Economic story turns up....Market spins its wheels

Jobs numbers were reported as getting better.  It does not matter if those numbers are real or not because that is the report. The dollar rallied and assets went from rally to flat.  The last week the dollar pulled back but still remained in an uptrend.  In a world that treats stocks and commodities as the same thing and where the most important driver is the dollar the fact that the dollar is in a uptrend means that assets may not be out of the woods here. 

The week ended with stocks in a uptrend and the Mikey 5 mildly overbought. The VIX has pulled back to 27.52 with the low 20's being the last top area. The Put/Calls are now in the 80"s and put premium ended the week at .87. In short, this rally smells like a short squeeze but for now the bulls have it.

Mikey

Closing Prices

US Stock Indexes DJI Trading Range 11700 to 12200
Long term trend Neutral  Intermediate trend neutral   Current trend up
Market conditon :Mikey5 overbought, Mikey10 neutral, Mikey20 neutral
DJIA 12019.42 -.61  S/P 500 1244.28 -.30
NYSE Comp 7453.55 +3.12  NASDAQ 2626.93 +.73  
S/P Small Cap 600 408.73 +1.67 Russell 2000 735.02 +4.27
DJT 4946.67 +37.57 DJU 443.63 -4.44
US bonds and interest rates
US Gov rates: 6 mo .0458%  2 yr .2539% 5 Yr  .9151% 10 yr 2.03 30 yr3.02
Ave Mtg rates : 30 Yr 4.02% 30 Yr Rifi 4.10% 15 Yr 3.37% 5/1 ARM 2.93
IEF (US10 yr) 104.13 +.46 TLT (USLT) 118.80 +1.80
MUB (NatlMuni) 106.23 +.37  Cal Muni (NCA) 9.21 -.05
Preferred (PFF) 35.79 +.13 HYG (High Yield) 86.92 +.49
BND Total Bond Index 83.40 +.49
Commodities
CRB Commodities Index 313.55 +.24  
Gold 1751.30 +11.50  Silver 32.68 -.07 Copper 97.62 -.0040  
Platinum 1548.50 -8.70 Nickel (JJN) 25.35 +1.15
Oil 100.96 +.76 RBOB 2.61 +.05 Nat Gas  3.58 -.06
Grains (JJG) 42.05 +.10 Livestock (COW) 30.76 -1.03
Cotton (BAL) 56.72 +.57 Agg complex(JJA) 51.09 -.10
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.3342 -.0069 Pound 1.5481 -.0083 Swiss Franc 107.19 -.0063
Yen 1.2632 -.0047 Aussie 1.0213 -.0005 Dollar Index 78.73 +.29
World Debt markets
BWX(Intl Treas) 58.93 -.06 PCY(EmerMkt) 27.23 +.27  IBNDIntl Corp) 31.86 -.14


All Markets Current Trends 

World debt markets

US Bonds: 11-16 current trend up
US Natl Muni Markets:: 11-21 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 11-9 current trend down
Intl Corp Bonds 11-9 current trend down
Emerging Markets Debt: 11-21 current trend up
US High Yield 11-30 current trend neutral

US Preferred Stocks 11-30 current trend neutral
Commodities

Commodity index (Broad based) 11-30 current trend neutral 
Gold: .11-29 current trend up  
Silver: 11-30 current trend neutral
Copper 11-30 current trend up
Platinum 11-17 current trend down

Palladium 11-17 current trend down
Nickel 11-1 current trend down

Grain complex 9-19 current trend down   

Sugar 10-31 current trend down
Cotton 10-21 current trend down
Livestock 11-21 current trend neutral
Coffee 9-21 current trend down

Lumber 9-23 current trend down
Agg complex 9-16 current trend down

Oil 10-18 current trend up
Gasoline 12-1 current trend neutral
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down

World Stock markets

US Stocks: 11-30 current trend up
Europe 12-2 current trend neutral
China: 10-26  current trend up
Brazil 11-30  current trend neutral
Japan 11-30 current trend neutral
India 11-9 current trend down
Russia 12-2  current trend up
Emerging Markets: 12-2 current trend up
Total world markets 11-30 current trend up


Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 11-14 current trend up
Aussie Dollar 11-30 current trend up  
Euro 11-14  current trend down
Brit Pd  11-21   current trend down l
Swiss Franc: 10-27  current trend down  
Jap Yen 10-31 current trend down
Canadian Dollar 12-2 current trend neutral  
Mexican Peso 8-3 current trend down

Brazilian Real 11-30 current trend neutral
Indian Rupe 11-21  current trend down

Trend changes today:

World Stocks: Emerge mkt up, Brazil up, Russia up, Europe neutral
Currencies:,
Commodities: Gasoline to neutral
World Debt : Emerging mkt up

Intermediate Term Trends
Oil: Neutral
Gold: Up
Silver: down
Commodities: Down
US Bonds: Up
World Bonds: Down
Emerging Debt: Neutral
Emerging Markets: Down
Dollar:UP
World Stocks: Down 
US Stocks Down


US Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term  up   11-30 12045
Mikey Intermediate Trend: Neutral   11-30 12045
Mikey Long term Neutral 8-4-11 11779

NYSE 11-30 Current trend up
NASDAQ 11-30 Current trend up
DJ Utilities: 11-30 Current trend up

Transports: 11-30 current trend up
Russell 2000: 11-30 current trend up 
IBD :11-17  Market in Correction 11770
US markets short term technical trading indicators:

Mikey5 +108 Mikey10 -39 Mikey20 -59 (-135 OS, 0 Neutral,  135 OB)

VIX (OB 10 - OS 40) 27.52 ,VXZ 64.85
Mikey Int OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS)+50
Put/Call Ratio .91 10 day average .88
Put Premium/Call Premium .87 10 day 1.17
Mutual Fund Purchase/Redemptions  ( 1.5 to .66) 1.07
Stocastic Fast D 10 day 62.22 Weekly 60.96
Bulls 44.2   Bears 30.5   Bull/Bear ratio 1.45
Daily DJIA MACD  +30.66  up/ Positive cross 12-2
Weekly MACD -22.72  up / Positive cross 10-24
NYSE New Highs 109 (12/7-10 429) New Lows (8-8-11 1345 ) 12
NASDAQ New Highs 44 (12-7-10, 352 ) New Lows ( 10-4-11, 755 ) 46
Advance/Declines

Daily NYSE Advance-Decline +634 Nasdaq Advance-Decline +510
Daily Mikey A/D line NYSE (7-7 37567) (8-8 19199) 29490
Daily Mikey A/D line NASDAQ (2-18 10095) (10-3-10-15390) -11890
5 day AD NYSE +4335 NASDAQ +2502 NYSE..(OB +4000 OS -4000)
10 day AD NYSE -1958 (5000 OB-5000 OS) 20 day -4136 (7000 OB -7000 OS)
% above 200 day ave  35%

below 50% indicates intermediate trend down

DJI Moving Averages

5 day 11832   up/ Price above
20 day 11819  Flat/ Price above
50 day 11596 up/Price above

90 day 11481 Down/Price above
200 day 11496 Down / Price above
20 week 11551 up/ Price above
50 week 11937  up/Price below
90 week 11384  Up Price/above
200 week 10611 Flat / Price above

Daily comments for last 30 days:

10-21 The intermediate term was upgraded to neutral and the current trend is still up. Stocks break out above the top of their trading range of 11600 close at 11808

10-24 All three Mikey indicators are overbought. The Mikey5 is at 38, the Mikey10 is at 144 and the Mikey20 is at 136. This is unusual and the last time it happened was July 7 and that was a top. The trends are turning positive for world markets. Brazil current trend is now up along with the total world markets indicator. US bonds are now in current trend down and joined its buddy the dollar. I believe these changes are temporary but the trends must be honored.
10-25 another day another almost solved European crisis another dollar down day  160 points. Ho hum
10-27 Euro Deal made stocks rally World stocks turn up US bonds and dollar in downtrend
10-28 Euro party ends now lets look at something else like phony job numbers that's next week
11-1 Stocks closed down 297 at 11657 or at the 20 week average. That was the breakout on 10-21 and was then resistance and now is support. That is also my line in the sand or you may also call it the pivot point.That is the critical area that this battle is being fought. A closetocks closed down 297 at 11657 or at the 20 week average. That was the breakout on 10-21 and was then resistance and now is support. That is also my line in the sand or you may also call it the pivot point.That is the critical area that this battle is being fought. A close below that number would turn the trend down again. Pt/calls ran hot at 1.22
11-8 approaching overbought
11-9 Europe breaks dollar rallies stocks sink 389
11-12 Market back above 200 day weaving back and forth on Europe story
11-21 The big news today was that world stocks all broke their up trends are in a downtrend along with the broader commodity index. The only commodity I follow that in in an uptrend is oil as Gold broke its uptrend today. The strength of the dollar is overwhelming the asset markets. The central bankers have a decision to make here which is to pump it up by taking the dollar lower or letting the markets fall.
11-22 all markets in downtrends market oversold Mikey5 -175 Mikey 10 -138
11-23 Dollar strength and weak world assets US Bonds 30 year 2.88%
11-24 Market oversold M5 157 M10 166 M20 126
11-27 Market opens up 300
11-30 Central banks intervene with Fed printing dollars for Europe marketm rallies 490