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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

Euro story worsens Dollar index closes above 80 at 11 month high

The dollar closed at an 11 month high today as the story in Europe deteriorated. The Aussie, the Real and the Peso also turned down. In US markets the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 turned neutral and in the commodities markets copper turned down. They can talk all they want about Europe but it is all tied to a weaker world economy.  The US markets are substantially out performing the World and so is US debt and currency.

Mikey

Key Indicators

US Stock Indexes DJI Current Trading Range 11700 to 12200 Price as % of range 51
Support 1 11700 Support 2 11200 Support 3 10600
Resistence 1 12200 Resistance 2 12400 Resistence 3 12800
Long term trend Up Signal 12/1/10 11577
Intermediate trend UP Signal 12/5/11 12181
Current trend UP Signal 12/2/11 12019
IBD Current trend 11-17 Market in correction 11577

OB/OS: Mikey5 Neutral, Mikey10 Neutral, Mikey20 Neutral, Mikey50 Neutral
Put/Call day .90 10 day .84,  Put Premium 1.07 10 day .94,  
Bull/Bear Ratio 1.60  Mutial Funds Buy/Redeem ratio 1.02
MACD    Daily Positive,Positive cross      Weekly Positive. Positive cross
VIX 25.41 VXZ 66.74 Mikey Fear 58    % Stocks above 200 day ave 30%


Averages
20 day 11843 Falling/ Price above
50 day 11754 Rising/ Price above
20 week 11517 Falling/ Price above
50 Week 11957 Rising/Price above

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 11954.94 -66.45 S/P 500 1225.73 -10.74  
NYSE Comp 7277.62 -85.87 NASDAQ 2579.27
S/P Small Cap 401.05 -7.35 Russell 2000 718.06 -15.09
DJT 4827.41 -79.51 DJU 445.03 +2.32
US Debt Markets
US Gov rates: 6 mo .0508%  2 yr .2379% 5 Yr .8604% 10 yr 1.98 30 yr 3.02
Ave Mtg rates : 30 Yr 3.96 % 30 Yr Rifi 4.03% 15 Yr 3.29% 5/1 ARM 2.88
IEF (US 7-10 yr) 104.92 TLT (20 yr) 119.11 +1.10
MUB (NatlMuni) 107.08 -.13 Cal Muni (NCA) 9.26 -.07 
BND Total Bond Index 83.70 +.21
Commodities
CRB Commodities Index 305.77 +2.91  
Gold 1653.10 =-15.10 Silver 31.25 +.25 Copper 3.43 -.03 Platinum 1492.30 +5.30 Oil 100.14 +3.47 RBOB 2.62 +.06 Ethenol 2.11 uc Nat Gas 3.28 +.03
Wheat 599 +4.75 Soybeans 1113..75 +1.75  Corn 592.25 -1.75
Sugar 23.44 +.15 Livestock 118.65 uc
Cotton  86.82 -.34 Lumber 229.70 uc
S Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.2980 -.0159 Pound 1.5349 -.0111 Swiss Franc 1.0440 -0101 
Yen  1.2628 -.0017 Aussie 1.0021 -.0068
Dollar Index 80.24 +.66
World Debt markets
BWX(Intl Treas) 58.18 -.47 PCY(EmerMkt) 27.21 uc  IBND (Intl Corp) 31.54 -.29


All Markets Current Trends 

World debt markets
US Bonds: 12- 9 current trend neutral
US Natl Muni Markets:: 11-21 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 11-9 current trend down
Intl Corp Bonds 11-9 current trend down
Emerging Markets Debt: 11-21 current trend up
US High Yield 12-12 current trend neutral
US Preferred Stocks 11-30 current trend neutral

Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 11-14 current trend up
Aussie Dollar 12-12 current trend down
Euro 11-14 current trend down
Brit Pd 11-21 current trend down
Swiss Franc: 10-27 current trend down
Jap Yen 10-31 current trend down
Canadian Dollar 12-7 current trend down
Mexican Peso 12-12 current trend down 
Brazilian Real 12-12 current trend down
Indian Rupe 11-21 current trend down

Commodity index (Broad based) 11-21 current trend down
Metals
Gold: .12-11  current trend down
Silver: 12-11 current trend down
Copper 12-12 current trend down
Platinum 11-17 current trend down
Palladium 12-7 current trend up
Agg, Fiber, Wood
Wheat current trend down
Corn current trend down
Soybeans current trend down
Sugar 10-31 current trend down
Cotton 10-21 current trend down
Livestock 12-7 current trend neutral
Coffee 9-21 current trend down
Lumber 9-23 current trend neutral
Energy
Oil 10-18 current trend up
Heating Oil 12-9 Current trend down
Gasoline 12-7 current trend down
Ethenol 9-23 current trend down
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 11-30 current trend up
Europe 12-12 current trend down
China: 12-11 current trend neutral
Brazil 12-11 current trend neutral
Japan 12-12  current trend downl
India 11-9 current trend down
Russia 12-9  current trend down
Emerging Markets: 12-11 current trend down
Total world markets 12-11 current trend neutral
Intermediate Term Trends

Dollar:Up
Oil: Up
US Stocks Up
Gold: Up
US Bonds: Up
Silver: Down
Commodities: Down
World Bonds: Down
Emerging Debt: Neutral
Emerging Markets: Down
World Stocks: Down 

Trend changes today:

World Stocks: Japan down
Currencies:, Peso down, Brazilian Real down, Aussie down
Commodities:Copper down
World Debt :High yield to neutral




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