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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Monday, December 19, 2011

DJI wiggles its way below 50 day

Stocks are working their way lower as the dollar works its way higher. The DJI closed below its 50 day average now at 11821. The sell signal comes on a close below 11700.  Put/call was low at .68 and the fear indicator is low at 60  

Mikey


Key Indicators
DJI Close 11766
US Stock Indexes DJI Current Trading Range 11700 to 12200 Price as % of range 13
Support 1 11700 Support 2 11200 Support 3 10600
Resistence 1 12200 Resistance 2 12400 Resistence 3 12800
Long term trend Up ...signal 12/1/10 11577
Intermediate trend Neutral ...signal 12-14-11  11823
Current trend Neutral ...signal 12-14-11  11823
IBD Current trend 11-17 Market in correction 11577

OB/OS: (100 OB, -100 OS)  Mikey5 (-72) Neutral, Mikey10 (-91) Neutral,
Mikey20 (-74) Neutral, Mikey50 (+45) Neutral
Put/Call day .68 10 day .82,  Put Premium 1.46 10 day 1.10,  
Bull/Bear Ratio 1.49 Mutial Funds Buy/Redeem ratio 1.02
MACD  Daily (+38.09),Negative cross 12-14, Weekly (+20.47), Positive cross 10-24
VIX 24.92 VXZ 65.02 Mikey Fear 60 (80 Low 20 High) 
 % Stocks above 200 day ave 29% (above 50% uptrend)

Averages
20 day 11832 Falling/ Price below
50 day 11807 Rising/ Price below
200 day 11936 Flat/ Price below
20 week 11512 Falling/ Price above
50 Week 11955 Rising/Price below
200 Week 10606 Flat/ Price above

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 11766.26 -100.13 S/P 500 1205.35 -14.31
NYSE Comp 7142.45 -95.21 NASDAQ 2523.14 -32.19  
S/P Small Cap 1205.35 -14.31 Russell 2000 708.56 -13.49
DJT 4794.31 -111.95  DJU 442.00 -4.15
US Debt Markets
US Gov rates: 6 mo .0407%  2 yr .2430% 5 Yr .8184% 10 yr 1.82 30 yr 2.80
Ave Mtg rates : 30 Yr 3.92% 30 Yr Rifi 4.03% 15 Yr 3.27% 5/1 ARM 2.84
IEF (US 7-10 yr) 106.18 +.40 TLT (20 yr) 123.80 +1.48
MUB (NatlMuni) 107.70 +.09 Cal Muni (NCA) 9.39 +.04
BND Total Bond Index 84.05 uc
Commodities
CRB Commodities Index 295.82 +.82  
Gold 1596.30 Silver 28.88 -.78 Copper 3.31 -.02  Platinum 1413.60 -2.70
Oil 93.92 +.38 RBOB 2.49 +.01 Ethenol 2.11 +.04 Nat Gas 3.10 -.02
Wheat 598.50 +14.75  Soybeans 1138.75 +8.75 Corn 583.00 600.75 +17.75
Sugar 23.09 +.06 Livestock 121.00 +2.50  Cotton  87.05 -.21 Lumber 237.10 +1.90
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.2954 -.0034 Pound 1.5372 -.0026  Swiss Franc 1.0536 -.0012
Yen  1.2619 -.0038 Aussie .9907 -.0082
Dollar Index 80.37 +.12
World Debt markets
BWX(Intl Treas) 58.71 +.10  PCY(EmerMkt) 27.15 +.04  IBND (Intl Corp) 31.73 +.01


All Markets Current Trends 

World debt markets
US Bonds: 12-14  current trend up
US Natl Muni Markets:: 11-21 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 11-9 current trend down
Intl Corp Bonds 11-9 current trend down
Emerging Markets Debt: 11-21 current trend up
US High Yield 12-12 current trend neutral
US Preferred Stocks 11-30 current trend neutral

Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 11-14 current trend up
Aussie Dollar 12-12 current trend down
Euro 11-14 current trend down
Brit Pd 11-21 current trend down
Swiss Franc: 10-27 current trend down
Jap Yen 10-31 current trend down
Canadian Dollar 12-7 current trend down
Mexican Peso 12-12 current trend down 
Brazilian Real 12-12 current trend down
Indian Rupe 11-21 current trend down
Commodity index (Broad based) 11-21 current trend down
Metals
Gold: .12-11  current trend down
Silver: 12-11 current trend down
Copper 12-12 current trend down
Platinum 11-17 current trend down
Palladium 12-14 current trend neutral
Agg, Fiber, Wood
Wheat current trend down
Corn current trend down
Soybeans current trend down
Sugar 10-31 current trend down
Cotton 10-21 current trend down
Livestock 12-7 current trend neutral
Coffee 9-21 current trend down
Lumber 12-14 current trend down
Energy
Oil 12-14 current trend neutral
Heating Oil 12-9 Current trend down
Gasoline 12-7 current trend down
Ethenol 9-23 current trend down
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 12-14 current trend neutral
Europe 12-12 current trend down
China: 12-11 current trend down
Brazil 12-11 current trend down
Japan 12-12  current trend downl
India 11-9 current trend down
Russia 12-9  current trend down
Emerging Markets: 12-11 current trend down
Total world markets 12-11 current trend down
Intermediate Term Trends

Dollar:Up
Oil: Neutral
US Stocks Neutral
Gold: Neutral
US Bonds: Up
Silver: Down
Commodities: Down
World Bonds: Down
Emerging Debt: Neutral
Emerging Markets: Down
World Stocks: Down 

Trend changes today:

World Stocks: 
Currencies:,
Commodities:
orld Debt :



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