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Mikey's Short Term Trading Rules

1) Make up a list of stocks, commodities or ETF's to trade. This list should be names that have good earnings and high relative strength.
2) Monitor this list and throw out the weaker names
3) Buy only stocks or ETF's that are intermediate and daily up (green) and the market is Daily and intermediate term up (green)
4) Buy pullbacks on these stocks to the 20 and 50 day averages
Usually you get 4 to 6 20 day pullback buys and 2 or 3 50 day pullback buys in an intermediate term trend
5) More agressive traders can buy the 7 day average in the first 3 to 8 weeks of the uptrend.
6) Buy pullbacks not runups. A buy should not be easy or exciting but difficult and somewhat scary. DO NOT CHASE
7) Place stop at 5% below the buy price. Do not remove
8) Sell 3 to 5 days after the stock price takes out its most recent 2 week high with at least 15% gains
9) Uptrends that are 12 weeks or more may be ripe for a correction. The first 2 pullbacks to the 50 day are usually safe.
Intermediate term uptrends and downtrends generally last from 8 to 16 weeks with 12 weeks being the norm.
10) Shorting is a viable strategy in downtrends for experienced traders only. In general, reverse the above rules
11) Tweet Mikey @themarketshadow with questions or ideas

Tuesday, December 20, 2011

Central Banks set Bear Trap

Central banks sprung the trap they set the day before. The market closed yesterday below the 50 day average considered by most traders as a sell signal. Today the market gapped open 200 points and smoked the shorts for making that move. The next time the DJI trades below the 50 day I think that the shorts will not be so eager to sell.
Mikey


Key Indicators
DJI Close 12103
US Stock Indexes DJI Current Trading Range 11700 to 12200 Price as % of range 80
Support 1 11700 Support 2 11200 Support 3 10600
Resistence 1 12200 Resistance 2 12400 Resistence 3 12800
Long term trend Up ...signal 12/1/10 11577
Intermediate trend Up...signal 12-19 12102
Current trend Up ...signal 12-14-11  12102
IBD Current trend 12-20 Market in confirmed uptrend 12103

OB/OS: (100 OB, -100 OS)  Mikey5 (+18) Neutral, Mikey10 (-45) Neutral,
Mikey20 (-11) Neutral, Mikey50 (+43) Neutral
Put/Call day .71 10 day .85,  Put Premium 1.30 10 day 1.14,  
Bull/Bear Ratio 1.49 Mutial Funds Buy/Redeem ratio 1.02
MACD  Daily (+61.02),Negative cross 12-14, Weekly (+47.29), Positive cross 10-24
VIX 23.22 VXZ 62.74 Mikey Fear 67 (80 Low 20 High) 
 % Stocks above 200 day ave 36% (above 50% uptrend)

Averages
20 day 11889/ Price above
50 day 11848 Rising/ Price above
200 day 11935 Flat/ Price above
20 week 11546 Falling/ Price above
50 Week 11964 Rising/Price above
200 Week 10607 Flat/ Price above

Closing Prices

US Stocks
DJIA 12102.58 +332.32 S/P 500 1241.30
NYSE Comp 7142.45 -95.21 NASDAQ 2523.14 -32.19  
S/P Small Cap 413,57 +16.40 Russell 2000 738.22 +218.50
DJT 49.55.87 +161.56 DJU 451.72 +9.72
US Debt Markets
US Gov rates: 6 mo .0407%  2 yr .2627% 5 Yr .8926% 10 yr 1.93 30 yr 2.92
Ave Mtg rates : 30 Yr 3.92% 30 Yr Rifi 3.99% 15 Yr 3.28% 5/1 ARM 2.83
IEF (US 7-10 yr) 105.18 -.96  TLT (20 yr) 120.78 -3.09  
MUB (NatlMuni) 107.77 +.07  Cal Muni (NCA) 9.37 -.02
BND Total Bond Index 83.85 -.17
Commodities
CRB Commodities Index 295.82 +.82  
Gold 1624.20 +27.90 Silver 29,66 +.78 Copper 3.38 +.07 Platinum 1439.30 +25.70 
Oil 97.24 +3.19 RBOB 2.58 +.09 Ethenol 2.14 +.03 Nat Gas 3.13 +.03
Sugar 23.49 +.40  Livestock 120.65 -.35 Cotton  86.80 -.25 Lumber 245.00 +7.90
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.3064 +.0121 Pound 1.5537 +.0165 Swiss Franc 1.0596 +.0059
Yen  1.2648 +.0029 Aussie .1.0096 +.0192
Dollar Index 79.88 -.49
World Debt markets
BWX(Intl Treas) 58.92 +.21 PCY(EmerMkt) 27.24 +.09 IBND (Intl Corp) 31.73 uc


All Markets Current Trends 

World debt markets
US Bonds: 12-14  current trend up
US Natl Muni Markets:: 11-21 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 11-9 current trend down
Intl Corp Bonds 11-9 current trend down
Emerging Markets Debt: 11-21 current trend up
US High Yield 12-12 current trend neutral
US Preferred Stocks 11-30 current trend neutral

Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 11-14 current trend up
Aussie Dollar 12-12 current trend down
Euro 11-14 current trend down
Brit Pd 11-21 current trend down
Swiss Franc: 10-27 current trend down
Jap Yen 10-31 current trend down
Canadian Dollar 12-7 current trend down
Mexican Peso 12-12 current trend down 
Brazilian Real 12-12 current trend down
Indian Rupe 11-21 current trend down
Commodity index (Broad based) 11-21 current trend down
Metals
Gold: .12-11  current trend down
Silver: 12-11 current trend down
Copper 12-12 current trend down
Platinum 11-17 current trend down
Palladium 12-14 current trend neutral
Agg, Fiber, Wood
Wheat current trend down
Corn current trend down
Soybeans current trend down
Sugar 10-31 current trend down
Cotton 10-21 current trend down
Livestock 12-7 current trend neutral
Coffee 9-21 current trend down
Lumber 12-14 current trend down
Energy
Oil 12-14 current trend neutral
Heating Oil 12-9 Current trend down
Gasoline 12-7 current trend down
Ethenol 9-23 current trend down
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down

World Stock markets
US Stocks: 12-14 current trend up
Europe 12-12 current trend down
China: 12-11 current trend down
Brazil 12-11 current trend down
Japan 12-12  current trend downl
India 11-9 current trend down
Russia 12-9  current trend down
Emerging Markets: 12-11 current trend down
Total world markets 12-11 current trend down
Intermediate Term Trends

Dollar:Up
Oil: Neutral
US Stocks Up
Gold: Neutral
US Bonds: Up
Silver: Down
Commodities: Down
World Bonds: Down
Emerging Debt: Neutral
Emerging Markets: Down
World Stocks: Down 

Trend changes today:

World Stocks:  US Stocks up
Currencies:,
Commodities:
orld Debt :



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