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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Gold at 5 month low Silver at 1 year low

The dollar resumed its uptrend today and Gold and Silver made new lows. Stocks pulled back into its 11700 to 12200 trading range with the move up in the dollar, closing down 139 points. All trends are still up and most indicators are rated neutral. Put/call is at a very low .73 on the 10 day and the Mikey Fear is a tame 66. 

The lame duck in the pond is oil which is sitting near its high at 99.36. The full court press is on the shorts now, complete with Iran and its problems with the West. The same thing happened in 2008 before it dropped to 30 bucks. 


Mikey


Key Indicators
DJI Close 12151
US Stock Indexes DJI Current Trading Range 11700 to 12200 Price as % of range 90
Support 1 11700 Support 2 11200 Support 3 10600
Resistence 1 12200 Resistance 2 12400 Resistence 3 12800
Long term trend Up ...signal 12/1/10 11577
Intermediate trend Up...signal 12-19 12102
Current trend Up ...signal 12-14-11  12102
IBD Current trend 12-20 Market in confirmed uptrend 12103

OB/OS: (100 OB, -100 OS)  Mikey5 (+41) Neutral, Mikey10 (+47) Neutral,
Mikey20 (+49) Neutral, Mikey50 (+43) Neutral
Put/Call day .95 10 day .73,  Put Premium 1.09 10 day 1.22,  
Bull/Bear Ratio 1.59 Mutial Funds Buy/Redeem ratio 1.02
MACD  Daily (+105.77),Positive cross 12-22, Weekly (+81.24), Positive cross 10-24
VIX 23.52 VXZ 60.73 Mikey Fear 66 (80 Low 20 High) 
 % Stocks above 200 day ave 38% (above 50% uptrend)

Averages
20 day 12056 Rising/Price above
50 day 11905 Rising/ Price above
200 day 11940 Flat/ Price above
20 week 11599 Falling/ Price above
50 Week 11975 Rising/Price above
200 Week 10608 Flat/ Price above

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 12151.49 -139.94  S/P 500 1249.64 -15.79
NYSE Comp 7396.99 -111.38 NASDAQ 2589.98 -35.22
S/P Small Cap 413.29 -8.98 Russell 2000 735.21 -16.10  
DJT 4974.01 -80.42 DJU 463.28 -3.30
US Debt Markets
US Gov rates: 6 mo .0534%  2 yr .2745% 5 Yr .9151% 10 yr 1.93 30 yr 2.92
Ave Mtg rates : 30 Yr 3.98% 30 Yr Rifi 4.06% 15 Yr 3.29% 5/1 ARM 2.87
IEF (US 7-10 yr) 105.07 +.63 TLT (20 yr) 120.64 +2.19  
MUB (NatlMuni) 108.39 -.01 Cal Muni (NCA) 9.55 +.05
BND Total Bond Index 83.41+.32
Commodities
CRB Commodities Index 305.49 -2.78   
Gold 1564.10 -31.40 SILVER 27.23 -1.51 Copper 3.36 -.05 Platinum 1387.70 -46.20 
 Oil 99.36 -.98 RBOB 2.65 -.03  Nat Gas 3.12 +.01
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.2850 -.0167 Pound 1.5327 -.0219 Swiss Franc 1.0472 -.0099
Yen  1.2638 -.0010 Aussie 1.0116 -.0068
Dollar Index 80.88+.72
World Debt markets
BWX(Intl Treas) 58.55 -.50 PCY(EmerMkt) 27.32 +.03 IBND (Intl Corp) 31.34 -.42


All Markets Current Trends 

World debt markets
US Bonds: 12-14  current trend up
US Natl Muni Markets:: 11-21 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 11-9 current trend down
Intl Corp Bonds 11-9 current trend down
Emerging Markets Debt: 11-21 current trend up
US High Yield 12-12 current trend up
US Preferred Stocks 11-30 current trend neutral

Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 11-14 current trend up
Aussie Dollar 12-12 current trend neutral
Euro 11-14 current trend down
Brit Pd 11-21 current trend down
Swiss Franc: 10-27 current trend down
Jap Yen 10-31 current trend down
Canadian Dollar 12-7 current trend down
Mexican Peso 12-12 current trend down 
Brazilian Real 12-12 current trend down
Indian Rupe 11-21 current trend down
Commodity index (Broad based) 11-21 current trend down
Metals
Gold: .12-11  current trend down
Silver: 12-11 current trend down
Copper 12-12 current trend neutral
Platinum 11-17 current trend down
Palladium 12-14 current trend neutral
Agg, Fiber, Wood
Wheat current trend down
Corn current trend down
Soybeans current trend down
Sugar 10-31 current trend down
Cotton 10-21 current trend down
Livestock 12-7 current trend neutral
Coffee 9-21 current trend down
Lumber 12-14 current trend down
Energy
Oil 12-21 current trend up
Heating Oil 12-9 Current trend down
Gasoline 12-21 current trend up
Ethenol 9-23 current trend  down
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 12-14 current trend up
Europe 12-12 current trend down
China: 12-11 current trend down
Brazil 12-11 current trend down
Japan 12-12  current trend downl
India 11-9 current trend down
Russia 12-9  current trend down
Emerging Markets: 12-11 current trend down
Total world markets 12-11 current trend down

Intermediate Term Trends

Dollar:Up
Oil: Up
US Stocks Up
Gold: Down
US Bonds: Up
Silver: Down
Commodities: Down
World Bonds: Down
Emerging Debt: Neutral
Emerging Markets: Down
World Stocks: Down 

Trend changes today:

World Stocks:  China neutral Brazil Neutral
Currencies:, Canadian neutral
Commodities:Palladium up
World Debt :


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