Economy falls, Interest rates fall, Market rallies? This is getting ridiculous

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 12810.54 +47.23 SPX 1363.61 +3.13 NASDAQ 2873.54 +1.01
Russell 2000 885.29 +3.74 DJT 5514.87 +4.81 DJU429.06 +.64
US bonds and interest rates
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1017 %  2 yr .6013% 10 yr 3.28 -.03 30 yr 4.39 -.02
IEF(US10 yr) 94.33 +.05 TLT (US LT) 93.99 +.39
MUB (LT Natl Muni)101.89 +.20 Calif Muni (NCA) 8.60 +.12
HYG (High Yield) 92.90 +.27 PFF(Preferred) 40.04 +.085
BND (Total Bond Mkt) 80.85 uc
Commodities
Commodities Index (DBC) 31.90+.33
Gold 1556.40 +25.20 Silver 48.58 +1.06 Copper 4.16 -.08
Platinum 1865.50 +25.60 Lead (LD)62.15 -.78 Nickel (JJN)38.62 -.77
Oil 113.93 +1.07 RBOB 3.40 -.02 Nat Gas 4.70 +.13
Grains (JJG) 55.13 +1.79 Livestock (COW) 30.43 -.18
Cotton (BAL)88.00 +4.18 Agg complex(JJA) 64.90 +1.79  
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Aussie 1.1010 +.0043 Euro 1.4747 -.18 Pound 1.6602 +.0067
Yen 1.2170 +.0061 Can$ 1.0511 +.0051 USD Index 73.10 -.20
World Debt markets
BWX(Intl Treas) 62.75 +.24 PCY(Emerging Mkt) 26.71 +.08
IBND(Intl Corp Bond)35.66 +.25
All Markets Current Trends

World debt markets
US Bonds: 4-15 current trend up

US Natl Muni Markets: : 2-18 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 1-24 current trend up
Intl Corp Bonds 1-24
Emerging Markets Debt: ..3-24 current trend up

Commodities
Gold: .2-18.  current trend up
Silver: .2-08  current trend up
Copper 4-18 current trend down
Platinum 4-27 current trend up
Lead 4-28 current trend down
Nickel  4-28 current trend neutral
Grain complex 4-28 Neutral 
Sugar 2-23 current trend down
Cotton `4-25 current trend down
Livestock 4-25 current trend down
Coffee 6-11-10 current trend up
Lumber  3-29 current trend down
Agg complex 4-28 Neutral
Oil :2-24. current trend up
Gasoline 10-1-10 current trend up
Natural Gas 4-21 current trend up

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 3-25 current trend up
Europe 3-29 current trend up
China: .3-24 . current trend up
Brazil 3-31 current trend up
Japan 3-11 current trend down
India 3-29 current trend up
Russia 4-25 neutral
Emerging Markets: .3-24.. current trend up
Total world markets 3-29 current trend up

Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 1-25 current trend down
Aussie Dollar 3-24 current trend up
Euro 1-28 current trend up

Brit Pd 1-31 current trend up

Jap Yen 4-26  current trend up 
Canadian Dollar 9-13-10 current trend up

Mexican Peso 9-22-10 current trend up
Brazilian Real 3-7 current trend up
Indian Rupe 2-22 current trend up

US Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term up 3-29 12279
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
Mikey current trend opinion: 3-29 Current trend up 12279
Mikey: 4-28 12763 Caution advisory..no long positions
IBD : 4-20 Market resumes uptrend


US markets short term  technical trading indicators:

VIX (OB 10 - OS 40) 14.75
Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) 1.01
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) .82 10 day average .80
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (..34 to 2.5)  .69   10 day ave .73
Mutial Fund  Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66)  1.17   
Williams %R 12 day -2.99weekly -1.01
Bulls 54.3   Bears 18.5  Bull/Bear ratio 2.93
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 10 Weekly 10 (1 low, 10 max)20, -0
DJIA MACD +142.25 Rising/ positive cross 4-21
Weekly MACD +392.80  Positive cross 4-21
NYSE New Highs 361 (12/7 429)  New Lows 12
NASDAQ New Highs 198 (12-7 352) New Lows 20
Daily NYSE Advance-Decline +925  NASDAQ Advance-Decline +251
Daily Mikey A/D line NYSE (4-29 32806)+32806   NASDAQ (2-18 10095) +8306
5 day AD NYSE +3600 NASDAQ +1712
NYSE % above 200 day ave  77%
Days to option expiration: 15

Comments:
3-24 Continuation rally out of expiration
3-25 Market rallies back to break down. Mikey is OB at 89. Put/Call ratio .84 and .85 on 10 day neutral
3-28 P/C .61 10 day .82 Mikey rates trend Neutral
3-29 IBD and Mikey issue short term uptrend signals
4-5 Fed signals possible end to easing
4-6 Long bonds sell signal
4-6 Bullish advisers drop to 15.7 indicating capitulation
4-7 Oil tops 110
4-8 Commodities take a hit
4-11 IBD Market under pressure
4-15 Options expire
4-18 DJI closes at 50
Dollar rallies on S&P Downgrade
4-20 Rally back to highs as dollar sells off
4-21 UNG enters an uptrend bought@ 11.27.
Second buy added to ZSL @ 15.40 . 
4-25 Jap Yen moves from negative to Neutral
Cotton and Livestock join Copper in a downtrend from neutral
Metal stocks weak as Gold and silver hit new highs
4-26 Yen in uptrend, S&P downgrades Yen
4-27 Fed statement QE2 to end will support economy. Players take market as riskless trade.
Fed says economy growing but lower than expected unemployment still a problem, overseas sales slowing.
4-28 weakness in commodity rank and file spreading Corn -3.24%, Agg complex -3.05% , Lead -1.66%
Indicator off the charts overbought indicats almost no fear.
Mikey issues market overbought advisory...caution
4-29 Bonds and stocks moving up together that is like the wolves taking care of the lambs
DJI Moving Averages

5 day 12668  Rising/Price above
20 day 12434 Rising/ Price above
50 day 12240 Rising/Price above
90 day 12075  Rising/Price above
200 day 11388 Rising/Price above
20 week 12067 Rising/Price above
50 week 11197 Rising/ Price above
90 week 10778 Rising/Price above
200 week 10841  Flat/Price above

Current trades:
3-25 Buy ZSL @ 24.05
4-21 Buy ZSL @15.40
4-21 Long UNG @11.27
4-27 Short JJC @ 56.58

Interest rates are falling as the economy falls. That makes sense but stocks rallying at he same time as profits increase, give me a break. Somebody is lying here you can't have it both ways. The bond market and the stock market are both going up together. One of them has it wrong. I say its stocks.

Mikey

Fed freak show about to end.. GDP rises 1.8%

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 12763.31 +72.95 SPX 1360.48 +4.82 NASDAQ 2872.53 +2.65
Russell 2000 861.55 +3.24 DJT 5510.06 +4.15 DJU 429.42 +2.66
US bonds and interest rates
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1043 %  2 yr .6211% 10 yr 3.31 30 yr 4.41 -.04
IEF(US10 yr) 94.28 +.36  TLT (US LT) 93.55 +0.66
MUB (LT Natl Muni)101.68 +.25 Calif Muni (NCA) 8.48 uc
HYG (High Yield) 92.63 +.05 PFF(Preferred) 39.96 +.06
BND (Total Bond Mkt) 80.85 +.15
Commodities
Commodities Index (DBC) 31.51 -.23
Gold 1531.20 +3.10 Silver 47.52 -1.20 Copper 4.24 -.05
Platinum 1839.80 +13.50 Lead (LD)62.64 -1.06  Nickel (JJN)39.39 -.01
Oil 112.86 -.54 RBOB 3.42 -.03 Nat Gas 4.57 +.16
Grains (JJG) 53.28 -2.17 Livestock (COW) 30.61 -.18
Cotton (BAL) 83.82 -.17 Agg complex(JJA) 63.11 -1.99
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Aussie 1.0947 +.0042 Euro 1.4766 +.0025 Pound 1.6535 +.0009
Yen 1.2109 +.0073 Can$ 1.0457 -.0011 USD Index 73.30 +.37
World Debt markets
BWX(Intl Treas) 62.51 +.30 PCY(Emerging Mkt) 26.61 +.01
IBND(Intl Corp Bond)34.41 -.02

All Markets Current Trends

World debt markets
US Bonds: 4-15 current trend up

US Natl Muni Markets: : 2-18 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 1-24 current trend up
Intl Corp Bonds 1-24
Emerging Markets Debt: ..3-24 current trend up

Commodities
Gold: .2-18.  current trend up
Silver: .2-08  current trend up
Copper 4-18 current trend down
Platinum 4-27 current trend up
Lead 4-28 current trend down
Nickel  4-28 current trend neutral
Grain complex 4-28 Neutral -3.91% corn-4.50%
Sugar 2-23 current trend down -1.24% today
Cotton `4-25 current trend down
Livestock 4-25 current trend down
Coffee 6-11-10 current trend up
Lumber  3-29 current trend down
Agg complex 4-28 Neutral -3.05%
Oil :2-24. current trend up
Gasoline 10-1-10 current trend up
Natural Gas 4-21 current trend up

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 3-25 current trend up
Europe 3-29 current trend up
China: .3-24 . current trend up
Brazil 3-31 current trend up (watch list neg 1.28% today
Japan 3-11 current trend down (watch list positive  +2.56% up today)
India 3-29 current trend up
Russia 4-25 neutral
Emerging Markets: .3-24.. current trend up
Total world markets 3-29 current trend up

Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 1-25 current trend down
Aussie Dollar 3-24 current trend up
Euro 1-28 current trend up

Brit Pd 1-31 current trend up

Jap Yen 4-26  current trend up  Downgrade S&P 4-26
Canadian Dollar 9-13-10 current trend up

Mexican Peso 9-22-10 current trend up
Brazilian Real 3-7 current trend up
Indian Rupe 2-22 current trend up

US Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term up 3-29 12279
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
Mikey current trend opinion: 3-29 Current trend up 12279
Mikey: 4-28 12763 Caution advisory..no long positions
IBD : 4-20 Market resumes uptrend


US markets short term  technical trading indicators:

VIX (OB 10 - OS 40) 14.62
Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) 1.01
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) .79 10 day average .81
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (..34 to 2.5)  .66   10 day ave .73
Mutial Fund  Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66)  1.17   
Williams %R 12 day -2.23 weekly -1.15
Bulls 54.3   Bears 18.5  Bull/Bear ratio 2.93
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 10 Weekly 10 (1 low, 10 max)20, -0
DJIA MACD +125.46  Rising/ positive cross 4-21
Weekly MACD +392.69 Positive cross 4-21
NYSE New Highs 358 (12/7 429)  New Lows 14
NASDAQ New Highs 168 (12-7 352) New Lows 25
Daily NYSE Advance-Decline +694  NASDAQ Advance-Decline +308
Daily Mikey A/D line NYSE (4-28 31881)+31881   NASDAQ (2-18 10095) +8055
5 day AD NYSE +3613 NASDAQ +1953
NYSE % above 200 day ave  76 %
Days to option expiration: 16

Comments:
3-24 Continuation rally out of expiration
3-25 Market rallies back to break down. Mikey is OB at 89. Put/Call ratio .84 and .85 on 10 day neutral
3-28 P/C .61 10 day .82 Mikey rates trend Neutral
3-29 IBD and Mikey issue short term uptrend signals
4-5 Fed signals possible end to easing
4-6 Long bonds sell signal
4-6 Bullish advisers drop to 15.7 indicating capitulation
4-7 Oil tops 110
4-8 Commodities take a hit
4-11 IBD Market under pressure
4-15 Options expire
4-18 DJI closes at 50
Dollar rallies on S&P Downgrade
4-20 Rally back to highs as dollar sells off
4-21 UNG enters an uptrend bought@ 11.27.
Second buy added to ZSL @ 15.40 . 
4-25 Jap Yen moves from negative to Neutral
Cotton and Livestock join Copper in a downtrend from neutral
Metal stocks weak as Gold and silver hit new highs
4-26 Yen in uptrend, S&P downgrades Yen
4-27 Fed statement QE2 to end will support economy. Players take market as riskless trade.
Fed says economy growing but lower than expected unemployment still a problem, overseas sales slowing.
4-28 weakness in commodity rank and file spreading Corn -3.24%, Agg complex -3.05% , Lead -1.66%
Indicator off the charts overbought indicats almost no fear.
Mikey issues market overbought advisory...caution

DJI Moving Averages

5 day 12607  Rising/Price above
20 day 12410 Rising/ Price above
50 day 12230 Rising/Price above
90 day 12060  Rising/Price above
200 day 11367 Rising/Price above
20 week 11999 Rising/Price above
50 week 11154 Rising/ Price above
90 week 10471 Rising/Price above
200 week 10844  Flat/Price above

Current trades:
3-25 Buy ZSL @ 24.05
4-21 Buy ZSL @15.40
4-21 Long UNG @11.27
4-27 Short JJC @ 56.58

GDP party line:

GDP grew at a 1.8% annual rate in Q1, the Commerce Department said Thursday. That’s far below Q4’s 3.1% pace but just above views for 1.7%. A day earlier, Federal Reserve head Ben Bernanke predicted high gasoline prices and other factors weighing on the economy would prove “transitory.” The central bank sees better growth for the full year, but it should remain modest while unemployment stays high.

“There’s still a lot of negatives,” said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor’s. “It continues to be a half-speed recovery.” government slashed spending at a 5.2% annual rate, the second straight decline. Federal government spending sank at a 7.9% pace on a big drop in defense procurement. State and local governments, many facing big deficits, cut spending at a 3.3% clip.

Housing was a drag, as residential investment fell at a 4.1% rate after rising at a 3.3% pace in Q4. Pending home sales rose 5.1% in March, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday. Many of those signed contracts will close in April and May, but construction should stay depressed amid a glut of foreclosures.

Meanwhile, consumers boosted spending at a 2.7% pace in Q1, down from Q4’s 4% but still OK. High gas prices and severe winter storms deterred many shoppers. Spending on durable goods rose at a 10.6% rate, led by autos. manufacturing has helped power the economy along with business spending on equipment and software, which rose at an 11.6% annual pace in Q1.

Q1 inventories rose at an annualized $43.8 billion, up from Q4’s $16.2 billion, a sign companies expect demand to keep rising. But new jobless claims rose by 25,000 last week to 429,000, the Labor Department said Thursday, unexpectedly holding above 400,000 for a third straight week.
------------------------------------------


The economy is losing steam and what these guys need is lower interest rates for the consumer who is giving it up in the first Qtr. The also need lower commodity prices and I think that this story is about to be told. That means that the government market is the place to be and the trend is up. Guess who has been buying bonds for the last 4 months. The Fed and its cronies have been selling stock into this riskiness dollar weak trade. I think the risk is very high now. Commodity weakness is spreading and the strenght in Gold silver and oil is masking the weakness. I think oil is about ready to join the parade down and I want a piece of the fall.

Mike

Trader reaction to Bernanke

By the end of Wednesday’s session, chatter on Wall Street had everything to do with Ben Bernanke’s candor about how much longer the Fed will keep rates low - and the dollar weak.

Although the Fed often uses the term extended period, the Street has often quibbled over what exactly that means.

On Wednesday, during the first ever press conference following an FOMC meeting, Fed chief Bernanke indicated 'extended period' would entail at least two meetings before a rate change.
”It’s going to be 2 meetings until they even talk about it,” says trader Brian Kelly.

”I was surprised by the specificity of it. That takes us out to the autumn at least,” adds strategic investor Dennis Gartman.

On the news, the US dollar [DXC1 73.215 -0.475 (-0.64%) ] slid to a 3-year low against major currencies, the S&P [.SPX 1355.66 8.42 (+0.62%) ] hit a new bull market high and the Nasdaq [.NCOMP 2869.88 22.34 (+0.78%) ] hit its highest level since 2000.

Did Ben Bernanke just ignite the market's next leg higher?

Trader Tim Seymour thinks in fact, he may have just done that. He took comments made by Bernanke to mean, “they will do what they need to do to get the economy to a point where investors are interested in America. And if that means a weak dollar, it means a weak dollar.”

That begs the question, do stocks [.SPX 1355.66 8.42 (+0.62%) ] benefit from weaker dollar? “It’s clear the market has endorsed that,” Seymour says.


Rebecca Patterson, JPMorgan Chief Markets Strategist agrees with Seymour. “The Fed appears committed to lower for longer.” But she adds, “at least for the time being that’s not a bad thing for the American economy.”

Trader Brian Kelly also found Ben Bernanke’s comments bullish for stocks. “If there's going to be even a minor uptick in inflation investors will put money to work in assets that will beat inflation and that makes the stock market the place to be. The outcome is a much higher stock market.”

Strategic investor Dennis Gartman notes the impact of dollar weakness on oil [CLCV1 113.32 0.56 (+0.5%) ]. But there's a silver lining in oil's march higher, he says. "Thus far, for the past year and a half, as goes oil, so goes the stock market. And on Wednesday oil broke out on the upside," he says.

Of course, the next logical question becomes when will the Fed raise rates and 'take away the punch bowl'.

George Goncalves, Head Of U.S. Rates Strategy at Nomura reminds the desk that Bernanke said the first step in tightening interest-rate policy could occur when the Fed stops reinvesting the proceeds of its bond holdings.

Bernanke would not be specific about when that might occur. He said it will depend on inflation and economic growth in coming months. And he also said that step would be a relatively modest one. But it would constitute the Fed's first tightening because it would allow interest rates to creep up.

Fed implies a safety net...... assets rally and dollar falls

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 12690 +95.59 SPX 1355.66 +8.42 NASDAQ 2869.88 +22.34
Russell 2000 858.31 +5.27 DJT 5445.91 +47.00 DJU 425.76 +2.90
US bonds and interest rates
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1119 %  2 yr .6526% 10 yr 3.36 +.04 30 yr 4.45 +.05
IEF(US10 yr) 93.92 -.27 TLT (US LT) 92.98 -98 MUB (LT Natl Muni)101.44 +.14
BND (Total Bond Mkt) 80.70 -.04 HYG (High Yield) 92.58 +.06  PFF(Preferred) 39.35 +.08
Commodities
Gold 1528.10 +24.60   Silver 48.72 +3.63 Copper 4.29 -.02 Platinum 1826.40 +10.40
Oil 113.40 +1.19 RBOB 3.45 +.10 Nat Gas 4.41 +.02  DBC 31.80 +.19
US Dollar Index and World Curencies
Aussie 1.0888 +.0075 Euro 1.4844 +.0142 Pound 1.6526 +.0154 Yen 1.2008 -.0101
Can$ 1.0458 +.0013 USD Index 72.93 -1.09
World Debt markets
BWX(Intl Treas) 62.21 +.42  PCY(Emerging Mkt) 26.59 +.08 IBND(Intl Corp Bond)35.43 +.34
All Markets Current Trends

World debt markets
US Bonds: 4-15 current trend up

US Natl Muni Markets: : 2-18 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 1-24 current trend up
Intl Corp Bonds 1-24
Emerging Markets Debt: ..3-24 current trend up

Commodities
Gold: .2-18.  current trend up
Silver: .2-08  current trend up
Copper 4-18 current trend down
Platinum 4-27 current trend up
Corn 3-31 current trend up
Sugar 2-23 current trend down
Cotton `4-25 current trend down (NEW)
Livestock 4-25 current trend down (NEW)
Coffee 6-11-10 current trend up
Lumber  3-29 current trend down

Oil :2-24. current trend up
Gasoline 10-1-10 current trend up
Natural Gas 4-21 current trend up (NEW)

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 3-25 current trend up
Europe 3-29 current trend up
China: .3-24 . current trend up
Brazil 3-31 current trend up
Japan 3-11 current trend down
India 3-29 current trend up
Russia 4-25 neutral
Emerging Markets: .3-24.. current trend up
Total world markets 3-29 current trend up

Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 1-25 current trend down
Aussie Dollar 3-24 current trend up
Euro 1-28 current trend up

Brit Pd 1-31 current trend up

Jap Yen 4-26  current trend up (NEW) Downgraded by S&P 4-26
Canadian Dollar 9-13-10 current trend up

Mexican Peso 9-22-10 current trend up
Brazilian Real 3-7 current trend up
Indian Rupe 2-22 current trend up

US Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term up 3-29 12279
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
Mikey current trend opinion: 3-29 Current trend up 12279
IBD : 4-20 Market resumes uptrend

US markets short term trading indicators

VIX (OB 10 - OS 40) 15.35
Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) 99
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) .70 10 day average .81
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (..34 to 2.5)  .73   10 day ave .74
Mutial Fund  Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66)  1.17   
Williams %R 12 day -3.42 weekly -1.73
Bulls 54.3   Bears 18.5  Bull/Bear ratio 2.93
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 10 Weekly 10 (1 low, 10 max)20, -0
DJIA MACD +99.75 Rising/ positive cross 4-21
Weekly MACD +370.15 Positive cross 4-21
NYSE New Highs 284 (12/7 429)  New Lows 19
NASDAQ New Highs 146 (12-7 352) New Lows 23
Daily NYSE Advance-Decline +891 NASDAQ Advance-Decline +662
Daily Mikey A/D line NYSE (4-27 31187)+31187  NASDAQ (2-18 10095) +7747
5 day AD NYSE +4897 NASDAQ +3020
NYSE % above 200 day ave  76 %
Days to option expiration: 17
Comments:
3-24 Continuation rally out of expiration
3-25 Market rallies back to break down. Mikey is OB at 89. Put/Call ratio .84 and .85 on 10 day neutral
3-28 P/C .61 10 day .82 Mikey rates trend Neutral
3-29 IBD and Mikey issue short term uptrend signals
4-5 Fed signals possible end to easing
4-6 Long bonds sell signal
4-6 Bullish advisers drop to 15.7 indicating capitulation
4-7 Oil tops 110
4-8 Commodities take a hit
4-11 IBD Market under pressure
4-15 Options expire
4-18 DJI closes at 50
Dollar rallies on S&P Downgrade
4-20 Rally back to highs as dollar sells off
4-21 UNG enters an uptrend bought@ 11.27.
Second buy added to ZSL @ 15.40 . 
4-25 Jap Yen moves from negative to Neutral
Cotton and Livestock join Copper in a downtrend from neutral
Metal stocks weak as Gold and silver hit new highs
4-26 Yen in uptrend, S&P downgrades Yen
4-27 Fed statement QE2 to end will support economy. Players take market as riskless trade.
Fed says economy growing but lower than expected unemployment still a problem, overseas sales slowing.

DJI Moving Averages

5 day 12526 Rising/Price above
20 day 12834 Rising/ Price above
50 day 12217 Rising/Price above
90 day 12045 Rising/Price above
200 day 11363 Rising/Price above
20 week 11999 Rising/Price above
50 week 11154 Rising/ Price above
90 week 10471 Rising/Price above
200 week 10844  Flat/Price above

Current trades:
3-25 Buy ZSL @ 24.05
4-21 Buy ZSL @15.40
4-21 Long UNG @11.27


Bernanke spoke today and gave the market what it wanted to hear. The problem is that what they have done so far has not worked. They can support the stocks and sell dollars all they want but higher commodity prices and lower housing prices with high chronic unemployment is not a good thing. The truth is that the market moves higher as the economy moves lower. This is happening worldwide. The disconnect is getting wider

Today was a statement day. The investment community feels safe and secure in the belief that the Fed is going to save everything and maybe they can. If there is a sell off they will be buying that pullback with out fear. This is not a good thing.

I see a number of commodities selling off. They include Lumber, Cotton, Meat and Sugar. This to me is evidence that demand is falling worldwide. Prices are hurting demand. The most visible commodities oil. gold and silver are exceptionally strong but so were all commodities just 1 month ago. Something different is going on now and it is important to monitor the trend regardless of the implied safety net the Fed is giving.  I believe that the Fed is in its exit strategy now it is sneaking out the back door as the economy weakens. They say they are buying bonds and it we have a weak economy that would be a great time for them to sell those bonds for a profit. Until then we stay follow the trends.

Mikey

Bernanke's comments

The economic outlook: The FOMC cut its 2011 growth forecast to 3.1%-3.3% from 3.4%-3.9%, reflecting what Bernanke called the somewhat slower than anticipated growth in the first quarter.

The 2011 unemployment forecast was cut to 8.4%-8.7% from 8.8%-8.9%, still well above the long term average of 5.2%-5.6%.

On the weak Q1 economic outlook: when asked what has caused the weakness in the first quarter economic activity (the Q1 GDP revision, out tomorrow, is expected to be notably lower than the 3.1 percent gain in the first estimate), Bernanke noted weaker exports, as well as the weather...the Fed views most of the slowdown as "transitory," though he admitted that some factors may have a longer term implication, like construction, which was notably weaker.

On inflation: he repeated his expectation that "inflation will come down to a more normal level."

On the weak dollar: Bernanke spoke of the "safe haven effect"...that during the economic crisis money poured into U.S. Treasurys, driving up the dollar, and that what has happened recently is the unwinding of much of that trade.

On the high price of gasoline: Bernanke blamed the rapidly growing global economy, particularly emerging markets, where demand for oil is very strong, coupled with constrained supply from the Middle East. He said that accounts for "pretty much all" of the increase in inflation.

Bernanke noted that "the Fed can't create more oil" or control the growth rates of emerging economies, but it can try to prevent those increases from passing into the general economy and create broader inflation.

On unemployment: "the labor market is improving gradually" but the "pace of improvement is very slow" and we are still 7 million jobs below we were prior to the economic crisis.

On the end of QE2 (quantitative easing): the end of the program "is unlikely to have significant effects" on the markets or the economy because the Fed has telegraphed what they are going to do. What mattters for interest rates and stocks is the size of the portfolio the Fed holds...they will continue to reinvest maturing securities, both Treasurys and MBS, so the amount of securities they hold will remain relatively constant.

On what QE2 has done to help the economy: QE2 "was effective," with reduced spreads in credit markets, as well as reduced volatility, similar to a normal Fed easing. QE2 was not supposed to be a panacea, but relative to what they expected it was successful. Why not do more? Inflation expectations are higher, it's not clear we can get substantial improvements in payrolls without some additional inflation, so it's important to examine both parts of the mandate.

When asked about long-term unemployment, Bernanke noted that 45 percent of all unemployed have been unemployed 6 months or more, and the effects of this have been very serious...this might lead unemployment to stay high for a protracted period, and it is one of the reasons the Fed has been so aggressive. Job training and other interventions might be more effective than monetary policy.

On Standard and Poor's putting U.S. debt on a negative watch: "it didn't really tell us anything" because everyone knows the U.S. has a long-term problem.

Very overbought market closes at new highs..Ben speaks tomorrow

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 12552.69 +72.81 SPX 1343.99 +8.74 NASDAQ 2842.45 +16.57
Russell 2000 851.47 +7.24 DJT 5379.30 +78.49  DJU 421.29 +2.80
US bonds and interest rates
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1221 %  2 yr .6526% 10 yr 3.32 -.04 30 yr 4.40 -.05
IEF(US10 yr) 94.19 +.40 TLT (US LT) 93.84 +.90 MUB (LT Natl Muni)101.30 +.22
BND (Total Bond Mkt) 80.74 +.25 HYG (High Yield) 92.52 +.31 PFF(Preferred) 39.82 +.08
Commodities
Gold 1503.50 -3.60  Silver 45.09 -2.09 Copper 4.31 -.01 Platinum 1816.00 -12.10
Oil 112.21 -.12 RBOB 3.35 +.03 Nat Gas 4.39 uc DBC 31.61 -..01
US Dollar Index and World Curencies
Aussie 1.0812 +.0057  Euro 1.4641 + .0114 Pound 1.6372 -.0018 Yen 1.2112 +.0027
Can$ 1.0508 +.0089  USD Index 74.02 -.16  
World Debt markets
BWX(Intl Treas) 61.79 +.31 PCY(Emerging Mkt) 26.51 +.01  IBND(Intl Corp Bond)35.09 +.06 

All Markets Current Trends

World debt markets
US Bonds: 4-15 current trend up

US Natl Muni Markets: : 2-18 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 1-24 current trend up
Intl Corp Bonds 1-24
Emerging Markets Debt: ..3-24 current trend up

Commodities
Gold: .2-18.  current trend up
Silver: .2-08  current trend up
Copper 4-18 current trend down
Platinum 4-11 current trend neutral

Corn 3-31 current trend up
Sugar 2-23 current trend down
Cotton `4-25 current trend down (NEW)
Livestock 4-25 current trend down (NEW)
Coffee 6-11-10 current trend up
Lumber  3-29 current trend down

Oil :2-24. current trend up
Gasoline 10-1-10 current trend up
Natural Gas 4-21 current trend up (NEW)

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 3-25 current trend up
Europe 3-29 current trend up
China: .3-24 . current trend up
Brazil 3-31 current trend up
Japan 3-11 current trend down
India 3-29 current trend up
Russia 4-25 neutral
Emerging Markets: .3-24.. current trend up
Total world markets 3-29 current trend up

Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 1-25 current trend down
Aussie Dollar 3-24 current trend up
Euro 1-28 current trend up

Brit Pd 1-31 current trend up

Jap Yen 4-26  current trend up (NEW) Downgraded by S&P 4-26
Canadian Dollar 9-13-10 current trend up

Mexican Peso 9-22-10 current trend up
Brazilian Real 3-7 current trend up
Indian Rupe 2-22 current trend up

US Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term up 3-29 12279
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
Mikey current trend opinion: 3-29 Current trend up 12279
IBD : 4-20 Market resumes uptrend

US markets short term trading indicators

VIX (OB 10 - OS 40) 15.23
Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) 99
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) .79 10 day average .83
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (..34 to 2.5)  .66   10 day ave .74
Mutial Fund  Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66)  1.17   
Williams %R 12 day -3.52   weekly -1.73
Bulls 44.8   Bears 26.4  Bull/Bear ratio 1.70
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 10 Weekly 10 (1 low, 10 max)20, -0
DJIA MACD +90.21 Rising/ positive cross 4-21
Weekly MACD +370.15 Positive cross 4-21
NYSE New Highs 319 (12/7 429)  New Lows 6
NASDAQ New Highs 159 (12-7 352) New Lows 25
Daily NYSE Advance-Decline +1351 NASDAQ Advance-Decline +707
Daily Mikey A/D line NYSE (4-6 29677)+30296 NASDAQ (2-18 10095) +7085
5 day AD NYSE +5032 NASDAQ +2384
NYSE % above 200 day ave  76 %
Days to option expiration: 18

Comments:
3-24 Continuation rally out of expiration
3-25 Market rallies back to break down. Mikey is OB at 89. Put/Call ratio .84 and .85 on 10 day neutral
3-28 P/C .61 10 day .82 Mikey rates trend Neutral
3-29 IBD and Mikey issue short term uptrend signals
4-5 Fed signals possible end to easing
4-6 Long bonds sell signal
4-6 Bullish advisers drop to 15.7 indicating capitulation
4-7 Oil tops 110
4-8 Commodities take a hit
4-11 IBD Market under pressure
4-15 Options expire
4-18 DJI closes at 50
Dollar rallies on S&P Downgrade
4-20 Rally back to highs as dollar sells off
4-21 UNG enters an uptrend bought@ 11.27.
Second buy added to ZSL @ 15.40 . 
4-25 Jap Yen moves from negative to Neutral
Cotton and Livestock join Copper in a downtrend from neutral
Metal stocks weak as Gold and silver hit new highs
4-26 Yen in uptrend, S&P downgrades Yen


DJI Moving Averages

5 day 12460 Rising/Price above
20 day 12369 Rising/ Price above
50 day 12210 Rising/Price above
90 day 12032 Rising/Price above
200 day 11352 Rising/Price above
20 week 11999 Rising/Price above
50 week 11154 Rising/ Price above
90 week 10471 Rising/Price above
200 week 10844  Flat/Price above

Current trades:
3-25 Buy ZSL @ 24.05
4-21 Buy ZSL @15.40
4-21 Long UNG @11.27

The Mikey OB/OS is a very high 99 and the 5 day AD is a very healthy 5032. The averages are making new highs before Bens speech on the state of Fed policy tomorrow. The oil markets are stuck at the highs and Gold is static just above 1500. No matter what old Ben says the market will only believe that the Fed is going to support the whole thing.

If you need evidence that these guys have a sense of humor then look at the consumer confidence numbers. They came in better than expected. I wonder what was the reason for all of this confidence was it oil prices or the new low in housing prices reported this week or maybe the public has invested their cash in the silver market.  The silver market traded huge volume over the past two weeks.

Mikey

Metal Stock sell off as Gold and Silver rally

In the old days the stocks would always lead the metals. I have posted some charts of leading Gold and Silver producers and the charts of Gold and Silver. You can see that the metals are much stronger than the stocks. The public is buying the stocks and metals with both hands on the idea that the dollar is going down for ever. The stocks don't believe it and are selling off. Not a good sign. The Gold miners index (GDX) was down 1.47 today as Gold rallied to a new high. Pan American -1.52, Nemont -1.30, Agnico -2.09, Coure DAlene -1.25. Those are big moves down as the Metals made new highs. You have been warned.

Gold Miners Index

Aegnico Eagle

CoureDAlene

Nemont Mining

Pan Am Silver

Gold

Silver



Yen closing in on uptrend, Copper, Cotton, Livestock enter downtrends

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 12484.53 -26.11 SPX 1330.06 -1.32 NASDAQ 2824.62 +4.46
Russell 2000 843.76 -1.88 DJT 5311.73 +21.01 DJU 419.27 +.90  
US bonds and interest rates
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1167 %  2 yr .6357% 10 yr 3.36 -.04 30 yr 4.45 -.02
IEF(US10 yr) 93.79 +.33 TLT (US LT) 92.93 +.33  MUB (LT Natl Muni)101.08 +.08
BND (Total Bond Mkt) 80.49 +.05 HYG (High Yield) 92.31 -.10 PFF(Preferred) 39.76 +.09
Commodities
Gold 1509.10 +5.30 Silver 47.14 +1.09 Copper 4.30 -.09  Platinum 1828.10 +7.40   
Oil 112.28 -.01 RBOB 3.32 +.01 Nat Gas 4.39 -.02   DBC 31.62 -.09
US Dollar Index and World Curencies
Aussie 1.0749+.0038 Euro 1.4527 +0026 Pound 1.6390 -.0035 Yen 1.2072 +.0002
Can$ 1.0416 -.0014 USD Index 74.18 UC
World Debt markets
BWX(Intl Treas) 61.48 +.04 PCY(Emerging Mkt) 26.50 -.01 IBND(Intl Corp Bond)35.03 +.15

All Markets Current Trends

World debt markets
US Bonds: 4-15 current trend up

US Natl Muni Markets: : 2-18 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 1-24 current trend up
Intl Corp Bonds 1-24
Emerging Markets Debt: ..3-24 current trend up

Commodities
Gold: .2-18.  current trend up
Silver: .2-08  current trend up
Copper 4-18 current trend down
Platinum 4-11 current trend neutral

Corn 3-31 current trend up
Sugar 2-23 current trend down
Cotton `4-25 current trend down (NEW)
Livestock 4-25 current trend down (NEW)
Coffee 6-11-10 current trend up

Oil :2-24. current trend up
Gasoline 10-1-10 current trend up
Natural Gas 4-21 current trend up (NEW)

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 3-25 current trend up
Europe 3-29 current trend up
China: .3-24 . current trend up
Brazil 3-31 current trend up
Japan 3-11 current trend down
India 3-29 current trend up
Russia 4-25 neutral
Emerging Markets: .3-24.. current trend up
Total world markets 3-29 current trend up

Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 1-25 current trend down
Aussie Dollar 3-24 current trend up
Euro 1-28 current trend up

Brit Pd 1-31 current trend up

Jap Yen 4-25  current trend neutral (NEW)
Canadian Dollar 9-13-10 current trend up

Mexican Peso 9-22-10 current trend up
Brazilian Real 3-7 current trend up
Indian Rupe 2-22 current trend up

US Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term up 3-29 12279
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
Mikey current trend opinion: 3-29 Current trend up 12279
IBD : 4-20 Market resumes uptrend

US markets short term trading indicators

VIX (OB 10 - OS 40) 15.77
Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) 97
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) .72 10 day average .84
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (..34 to 2.5)  .64   10 day ave .74
Mutial Fund  Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66)  1.17   
Williams %R 12 day -.6.24  weekly -2.70
Bulls 44.8   Bears 26.4  Bull/Bear ratio 1.70
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 9 Weekly 10 (1 low, 10 max)19, -1
DJIA MACD +77.07 Rising/ positive cross 4-21
Weekly MACD +370.15 Positive cross 4-21
NYSE New Highs 204 (12/7 429)  New Lows 14
NASDAQ New Highs 122 (12-7 352) New Lows 19
Daily NYSE Advance-Decline -261 NASDAQ Advance-Decline -216
Daily Mikey A/D line NYSE (4-6 29677)+28945 NASDAQ (2-18 10095) +6378
5 day AD NYSE +1813 NASDAQ +119
NYSE % above 200 day ave  74 %
Days to option expiration: 19

Comments:
3-24 Continuation rally out of expiration
3-25 Market rallies back to break down. Mikey is OB at 89. Put/Call ratio .84 and .85 on 10 day neutral
3-28 P/C .61 10 day .82 Mikey rates trend Neutral
3-29 IBD and Mikey issue short term uptrend signals
4-5 Fed signals possible end to easing
4-6 Long bonds sell signal
4-6 Bullish advisers drop to 15.7 indicating capitulation
4-7 Oil tops 110
4-8 Commodities take a hit
4-11 IBD Market under pressure
4-15 Options expire
4-18 DJI closes at 50
Dollar rallies on S&P Downgrade
4-20 Rally back to highs as dollar sells off
4-21 UNG enters an uptrend bought@ 11.27.
Second buy added to ZSL @ 15.40 . 
4-25 Jap Yen moves from negative to Neutral
Cotton and Livestock join Copper in a downtrend from neutral
Metal stocks weak as Gold and silver hit new highs

DJI Moving Averages

5 day 12381 Rising/Price above
20 day 12349 Rising/ Price above
50 day 12204 Rising/Price above
90 day 12020 Rising/Price above
200 day 11340 Rising/Price above
20 week 11999 Rising/Price above
50 week 11154 Rising/ Price above
90 week 10471 Rising/Price above
200 week 10844  Flat/Price above

Current trades:
3-25 Buy ZSL @ 24.05
4-21 Buy ZSL @15.40
4-21 Long UNG @11.27


Charts of interest:

YEN

Livestock

Cotton



Copper





US and world markets party on falling dollar

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 12505.99 +52.45 SPX 1337.38 +7.02 NASDAQ 2820.16 +17.65
Russell 2000 845.64 +6.19 DJT 5290.72 +31.96 DJU 418.37 +.67
US bonds and interest rates
US Gov rates: 6 mo .1116 %  2 yr .6603% 10 yr 3.40 -.01 30 yr 4.47 uc
IEF(US10 yr) 93.52 +.13  TLT (US LT) 92.53 -.15 MUB (LT Natl Muni)100.90 -.10
BND (Total Bond Mkt) 80.39 uc HYG (High Yield) 92.35 +.16  PFF(Preferred) 39.67 +.09
Commodities
Gold 1503.80 +4.90  Silver 46.05 +1.60 Copper 4.40 +.06 Platinum 1820.90 +18.10  
Oil 112.29 +.84 RBOB 3.30 +.03 Nat Gas 4.41 +.10  DBC 31.71 +.23
US Dollar Index and World Curencies
Aussie 1.0778 +.65 Euro 1.4494 +.0037 Pound 1.6411 +.0113 Yen 1.2070 -.0008 Can$ 1.0491
USD Index 74.18 -.38
World Debt markets
BWX(Intl Treas) 61.44 +.39 PCY(Emerging Mkt) 26.51 -.01 IBND(Intl Corp Bond)34.88 +.16

All Markets Current Trends

World debt markets
US Bonds: 4-15 current trend up

US Natl Muni Markets: : 2-18 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 1-24 current trend up
Intl Corp Bonds 1-24
Emerging Markets Debt: ..3-24 current trend up

Commodities
Gold: .2-18.  current trend up
Silver: .2-08  current trend up
Copper 4-18 current trend down
Platinum 4-11 current trend neutral

Corn 3-31 current trend up
Sugar 2-23 current trend down
Cotton 4-18 current trend neutral
Livestock 4-21 current trend neutral
Coffee 6-11-10 current trend up

Oil :2-24. current trend up
Gasoline 10-1-10 current trend up
Natural Gas 4-21 current trend up (NEW)

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 3-25 current trend up
Europe 3-29 current trend up
China: .3-24 . current trend up
Brazil 3-31 current trend up
Japan 3-11 current trend down
India 3-29 current trend up
Russia 4-19 current trend up
Emerging Markets: .3-24.. current trend up
Total world markets 3-29 current trend up

Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 1-25 current trend down
Aussie Dollar 3-24 current trend up
Euro 1-28 current trend up

Brit Pd 1-31 current trend up

Jap Yen 3-31  current trend down

Canadian Dollar 9-13-10 current trend up

Mexican Peso 9-22-10 current trend up
Brazilian Real 3-7 current trend up
Indian Rupe 2-22 current trend up

US Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term up 3-29 12279
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
Mikey current trend opinion: 3-29 Current trend up 12279
IBD : 4-20 Market resumes uptrend

US markets short term trading indicators

VIX (OB 10 - OS 40) 14.69
Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) 1.01
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) .84 10 day average .86
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (..34 to 2.5)  .70   10 day ave .74
Mutial Fund  Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66)  1.17   
Williams %R 12 day -.19 weekly -.08
Bulls 44.8   Bears 26.4  Bull/Bear ratio 1.70
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily10 Weekly 10 (1 low, 10 max)20, 0
DJIA MACD +70.75 Rising/ positive cross 4-21
Weekly MACD +371.62 Positive cross 4-21
NYSE New Highs 225 (12/7 429)  New Lows 10
NASDAQ New Highs 141 (12-7 352) New Lows 20
Daily NYSE Advance-Decline +938 NASDAQ Advance-Decline +492
Daily Mikey A/D line NYSE (4-6 29677)+29206  NASDAQ (2-18 10095) +6594
5 day AD NYSE +3187 NASDAQ +1131
NYSE % above 200 day ave  75 %
Days to option expiration: 20

Comments:
3-24 Continuation rally out of expiration
3-25 Market rallies back to break down. Mikey is OB at 89. Put/Call ratio .84 and .85 on 10 day neutral
3-28 P/C .61 10 day .82 Mikey rates trend Neutral
3-29 IBD and Mikey issue short term uptrend signals
4-5 Fed signals possible end to easing
4-6 Long bonds sell signal
4-6 Bullish advisers drop to 15.7 indicating capitulation
4-7 Oil tops 110
4-8 Commodities take a hit
4-11 IBD Market under pressure
4-15 Options expire
4-18 DJI closes at 50
Dollar rallies on S&P Downgrade
4-20 Rally back to highs as dollar sells off
4-21 UNG enters an uptrend bought@ 11.27.
Second buy added to ZSL @ 15.40 . 

Moving Averages

5 day 12353 Rising/Price above
20 day 12336 Rising/ Price above
50 day 12199 Rising/Price above
90 day 12009 Rising/Price above
200 day 11329 Rising/Price above
20 week 11999 Rising/Price above
50 week 11154 Rising/ Price above
90 week 10471 Rising/Price above
200 week 10844  Flat/Price above

Current trades:
3-25 Buy ZSL @ 24.05
4-21 Buy ZSL @15.40
4-21 Long UNG @11.27


The markets partied hearty on the dollar weakness this week. The party is at the stage where the party goers are about to overdose. That means that something bad is going to happen. You can only misbehave for so long and this has been going on for way too long now.The DJI closed at a new high going into Easter. All trends are up and there is no market tomorrow. UNG entered an uptrend this week and I added it to my buy list based on technical action. I also added to my ZSL position on Friday at 15.40. ZSL is double short silver and silver is a rocket ship to the moon right now. Obviously, I am going against a strong trend. This is not smart but the breakout at 30 in Feb will be filled. There is another unfilled break out at 18 in August 2010. These breakouts will be filled at some point.

Natural Gas

ZSL (Double short Silver)

Silver

Silver 3 year 

Mikey