Place your bets

DJIA 11891.93 +68.23 SPX 1286.12 +9.78  NASDAQ 2700.08 +13.19
DJT 5025.11 +30.24 DJU  409.35 +.41 VIX 19.53
US Gov rates: 6 mo .167%  2 yr .5658% 10 yr 3.36  30 yr  4.57 +.03 
Gold 1333.80 Silver 28.17 +.25 Copper 4.46 +.09 Platinum 1800.90 -4.10  
Oil 92.19 +2.70 RBOB 2.49 +05 Nat Gas 4.42 +.10  
Aussie .9999 +.39  EURO 1.3638 +.0081 Pound 1.5928 +.0160
USD Index 77.86 -.42 DBC 28.53 +.44
Days to option expiration: 19
Long Term Opinions:

US Bonds: Major long term top forming. .... Current trend down
Muni Markets: Rough times ahead: Current trend down
Stocks: Secondary bear market rally ending......  Current trend up 
Gold: Primary top forming crash expected.....  Current trend down
Oil : Secondary bear market rally ending..... Current trend up
Commodities: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend up weakening
Real Estate: Bottoming ..... Current trend down

US Dollar: Long term bottom forming .Current Trend down 1-18
US Economy: Double dip coming .....Current trend up

Emerging Markets: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend down
Emerging Markets Debt: A disaster.... Current trend down
World economy: Current trend slowing
World political environment: Tension, aggravated

Where's Waldo: Waldo is buying Gold, Foreign Bonds and Emerging Markets.

Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term up 12-6 11362
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
Mikey current trend opinion: 1-21 (DJI 11871) The caution light is on for this uptrend :
IBD : 1-28 11823 uptrend under pressure


Oil upside breakout 12-1-10 @87.42 USO 37.29
Gold upside breakout 9-22-10 @1283.50 GLD 123.11
Dollar Index breakdown 9-21-10 @81.17  UUP 23.52

Short Term Trading Indicators

Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) .83
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS).84
10 day average .82
Ratio Put Premiums/Call Premium  (extremes .60/ 1.54) .
Put Premium 10 day average
Sentiment Total Score: Put/call + premium ratio = 
10 day Sentiment Total Score: Put/call + premium ratio =
Daily-Weekly=
Williams %R 12 day -.40.54 weekly -.11.95
Bulls 56 Bears 20.9 Bull/Bear ratio 2.67
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 6 Weekly 9 (1 low, 10 max) 15, -3
DJIA MACD 119.50 falling /Positive cross 1-18
NYSE New Highs 139 (Lagging)New Lows 21
NASDAQ New Highs 81 (Lagging) New Lows 38(new high this move)
NYSE Advance-Decline +1139 NASDAQ Advance-Decline +448
Mikey A/D line.(from 9/17/10). NYSE 17268  NASDAQ +6412
NYSE % above 200 day ave  %

Support: 1220 SPX, 11258 DJIA Breakout 9/20
Resistance: 1305 SPX; 11867 DJIA
Downside reversal 1207 SPX, DJIA 11200, NASDAQ 2550

Comments:
1-3 New highs on averages and A/D line N/H N/L Still off Nov 4 highs
1-4 Gold drops $44 Oil 2.17 Commodities showing weakness
Market sells off on higher volume DJIA up
Dollar holds 50 day average turns up
1-7 Foreign markets showing weakness. India in a downtrend
Dollar nears intermediate reversal levels up
Bad news in Europe surfaces again
1-10 MACD Negative cross
World markets give sell signal
1-12 New highs in DJI and NASDAQ confirmd by AD Line.
1-13 New lows expand on NYSE to 111
1-14 New highs confirmed by AD line
1-18 AAPL blows away earnings
1-19 Big distribution day NYSE 1646 net declines Nasdaq 1758 net declines
1-20 Google blows away earnings estimate
1-20 IBD goes to market under pressure
1-20 AAPL selling off on big volume
1-21 Mikey Caution light is on for this uptrend
1-21 Google stocks reverse lower on big volume
Options expire
1-25 Consumer confidence strong, State of the Union message..overhall taxes
1-26 IBD Uptrend resumes, S&P, NASDAQ 2 year highs..Fed meets no changes Assets rally
1-28 Big distribution day second in 2 weeks
1-28 IBD uptrend under pressure

Moving Averages

5 day 11933  Falling/Price below
20 day 11802 Rising/ Price above 
50 day 11802 Rising/Price above
200 day 10824 Rising/Price above
20 week 11371 Rising/Price above
50 week 10829 Rising/Price above
90 week 10295 Rising/Price above
200 week 10902 Flat/Price above

World Markets (Power Numbers) Ave score 55
DJIA 69 Emer Mkts 31 China 43, Brazil 46 Europe 58  Russia 59  Japan 46  Korea 36, India 43, Australia 56 Germany 78, Spain 87  UK 67

Commodities (Power Numbers)
Oil 54, Nat Gas 52, Gasoline 64
Gold 44, Copper 62,  Silver 44, Platinum 53
Grains 58 DBC 75


Currencies (Power Numbers)
USD 16, Aussie 49 Euro 84 , Brit Pd 66, Yuan 45, Yen 69

US Industry Groups (relative strength) Ave Score 53
8 up, 22 Neutral, Downtrend 5 Score +3
Homebuilders (XHB) 49,  Real Estate (IYR) 64, Finance (XLF) 57, Regional Banks (IAT) 52, Insurance (IAK) 52 , Broker/Dealers ( IAI) 54, Retail (XRT) 42, Consumer Disc (XLY) 42, Telecom (IYZ) 47, Consumer Staple (XLP) 37, Health (XLV) 47, Pharma (IHE) 38, Biotech (PBE ) 46, Transports (IYT) 44 Aerospace (ITA) 62, Shipping (SEA) 33, Airlines ($XAL) 37, ,Utilities (XLU) 51 , Metals and Mining( XME) 54, Copper (COPX) 47, Nat Gas Production (FCG ) 68, Oil Expl and Prod (IEO) 67 Oil Service (OIH) 73,  Coal (KOL) 49,  Energy (XLE) 73, Gold Miners (GDX) 38, Steel  (SLX) 51, Basic Mat (XLB) 54, Timber (Wood) 64 AgriBusiness (MOO) 59, Tech (XLK) 53, Semiconductors (SMH) 62, Software (SWH) 57 Networking (PXQ) 47, Internet (FDN) 45

Bonds (Relative Strength)

 (2 up, 1 down, 6 neutral) Score +1

MUB (Natl Muni) 50 NCA(Ca Muni) 45 

BND (Total Bond Index) 49 BWX (International Treas Bonds) 62, PCY (Emerg Mkt Debt) 29 TLT (20+ US Treasuries) 46, IEF ( 10 yr Treasuries) 49, PFF (US preferred) 56, HYG (High Yield) 63

Place your bets! Is the sell off real or just a blip? That is what this week will be all about. The market internals are continuing to weaken. The NASDAQ new lows expanded to a new high for this move. The big names are still holding the fort but there are alot of stocks that have broken and the DJI is still not showing it. I still have no sell signal based on price. Caution is still the watch word as I think this one is for real.  The oil rally is really being hyped. I strongly believe that the oil rally is doomed.

Mikey

Egypt causes sell off? I don't see it that way.

DJIA 11823.70 -166.13 SPX 1276.34 -23.20 NASDAQ 2686.89 -68.39
DJT 4994.87 -140.44 DJU  408.94 -23.20 VIX 20.04
US Gov rates: 6 mo .137%  2 yr .5424% 10 yr 3.32 -.07 30 yr  4.53 -.05
Gold 1318.40 +22.30 Silver 27.92 +.90  Copper 4.37 +.03 Platinum 1805 +1.50
Oil 89.49 +3.85 RBOB 2.45 +.04 Nat Gas 4.32 uch 
Aussie .9960 +.35 EURO 1.3557 -0129 Pound 1.5768 -.0067
USD Index 78.28 +.42 DBC 28.09 +.35
Days to option expiration: 20

Long Term Opinions:

US Bonds: Major long term top forming. .... Current trend down
Muni Markets: Rough times ahead: Current trend down
Stocks: Secondary bear market rally ending......  Current trend up 
Gold: Primary top forming crash expected.....  Current trend down
Oil : Secondary bear market rally ending..... Current Trend down 1-24
Commodities: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend up weakening
Real Estate: Bottoming ..... Current trend down

US Dollar: Major long term bottom forming .....Current Trend down 1-18
US Economy: Double dip coming .....Current trend up

Emerging Markets: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend down
Emerging Markets Debt: A disaster.... Current trend down
World economy: Current trend slowing
World political environment: Tension, aggravated

Where's Waldo: Waldo is buying Gold, Foreign Bonds and Emerging Markets.

Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term up 12-6 11362
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
Mikey current trend opinion: 1-21 (DJI 11871) The caution light is on for this uptrend :
IBD : 1-28 11823 uptrend under pressure


Oil upside breakout 12-1-10 @87.42 USO 37.29
Gold upside breakout 9-22-10 @1283.50 GLD 123.11
Dollar Index breakdown 9-21-10 @81.17  UUP 23.52

Short Term Trading Indicators

Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) .80
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS)1.00
10 day average .79
Ratio Put Premiums/Call Premium  (extremes .60/ 1.54) .
Put Premium 10 day average
Sentiment Total Score: Put/call + premium ratio = 
10 day Sentiment Total Score: Put/call + premium ratio =
Daily-Weekly=
Williams %R 12 day -.56.27weekly -.17.89
Bulls 56 Bears 20.9 Bull/Bear ratio 2.67
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 4 Weekly 8 (1 low, 10 max) 12, -4
DJIA MACD 126.04 falling /Positive cross 1-18
NYSE New Highs 142 (Lagging)New Lows 19
NASDAQ New Highs 100 (Lagging) New Lows 26
NYSE Advance-Decline -2049 NASDAQ Advance-Decline -1802
Mikey A/D line.(from 9/17/10). NYSE 16129  NASDAQ +5964
NYSE % above 200 day ave  %

Support: 1220 SPX, 11258 DJIA Breakout 9/20
Resistance: 1305 SPX; 11867 DJIA
Downside reversal 1207 SPX, DJIA 11200, NASDAQ 2550

Comments:
1-3 New highs on averages and A/D line N/H N/L Still off Nov 4 highs
1-4 Gold drops $44 Oil 2.17 Commodities showing weakness
Market sells off on higher volume DJIA up
Dollar holds 50 day average turns up
1-7 Foreign markets showing weakness. India in a downtrend
Dollar nears intermediate reversal levels up
Bad news in Europe surfaces again
1-10 MACD Negative cross
World markets give sell signal
1-12 New highs in DJI and NASDAQ confirmd by AD Line.
1-13 New lows expand on NYSE to 111
1-14 New highs confirmed by AD line
1-18 AAPL blows away earnings
1-19 Big distribution day NYSE 1646 net declines Nasdaq 1758 net declines
1-20 Google blows away earnings estimate
1-20 IBD goes to market under pressure
1-20 AAPL selling off on big volume
1-21 Mikey Caution light is on for this uptrend
1-21 Google stocks reverse lower on big volume
Options expire
1-25 Consumer confidence strong, State of the Union message..overhall taxes
1-26 IBD Uptrend resumes, S&P, NASDAQ 2 year highs..Fed meets no changes Assets rally
1-28 Big distribution day second in 2 weeks
1-28 IBD uptrend under pressure

Moving Averages

5 day 11951  Falling/Price below
20 day 11786 Rising/ Price above 
50 day 11526 Rising/Price above
200 day 10820 Rising/Price above
20 week 11307 Rising/Price above
50 week 10799 Rising/Price above
90 week 10255 Rising/Price above
200 week 10905 Flat/Price above

World Markets (Power Numbers) Ave score 50
DJIA 68 Emer Mkts 27 China 35, Brazil 33 Europe 51  Russia 53  Japan 51  Korea 45, India 35, Australia 49  Germany 72, Spain 82  UK 57

Commodities (Power Numbers)
Oil 43, Nat Gas 46, Gasoline 53
Gold 44, Copper 55,  Silver 37, Platinum 57
Grains 49 DBC 67


Currencies (Power Numbers)
USD 25, Aussie 47 Euro 78 , Brit Pd 66, Yuan 44, Yen 69

US Industry Groups (relative strength) Ave Score 48
3 up, 24 Neutral, Downtrend 6 Score -3

Homebuilders (XHB) 51,  Real Estate (IYR) 59, Finance (XLF) 51, Insurance (IAK) 50 , Broker/Dealers ( IAI) 51, Retail (XRT) 41, Consumer Disc (XLY) 41, Telecom (IYZ) 46, Consumer Staple (XLP) 39, Health (XLV) 41, Pharma (IHE) 36, Biotech (PBE ) 38, Transports (IYT) 40 Aerospace (ITA) 58, Shipping (SEA) 34, Airlines ($XAL) 39, ,Utilities (XLU) 50 , Metals and Mining( XME) 50, Copper (COPX) 44, Nat Gas Production (FCG ) 58, Oil Expl and Prod (IEO) 55 Oil Service (OIH) 68,  Coal (KOL) 42,  Energy (XLE) 65, Gold Miners (GDX) 39, Steel  (SLX) 46, Basic Mat (XLB) 47, AgriBusiness (MOO) 56, Tech (XLK) 52, Semiconductors (SMH) 61, Software (SWH) 54 Networking (PXQ) 56, Internet (FDN) 44

Bonds (Relative Strength)

 (0 up, 1 down, 5 neutral) Score -1

MUB (Natl Muni) 55 NCA(Ca Muni) 44 

BND (Total Bond Index) 52 BWX (International Treas Bonds) 57, PCY (Emerg Mkt Debt) 31 TLT (20+ US Treasuries) 47, IEF ( 10 yr Treasuries) 51, PFF (US preferred) 51, HYG (High Yield) 57

They will blame the sell off on Egypt but it is about what is going to happen to the economy. There is always an unexpected event that tips the scales. The sell offs from these kinds of tops can leave you trapped. That is what I see happening here. There were alot of reversals and divergences before this sell off today. I documented this condition over the past 2 weeks in my blog.

The rally in Gold came just as the uptrend was being questioned. The Egypt thing comes at just the right time to keep you long Gold. This Gold rally is not a real one it is just a snap back to run the shorts and keep the longs clinging on to their Gold. The oil market also broke on this last sell off and its rally today is the same thing that is going on in Gold.

My industry groups list flipped to minus 3 and there are only 3 groups up now. That is almost enough for me to call a top but I will wait for more confirmation. Emerging markets also broke down today. Brazil is now at the 200 day and has caught up with China. The world economy is creaking and the financial markets are starting to show it. I will add to my Gold short on Gold strength next week. I bought the EDZ this AM at 21.50. I will start to my SCO position next week as Oil snaps back

Mikey

S&P and Nasdaq hit 2 year highs

DJIA 11985.44 +8.25 SPX  1296.63 +5.45 NASDAQ 2739.50 +20.25  
DJT 5106.75 +56.16  413.39 -1.19 VIX 16.64  
US Gov rates: 6 mo .173%  2 yr .625% 10 yr 3.41 30 yr  4.58 +.09
Gold 1330.00 -2.30  Silver 27.13 +.32 Copper 4.27 +.04 Platinum 1796.90 +7.60
Oil87.33 +1.14 RBOB 2.46 +.09 Nat Gas 4.48 +.01
Aussie 1.0005 +.009 EURO 1.3635 +.0007 Pound 1.5805 +.0175
USD Index 78.03 -.11 DBC 27.98 +.61
Days to option expiration: 22

Long Term Opinions:

US Bonds: Major long term top forming. .... Current trend down
Muni Markets: Rough times ahead: Current trend down
Stocks: Secondary bear market rally ending......  Current trend up 
Gold: Primary top forming crash expected.....  Current trend down
Oil : Secondary bear market rally ending..... Current Trend down 1-24
Commodities: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend up weakening
Real Estate: Bottoming ..... Current trend down

US Dollar: Major long term bottom forming .....Current Trend down 1-18
US Economy: Double dip coming .....Current trend up

Emerging Markets: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend down
Emerging Markets Debt: A disaster.... Current trend down
World economy: Current trend slowing
World political environment: Tension, aggravated

Where's Waldo: Waldo is buying Gold, Foreign Bonds and Emerging Markets.

Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term up 12-6 11362
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
Mikey current trend opinion: 1-21 (DJI 11871) The caution light is on for this uptrend :
IBD : 1- 26 Uptrend resumes



Oil upside breakout 12-1-10 @87.42 USO 37.29
Gold upside breakout 9-22-10 @1283.50 GLD 123.11
Dollar Index breakdown 9-21-10 @81.17  UUP 23.52

Short Term Trading Indicators

Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) .93
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS).72
10 day average .74
Ratio Put Premiums/Call Premium  (extremes .60/ 1.54) .
Put Premium 10 day average .4
Sentiment Total Score: Put/call + premium ratio = 
10 day Sentiment Total Score: Put/call + premium ratio =
Daily-Weekly=
Williams %R 12 day -.1.93 weekly -.73
Bulls 56 Bears 20.9 Bull/Bear ratio 2.67
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 10 Weekly 10 (1 low, 10 max) 20
DJIA MACD 131.60  up/Positive cross 1-18
NYSE New Highs 249 (Lagging)New Lows 9
NASDAQ New Highs 157(Lagging) New Lows 13
NYSE Advance-Decline +1179  NASDAQ Advance-Decline +1346
Mikey A/D line.(from 9/17/10). NYSE 17814 ( New High) NASDAQ +7708 (Lagging)
NYSE % above 200 day ave  %

Support: 1220 SPX, 11258 DJIA Breakout 9/20
Resistance: 1305 SPX; 11867 DJIA
Downside reversal 1207 SPX, DJIA 11200, NASDAQ 2550

Comments:
12-3 MACD Positive cross
IBD market in confirmed uptrend
12-6 Power numbers turn positive
Mikey short term up
12-7 Extermely low sentiment numbers...very overbought
Possible Metals reversal
Conclusions: Upside Price trend resumes 
12-14 AD line and NH/NL do not confirm DJI new high
New lows hit a 1 month high
30 year bonds return to April lows (amid Fed buying??????)
12-15 IBD Market under pressure
12-17 Gold MACD second negative cross RSI 46
New highs, AD line non confirm new high in DJIA
Options expire
12-20 Nasdaq rallies to new high for 3rd straight day.
12-21 IBD  market in confirmed uptrend
12-27 New highs in A/D lines for both N/H N/L lagging
12-31 Negative MACD cross
1-3 New highs on averages and A/D line N/H N/L Still off Nov 4 highs
1-4 Gold drops $44 Oil 2.17 Commodities showing weakness
Market sells off on higher volume DJIA up
Dollar holds 50 day average turns up
1-7 Foreign markets showing weakness. India in a downtrend
Dollar nears intermediate reversal levels up
Bad news in Europe surfaces again
1-10 MACD Negative cross
World markets give sell signal
1-12 New highs in DJI and NASDAQ confirmd by AD Line.
1-13 New lows expand on NYSE to 111
1-14 New highs confirmed by AD line
1-18 AAPL blows away earnings
1-19 Big distribution day NYSE 1646 net declines Nasdaq 1758 net declines
1-20 Google blows away earnings estimate
1-20 IBD goes to market under pressure
1-20 AAPL selling off on big volume
1-21 Mikey Caution light is on for this uptrend
1-21 Google stocks reverse lower on big volume
Options expire
1-25 Consumer confidence strong, State of the Union message..overhall taxes
1-26 IBD Uptrend resumes, S&P, NASDAQ 2 year highs..Fed meets no changes Assets rally

Moving Averages

5 day 11927 Rising/Price above
20 day 11733 Rising/ Price above 
50 day 11196 Rising/Price above
200 day 10812 Rising/Price above
20 week 11239 Rising/Price above
50 week 10765 Rising/Price above
90 week 10218 Rising/Price above
200 week 10908 Flat/Price above

World Markets (Power Numbers) Ave score 48
DJIA 68 Emer Mkts 32 China 38, Brazil 33 Europe 46  Russia 50  Japan 59 Korea 42, India 38, Australia 51  Germany 65, Spain 74  UK 30

Commodities (Power Numbers)
Oil 35, Nat Gas 44, Gasoline 49,
Gold 38, Copper 37,  Silver 29, Platinum 56
Grains 47 DBC 62


Currencies (Power Numbers)
USD 34, Aussie 38 Euro 67 , Brit Pd 66, Yuan 45, Yen 70

US Industry Groups (relative strength) Ave Score 58
11 up, 21 Neutral, Downtrend 1 Score +10
Homebuilders (XHB) 65,  Real Estate (IYR) 65, Finance (XLF) 58, Insurance (IAK) 63 , Broker/Dealers ( IAI) 58, Retail (XRT) 44, Consumer Disc (XLY) 62, Telecom (IYZ) 58, Consumer Staple (XLP) 62, Health (XLV) 57, Pharma (IHE) 52, Biotech (PBE ) 52, Transports (IYT) 50 Aerospace (ITA) 74, Shipping (SEA) 31, Airlines ($XAL) 48, ,Utilities (XLU) 61 , Metals and Mining( XME) 57, Copper (COPX) 51, Nat Gas Production (FCG ) 65, Oil Expl and Prod (IEO)62 Oil Service (OIH) 69,  Coal (KOL) 52,  Energy (XLE) 71, Gold Miners (GDX) 41, Steel  (SLX) 62, Basic Mat (XLB) 59, AgriBusiness (MOO) 59, Tech (XLK) 69, Semiconductors (SMH) 68, Software (SWH) 67 Networking (PXQ) 48, Internet (FDN) 47

Bonds (Relative Strength)

 (1 up, 1 down, 7 neutral) Score 0

MUB (Natl Muni) 54 NCA(Ca Muni) 48 

BND (Total Bond Index) 46 BWX (International Treas Bonds) 60, PCY (Emerg Mkt Debt) 36 TLT (20+ US Treasuries) 43, IEF ( 10 yr Treasuries) 45, PFF (US preferred) 58, HYG (High Yield) 67

The Fed met and said they would not change anything. The risk trade popped up again today.Average for the NAS and S&P made 2 year highs. IBD went to market resumes uptrend. I am still cautious. I am not buying short ETF other than Gold Silver and Oil. They all bounced on the Fed new today.
The dollar is being held back to fascilitate the Euro bond rally. Look for a sharp bounce in Gold and Silver.
.

Mikey

Get ready for cheaper Gas at the pump

DJIA 11977.19 -3.33 SPX  1291.18 +.34 NASDAQ 2719.25 +1.70
DJT 5050.59 -25.93  DJU 414.58 -1.01 VIX 17.59
US Gov rates: 6 mo .173%  2 yr .6289% 10 yr 3.35 -.05 30 yr  4.49 -.06
Gold 1332.30 -12.20 Silver 26.81 -.50 Copper 4.23 -.13 Platinum 1789.30 -30.30
Oil 86.19 -1.71 RBOB 2.37 -.06 Nat Gas 4.47 -.09
Aussie .9996 -.0018  EURO 1.3628 +.0036 Pound 1.5728 -0180
USD Index 78.14 -.04 DBC 27.36 -.35
Days to option expiration: 22

Long Term Opinions:

US Bonds: Major long term top forming. .... Current trend down
Muni Markets: Rough times ahead: Current trend down
Stocks: Secondary bear market rally ending......  Current trend up 
Gold: Primary top forming crash expected.....  Current trend down
Oil : Secondary bear market rally ending..... Current Trend down 1-24
Commodities: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend up weakening
Real Estate: Bottoming ..... Current trend down

US Dollar: Major long term bottom forming .....Current Trend down 1-18
US Economy: Double dip coming .....Current trend up

Emerging Markets: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend down
Emerging Markets Debt: A disaster.... Current trend down
World economy: Current trend slowing
World political environment: Tension, aggravated

Where's Waldo: Waldo is buying Gold, Foreign Bonds and Emerging Markets.

Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term up 12-6 11362
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
Mikey current trend opinion: 1-21 (DJI 11871) The caution light is on for this uptrend :
IBD : 1-20 Market under pressure


Oil upside breakout 12-1-10 @87.42 USO 37.29
Gold upside breakout 9-22-10 @1283.50 GLD 123.11
Dollar Index breakdown 9-21-10 @81.17  UUP 23.52

Short Term Trading Indicators

Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) .89 (market very OB )
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS).72
10 day average .72
Ratio Put Premiums/Call Premium  (extremes .60/ 1.54) .
Put Premium 10 day average .
Sentiment Total Score: Put/call + premium ratio = 
10 day Sentiment Total Score: Put/call + premium ratio =
Daily-Weekly=
Williams %R 12 day -.1.93 weekly -.73
Bulls 56 Bears 20.9 Bull/Bear ratio 2.67
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 10 Weekly 10 (1 low, 10 max) 20
DJIA MACD 1.3304 up/Positive cross 1-18
NYSE New Highs 109 New Lows 18
NASDAQ New Highs 58 New Lows 22
NYSE Advance-Decline +224  NASDAQ Advance-Decline -118
Mikey A/D line.(from 9/17/10). NYSE 16632 NASDAQ +6362
NYSE % above 200 day ave  %

Support: 1220 SPX, 11258 DJIA Breakout 9/20
Resistance: 1305 SPX; 11867 DJIA
Downside reversal 1207 SPX, DJIA 11200, NASDAQ 2550

Comments:
12-3 MACD Positive cross
IBD market in confirmed uptrend
12-6 Power numbers turn positive
Mikey short term up
12-7 Extermely low sentiment numbers...very overbought
Possible Metals reversal
Conclusions: Upside Price trend resumes 
12-14 AD line and NH/NL do not confirm DJI new high
New lows hit a 1 month high
30 year bonds return to April lows (amid Fed buying??????)
12-15 IBD Market under pressure
12-17 Gold MACD second negative cross RSI 46
New highs, AD line non confirm new high in DJIA
Options expire
12-20 Nasdaq rallies to new high for 3rd straight day.
12-21 IBD  market in confirmed uptrend
12-27 New highs in A/D lines for both N/H N/L lagging
12-31 Negative MACD cross
1-3 New highs on averages and A/D line N/H N/L Still off Nov 4 highs
1-4 Gold drops $44 Oil 2.17 Commodities showing weakness
Market sells off on higher volume DJIA up
Dollar holds 50 day average turns up
1-7 Foreign markets showing weakness. India in a downtrend
Dollar nears intermediate reversal levels up
Bad news in Europe surfaces again
1-10 MACD Negative cross
World markets give sell signal
1-12 New highs in DJI and NASDAQ confirmd by AD Line.
1-13 New lows expand on NYSE to 111
1-14 New highs confirmed by AD line
1-18 AAPL blows away earnings
1-19 Big distribution day NYSE 1646 net declines Nasdaq 1758 net declines
1-20 Google blows away earnings estimate
1-20 IBD goes to market under pressure
1-20 AAPL selling off on big volume
1-21 Mikey Caution light is on for this uptrend
1-21 Google stocks reverse lower on big volume

 Options expire

Moving Averages

5 day 11895 Rising/Price above
20 day 11733 Rising/ Price above 
50 day 11479 Rising/Price above
200 day 10807 Rising/Price above
20 week 11239 Rising/Price above
50 week 10765 Rising/Price above
90 week 10218 Rising/Price above
200 week 10908 Flat/Price above

World Markets (Power Numbers) Ave score 44
DJIA 68 Emer Mkts 25 China 38, Brazil 27 Europe 45  Russia 51  Japan 55 Korea 42, India 32, Australia 41  Germany 56, Spain 71  UK 32
Commodities (Power Numbers)
Oil 26, Nat Gas 42, Gasoline 44,
Gold 29, Copper 28,  Silver 22, Platinum 51
Grains 41 DBC 54


Currencies (Power Numbers)
USD 39, Aussie 41 Euro 63 , Brit Pd 65, Yuan 42, Yen 66

US Industry Groups (relative strength) Ave Score 53
10 up, 20 Neutral, Downtrend 3 Score +7

Homebuilders (XHB) 58,  Real Estate (IYR) 64, Finance (XLF) 58, Insurance (IAK) 61 , Broker/Dealers ( IAI) 54, Retail (XRT) 45, Consumer Disc (XLY) 54, Telecom (IYZ) 50, Consumer Staple (XLP) 67, Health (XLV) 60, Pharma (IHE) 49, Biotech (PBE ) 43, Transports (IYT) 43 Aerospace (ITA) 74, Shipping (SEA) 31, Airlines ($XAL) 41, ,Utilities (XLU) 66 , Metals and Mining( XME) 47, Copper (COPX) 45, Nat Gas Production (FCG ) 56, Oil Expl and Prod (IEO)56 Oil Service (OIH) 58,  Coal (KOL) 43,  Energy (XLE) 63, Gold Miners (GDX) 28, Steel  (SLX) 53, Basic Mat (XLB) 49, AgriBusiness (MOO) 53, Tech (XLK) 66, Semiconductors (SMH) 66, Software (SWH) 66 Networking (PXQ) 38, Internet (FDN) 42

Bonds (Relative Strength)

 (1 up, 1 down, 7 neutral) Score 0

MUB (Natl Muni) 49 NCA(Ca Muni) 50 

BND (Total Bond Index) 51 BWX (International Treas Bonds) 60, PCY (Emerg Mkt Debt) 36 TLT (20+ US Treasuries) 49, IEF ( 10 yr Treasuries) 50, PFF (US preferred) 57, HYG (High Yield) 64

US Gasoline

Starting to break like the rest.


Mikey

Market hangs on as commodities and Foreign markets weaken

DJIA 11980.52 +108.58 SPX  1290.81 +7.49 NASDAQ 2717.55 +28.01
DJT 5076.52 +30.90 DJU 415.59 +2.25 VIX 17.65  
US Gov rates: 6 mo .162%  2 yr .625% 10 yr 3.40 30 yr  4.55 -.03
Gold 1344.50 +2.60 Silver 27.31 -.19 Copper 4.34 +.03 Platinum 1819.60 -11.10
Oil 87.87 -.23 RBOB 2.43 -.05 Nat Gas 4.58 -.14
Aussie 1.0014 +.0090 EURO 1.3592 +.0029 Pound 1.5908 -.0006
USD Index 78.18 +.06 DBC 27.72 -.24
Days to option expiration: 23

Long Term Opinions:

US Bonds: Major long term top forming. .... Current trend down
Muni Markets: Rough times ahead: Current trend down
Stocks: Secondary bear market rally ending......  Current trend up 
Gold: Primary top forming crash expected.....  Current trend down
Oil : Secondary bear market rally ending..... Current Trend down 1-24
Commodities: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend up weakening
Real Estate: Bottoming ..... Current trend down

US Dollar: Major long term bottom forming .....Current Trend down 1-18
US Economy: Double dip coming .....Current trend up

Emerging Markets: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend down
Emerging Markets Debt: A disaster.... Current trend down
World economy: Current trend slowing
World political environment: Tension, aggravated

Where's Waldo: Waldo is buying Gold, Foreign Bonds and Emerging Markets.

Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term up 12-6 11362
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
Mikey current trend opinion: 1-21 (DJI 11871) The caution light is on for this uptrend :
IBD : 1-20 Market under pressure


Oil upside breakout 12-1-10 @87.42 USO 37.29
Gold upside breakout 9-22-10 @1283.50 GLD 123.11
Dollar Index breakdown 9-21-10 @81.17  UUP 23.52

Short Term Trading Indicators

Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) .89 (market very OB )
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS).
10 day average .
Ratio Put Premiums/Call Premium  (extremes .60/ 1.54) .
Put Premium 10 day average .
Sentiment Total Score: Put/call + premium ratio = 
10 day Sentiment Total Score: Put/call + premium ratio =
Daily-Weekly=
Williams %R 12 day -.52, weekly -.34
Bulls 56 Bears 20.9 Bull/Bear ratio 2.67
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 10 Weekly 10 (1 low, 10 max) 20
DJIA MACD 126.77 up/Positive cross 1-18
NYSE New Highs 134 New Lows 17
NASDAQ New Highs 79 New Lows 18
NYSE Advance-Decline +1232  NASDAQ Advance-Decline +782
Mikey A/D line.(from 9/17/10). NYSE 16411 NASDAQ +6480
NYSE % above 200 day ave  %

Support: 1220 SPX, 11258 DJIA Breakout 9/20
Resistance: 1305 SPX; 11867 DJIA
Downside reversal 1207 SPX, DJIA 11200, NASDAQ 2550

Comments:
12-3 MACD Positive cross
IBD market in confirmed uptrend
12-6 Power numbers turn positive
Mikey short term up
12-7 Extermely low sentiment numbers...very overbought
Possible Metals reversal
Conclusions: Upside Price trend resumes 
12-14 AD line and NH/NL do not confirm DJI new high
New lows hit a 1 month high
30 year bonds return to April lows (amid Fed buying??????)
12-15 IBD Market under pressure
12-17 Gold MACD second negative cross RSI 46
New highs, AD line non confirm new high in DJIA
Options expire
12-20 Nasdaq rallies to new high for 3rd straight day.
12-21 IBD  market in confirmed uptrend
12-27 New highs in A/D lines for both N/H N/L lagging
12-31 Negative MACD cross
1-3 New highs on averages and A/D line N/H N/L Still off Nov 4 highs
1-4 Gold drops $44 Oil 2.17 Commodities showing weakness
Market sells off on higher volume DJIA up
Dollar holds 50 day average turns up
1-7 Foreign markets showing weakness. India in a downtrend
Dollar nears intermediate reversal levels up
Bad news in Europe surfaces again
1-10 MACD Negative cross
World markets give sell signal
1-12 New highs in DJI and NASDAQ confirmd by AD Line.
1-13 New lows expand on NYSE to 111
1-14 New highs confirmed by AD line
1-18 AAPL blows away earnings
1-19 Big distribution day NYSE 1646 net declines Nasdaq 1758 net declines
1-20 Google blows away earnings estimate
1-20 IBD goes to market under pressure
1-20 AAPL selling off on big volume
1-21 Mikey Caution light is on for this uptrend
1-21 Google stocks reverse lower on big volume

 Options expire

Moving Averages

5 day 11867 Rising/Price above
20 day 11712 Rising/ Price above 
50 day 11465 Rising/Price above
200 day 10784 Rising/Price above
20 week 11239 Rising/Price above
50 week 10765 Rising/Price above
90 week 10218 Rising/Price above
200 week 10908 Flat/Price above

World Markets (Power Numbers) Ave score 50
DJIA 68 Emer Mkts 31 China 46, Brazil 34 Europe 63  Russia 50  Japan 55 Korea 49, India 37, Australia 47  Germany 55, Spain 74  UK 38

Commodities (Power Numbers)
Oil 31, Nat Gas 52, Gasoline 52,
Gold 30, Copper 38,  Silver 22, Platinum 47
Grains 47 DBC 60


Currencies (Power Numbers)
USD 39, Aussie 32 Euro 58 , Brit Pd 72, Yuan 44, Yen 59

US Industry Groups (relative strength) Ave Score 54
11 up, 20 Neutral, Downtrend 2 Score +9
Homebuilders (XHB) 57,  Real Estate (IYR) 59, Finance (XLF) 59, Insurance (IAK) 56 , Broker/Dealers ( IAI) 59, Retail (XRT) 44, Consumer Disc (XLY) 60, Telecom (IYZ) 46, Consumer Staple (XLP) 64, Health (XLV) 60, Pharma (IHE) 49, Biotech (PBE ) 47, Transports (IYT) 46 Aerospace (ITA) 71, Shipping (SEA) 36, Airlines ($XAL) 43, ,Utilities (XLU) 68 , Metals and Mining( XME) 46, Copper (COPX) 49, Nat Gas Production (FCG ) 63,Oil Expl and Prod (IEO) 62 Oil Service (OIH) 56,  Coal (KOL) 42,  Energy (XLE) 66, Gold Miners (GDX) 29, Steel  (SLX) 53, Basic Mat (XLB) 49, AgriBusiness (MOO) 54, Tech (XLK) 64, Semiconductors (SMH) 67, Software (SWH) 72 Networking (PXQ) 41, Internet (FDN) 44

Bonds (Relative Strength)

 (1 up, 1 down, 7 neutral) Score 0

MUB (Natl Muni) 50 NCA(Ca Muni) 46 

BND (Total Bond Index) 46 BWX (International Treas Bonds) 61, PCY (Emerg Mkt Debt) 38 TLT (20+ US Treasuries) 44, IEF ( 10 yr Treasuries) 46, PFF (US preferred) 54, HYG (High Yield) 64

Weakness in the Gold miners is spreading to other mining groups. Shipping and air transportation are weakening with international markets particularly the Far East. Gold, Silver, and now Copper are in sell mode. Oil is just started to join.  In relative terms the US economy is stronger than most of the world which means that things in the world economy are definitely slowing. Bonds are shwing some signs of life but I think it is premature as I think the Muni scam is coming.

The market rally today was the first day out of expirations and they took the air out of the puts from last week. The rally was on low volume and new highs and the A/D line is still off of its highs. This rally looks tired but still no trend break.

Mikey

Market internals show weakness spreading Caution light is on

DJIA 11871.84 +49.04 SPX  1283.35 +3.09 NASDAQ 2689.54 -14.95
DJT 5045.62 -35.20  DJU 413.34 -.37  VIX 18.47
US Gov rates: 6 mo .183%  2 yr .6128 % 10 yr 3.40 -.03 4.56 -.03
Gold 1341.90 -4.60 Silver 27.50 +.03 Copper 4.31 +.03  Platinum 1830.70 +13.40
Oil 89.10 -.49 RBOB 2.48 +.06 Nat Gas 4.72 +.03
Aussie .9924 +.0025 EURO 1.3562 +.0142 Pound 1.5714 +.0107
USD Index 78.12 +.14  DBC 27.96 +.28  
Days to option expiration: Options expire today

Long Term Opinions:

US Bonds: Major long term top forming. .... Current trend down
Muni Markets: Rough times ahead: Current trend down
Stocks: Secondary bear market rally ending......  Current trend up 
Gold: Primary top forming crash expected.....  Current trend down
Oil : Secondary bear market rally ending..... Current trend up weakening
Commodities: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend up weakening
Real Estate: Bottoming ..... Current trend down

US Dollar: Major long term bottom forming .....Current Trend down 1-18
US Economy: Double dip coming .....Current trend up

Emerging Markets: Bear market rally ending..... Current trend down
Emerging Markets Debt: A disaster.... Current trend down
World economy: Current trend slowing
World political environment: Tension, aggravated

Where's Waldo: Waldo is buying Gold, Foreign Bonds and Emerging Markets.

Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term up 12-6 11362
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Up 09/03/10 10477
Mikey Long term trend: UP 10/13/10 11052
Mikey current trend opinion: 1-21 (DJI 11871) The caution light is on for this uptrend : divergences, weak action in leadership, at major resistence area, showing weakness from extreme overbought condition
IBD : 1-20 Market under pressure


Oil upside breakout 12-1-10 @87.42 USO 37.29
Gold upside breakout 9-22-10 @1283.50 GLD 123.11
Dollar Index breakdown 9-21-10 @81.17  UUP 23.52

Short Term Trading Indicators

Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) .86 (market very OB )
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS).75
10 day average .74
Ratio Put Premiums/Call Premium  (extremes .60/ 1.54) .66
Put Premium 10 day average .54
Sentiment Total Score: Put/call + premium ratio = 1.41
10 day Sentiment Total Score: Put/call + premium ratio =1.28
Daily-Weekly=+.13
Williams %R 12 day -9.71, weekly -3.29
Bulls 56 Bears 20.9 Bull/Bear ratio 2.67
Mikey Thrust indicator: Daily 9 Weekly 10 (1 low, 10 max) 19, -1
DJIA MACD 117.40 flat /Positive cross 1-18
NYSE New Highs 81 New Lows 12
NASDAQ New Highs 60 New Lows 21
NYSE Advance-Decline +154  NASDAQ Advance-Decline -476
Mikey A/D line.(from 9/17/10). NYSE 15179 NASDAQ +5698
NYSE % above 200 day ave  76%

Support: 1220 SPX, 11258 DJIA Breakout 9/20
Resistance: 1305 SPX; 11867 DJIA
Downside reversal 1207 SPX, DJIA 11200, NASDAQ 2550

Comments:
12-3 MACD Positive cross
IBD market in confirmed uptrend
12-6 Power numbers turn positive
Mikey short term up
12-7 Extermely low sentiment numbers...very overbought
Possible Metals reversal
Conclusions: Upside Price trend resumes 
12-14 AD line and NH/NL do not confirm DJI new high
New lows hit a 1 month high
30 year bonds return to April lows (amid Fed buying??????)
12-15 IBD Market under pressure
12-17 Gold MACD second negative cross RSI 46
New highs, AD line non confirm new high in DJIA
Options expire
12-20 Nasdaq rallies to new high for 3rd straight day.
12-21 IBD  market in confirmed uptrend
12-27 New highs in A/D lines for both N/H N/L lagging
12-31 Negative MACD cross
1-3 New highs on averages and A/D line N/H N/L Still off Nov 4 highs
1-4 Gold drops $44 Oil 2.17 Commodities showing weakness
Market sells off on higher volume DJIA up
Dollar holds 50 day average turns up
1-7 Foreign markets showing weakness. India in a downtrend
Dollar nears intermediate reversal levels up
Bad news in Europe surfaces again
1-10 MACD Negative cross
World markets give sell signal
1-12 New highs in DJI and NASDAQ confirmd by AD Line.
1-13 New lows expand on NYSE to 111
1-14 New highs confirmed by AD line
1-18 AAPL blows away earnings
1-19 Big distribution day NYSE 1646 net declines Nasdaq 1758 net declines
1-20 Google blows away earnings estimate
1-20 IBD goes to market under pressure
1-20 AAPL selling off on big volume
1-21 Mikey Caution light is on for this uptrend
1-21 Google stocks reverse lower on big volume

 Options expire

Moving Averages

5 day 11872 Rising/Price above
20 day 11691 Rising/ Price above 
50 day 11452 Rising/Price above
200 day 10797 Rising/Price above
20 week 11239 Rising/Price above
50 week 10765 Rising/Price above
90 week 10218 Rising/Price above
200 week 10908 Flat/Price above

World Markets (Power Numbers) Ave score 49
DJIA 58 Emer Mkts 29 China 51, Brazil 33 Europe 63  Russia 57  Japan 54 Korea 49, India 37, Australia 45  Germany 55, Spain 73  UK 38

Commodities (Power Numbers)
Oil 38, Nat Gas 57, Gasoline 57,
Gold 35, Copper 37,  Silver 26, Platinum 61
Grains 55 DBC 64


Currencies (Power Numbers)
USD 38, Aussie 34 Euro 57 , Brit Pd 89, Yuan 49, Yen 53

US Industry Groups (relative strength) Ave Score 51

10 up, 20 Neutral, Downtrend 3 Score +7

Homebuilders (XHB) 52,  Real Estate (IYR) 57, Finance (XLF) 60, Insurance (IAK) 54 , Broker/Dealers ( IAI) 58, Retail (XRT) 43, Consumer Disc (XLY) 56, Telecom (IYZ) 40, Consumer Staple (XLP) 62, Health (XLV) 61, Pharma (IHE) 44, Biotech (PBE ) 42, Transports (IYT) 42 Aerospace (ITA) 70, Shipping (SEA) 37, Airlines ($XAL) 36, ,Utilities (XLU) 64 , Metals and Mining( XME) 40, Copper (COPX) 47, Nat Gas Production (FCG ) 60,Oil Expl and Prod (IEO) 61 Oil Service (OIH) 57,  Coal (KOL) 41,  Energy (XLE) 64, Gold Miners (GDX) 30, Steel  (SLX) 53, Basic Mat (XLB) 43, AgriBusiness (MOO) 54, Tech (XLK) 56, Semiconductors (SMH) 61, Software (SWH) 67 Networking (PXQ) 41, Internet (FDN) 43

Bonds (Relative Strength)

 (1 up, 1 down, 7 neutral) Score 0

MUB (Natl Muni) 46 NCA(Ca Muni) 42 

BND (Total Bond Index) 47 BWX (International Treas Bonds) 58, PCY (Emerg Mkt Debt) 33 TLT (20+ US Treasuries) 44, IEF ( 10 yr Treasuries) 46, PFF (US preferred) 54, HYG (High Yield) 63

The large caps are holding up while the smaller growth sectors are showing weakness. The NYSE had 175 advances today and the NASDAQ listed 476 declines. The DJIA closed at a new high but the A/D line is
at a point that is 200 points lower. The A/D line on the NASDAQ is at a point where it was in the beginning of December.  In other words, the market averages are diverging and showing a false picture of the broad market.

The Gold, Silver, Copper and oil markets are now in sell mode. The dollar is trying but has not been able to reverse its Sept breakdown. It has taken a back seat to the need to bailout Europe again.  The commodities seem to be following the dollar but in a delayed move. I am thinking that everything including the DJI is going to go to their 200 day averages. Even beloved AAPL is getting questioned about its new competition.

The economic news is just peachy now and Obama has appointed a new jobs Czar, the CEO of GE. That means his economic advisor is an ex Wall Streeter, his Treasury Secretary is ex NY Fed,  and his job Czar is the GE CEO. He is not hiding who he owes his Presidency to,  is he?

The choice of GE CEO Jeff Immelt is interesting. GE received 139 billion in bailouts from the taxpayers in the form of backing GE capital in 2009. The irony in making him the job Czar is that eliminated 18000 jobs at GE despite receiving millions in subsidies  like the 60 million to to build the technology center in Michigan and 455 million to build a hybrid locomotive battery plant in New York.  Will he create new jobs? It doesn't matter they make up the numbers anyway.

The GOP (The Grinch) expect the states and local governments to beg (their words) Congress for relief from their underfunded pension programs soon. Their plan is to deny bailout, and to create a manage bankruptcy bill for the states to "deal" with the problem. Read that to mean trash public pensions and continue to make unions obsolete.

This sounds exactly like what has happened to every industry in the United States since free trade became the economic religion. If the states could only print money like the good old boys in Congress then I guess they could be responsible and not beg. The mantra will be save the states and make those greedy pensioners bow down like the rest of us did.

The financial boys will make tons of money screwing the pensioners believe me. Those Muni bonds should be going up and down like a yo yo. Each crisis will produce will price swings before the public unions crack. Union representation is now 36.2% while the the number is 6.9% in the private sector. The process will now attack the public sector as Obama makes the US a "world competitor" for the new world order. That giant sucking sound will be the money coming out the pensioners pockets no doubt to save the economic recovery. The story seems to heading in that direction.

I updated my profile today. Space limits what I can say but I think you will get the picture.

Mikey