NASDAQ sell signal....Gold may be in big trouble

The dollar rally continues as the central banker stand aside. This is sending every market and every asset class down the drain. China and Brazil turned down today and the Nasdaq also turned down. The DJI the most watched index is masking the decline and has not shown the kind of weakness that the others have shown but I don't think the sell off is far away.   The CRB is in free fall as oil joined the downside party today selling off 5.18. I moved the DJI to Neutral intermediate term trend and neutral current trend.

The dollar is were it was on 1-24-11 and at that time Gold was at 1360, oil was at 75. I am of the opinion that Gold needs to drop to 1360 to play catch up with every other commodity and achieve parity with the dollar where it is now. I think the asset with the biggest down side is Gold. It is also the asset the most people think is the safest.  It reminds me of Oil at 100 in 2008 on its way to 30. This break will break the parabolic rise that Gold has had and it should recapture it whole advance from from it main break out which is 600. Gold was downgrade to intermdiate tern neutral as was oil today.


Key Indicators

US Stock Indexes DJI Current Trading Range 11700 to 12200 Price as % of range 25
Support 1 11700 Support 2 11200 Support 3 10600
Resistence 1 12200 Resistance 2 12400 Resistence 3 12800
Long term trend Up ...signal 12/1/10 11577
Intermediate trend Neutral ...signal 12-14-11  11823
Current trend neutral signal 12-14-11  11823
IBD Current trend 11-17 Market in correction 11577

OB/OS: Mikey5 Oversold, Mikey10 Neutral, Mikey20 Oversold, Mikey50 Neutral
Put/Call day 1.07 10 day .86,  Put Premium 1.17 10 day .94,  
Bull/Bear Ratio 1.49 Mutial Funds Buy/Redeem ratio 1.02
MACD    Daily Positive,Negative cross 12-14 Weekly Positive. Positive cross
VIX 26.04 VXZ 66.95 Mikey Fear 56 (80 OB 20 OS) 
 % Stocks above 200 day ave 30% (above 50% uptrend)


Averages
20 day 11829 Falling/ Price at
50 day 11774 Rising/ Price above
20 week 11514 Falling/ Price above
50 Week 11927 Rising/Price below

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 11823.48 -131.46 S/P 500 1211.82 -13.91
NYSE Comp 7184.75 -92.87 NASDAQ 2539.31 -39.96
S/P Small Cap 395.17 -5.88 Russell 2000 708.46 -9.60
DJT 4757.44 -69.97 DJU 440.77 -4.26
US Debt Markets
US Gov rates: 6 mo .0508%  2 yr .2379% 5 Yr .8427% 10 yr 1.88 30 yr 2.87
Ave Mtg rates : 30 Yr 3.96 % 30 Yr Rifi 4.04% 15 Yr 3.30% 5/1 ARM 2.88
IEF (US 7-10 yr) 105.36 +.44 TLT (20 yr) 121.41 +2.30
MUB (NatlMuni) 107.30 +.19  Cal Muni (NCA) 9.25 -.01
BND Total Bond Index 83.86 +.16
Commodities
CRB Commodities Index 295.29 -10.48   
Gold 1586.90 -66.20 Silver 28.94 -2.31 Copper 3.28 -.15 Platinum 1426.30 -66.00
Oil 94.96 -5.18 RBOB 2.51 -.11 Ethenol 2.06 -.05 Nat Gas 3.13 -.15
Wheat 581.50 -17.50  Soybeans 1106.00 -5.50 Corn 581.25 -11.00
Sugar 22.80 -.64 Livestock 118.75 +.10
Cotton  85.76 -1.06 Lumber 224.70-5.00
S Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.2937 -.0043 Pound 1.5339 -.0010  Swiss Franc 1.0362 -.0077
Yen  1.2621 -.0007 Aussie .9920 -.0101
Dollar Index 80.61 +.57
World Debt markets
BWX(Intl Treas) 58.21 +.03 PCY(EmerMkt) 27.25 +.04 IBND (Intl Corp) 31.45 -.09


All Markets Current Trends 

World debt markets

US Bonds: 12-14  current trend up
US Natl Muni Markets:: 11-21 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 11-9 current trend down
Intl Corp Bonds 11-9 current trend down
Emerging Markets Debt: 11-21 current trend up
US High Yield 12-12 current trend neutral
US Preferred Stocks 11-30 current trend neutral

Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 11-14 current trend up
Aussie Dollar 12-12 current trend down
Euro 11-14 current trend down
Brit Pd 11-21 current trend down
Swiss Franc: 10-27 current trend down
Jap Yen 10-31 current trend down
Canadian Dollar 12-7 current trend down
Mexican Peso 12-12 current trend down 
Brazilian Real 12-12 current trend down
Indian Rupe 11-21 current trend down
Commodity index (Broad based) 11-21 current trend down

Metals
Gold: .12-11  current trend down
Silver: 12-11 current trend down
Copper 12-12 current trend down
Platinum 11-17 current trend down

Palladium 12-14 current trend neutral
Agg, Fiber, Wood

Wheat current trend down
Corn current trend down

Soybeans current trend down
Sugar 10-31 current trend down
Cotton 10-21 current trend down
Livestock 12-7 current trend neutral
Coffee 9-21 current trend down

Lumber 12-14 current trend down
Energy

Oil 12-14 current trend neutral
Heating Oil 12-9 Current trend down
Gasoline 12-7 current trend down
Ethenol 9-23 current trend down
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down

World Stock markets

US Stocks: 12-14 current trend neutral
Europe 12-12 current trend down
China: 12-11 current trend down
Brazil 12-11 current trend down
Japan 12-12  current trend downl
India 11-9 current trend down
Russia 12-9  current trend down
Emerging Markets: 12-11 current trend down
Total world markets 12-11 current trend down

Intermediate Term Trends

Dollar:Up
Oil: Neutral
US Stocks Neutral
Gold: Neutral
US Bonds: Up
Silver: Down
Commodities: Down
World Bonds: Down
Emerging Debt: Neutral
Emerging Markets: Down
World Stocks: Down 

Trend changes today:

World Stocks: China to down, Brazil to down, US to Neutral
Currencies:,
Commodities:Copper down, Lumber down
World Debt :US Treas to up