Posting Times

Posts will be between 8:30 PM to 10:00 PM PST
Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Saturday, December 10, 2011

Euro saved.. again

They saved the Euro again today. The puts ran .99 and the DJI gained 186 so I am quite sure that no one believe the story. That puts the DJI within spitting distance of the 12200 high. My trend indicators and OB/OS indicators say we are up and going higher. The story in the US is one of an economy gaining momentum. That again apparently is not believe yet either.

I have changed my format around to make this blog, hopefully easier to read and to use. The main body of indicators is listed first for the US markets is listed first for quick reference and have eleminiated the raw numbers that I keep to call my trends.


Key Indicators

US Stock Indexes DJI Current Trading Range 11700 to 12200   Price as % of range 97
Support 1 11700 Support 2 11200 Support 3 10600
Resistence 1 12200 Resistance 2 12400 Resistence 3 12800
Long term trend Up Signal 12/1/10 11577
Intermediate trend UP Signal 12/5/11 12181
Current trend UP Signal 12/2/11 12019
IBD Current trend 11-17 Market in correction 11577

OB/OS: Mikey5 Neutral, Mikey10 Overbought, Mikey20 Neutral, Mikey50 Neutral
Put/Call day .99 10 day .82,  Put Premium .94 10 day 1.02,  
Bull/Bear Ratio 1.60  Mutial Funds Buy/Redeem ratio 1.02
MACD    Daily   Positive,Positive cross      Weekly Positive. Positive cross
VIX 26.38 VXZ 65.15 Mikey OB/OS 54   %Stocks above 200 day ave 37%


Averages
20 day 11841 Rising/ Price above
50 day 11685 Rising/ Price above
20 week 11517 Falling/ Price above
50 Week 11946 Rising/Price above

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 12184.26 +186.56  S/P 500  1255.19 +20.84  
NYSE Comp  7502.88 +133.36  NASDAQ 2646.85 +50.47
S/P Small Cap 414.51   Russell 2000 745.40 +22.72
DJT 4957.02 +93.07  DJU 443.93 +5.94
US Debt Markets
US Gov rates: 6 mo .0407%  2 yr .2261% 5 Yr .8878% 10 yr 2.06 30 yr 3.11
Ave Mtg rates : 30 Yr 3.95 % 30 Yr Rifi 4.02% 15 Yr 3.29 % 5/1 ARM 2.91
IEF (US 7-10 yr) 104.08 -.72 TLT (20 yr) 116.71 -2.45
MUB (NatlMuni) 107.18 +.16 Cal Muni (NCA) 9.32 +.03
BND Total Bond Index 83.40 -.20
Commodities
CRB Commodities Index 306.43 -1.52
Gold 1716.80 +3.60 Silver 32.25 +.71 Copper 3.55 +.05
Platinum 1515.80 +9.40  Nickel (JJN) 26.51 +.51   
Oil 99.41 +1.07  RBOB 2.59 +.02 Ethenol 2.11 -.01 Nat Gas 3.31 -.14
Wheat 596.00 -1.00 Soybeans 1107.00 -25.50 Corn 594.24 -6.00
Sugar 23.40 -.73 Coffee 227.75 -.90 Livestock 118.45 -1.15
Cotton  90.40 -.73 Lumber 239.60 +7.20
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.3320 +.0035  Pound 1.5542 +.0030  Swiss Franc 1.0682 +.0020
Yen  1.2704 +.0030 Aussie 1.0227 +.0061 
Dollar Index 78.68 -.23
World Debt markets
BWX(Intl Treas) 59.16 +.12 PCY(EmerMkt) 27.22 -.04 IBND (Intl Corp) 32.32


All Markets Current Trends 

World debt markets
US Bonds: 12- 9 current trend neutral
US Natl Muni Markets:: 11-21 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 11-9 current trend down
Intl Corp Bonds 11-9 current trend down
Emerging Markets Debt: 11-21 current trend up
US High Yield 12-7 current trend up
US Preferred Stocks 11-30 current trend neutral

Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 11-14 current trend up
Aussie Dollar 11-30 current trend neutral
Euro 11-14 current trend down
Brit Pd 11-21 current trend down
Swiss Franc: 10-27 current trend down
Jap Yen 10-31 current trend down
Canadian Dollar 12-7 current trend neutral
Mexican Peso 12-9 current trend neutral
Brazilian Real 11-30 current trend neutral
Indian Rupe 11-21 current trend down

Commodity index (Broad based) 11-21 current trend down
Metals
Gold: .12-9 current trend neutral  
Silver: 11-30 current trend neutral
Copper 11-30 current trend up
Platinum 11-17 current trend down
Palladium 12-7 current trend up
Agg, Fiber, Wood
Wheat current trend down
Corn current trend down
Soybeans current trend down
Sugar 10-31 current trend down
Cotton 10-21 current trend down
Livestock 12-7 current trend neutral
Coffee 9-21 current trend down
Lumber 9-23 current trend neutral improving 
Energy
Oil 10-18 current trend up
Heating Oil 12-9 Current trend down
Gasoline 12-7 current trend down
Ethenol 9-23 current trend down
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 11-30 current trend up
Europe 12-2 current trend neutral
China: 10-26  current trend up
Brazil 11-30  current trend up
Japan 11-30 current trend neutral
India 11-9 current trend down
Russia 12-9  current trend down
Emerging Markets: 12-2 current trend neutral
Total world markets 11-30 current trend up
Intermediate Term Trends

Dollar:Up
Oil: Up
US Stocks Up
Gold: Up
US Bonds: Up
 Silver: Down
Commodities: Down
World Bonds: Down
Emerging Debt: Neutral
Emerging Markets: Down
World Stocks: Down 

Trend changes today:

World Stocks:
Currencies:,
Commodities:
World Debt :




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