World stock markets, Gold and Commodities enter down trends today

Stocks 248.85 lower at 11547.31. There were 450 stocks up and 2579 down on the NYSE on volume of 929 million. The NASDAQ closed 49.36 lower at 2523.14  on volume of 2.034 billion, 423 traded higher and 2111 closed lower. The S&P 500 closed below its 50 day average today changing its trend to down. The broader NYSE also closed below its 50 day today. The DJI and DJT, DJU and $RUT are all neutral.
   
Precious metals resumed their sell off sell off with Gold  down 46.60 to 1678.50  and Silver closed lower by 1.29 to 31.12.  Oil was down .49 to 96.92 and RBOB closed up .01 to 2.49. The CRB commodities index was off 3.40 to 308.81.   Rates on the 10 year bonds fell to 1.96% and the 30 year yield fell to 2.95%.


The market is at the very low end of a trading range 12300 to 11562 and closed just above its 50 day average now at 11533.  The current uptrend is hanging on  by a thread and with options week this week may make a stand in here.

The Mikey 5 and Mikey 10 are both trading in the red last week was joined by the Mikey20 today, which is a sign that the NYSE is in a weakening trend.  Puts were at 1.02 today and the 10 day was also at 1.02 highest level since OCT 14th.  Put premium ballooned to 1.15

The dollar index closed closed at 78.45 up .21 amid the failure of the debt negotiations in Washington. The Euro has been holding for the past 5 days on bad news possibly signaling a rally is near. That would make sense relative to the expiration of options this week.

The big news today was that world stocks all broke their up trends are in a downtrend along with the broader commodity index. The only commodity I follow that in in an uptrend is Oil as Gold broke its uptrend today. The strength of the dollar is overwhelming the asset markets. The central bankers have a decision to make here which is to pump it up by taking the dollar lower or letting the markets fall and at the moment the dollar is the winner.

Mikey

Closing Prices

US Stock Indexes
DJIA 11547.31 -248.85  S/P 500 1192.98 -22.67
NYSE Comp 7134.47 -148.00 NASDAQ2523.14 -49.36
S/P Midcap 843.82 -17.22 Russell 701.90 -17.52
DJT 4728.30 -111.74   DJU 436.38 -5.63
US bonds and interest rates
US Gov rates: 6 mo .0483%  2 yr .2661% 5 Yr  .9075% 10 yr 1.96 30 yr 2.95
Ave Mtg rates : 30 Yr 4.03% 30 Yr Rifi 4.11% 15 Yr 3.38% 5/1 ARM 2.99
IEF (US10 yr) 104.69 +.29 TLT (USLT) 120.05 +.71
MUB (NatlMuni) 106.33 +.21  Cal Muni (NCA) 9.21 +.08
Preferred (PFF) 36.18 -.28 HYG (High Yield) 84.92 -.97
BND Total Bond Index 83.60 -.02
Commodities
CRB Commodities Index 308.81 -3.40
Gold 1678.50 -46.60 Silver 31.12 -1.29 Copper 3.31 -.09
Platinum 1543.80 -44.90 Nickel (JJN) 25.72 +.02
Oil 96.92 -.49 RBOB 2.49 +.01 Nat Gas  3.40 +.09
Grains (JJG) 42.36 -.58 Livestock (COW) 30.69 +.05
Cotton (BAL) 56.32 -1.60 Agg complex(JJA) 51.70 -.51
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.3450 -.0012 Pound 1.5531 -.0135 Swiss Franc 1.0782 +.0011
Yen 1.2797 -.0009 Aussie 98.85 -.0151
Dollar Index 78.46 +.21
World Debt markets
BWX(Intl Treas) 58.86 -.46 PCY(EmerMkt) 27.00 -.22 IBND(Intl Corp) 32.73 -.02



All Markets Current Trends 

World debt markets

US Bonds: 11-16 current trend up
US Natl Muni Markets:: 11-21 current trend up
Intl Treas Bonds 11-9 current trend down
Intl Corp Bonds 11-9 current trend down
Emerging Markets Debt: 11-21 current trend neutral
US High Yield 11-21 current trend down

US Preferred Stocks 11-16 current trend neutral

Commodities

Commodity index (Broad based) 11-21 current trend down 
Gold: .11-21 current trend down  
Silver: 11-17 current trend down
Copper 11-17 current trend down

Platinum 11-17 current trend down
Palladium 11-17 current trend down
Nickel 11-1 current trend down

Grain complex 9-19 current trend down   

Sugar 10-31 current trend down
Cotton 10-21 current trend down
Livestock 11-21 current trend neutral
Coffee 9-21 current trend down

Lumber 9-23 current trend down
Agg complex 9-16 current trend down

Oil 10-18 current trend up
Gasoline 11-21 current trend down
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down

World Stock markets

US Stocks: 10-11 current trend neutral
Europe 11-9 current trend down
China: 10-26  current trend neutral  
Brazil 10-24  current trend neutral
Japan 11-1 current trend down
India 11-9 current trend neutral
Russia 11-9 current trend neutral
Emerging Markets: 11-9 current trend down
Total world markets 11-9 current trend down


Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 11-14 current trend up
Aussie Dollar 11-21 current trend down  
Euro 11-14  current trend down
Brit Pd  11-21   current trend down l
Swiss Franc: 10-27  current trend down  
Jap Yen 10-31 current trend down
Canadian Dollar 11-21 current trend down
Mexican Peso 8-3 current trend down

Brazilian Real 11-21 current trend down
Indian Rupe 11-21  current trend down

Trend changes today:

World Stocks: DJI to neutral, S&P to down, NYSE to down, DJ Util to neutral, DJ Tran to Neutral
Currencies:, Aussie, Brit pd, to down Cand $ to down, Brazilian Real to down, Indian Rupe to down
Commodities: Gold to down, Commodities index to down, Gasoline to down Livestock to neutral
World Debt : US Muni to up High Yield to down, Preferred to neutral

Intermediate Term Trends
Oil: Neutral
Gold: Up
Silver: down
Commodities: Down
US Bonds: Up
World Bonds: Down
Emerging Debt: Neutral
Emerging Markets: Down
Dollar:UP
World Stocks: Down 
US Stocks Down


US Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term  neutral  11-21
Mikey Intermediate Trend: down   11-21 11547
Mikey Long term Neutral 8-4-11 11779

NYSE 10-14 Current trend down
NASDAQ 11-17 Current trend down

DJ Utilities: Current trend neutral
Transports:10-14 current trend neutral 
Russell 2000: 10-14 current trend neutral  
IBD :11-17  Market in Correction 11770
US markets short term technical trading indicators:

Mikey5 -109 Mikey10 -72 Mikey20 -30 (-125 OS, 0 Neutral,  125 OB)

VIX (OB 10 - OS 40) 32.91,VXZ 70.44
Mikey Int OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS)+28
Put/Call Ratio 1.02 10 day average 1.02
Put Premium/Call Premium 1.15 10 day .85
Mutual Fund Purchase/Redemptions  ( 1.5 to .66) 1.07
Stocastic Fast D 10 day 45 Weekly 65
Bulls 47.4   Bears 32.6   Bull/B ear ratio 1.45
Daily DJIA MACD  +71.29 down/ Negative cross 11-9
Weekly MACD -30.05 down / Positive cross 10-24
NYSE New Highs 31 (12/7-10 429) New Lows (8-8-11 1345 )106
NASDAQ New Highs 13 (12-7-10, 352 ) New Lows 161 ( 10-4-11, 755 )

Advance/Declines

Daily NYSE Advance-Decline -2129 Nasdaq Advance-Decline -2111
Daily Mikey A/D line NYSE (7-7 37567) (8-8 19199) 29713
Daily Mikey A/D line NASDAQ (2-18 10095) (10-3-10-15390) -10932
5 day AD NYSE -4364 NASDAQ -3098 NYSE..(OB +4000 OS -4000)
10 day AD NYSE -3592 (5000 OB-5000 OS) 20 day -2097 7000 OB -7000 OS)
% above 200 day ave  26%

below 50% indicates intermediate trend down

Days to option expiration 4


DJI Moving Averages

5 day 11823 down/ Price below
20 day 11937 Down/ Price below

50 day 11533 Up/Price above
90 day 11561 down/Price above
200 day 11970 down / Price below
20 week 11590 down/ Price above
50 week 11933  flat/Price below
90 week 11373 flat Price/above

200 week 10616 down / Price above

Daily comments for last 30 days:

10-21 The intermediate term was upgraded to neutral and the current trend is still up. Stocks break out above the top of their trading range of 11600 close at 11808

10-24 All three Mikey indicators are overbought. The Mikey5 is at 38, the Mikey10 is at 144 and the Mikey20 is at 136. This is unusual and the last time it happened was July 7 and that was a top. The trends are turning positive for world markets. Brazil current trend is now up along with the total world markets indicator. US bonds are now in current trend down and joined its buddy the dollar. I believe these changes are temporary but the trends must be honored.
10-25 another day another almost solved European crisis another dollar down day  160 points. Ho hum
10-27 Euro Deal made stocks rally World stocks turn up US bonds and dollar in downtrend
10-28 Euro party ends now lets look at something else like phony job numbers that's next week
11-1 Stocks closed down 297 at 11657 or at the 20 week average. That was the breakout on 10-21 and was then resistance and now is support. That is also my line in the sand or you may also call it the pivot point.That is the critical area that this battle is being fought. A closetocks closed down 297 at 11657 or at the 20 week average. That was the breakout on 10-21 and was then resistance and now is support. That is also my line in the sand or you may also call it the pivot point.That is the critical area that this battle is being fought. A close below that number would turn the trend down again. Pt/calls ran hot at 1.22
11-8 approaching overbought
11-9 Europe breaks dollar rallies stocks sink 389
11-12 Market back above 200 day weaving back and forth on Europe story
11-21 The big news today was that world stocks all broke their up trends are in a downtrend along with the broader commodity index. The only commodity I follow that in in an uptrend is oil as Gold broke its uptrend today. The strength of the dollar is overwhelming the asset markets. The central bankers have a decision to make here which is to pump it up by taking the dollar lower or letting the markets fall.