Posting Times

Posts will be between 8:30 PM to 10:00 PM PST
Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Indicators say traders are not worried

The market is holding near the top end of its trading range. The dollar is also holding its uptrend. The Put/Call ratio ran a very low .39 meaning that the put buying was very low today. The Bull/Bear ratio was 1.59 and edged higher this last week. The OB/OS indicators are all neutral and the Mikey fear is 74 meaning low fear of a sell off now. This can all be summed up by saying that the traders think the Fed is going to hold this market up no matter what happens.

Mikey


Key Indicators
DJI Close 120107
US Stock Indexes DJI Current Trading Range 11700 to 12200 Price as % of range 80
Support 1 11700 Support 2 11200 Support 3 10600
Resistence 1 12200 Resistance 2 12400 Resistence 3 12800
Long term trend Up ...signal 12/1/10 11577
Intermediate trend Up...signal 12-19 12102
Current trend Up ...signal 12-14-11  12102
IBD Current trend 12-20 Market in confirmed uptrend 12103

OB/OS: (100 OB, -100 OS)  Mikey5 (+69) Neutral, Mikey10 (-35) Neutral,
Mikey20 (+25) Neutral, Mikey50 (+46) Neutral
Put/Call day .39 10 day .80,  Put Premium 1.04 10 day 1.17,  
Bull/Bear Ratio 1.59 Mutial Funds Buy/Redeem ratio 1.02
MACD  Daily (+61.79),Negative cross 12-14, Weekly (+47.77), Positive cross 10-24
VIX 21.43  VXZ 62.74 Mikey Fear 74 (80 Low 20 High) 
 % Stocks above 200 day ave 37% (above 50% uptrend)

Averages
20 day 11889/ Flat/Price above
50 day 11848 Flat/ Price above
200 day 11935 Flat/ Price above
20 week 11546 Falling/ Price above
50 Week 11964 Rising/Price above
200 Week 10607 Flat/ Price above

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 12107.74 +4.16 S/P 500 1243.72 -2.42
NYSE Comp 7388.52 +27.55 NASDAQ 2577.97 -25.76  
S/P Small Cap 415.60 +2.03 Russell 2000 740.45 +2.23
DJT 4984.84 +28.97 DJU 458.71 +6.99
US Debt Markets
US Gov rates: 6 mo .0356%  2 yr .2745% 5 Yr .9102% 10 yr 1.96 30 yr 2.99
Ave Mtg rates : 30 Yr 3.93% 30 Yr Rifi 3.99% 15 Yr 3.28% 5/1 ARM 2.83
IEF (US 7-10 yr) 104.81 -.37  TLT (20 yr) 119.31 -1.47
MUB (NatlMuni) 107.92 +.15 Cal Muni (NCA) 9.37 uc
BND Total Bond Index 83.41 -.44
Commodities
CRB Commodities Index 303.90 +2.23  
Gold 1613.60 -10.60  Silver 29.25 -.41 Copper 3.63 +.01 Platinum 1431.70 -7.60  
Oil 98.67 +1.43 RBOB 2.62 +.04 Ethenol 2.14 uc Nat Gas 3.15 +.02
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.2995 -.0032 Pound 1.5555 +.0020 Swiss Franc 1.0545 -.0051
Yen  1.2611 -.0037 Aussie 1.0114 +.0018
Dollar Index 80.02 +.14
World Debt markets
BWX(Intl Treas) 58.88 -.04  PCY(EmerMkt) 27.26 +.02 IBND (Intl Corp) 31.62 -.11



All Markets Current Trends 

World debt markets
US Bonds: 12-14  current trend up
US Natl Muni Markets:: 11-21 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 11-9 current trend down
Intl Corp Bonds 11-9 current trend down
Emerging Markets Debt: 11-21 current trend up
US High Yield 12-12 current trend up
US Preferred Stocks 11-30 current trend neutral

Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 11-14 current trend up
Aussie Dollar 12-12 current trend down
Euro 11-14 current trend down
Brit Pd 11-21 current trend down
Swiss Franc: 10-27 current trend down
Jap Yen 10-31 current trend down
Canadian Dollar 12-7 current trend down
Mexican Peso 12-12 current trend down 
Brazilian Real 12-12 current trend down
Indian Rupe 11-21 current trend down
Commodity index (Broad based) 11-21 current trend down
Metals
Gold: .12-11  current trend down
Silver: 12-11 current trend down
Copper 12-12 current trend down
Platinum 11-17 current trend down
Palladium 12-14 current trend neutral
Agg, Fiber, Wood
Wheat current trend down
Corn current trend down
Soybeans current trend down
Sugar 10-31 current trend down
Cotton 10-21 current trend down
Livestock 12-7 current trend neutral
Coffee 9-21 current trend down
Lumber 12-14 current trend down
Energy
Oil 12-21 current trend up
Heating Oil 12-9 Current trend down
Gasoline 12-21 current trend neutral
Ethenol 9-23 current trend  down
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 12-14 current trend up
Europe 12-12 current trend down
China: 12-11 current trend down
Brazil 12-11 current trend down
Japan 12-12  current trend downl
India 11-9 current trend down
Russia 12-9  current trend down
Emerging Markets: 12-11 current trend down
Total world markets 12-11 current trend down

Intermediate Term Trends

Dollar:Up
Oil: Up
US Stocks Up
Gold: Neutral
US Bonds: Up
Silver: Down
Commodities: Down
World Bonds: Down
Emerging Debt: Neutral
Emerging Markets: Down
World Stocks: Down 

Trend changes today:

World Stocks: 
Currencies:,
Commodities:Oil up, Gasoline neutral
World Debt :High Yield to up


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