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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Top of range holds Put/Call drops to .33

All trends are pointed up and the DJI is 50 points below the top of the range. All indicators are neutral so it appears that nothing is standing in the way of a new high here. The dollar pulled back today against most currencies today and the Euro is ready to be saved allowing the Fed to destroy the dollar again. In the latest Bull /Bear survey the Bulls have it 47.4 to 29.5 or a 1.60 to 1 ratio. Put/Call is 89 today and 83 for the 10 day which is where it was on Nov 15 just before the 1000 point hit into late November. The Euro drama is suppose to come to an end this week in Brussels so the stage is set for another world saving event.  Gold and Silver are coming to point of a wedge formation and look like they are getting ready to make a big move
Mikey

US Stock Indexes DJI Trading Range 11700 to 12200   Price as % of range 90
Long term trend Up  Intermediate trend UP  Current trend UP
Market conditon :Mikey5 Neutral, Mikey10 Neutral, Mikey20 Neutral


Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 12196.37 +46.24 S/P 500  1261.01 +2.54  
NYSE Comp  7559.71 +20.39  NASDAQ 2649.21 -.35
S/P Small Cap 600 414.39 +.34 Russell 2000 746.14 -.64
DJT 4986.20 +2.28  DJU 447.33 -1.02
US Debt Markets
US Gov rates: 6 mo .0407%  2 yr .2420% 5 Yr .9007% 10 yr 2.04 30 yr 3.06
Ave Mtg rates : 30 Yr 3.98% 30 Yr Rifi 4.06% 15 Yr 3.34% 5/1 ARM 2.92
IEF (US10 yr) 104.27 +.47 TLT (USLT) 117.83 +.56
MUB (NatlMuni) 107.10 +.35 Cal Muni (NCA) 9.25 +.04
Preferred (PFF) 36.33 +.16  HYG (High Yield) 87.58 -.21
BND Total Bond Index 83.10 -.20
Commodities
CRB Commodities Index 310.07 -3.45
Gold 1744.80 +13.00 Silver 32.62 -.11 Copper 3.55 -.03
Platinum 1522 -2.00  Nickel (JJN) 26.03 -.30
Oil 100.49 -.79 RBOB 2.58 -.06 Nat Gas  3.42 -.07
Grains (JJG)41.62 -.18  Livestock 119.77 +.22
Cotton  92.77 +.46 Lumber 231.00 +1.00
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.3364 +.0016 Pound 1.5593 +.0124 Swiss Franc 1.0693 +.0031
Yen  1.2683 +.0006 Aussie 1.0286 +.0035
 Dollar Index 78.55 +.02
World Debt markets
BWX(Intl Treas) 59.58 +.39 PCY(EmerMkt) 27.23 -.05  IBND (Intl Corp) 32.31 +.32



All Markets Current Trends 

World debt markets
US Bonds: 11-16 current trend up
US Natl Muni Markets:: 11-21 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 11-9 current trend down
Intl Corp Bonds 11-9 current trend down
Emerging Markets Debt: 11-21 current trend up
US High Yield 12-7 current trend up
US Preferred Stocks 11-30 current trend neutral
Commodities
Commodity index (Broad based) 11-30 current trend neutral 
Gold: .11-29 current trend up  
Silver: 11-30 current trend neutral
Copper 11-30 current trend up
Platinum 11-17 current trend down
Palladium 12-7current trend up
Nickel 11-1 current trend down
Grain complex 9-19 current trend down   
Sugar 10-31 current trend down
Cotton 10-21 current trend down
Livestock 11-21 current trend neutral
Coffee 9-21 current trend down
Lumber 9-23 current trend down
Agg complex 9-16 current trend down
Oil 10-18 current trend up
Gasoline 12-7 current trend down
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 11-30 current trend up
Europe 12-2 current trend up
China: 10-26  current trend up
Brazil 11-30  current trend up
Japan 11-30 current trend neutral
India 11-9 current trend down
Russia 12-2  current trend up
Emerging Markets: 12-2 current trend up
Total world markets 11-30 current trend up


Currencies markets
US Dollar Index 11-14 current trend up
Aussie Dollar 11-30 current trend up  
Euro 11-14  current trend down
Brit Pd  11-21   current trend down l
Swiss Franc: 10-27  current trend down  
Jap Yen 10-31 current trend down
Canadian Dollar 12-7 current trend up
Mexican Peso 8-3 current trend down
Brazilian Real 11-30 current trend neutral
Indian Rupe 11-21  current trend down



Trend changes today:
World Stocks:
Currencies:,
Commodities: Gasoline to down, Live cattle to down, Palladium to up
World Debt :

Intermediate Term Trends
Oil: Neutral
Gold: Up
Silver: down
Commodities: Down
US Bonds: Up
World Bonds: Down
Emerging Debt: Neutral
Emerging Markets: Down
Dollar:UP
World Stocks: Down 
US Stocks UP



US Stock Market Trends
Mikey Short term  up   11-30 12045
Mikey Intermediate Trend: UP  12-6-11  12150
Mikey Long term UP 12-6-11 12150
NYSE 11-30 Current trend up
NASDAQ 11-30 Current trend up
DJ Utilities: 11-30 Current trend up
Transports: 11-30 current trend up
Russell 2000: 11-30 current trend up 
IBD :11-17  Market in Correction 11770
US markets short term technical trading indicators:
Mikey5 +47 Mikey10 +69 Mikey20 -49 (-135 OS, 0 Neutral,  135 OB)
VIX (OB 10 - OS 40) 28.67,VXZ 65.25
Mikey Int OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS)+45
Put/Call Ratio .89 10 day average .83
Put Premium/Call Premium .84 10 day 1.10
Mutual Fund Purchase/Redemptions  ( 1.5 to .66) 1.07
Bulls 47.4   Bears 29.5  Bull/Bear ratio 1.60
Daily DJIA MACD  +96.91 up/ Positive cross 12-2
Weekly MACD  15.29 up / Positive cross 10-24
NYSE New Highs 95 (12/7-10 429) New Lows (8-8-11 1345 ) 10
NASDAQ New Highs 31 (12-7-10, 352 ) New Lows ( 10-4-11, 755 ) 51
Advance/Declines
Daily NYSE Advance-Decline +163 Nasdaq Advance-Decline -177
Daily Mikey A/D line NYSE (7-7 37567) (8-8 19199) 31341
Daily Mikey A/D line NASDAQ (2-18 10095) (10-3-10-15390) -11433
5 day AD NYSE +1879 NASDAQ +2101 NYSE..(OB +4000 OS -4000)
10 day AD NYSE +3474 (5000 OB-5000 OS) 20 day -3416 (7000 OB -7000 OS)
% above 200 day ave  38%
below 50% indicates intermediate trend down


DJI Moving Averages
5 day 12096  Up/ Price above
20 day 11830  Flat/ Price above
50 day 11665 Up/Price above
90 day 11480 Down/Price above
200 day 11944 Down / Price above
20 week 11522  Down/ Price above
50 week 11948  Up/Price below
90 week 11384  Up Price/above
200 week 10611 Flat / Price above


Daily comments for last 30 days:
11-8 approaching overbought
11-9 Europe breaks dollar rallies stocks sink 389
11-12 Market back above 200 day weaving back and forth on Europe story
11-21 The big news today was that world stocks all broke their up trends are in a downtrend along with the broader commodity index. The only commodity I follow that in in an uptrend is oil as Gold broke its uptrend today. The strength of the dollar is overwhelming the asset markets. The central bankers have a decision to make here which is to pump it up by taking the dollar lower or letting the markets fall.
11-22 all markets in downtrends market oversold Mikey5 -175 Mikey 10 -138
11-23 Dollar strength and weak world assets US Bonds 30 year 2.88%
11-24 Market oversold M5 157 M10 166 M20 126
11-27 Market opens up 300
11-30 Central banks intervene with Fed printing dollars for Europe market rallies 490
12-6 Stalled at the top end of the range.
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