Strong Dollar and US Bonds rule the world as US markets adjorn for Thanksgiving

The US dollar and US bonds are picking up strength verses a weakening world economy.  International debt and stocks are trading like something very bad is happening to the world economy and the beneficiary is, believe it or not the US debt market. Rates on the 30 year fell to 2.84% and 10 year notes closed at 1.88%.  That is telling me that something is getting out of control.

The DJI was down 236.17 to 11257.55 and all market industries even oil stocks are now in a downtrend. Transports and utilities are also in gear on the downside. The bank group is again getting the stress test applied to see if they can withstand a meltdown. They shifted their loans from the US to overseas when it was thought that the world economy was stand alone. I think that Citi is going to get its butt kicked again and I say let they go this time.

The CRB commoditiies index was nailed another 4.20 and closed at 306.73. Gold eased to 1695.90 -6.50 and Silver closed down 1.07 to 31.88. Oil dropped 1.74 to 96.17 and Copper was down .06 to 3.27. Commodites are in a clear down trend and that makes sense relative to the world slowdown.

To say the least the "risk trade" did not work but I don't think investors realize it. It is getting to be a disaster. and I think Gold and Oil will join this party and then the margin calls will really start to hit.

The Market is over sold with the 5 at -194 the 10 at -135 and the 20 at -88. Put premium spiked up to 1.23 today and Put /call was over 1 to 1.02.  Support is at the August - Sept lows of 10600.  The 200 week is 10615 which held the sell off in August. That area is the jumping off point to a long term downtrend and is extremely important.   Resistence is the the bottom of the last trading range of 11600.  The close of 11257 is below all my major moving averages short and long except the 200 week.

Mikey

Closing Prices

US Stock Indexes
DJIA 11257.55 -236.77 S/P 500 1161.79 -26.25
NYSE Comp 6919.92 -174.97 NASDAQ 2460.08 -61.20
S/P Small Cap 600 375.98 -11.48 Russell 2000 674.34 -21.92
DJT 4564.20 -113.09 DJU 423.96 -6.49
US bonds and interest rates
US Gov rates: 6 mo .0601%  2 yr .2617% 5 Yr  .8152% 10 yr 1.92 30 yr 2.88
Ave Mtg rates : 30 Yr 4.02% 30 Yr Rifi 4.10% 15 Yr 3.37% 5/1 ARM 2.99
IEF (US10 yr) 105.01 +.32 TLT (USLT) 121.39 +1.34
MUB (NatlMuni) 106.45 +.12 Cal Muni (NCA) 9.25 +.04
Preferred (PFF) 36.05 -.13 HYG (High Yield)84.27 -.65 
BND Total Bond Index 83.69 +.09
Commodities
CRB Commodities Index 306.73 -4.20
Gold 1695.20 -6.50  Silver 31.88 -1.07 Copper 3.27 -.06
Platinum 1558.30 -12.70 Nickel (JJN) 24.84 -.27
Oil 96.16 -1.84  RBOB 2.52 -.04  Nat Gas  3.46 +.05
Grains (JJG) 41.34 -.91  Livestock (COW) 31.01 +.07
Cotton (BAL) 56.04 -.70 Agg complex(JJA) 50.63 -.82
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.3287 -.0172 Pound 1.5397 -.0120 Swiss Franc 1.0736 -.0071
Yen 1.2736 -.0061 Aussie .9717 -.0146
Dollar Index 79.35 +.92
World Debt markets
BWX(Intl Treas) 58.34 -.55 PCY(EmerMkt) 26.83 -.12  IBND(Intl Corp) 32.00 -.48



All Markets Current Trends 

World debt markets

US Bonds: 11-16 current trend up
US Natl Muni Markets:: 11-21 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 11-9 current trend down
Intl Corp Bonds 11-9 current trend down
Emerging Markets Debt: 11-21 current trend down
US High Yield 11-21 current trend down

US Preferred Stocks 11-22 current trend down
Commodities

Commodity index (Broad based) 11-21 current trend down 
Gold: .11-21 current trend down  
Silver: 11-17 current trend down
Copper 11-17 current trend down

Platinum 11-17 current trend down
Palladium 11-17 current trend down
Nickel 11-1 current trend down

Grain complex 9-19 current trend down   

Sugar 10-31 current trend down
Cotton 10-21 current trend down
Livestock 11-21 current trend neutral
Coffee 9-21 current trend down

Lumber 9-23 current trend down
Agg complex 9-16 current trend down

Oil 10-18 current trend up
Gasoline 11-21 current trend down
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down

World Stock markets

US Stocks: 11-22 current trend down
Europe 11-9 current trend down
China: 10-26  current trend down
Brazil 10-24  current trend down
Japan 11-1 current trend down
India 11-9 current trend neutral
Russia 11-9 current trend neutral
Emerging Markets: 11-9 current trend down
Total world markets 11-9 current trend down


Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 11-14 current trend up
Aussie Dollar 11-21 current trend down  
Euro 11-14  current trend down
Brit Pd  11-21   current trend down l
Swiss Franc: 10-27  current trend down  
Jap Yen 10-31 current trend down
Canadian Dollar 11-21 current trend down
Mexican Peso 8-3 current trend down

Brazilian Real 11-21 current trend down
Indian Rupe 11-21  current trend down

Trend changes today:

World Stocks:
Currencies:,
Commodities:
World Debt :
Intermediate Term Trends
Oil: Neutral
Gold: Up
Silver: down
Commodities: Down
US Bonds: Up
World Bonds: Down
Emerging Debt: Neutral
Emerging Markets: Down
Dollar:UP
World Stocks: Down 
US Stocks Down


US Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term  down  11-22 11493
Mikey Intermediate Trend: down   11-21 11547
Mikey Long term Neutral 8-4-11 11779

NYSE 10-14 Current trend down
NASDAQ 11-17 Current trend down

DJ Utilities: 11-22 Current trend down
Transports: 11-23 current trend down
Russell 2000: 11-22 current trend down 
IBD :11-17  Market in Correction 11770
US markets short term technical trading indicators:

Mikey5 -194 Mikey10 -135 Mikey20 -88 (-125 OS, 0 Neutral,  125 OB)

VIX (OB 10 - OS 40) 33.98,VXZ 71.76
Mikey Int OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS)+24
Put/Call Ratio 1.02 10 day average 1.00
Put Premium/Call Premium 1.23 10 day ..95
Mutual Fund Purchase/Redemptions  ( 1.5 to .66) 1.07
Stocastic Fast D 10 day 19 Weekly 63
Bulls 47.4   Bears 32.6   Bull/B ear ratio 1.45
Daily DJIA MACD  -9.77 down/ Negative cross 11-9
Weekly MACD -53.11 down / Positive cross 10-24
NYSE New Highs 42 (12/7-10 429) New Lows (8-8-11 1345 ) 171
NASDAQ New Highs 6 (12-7-10, 352 ) New Lows ( 10-4-11, 755 ) 200

Advance/Declines

Daily NYSE Advance-Decline -2324 Nasdaq Advance-Decline -1778
Daily Mikey A/D line NYSE (7-7 37567) (8-8 19199) 25543
Daily Mikey A/D line NASDAQ (2-18 10095) (10-3-10-15390) -13422
5 day AD NYSE --7761 NASDAQ --5290 NYSE..(OB +4000 OS -4000)
10 day AD NYSE -6756 (5000 OB-5000 OS) 20 day -6137 7000 OB -7000 OS)
% above 200 day ave  20%

below 50% indicates intermediate trend down

Days to option expiration 


DJI Moving Averages

5 day 11573  Down/ Price below
20 day 11896  Down/ Price below

50 day 11541 Flat/Price below
90 day 11536 Down/Price below
200 day 11962 Down / Price below
20 week 11576 Down/ Price below
50 week 11927  Down/Price below
90 week 11369 Down Price/below
200 week 10615 Down / Price above

Daily comments for last 30 days:

10-21 The intermediate term was upgraded to neutral and the current trend is still up. Stocks break out above the top of their trading range of 11600 close at 11808

10-24 All three Mikey indicators are overbought. The Mikey5 is at 38, the Mikey10 is at 144 and the Mikey20 is at 136. This is unusual and the last time it happened was July 7 and that was a top. The trends are turning positive for world markets. Brazil current trend is now up along with the total world markets indicator. US bonds are now in current trend down and joined its buddy the dollar. I believe these changes are temporary but the trends must be honored.
10-25 another day another almost solved European crisis another dollar down day  160 points. Ho hum
10-27 Euro Deal made stocks rally World stocks turn up US bonds and dollar in downtrend
10-28 Euro party ends now lets look at something else like phony job numbers that's next week
11-1 Stocks closed down 297 at 11657 or at the 20 week average. That was the breakout on 10-21 and was then resistance and now is support. That is also my line in the sand or you may also call it the pivot point.That is the critical area that this battle is being fought. A closetocks closed down 297 at 11657 or at the 20 week average. That was the breakout on 10-21 and was then resistance and now is support. That is also my line in the sand or you may also call it the pivot point.That is the critical area that this battle is being fought. A close below that number would turn the trend down again. Pt/calls ran hot at 1.22
11-8 approaching overbought
11-9 Europe breaks dollar rallies stocks sink 389
11-12 Market back above 200 day weaving back and forth on Europe story
11-21 The big news today was that world stocks all broke their up trends are in a downtrend along with the broader commodity index. The only commodity I follow that in in an uptrend is oil as Gold broke its uptrend today. The strength of the dollar is overwhelming the asset markets. The central bankers have a decision to make here which is to pump it up by taking the dollar lower or letting the markets fall.
11-22 all markets in downtrends market oversold Mikey5 -175 Mikey 10 -138
11-23 Dollar strength and weak world assets US Bonds 30 year 2.88%