Euro party ends ......Phoney jobs report due next week

The 1600 point Europe is saved rally ended today with a 20 point sputter. The next story is going to be about the new found strength of the US economy. Jobs numbers are due next week. The bonds have entered a downtrend and I think they want to show that the justification for the move in bonds and the move in stocks.

The Mikey 20 is a solid overbought 175. The Mikey LT is climbing the ladder and is now 62 or 18 points below overbought and the Put calls have run in the mid 80's and high 70's in 4 of the last 6 days. Today's .86 came is a flat market which shows a change in attitude. The Bull/Bear ratio last week flipped to a positive 1.06 and the mutual funds purchasers are now net buyers at 1.07 and not sellers. This is all part of process of flipping the traders and investors in a bad economy. Now all we need is a slew of "good" economic numbers to seal the deal.

Mikey


Closing Prices

US Stock Indexes
DJIA 12231.11 +22.56 S/P 500 1285.09 +.50
NYSE Comp 7803.94 -10.05 NASDAQ 2737.15 -1.48
S/P Midcap 910.64 -2.35 Russell 761.00 -4.43
DJT 5011.98 -13.11 DJU 453.69 -3.51
US bonds and interest rates
US Gov rates: 6 mo .0661%  2 yr .2931% 5 Yr  1.13 10 yr 2.31 30 yr 3.37
IEF (US10 yr) 102.14 +.61 TLT (USLT)111.46 +1.16
MUB (NatlMuni)105.91 -.01 CalMuni (NCA)8.97 uc
Preferred (PFF)37.67 +.05 HYG (High Yield)90.12 -.27
BND Total Bond Index 83.25 -.02
Commodities
Commodities Indexes (DBC)28.15 -.03 (USCI ) 62.17 -.24   
Gold 1747.20 -.50  Silver 35.28 +.17  Copper 3.70 +.01
Platinum 1651.80 +10.40 Nickel (JJN)28.42 -.08
Oil 93.32 -.64 RBOB 2.68 -.06 Nat Gas 3.92 +.16
Grains (JJG) 46.47 -.10 Livestock (COW)30.36 -.16
Cotton (BAL)64.64 +.14 Agg complex(JJA)56.05 -.29
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.4105 -.0080  Pound 1.6004 +.0027 Swiss Franc 1.1462 -.0022
Yen 1.3009 +.0030 Aussie 1.0751 -.0003
Dollar Index 75.21 +.20
World Debt markets
BWX(Intl Treas)62.26 uc PCY(EmerMkt) 27.45 -.08 IBND(Intl Corp) 34.44 +.12


All Markets Current Trends

World debt markets

US Bonds: 10-27 current trend down
US Natl Muni Markets:: 10-27 current trend down
Intl Treas Bonds 10-27 current trend up
Intl Corp Bonds 10-27 current trend up

Emerging Markets Debt: 10-27 current trend neutral
US High Yield 10-21 current trend up
US Preferred Stocks 10-27 current trend up

Commodities

Commodity index (Broad based) 9-12 current trend neutral
Gold: .10-27 current trend neutral 
Silver: 9-22 current trend down
Copper 8-8 current trend neutral

Platinum 9-19 current trend down
Palladium 9-7  current trend down

Nickel 10-27  current trend neutral
Grain complex 9-19 current trend down   

Sugar 10-21 current trend neutral
Cotton 10-21 current trend down
Livestock 9-27 current trend up
Coffee 9-21 current trend down

Lumber 9-23 current trend down
Agg complex 9-16 current trend down

Oil 10-18 current trend up
Gasoline 10-27 current trend up
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down

World Stock markets

US Stocks: 10-11 current trend up
Europe 10-14 current trend up
China: 10-26  current trend up
Brazil 10-24  current trend up
Japan 10-27 current trend up
India 10-27 current trend up
Russia 10-27 current trend neutral \

Emerging Markets: 10-26 current trend up
Total world markets 10-24 current trend up 

Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 10-21  current trend down
Aussie Dollar 10-24 current trend up  
Euro 10-27 current trend up
Brit Pd  10-27   current trend up
Swiss Franc: 10-27  current trend neutral  
Jap Yen 10-21 current trend up
Canadian Dollar 10-27 current trend up

Mexican Peso 8-3 current trend down
Brazilian Real 10-27 current trend neutral
Indian Rupe 8-9 current trend down

Trend changes:

World Stocks:
Currencies:
Commodities:
World Debt :

Intermediate Term Trends
Changes 10-21 Dollar to down and US stocks to neutral

Oil: Down
Gold: Up correcting
Silver: Down
Commodities: Down
US Bonds: Up
World Bonds: Down
Emerging Debt: Down
Emerging Markets: Down
Dollar: down
World Stocks: Down 
US Stocks Neutral


US Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term up  10-13 11478

Mikey Intermediate Trend: Neutral   10-21 11808
Mikey Long term Neutral 8-4-11 11779
NYSE 10-14 Current trend up 

NASDAQ 10-11 Current trend up
DJ Utilities: Current trend up
Transports:10-14 current trend up
Russell 2000: 10-14 current trend up   

IBD :10-12  Market in confirmed uptrend 11518

US markets short term technical trading indicators:

Mikey5 +104 Mikey10 +117Mikey20 +175(-125 OS, 0 Neutral,  125 OB)

VIX (OB 10 - OS 40) 24.53,VXZ 57.74
Mikey Int OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS)+62
Put/Call Ratio .86 10 day average .95
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (.34 to 2.5) .81 10 day ave .91
Mutual Fund Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66) 1.07
Stocastic Fast D 10 day 87.24 Weekly 61.56
Bulls 40 Bears 37.9  Bull/Bear ratio 1.06
Daily DJIA MACD  +227.71 Rising/ Positive cross 10-6
Weekly MACD -114.40 Rising/Positive cross 10-24
NYSE New Highs 63(12/7-10 429) New Lows (8-8-11 1345 ) 9
NASDAQ New Highs 62 (12-7-10, 352 ) New Lows 23 ( 10-4-11, 755 )

Advance/Declines

Daily NYSE Advance-Decline -20  Nasdaq Advance-Decline -292
Daily Mikey A/D line NYSE (7-7 37567) (8-8 19199) 33977  
Daily Mikey A/D line NASDAQ (2-18 10095) (10-3-10-15390) -6287 
5 day AD NYSE +4148 NASDAQ +2571 NYSE..(OB +4000 OS -4000)
10 day AD NYSE +5833(5000 OB-5000 OS) 20 day +12255 (+7000 OB -7000 OS)
% above 200 day ave  39%

below 50% indicates intermediate trend down

Days to option expiration 20


DJI Moving Averages

5 day 11985  up / Price above
20 day 11493 up/ Price above

50 day 11317 up/Price above
90 day 11646 Flat/Price above
200 day 11973 Flat / Price above
20 week 11675 upPrice above

50 week 11865  down /Price above
90 week 11305 Flat Price/above
200 week 10627 Flat / Price above

Daily comments for last 30 days:

9-29 Good GDP numbers released and the market rallied. I will not comment on those numbers or any other because they are not only subject to revision but they make them up. I have learned that figuring out the real economy is just a pain in the ass. It will not make you any money and just cause you to attach to the wrong thing which is the story. Keep focused on the price if you want to trade and not the Alice in wonderland numbers they system makes up. Today was an up day for what ever reason and the trend is still down. Apple (390) looks very toppy to me and many of the leadership stocks have been nailed a move to 340 would not surprise me.

9-30 End of Qtr closes down 240 near long term support.
10-3 The averages closed right on the edge of the cliff today. The support of the 200 week is at 10662 and the DJI closed at 10655. The brokers and banks are acting just like they did in Sept 2008 when we had the credit meltdown. Long term US bonds closed higher that they did in 2009 and yields are at their lowest levels at 2.74. The market is now at a 52 week low and has wiped out QE2 and is working on QE1 from June of 2010 which started at 10300 in July. That is the result of fake money being pumped in by the Fed to save the banks and corporations. Gold and silver was also aided by this pump and its day is coming too.
10-4 The risk trade awoke today just in time to save the DJI from breaking down. Its a good thing for the market makers because there have been a lot of puts bought and they would have been on the hook. The truth is that 95 out of 100 of these the puts lose just like they did today. They must first make this 10600 level unimportant and then it can break. The threat to the puts is the Fed and Bernanke was out rattling the sword today. The municipal bond market took a hit today with the National fund and the California funds trends turning for up to neutral. Keep your eyes on these trends because the way the banks and brokers are trading credit quality may be a concern and these markets could get ugly with out Federal support.
10-5 The 200 week is the line between a long term uptrend and a long term downtrend. It is an important line and the traders are watching it. The shorts got too excited this last week and the "risk traders" (you know who) pulled it back above the line. The market internals still show an oversold market and the puts got some religion today with Put/Calls running at a calmer .86. It looks to me that they want to stair step this down trend a little at a time.
10-6 Stocks and commodities edged higher on the lower dollar today. The 50 day average on the DJI is at 11262 or about 30 points above the current close. The average is falling so the odds favor the market meeting resistance in that area. The intermediate trend is down and for it to turn up the DJI would have to get above 12000.
10-7 Jobs sell off
10-10 300 point fix Europe rally dollar tanks but gold rallies
10-11 Nearing the top of a trading range. Current trend changed to neutral

10-12 counter trend rally continues IBD calls market in uptrend
10-13 Daily MACD turns positive
10-18 The central banks held the line at the 200 week average over the past 2 weeks and once again the DJI is at the top of a trading range. The support area is now the 50 day average at 11215 which contained the yesterdays sell off. The 20 week is now the resistance area at 11649
10-19  The top end of a trading range and the lower end or breakout in the dollar are holding at these levels. The Mikey 5 is just above the zero line and the Mikey 10 is still an over bought 114. This indicates some near term weakness in creeping into this last 2 week rally..
10-21 The intermediate term was upgraded to neutral and the current trend is still up. Stocks break out above the top of their trading range of 11600 close at 11808
10-24 All three Mikey indicators are overbought. The Mikey5 is at 38, the Mikey10 is at 144 and the Mikey20 is at 136. This is unusual and the last time it happened was July 7 and that was a top. The trends are turning positive for world markets. Brazil current trend is now up along with the total world markets indicator. US bonds are now in current trend down and joined its buddy the dollar. I believe these changes are temporary but the trends must be honored.
10-25 another day another almost solved European crisis another dollar down day  160 points. Ho hum
10-27 Euro Deal made stocks rally World stocks turn up US bonds and dollar in downtrend
10-28 Euro party ends now lets look at something else lke phoney job numbers that's next week