
Palladium 5-5 current trend down
Nickel  5-6 current trend down
Grain complex 4-28 current trend down 
Sugar 2-23 current trend down
Cotton `4-25 current trend down
Livestock 4-25 current trend down
Coffee 5-11 current trend down
Lumber  3-29 current trend down
Agg complex 5-2 current trend down
Oil :5-6. current trend down
Gasoline 5-16 current trend down
Natural Gas 5-11 current trend down

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 5-24 current trend down
Europe 5-23 current trend down
China: 5-13  current trend down
Brazil 5-4 current trend down
Japan 5-13 current trend down
India 3-29 current trend down
Russia 5-4 current trend down
Emerging Markets: .5-13.. current trend down
Total world markets 5-23 current trend down

Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 5-23 current trend up
Aussie Dollar 5-23 current trend neutral
Euro 5-13  current trend down
Brit Pd 5-13 current trend down

Jap Yen 4-26  current trend up 
Canadian Dollar 5-13 current trend down
Mexican Peso 5-23 current trend neutral
Brazilian Real 5-12 current trend down

Indian Rupe 5-16 current trend down

US Stock Market Trends
Mikey Short term up 3-29 12279
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
Mikey current trend opinion: 3-29 Current trend up 12279 5-13 correcting
Mikey: 5-24  Current trend down 12356
Mikey: NASDAQ 5-16 Downtrend 2782.31
IBD : 5-5 market in correction 12584

US markets short term  technical trading indicators:

VIX (OB 10 - OS 40) 16.09 Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) .96
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) .76 10 day average .89
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (..34 to 2.5) .92  10 day ave .98
Mutial Fund  Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66)  1.17   
Williams %R 12 day -78.74  Weekly -35.71
Bulls 43  Bears 19.4  Bull/Bear ratio 2.21
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 2 Weekly 6 (1 low, 10 max) 7, --5
DJIA MACD -11.76  Falling/ Negative cross 5-9
Weekly MACD +351.07 Falling / Negative cross 5-16
NYSE New Highs 82(12/7 429)  New Lows (1-14 152 ) 31
NASDAQ New Highs 71(12-7 352) New Lows (3-15 131) 54
Daily NYSE Advance-Decline +1308 NASDAQ  Advance-Decline +1118
Daily Mikey A/D line NYSE (5-10 33618)+30967
Daily Mikey A/D line NASDAQ (2-18 10095) +3285
5 day AD NYSE -695 NASDAQ --1100 NYSE..(OB +4000 OS -4000)
 % above 200 day ave 66 %
Days to option expiration :17

Comments:
5-2 Bin Laden killed Stocks, Metals and commodities all sell off
Mikey buys ERY@ 13.14
5-3 NYSE Net declines -907 NASDAQ -1042 day now in decline DJI masking decline
IBD changes to market under pressure. Silver nears 40 and Gold shows weakness. Russia (RSX) looks close to breaking down.  Aussie looks like silver 4 days ago.
5-4 Commodity index downgraded to neutral, Brazil to downtrend, Russia to downtrend, China to Neutral, India to downtrend, Brazilian Real big down day under review. Aussie strong sell off. US and Europe weakening.  Silver is now down to its 50 day. 10 bucks off of its highs last week.
5-5 IBD Market in correction. Oil -9.00 and Gold -34.00 joined the commodity sell off and now everyone sees it. BRIC'S are all in a sell off except China which is all but there. Foreign bonds had a bad day with the first big uptick in the Dollar Index +1.14. Commodities index in downtrend Aussie,-.0159, and Euro -.0259 were the standoffs on the downside. The broad commodity index is now in a downtrend. Silver free falls to 34 today right to its 90 day average and just above a trend line drawn from its Sept lows.
5-6 jobs numbers show economy is growing.  Oversold rally today. Oil 98.08 changed to downtrend today. Mikey buys DXD @ 16.60
5-9 oversold rally continues. Margin on oil increased to 25% by CME for tomorrow trades. Commodities rally and dollar sells off. Traders still in the dark about Fed intentions
5-11 Decline resumes Dollar Index at 50 day ave. All commodities are in decline except Gold and Gasoline
5-12 Blog not posted unable to access
5-13 Dollar potential reversal up Brazil Real, British Pd, Euro, Loony, all downgraded to downtrends
Emerging markets, Japan, China markets downgraded to downtrend. Coffee downgraded to downtrend
International bonds downgraded to correcting. US market hanging on to 20 day average. Gasoline downgraded to correcting.
5-16 Gasoline tanks .14 enters downtrend NASDAQ enters downtrend, DJI breaks 20 day ave. All commodities in downtrend except Gold. Soros sells most of Gold holdings
5-17 3 days to options expiration and the 5 day  AD NYSE -4203 NASDAQ -4008  both are now oversold and the puts ran at .92 with heavy out premium of 1.12 today I would expect the crooks to rally into and probably out of expiration to waste the put buyers.
5-18 Put options killing rally
5-19 Ditto yesterday
5-20 Option expire Mikey buys VXZ 51.76
5-23 Dollar breaks out end of the world coming for Stocks a little late
5-24 Mikey calls DJI 12356 in downtrend

DJI Moving Averages

5 day 12409 Falling/Price below
20 day 12598 Rising/ Price below
50 day 12423 Rising/Price below
90 day 12272 Rising/Price above
200 day 11589 Rising/Price above
20 week 12759 Rising/Price above
50 week 11390 Rising/ Price above
90 week 10916 Rising/Price above
200 week 10819 Flat/Price above


Traders see the DJI just below the 50 day and then the dollar starts to sell off and the commodities start to rally. The same old same old or is it going to break this time. Very cute action here.

Mikey

Commodity snap back

Closing Prices


US Stocks
DJIA 12394.46 +38.45 SPX 1320.47 +4.19 NASDAQ 2761.38 +15.22 
MDY 176.95 +.88 Russell 2000 820.97 +10.54 DJT 5394.27 +46.60
DJU 433.45 -.70
US bonds and interest rates
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1043%  2 yr .5354% 10 yr 3.13 30 yr 4.26 +.03
IEF(US10 yr) 95.92 +.01 TLT (USLT)95.48 -.66
MUB (NatlMuni)103.12 -.41  CalMuni (NCA 8.74 +.04
HYG (High Yield) 91.95 uc PFF(Preferred) 40.04 +.01
BND (Total Bond Mkt)81.47 +.05
Commodities
Commodities Indexes (DBC)29.60 +.33 (USCI) 66.85 +1.20
Gold 1526.80 +10.80 Silver 37.64 +1.21 Copper 4.10 +.12
Platinum 1781.80 +15.80 Nickel (JJN) 33.97 +.57
Oil 101.30 RBOB 3.01 +.07 Nat Gas 4.41 +.03
Grains (JJG)54.22 +.56 Livestock (COW) 27.86 +.21
Cotton (BAL) 86.11 -.10 Agg complex(JJA) 63.44 +.73
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Aussie 1.0562 -.24 Euro 1.4032 -.22 Pound 1.6170 +.0088
Yen 1.2029 -.20  Can$ 1.0169 -.0019 USD Index 76.03 -.17
World Debt markets
BWX(Intl Treas) 60.75 -.04 PCY(EmerMkt) 27.04 +.02
IBND(Intl Corp) 4.17 -.07
All Markets Current Trends

World debt markets
US Bonds: 4-15 current trend up

US Natl Muni Markets: : 2-18 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 5-23 current trend down
Intl Corp Bonds 5-23 current trend down
Emerging Markets Debt: ..3-24 current trend up weakening

Commodities
Commodity index (Broad based) 5-5 current trend down
Gold: .2-18.  current trend up
Silver: 5-11  current trend down
Copper 4-18 current trend down
Platinum 5-11 current trend down
Palladium 5-5 current trend down
Nickel  5-6 current trend down
Grain complex 4-28 current trend down 
Sugar 2-23 current trend down
Cotton `4-25 current trend down
Livestock 4-25 current trend down
Coffee 5-11 current trend down
Lumber  3-29 current trend down
Agg complex 5-2 current trend down
Oil :5-6. current trend down
Gasoline 5-16 current trend down
Natural Gas 5-11 current trend down

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 5-24 current trend down
Europe 5-23 current trend down
China: 5-13  current trend down
Brazil 5-4 current trend down
Japan 5-13 current trend down
India 3-29 current trend down
Russia 5-4 current trend down
Emerging Markets: .5-13.. current trend down
Total world markets 5-23 current trend down

Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 5-23 current trend up
Aussie Dollar 5-23 current trend neutral
Euro 5-13  current trend down
Brit Pd 5-13 current trend down

Jap Yen 4-26  current trend up 
Canadian Dollar 5-13 current trend down
Mexican Peso 5-23 current trend neutral
Brazilian Real 5-12 current trend down

Indian Rupe 5-16 current trend down

US Stock Market Trends
Mikey Short term up 3-29 12279
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
Mikey current trend opinion: 3-29 Current trend up 12279 5-13 correcting
Mikey: 5-24  Current trend down 12356
Mikey: NASDAQ 5-16 Downtrend 2782.31
IBD : 5-5 market in correction 12584

US markets short term  technical trading indicators:

VIX (OB 10 - OS 40) 17.07 Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) .92
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) .75 10 day average .89
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (..34 to 2.5) 1.02  10 day ave .96
Mutial Fund  Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66)  1.17   
Williams %R 12 day -94.13 Weekly -39.36
Bulls 43  Bears 19.4  Bull/Bear ratio 2.21
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 1 Weekly 6 (1 low, 10 max) 7, --5
DJIA MACD -17.86 Falling/ Negative cross 5-9
Weekly MACD +347.22 Falling / Negative cross 5-16
NYSE New Highs 64(12/7 429)  New Lows (1-14 152 ) 36
NASDAQ New Highs 46(12-7 352) New Lows (3-15 131) 72
Daily NYSE Advance-Decline +930 NASDAQ  Advance-Decline +837
Daily Mikey A/D line NYSE (5-10 33618)+29659
Daily Mikey A/D line NASDAQ (2-18 10095) +2167
5 day AD NYSE -1449 NASDAQ --2204 NYSE..(OB +4000 OS -4000)
 % above 200 day ave 64 %
Days to option expiration :18
Comments:
5-2 Bin Laden killed Stocks, Metals and commodities all sell off
Mikey buys ERY@ 13.14
5-3 NYSE Net declines -907 NASDAQ -1042 day now in decline DJI masking decline
IBD changes to market under pressure. Silver nears 40 and Gold shows weakness. Russia (RSX) looks close to breaking down.  Aussie looks like silver 4 days ago.
5-4 Commodity index downgraded to neutral, Brazil to downtrend, Russia to downtrend, China to Neutral, India to downtrend, Brazilian Real big down day under review. Aussie strong sell off. US and Europe weakening.  Silver is now down to its 50 day. 10 bucks off of its highs last week.
5-5 IBD Market in correction. Oil -9.00 and Gold -34.00 joined the commodity sell off and now everyone sees it. BRIC'S are all in a sell off except China which is all but there. Foreign bonds had a bad day with the first big uptick in the Dollar Index +1.14. Commodities index in downtrend Aussie,-.0159, and Euro -.0259 were the standoffs on the downside. The broad commodity index is now in a downtrend. Silver free falls to 34 today right to its 90 day average and just above a trend line drawn from its Sept lows.
5-6 jobs numbers show economy is growing.  Oversold rally today. Oil 98.08 changed to downtrend today. Mikey buys DXD @ 16.60
5-9 oversold rally continues. Margin on oil increased to 25% by CME for tomorrow trades. Commodities rally and dollar sells off. Traders still in the dark about Fed intentions
5-11 Decline resumes Dollar Index at 50 day ave. All commodities are in decline except Gold and Gasoline
5-12 Blog not posted unable to access
5-13 Dollar potential reversal up Brazil Real, British Pd, Euro, Loony, all downgraded to downtrends
Emerging markets, Japan, China markets downgraded to downtrend. Coffee downgraded to downtrend
International bonds downgraded to correcting. US market hanging on to 20 day average. Gasoline downgraded to correcting.
5-16 Gasoline tanks .14 enters downtrend NASDAQ enters downtrend, DJI breaks 20 day ave. All commodities in downtrend except Gold. Soros sells most of Gold holdings
5-17 3 days to options expiration and the 5 day  AD NYSE -4203 NASDAQ -4008  both are now oversold and the puts ran at .92 with heavy out premium of 1.12 today I would expect the crooks to rally into and probably out of expiration to waste the put buyers.
5-18 Put options killing rally
5-19 Ditto yesterday
5-20 Option expire Mikey buys VXZ 51.76
5-23 Dollar breaks out end of the world coming for Stocks a little late
5-24 Mikey calls DJI 12356 in downtrend

DJI Moving Averages

5 day 12392 Falling/Price below
20 day 12594 Falling/ Price below
50 day 12421 Rising/Price below
90 day 12271 Rising/Price above
200 day 11589 Rising/Price above
20 week 12759 Rising/Price above
50 week 11390 Rising/ Price above
90 week 10916 Rising/Price above
200 week 10819 Flat/Price above

Mikey

Stock market reverses trend. Mikey calls DJI (12356) in a downtrend

Closing Prices


US Stocks
DJIA 12356.21 -25.05 SPX 1316.28 NASDAQ 2746.16 -12.74
MDY 176.33 -.08 Russell 2000 810.33 -3.71 DJT 5347.67 -33.97 DJU 434.15 -.38
US bonds and interest rates
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1017%  2 yr .5354% 10 yr 3.09 -.01 30 yr 4.23 -.02
IEF(US10 yr) 95.92+.11 TLT (USLT)96.11+.33
MUB (NatlMuni)103.31+.27 CalMuni (NCA 8.75 -.08
HYG (High Yield) 91.95 -.14  PFF(Preferred) 40.03 uc
BND (Total Bond Mkt)81.42 +.05
Commodities
Commodities Indexes (DBC)28.88 -.47 (USCI) 65.19 -1.18
Gold 1515.90 +6.50 Silver 34.91 -.17 Copper 3.98 -.14
Platinum 1755.90 -13.50 Nickel (JJN) 32.63 -1.66
Oil 97.70 -1.50 RBOB 2.94 +.01 Nat Gas 4.38 +.15
Grains (JJG)54.54 -.33 Livestock (COW) 27.65 -.88
Cotton (BAL) 85.63 -1.08 Agg complex(JJA) 63.19 -.53
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Aussie 1.0582 +.0046 Euro 1.4049 +.0055 Pound 1.6082 +.0075
Yen 1.2041 +.07 Can$ 1.0181 +.04 USD Index 76.20 -.23
World Debt markets
BWX(Intl Treas) 60.79 +.14  PCY(Emerging Mkt) 26.96 -.05
IBND(Intl Corp Bond) 34.25 -.10

All Markets Current Trends

World debt markets
US Bonds: 4-15 current trend up

US Natl Muni Markets: : 2-18 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 5-23 current trend down
Intl Corp Bonds 5-23 current trend down
Emerging Markets Debt: ..3-24 current trend up weakening

Commodities
Commodity index (Broad based) 5-5 current trend down
Gold: .2-18.  current trend up
Silver: 5-11  current trend down
Copper 4-18 current trend down
Platinum 5-11 current trend down
Palladium 5-5 current trend down
Nickel  5-6 current trend down
Grain complex 4-28 current trend down 
Sugar 2-23 current trend down
Cotton `4-25 current trend down
Livestock 4-25 current trend down
Coffee 5-11 current trend down
Lumber  3-29 current trend down
Agg complex 5-2 current trend down
Oil :5-6. current trend down
Gasoline 5-16 current trend down
Natural Gas 5-11 current trend down

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 5-24 current trend down
Europe 5-23 current trend down
China: 5-13  current trend down
Brazil 5-4 current trend down
Japan 5-13 current trend down
India 3-29 current trend down
Russia 5-4 current trend down
Emerging Markets: .5-13.. current trend down
Total world markets 5-23 current trend down

Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 5-23 current trend up
Aussie Dollar 5-23 current trend neutral
Euro 5-13  current trend down
Brit Pd 5-13 current trend down

Jap Yen 4-26  current trend up 
Canadian Dollar 5-13 current trend down
Mexican Peso 5-23 current trend neutral
Brazilian Real 5-12 current trend down

Indian Rupe 5-16 current trend down

US Stock Market Trends
Mikey Short term up 3-29 12279
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
Mikey current trend opinion: 3-29 Current trend up 12279 5-13 correcting
Mikey: 5-24  Current trend down 12356
Mikey: NASDAQ 5-16 Downtrend 2782.31
IBD : 5-5 market in correction 12584

US markets short term  technical trading indicators:

VIX (OB 10 - OS 40) 17.82 Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) .89
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) .89 10 day average .91
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (..34 to 2.5) 1.02  10 day ave .96
Mutial Fund  Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66)  1.17   
Williams %R 12 day --94.58 Weekly -39.23
Bulls 45.6  Bears 19.6  Bull/Bear ratio 2.32
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 1 Weekly 6 (1 low, 10 max) 7, --5
DJIA MACD +7.56 Falling/ Negative cross 5-9
Weekly MACD +347.36  Falling / Negative cross 5-16
NYSE New Highs 79(12/7 429)  New Lows (1-14 152 ) 36
NASDAQ New Highs 48 (12-7 352) New Lows (3-15 131) 81
Daily NYSE Advance-Decline -223 NASDAQ  Advance-Decline -551
Daily Mikey A/D line NYSE (5-10 33618)+28729
Daily Mikey A/D line NASDAQ (2-18 10095) +1330
5 day AD NYSE -686 NASDAQ -1794 NYSE..(OB +4000 OS -4000)
 % above 200 day ave 62 %
Days to option expiration :19

Comments:
5-2 Bin Laden killed Stocks, Metals and commodities all sell off
Mikey buys ERY@ 13.14
5-3 NYSE Net declines -907 NASDAQ -1042 day now in decline DJI masking decline
IBD changes to market under pressure. Silver nears 40 and Gold shows weakness. Russia (RSX) looks close to breaking down.  Aussie looks like silver 4 days ago.
5-4 Commodity index downgraded to neutral, Brazil to downtrend, Russia to downtrend, China to Neutral, India to downtrend, Brazilian Real big down day under review. Aussie strong sell off. US and Europe weakening.  Silver is now down to its 50 day. 10 bucks off of its highs last week.
5-5 IBD Market in correction. Oil -9.00 and Gold -34.00 joined the commodity sell off and now everyone sees it. BRIC'S are all in a sell off except China which is all but there. Foreign bonds had a bad day with the first big uptick in the Dollar Index +1.14. Commodities index in downtrend Aussie,-.0159, and Euro -.0259 were the standoffs on the downside. The broad commodity index is now in a downtrend. Silver free falls to 34 today right to its 90 day average and just above a trend line drawn from its Sept lows.
5-6 jobs numbers show economy is growing.  Oversold rally today. Oil 98.08 changed to downtrend today. Mikey buys DXD @ 16.60
5-9 oversold rally continues. Margin on oil increased to 25% by CME for tomorrow trades. Commodities rally and dollar sells off. Traders still in the dark about Fed intentions
5-11 Decline resumes Dollar Index at 50 day ave. All commodities are in decline except Gold and Gasoline
5-12 Blog not posted unable to access
5-13 Dollar potential reversal up Brazil Real, British Pd, Euro, Loony, all downgraded to downtrends
Emerging markets, Japan, China markets downgraded to downtrend. Coffee downgraded to downtrend
International bonds downgraded to correcting. US market hanging on to 20 day average. Gasoline downgraded to correcting.
5-16 Gasoline tanks .14 enters downtrend NASDAQ enters downtrend, DJI breaks 20 day ave. All commodities in downtrend except Gold. Soros sells most of Gold holdings
5-17 3 days to options expiration and the 5 day  AD NYSE -4203 NASDAQ -4008  both are now oversold and the puts ran at .92 with heavy out premium of 1.12 today I would expect the crooks to rally into and probably out of expiration to waste the put buyers.
5-18 Put options killing rally
5-19 Ditto yesterday
5-20 Option expire Mikey buys VXZ 51.76
5-23 Dollar breaks out end of the world coming for Stocks a little late
5-24 Mikey calls DJI 12356 in downtrend

DJI Moving Averages

5 day 12452 Falling/Price below
20 day 12631  Falling/ Price below
50 day 12396  Rising/Price below
90 day 12259 Rising/Price above
200 day 11570 Rising/Price above
20 week 12224 Rising/Price above
50 week 11347 Rising/ Price above
90 week 10883 Rising/Price above
200 week 10283 Flat/Price above

I think they are ready to tip their hand and let this thing fall. They are blaming it on Europe and the EURO debt problems. If that is true then why is the Aussie selling off along with every other currency vs the dollar. The reason is that the world economy is falling faster than the economy in the US. The world has been fighting the commodity inflation problem at the expense of grow. Every time I have seen this happen the commodities and the \market get drilled. The dollar will continue to get stronger because the world is going to be very weak. The US economy on a relative basis will be stronger and the international corporations that have been making all of their money overseas will get nailed bringing the stock market down.

Gold which is at nearing its highs will follow the market down  as downside momentum picks up steam.

Mikey