Gasoline (2.65) and Oil (81.21) sitting on edge of a cliff and the crowd is yelling jump jump

Oil and Gasoline look like they could cave in.  Copper, Silver and Platinum are the most recent casualties of the dollar rally and the soft world economy. Stocks today dropped 179.99 and resumed their decline and I believe at some point have another leg down. My indicators are slightly oversold but puts ran at a hefty 1.30 today and the VIX was over 40. Normally when the VIX runs at 40 either the sell off is over or we enter a crash phase. The path of least resistance is still down for all assets as the "Risk Trade" unravels and the reality of a weak world economy approaches center stage.

Mikey

Closing Prices

US Stock Indexes
DJIA 11010.90 -179.79   S/P 500 1151.06 -24.32
NYSE Comp 6876.94 -166.18 NASDAQ 2491.58 -55.25
S/P Midcap 796.05 -27.72 Russell 651.97 -28.26
DJT 4254.18 -28.26 DJU  431.81 -4.46
US bonds and interest rates
US Gov rates: 6 mo .0352%  2 yr .2465% 5 Yr .9535 10 yr 1.98 30 yr 3.04
IEF (US10 yr) 104.42 +.02 TLT (USLT)117.03 +.03
MUB (NatlMuni) 106.51 -.56 CalMuni (NCA)9.05 uc
BND (Total Bond Mkt)83.32 -.30
Commodities
Commodities Indexes (DBC)26.39 -.70 (USCI ) 58.85 -.86
Gold 1619.10 -33.40 Silver 31.12 -.41 Copper 3.23 -.20
Platinum 1574.00 +19.00 Nickel (JJN)27.41 +1.36  
Oil 81.21 -3.34 RBOB 2.65 -.04 Nat Gas 3.79 -.03
Grains (JJG)45.50 -1.43 Livestock (COW)30.15 +.03
Cotton (BAL)61.67 +.18 Agg complex(JJA)54.61 -1.30
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.3488 -.0055 Pound 1.5487 -.0024 Swiss Franc 1.0981 -.0043
Yen 1.2874 +.0034 Aussie .9772 -.0168
Dollar Index 78.43 +.40 
 World Debt markets
BWX(Intl Treas)60.57 -.33  PCY(EmerMkt) 26.16 -.35
IBND(Intl Corp) 33.73 +.10
 All Markets Current Trends

World debt markets

US Bonds: 7-29 current trend up

US Natl Muni Markets:: 7-13 current trend up

Intl Treas Bonds 9-9 current trend down
Intl Corp Bonds 9-2  current trend down
Emerging Markets Debt: 9-21 current trend down
US High Yield 8-2 current trend down

US Preferred Stocks 6-7 current trend down

Commodities

Commodity index (Broad based) 9-12 current trend down
Gold: .9-23 current trend down  
Silver: 9-22 current trend down
Copper 8-8 current trend down

Platinum 9-19 current trend down
Palladium 9-7  current trend down

Nickel 8-8 current trend down

Grain complex 9-19 current trend down   
Sugar 9-19 current trend down
Cotton 9-22 current trend down
Livestock 9-27 current trend neutral
Coffee 9-21 current trend down

Lumber 9-23 current trend down
Agg complex 9-16 current trend down

Oil 7-29 current trend down
Gasoline 9-19 current trend down
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down

World Stock markets

US Stocks: 7-27 current trend down
Europe 7-1 current trend down

China: 6-3 current trend down

Brazil 7-1 current trend down

Japan 8-4 current trend down

India 8-2 current trend down

Russia 8-4 current trend down\
Emerging Markets: 8-2 current trend downl

Total world markets 8-2 current trend down  

Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 9-6 current trend up
Aussie Dollar 9-6 current trend down
Euro 9-2 current trend down
Brit Pd  9-2 current trend down
Swiss Franc: 9-2 current trend down
Jap Yen 7-12 current trend up weakening

Canadian Dollar 8-8 current trend down
Mexican Peso 8-3 current trend down
Brazilian Real 8-9 current trend down
Indian Rupe 8-9 current trend down

Trend changes:

World Stocks: All markets remain in a downtrend
Currencies: 
Commodities:  .
World Debt :

Intermediate Term Trends
Oil: Down
Gold: Up correcting
Silver: Down
Commodities: Down
US Bonds: Up extended
World Bonds: Down
Emerging Debt: Down
Emerging Markets: Down extended
Dollar: Up tentative
World Stocks: Down extended
US Stocks Down


US Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term down  7-28 12240

Mikey Intermediate Trend: down  8-4-11 11779
Mikey Long term Neutral 8-4-11 11779
NYSE 7-21 Current trend down  

NASDAQ 7-28 Current trend down
Transports: 7-27 down  

Russell 2000: 7-27 down   

IBD : 9-21 10733 Market in correction 

US markets short term technical trading indicators:

Mikey10 Meter -53 Mikey5 Meter -6(-80 OB, 0 Neutral,  80 OB)

VIX (OB 10 - OS 40) 41.08 ,VXZ 70.98
Mikey Int OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) -4
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) 92 10 day average .91
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (.34 to 2.5) 1.30  10 day ave 1.12
Mutual Fund Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66) .97
Williams %R 12 day -56.58 Weekly - 80.59
Bulls 37.6  40.9   Bull/Bear ratio .94
Daily DJIA MACD  -123.33 Falling/ Negative cross 9-23
Weekly MACD -273.69 Falling /Negative cross 5-16

NYSE New Highs 10 (12/7-10 429) New Lows (8-8-11 1345 )108
NASDAQ New Highs 8 (12-7-10, 352 ) New Lows 130 ( 8-8-11, 712 )
Advance/Declines

Daily NYSE Advance-Decline  -1986 Nasdaq Advance-Decline -1716
Daily Mikey A/D line NYSE (7-7 37567) (8-8 19199) 22251    
Daily Mikey A/D line NASDAQ (2-18 10095) (9-22-10-13661) -12453
5 day AD NYSE- -246 NASDAQ -673 NYSE..(OB +4000 OS -4000)
10 day AD NYSE -3186 (6000 OB -6000 OS)
% above 200 day ave  17%

below 50% indicates intermediate trend down

Days to option expiration 17

DJI Moving Averages

5 day 10950  Falling / Price above

20 day 11211 Falling Price below
50 day 11457  Falling/Price below

90 day 11822  Falling/Price below
200 day 11989 Falling  Price below

20 week 11794 Falling /Price below
50 week 11849 Falling Price below
90 week 11240   Flat Price/below
200 week 10663  Falling/ Price above

Daily comments for last 30 days:

8-30 Pimpco's (SIC) Bill Gross is now buying US bonds. I guess he is buying them from the Fed and the banks who I am sure are big sellers now. Bonds are starting to look as scary to me as Gold. Interest rates that pay anything are only available in stocks and corporate bonds. Believe me they are taking advantage of these low rates and the public is buying what they are selling. Any investor that invests a these current rates will lose half of their principle in the coming years.  This is going to be the next big debacle that the public faces it has been a long time since the public face interest rte risk but they are now. The Fed says that it will not raise rates for the next two years. That is hard for me to believe.

8-31 Bonds are weakening as commodities and the market challenge their downtrends. If the Fed is doing nothing then the bond vigilante's are going to come back. They raise rates as commodities and assets rise. The dollar is the beneficiary. This is the exact opposite of easing which is what the Fed has been doing. The economic news is turn more positive. This would support the vigilantes.
9-1 The dollar ran up to the 50 day average today and pulled back. The number on the UUP is 21.22 That is the number to watch. The jobs report comes in tomorrow will it show strength???
9-2 The market is falling and the long bonds are rising but the dollar is turning up and is at a 3 week high. This is different than the QE's that the Fed ran. Are they cutting asset prices free to trade on their own merits. Watch to see if this action continues. It would imply that the world economy is weaker than the US.  OMG
9-6 Dollar breaks downtrend line trend turns up Put/calls 1.16 highest since 8-8
9-7 Gold breaks $55 it appears to me that this is the top Market rallies 275 traps puts and shorts
9-8 Power outage did not post
9-9 Dollar powers to a 5 month high commodities look wobbly, 10 year note at 1.92 30 year at 3.24
market dives 300 points risk traders are taking it on the chin
9-12(OpXpWk) Keep in mind this is options expiration week and going into this week there are alot of put holders. I doubt that they will be winners and a market rally to possibly the top of the trading range of 11600 would not surprise me.
9-13 It looks to me like we are in a trading range and we are near the bottom of that range.  That range is 10700 to 11700 which is the 200 week on the low side and the 200 day on the upside.
9-14 Talk is that the Fed will be buying long end and selling short end. That is I believe a plant by the Fed Look for long rates to stall in here I think the rallylk is that the Fed will be buying long end and selling short end. That is I believe a plant by the Fed Look for long rates to stall in herethat the Fed will be buying long end and selling short end. That is I believe a plant by the Fed Look for long rates to stall in here I think the rallylk is that the Fed will be buying long end and selling short end. That is I believe a plant by the Fed Look for long rates to stall in here I think the rally in these is topping.
9-15 The shorts are losing their grip. Put/call ratio ran a low .49 today indicating no interest in short this rally. I still think wee take out the 11700 high which is the 200 day average. That would give the bulls bragging rights with a new high and a break above the 200 day average which is a buy signal to trades
9-16 Puts vaporize at expiration. Market closes near top of range.
9-19 Recent $ strength eating away at commodities markets
9-20 The DJI was up 7.65 but most indexes and indicators were down today. Their story is still negative and I think they are pressuring law makers to "do the right thing. this reminds me of 2008 before the Congress pasted the 800 billion bailout. If they balk then the market will teach them that they must comply with the powers that be.
9-21 I mentioned some time ago that the best return is zero interest and in dollars. That trade is clearly outperforming the risk trade and the risk traders still have not figured it out. They will when Gold and Silver joins the party. Silver is poised on the edge of a cliff now and the crowdmentioned some time ago that the best return is zero interest and in dollars. That trade is clearly outperforming the risk trade and the risk traders still have not figured it out. They will when Gold and Silver joins the party. Silver is poised on the edge of a cliff now and the crowd is yelling jump,jump. IBD went to uptrend under pressure today. I think their uptrend call was ....errrr a reach.
9-22 Gold -66.40 and Silver -3.89 joined the party and the market retested the lows at the 200 week. 30 year rates fell to an incredible 2.80 today as the price hit  the 2008 highs. This is truly shock and awe now and you wonder if anyone is driving this runaway truck.
9-23 Gold and silver bugs get nailed with Gold 1639.80 -101.90 and Silver 30.10 -6.48. Copper dives another .20  to 3.28. That means that Copper is a cool 31% off of its April highs, Silver is now 40% off of its highs and Gold is 15% off of its high. Gold has a long way to go to catch up with the other commodities. A 30 % correction would put Gold at 1347 and as I said earlier this week I forecast Gold to 681 before it is all over. Gold is now a source of funds for other depreating assets. The risk trade is unwinding and that is exactly what they want.
9-26 The DJI held the 200 week for the forth time since August 8th and rallied 272 points.  I think the shorts have to make a decision here to cover or hold. The talk I have heard leads me to believe that the lows are going to break. The market rallied with the announcement in EUROPE on a deal to bailout the banks similar to the TARP agreement.
9-27 Stocks and commodities rallied as some air was let out of the recent dollar rally. We are at the end of the quarter and this rally maybe just the window dressing the system needs to show the 401K plans that things are not that bad. This happened at the end of last quarter. Bonds along with the dollar took it on the chin today. The trend is still down on all asset classes. The dive into the end of the quarter would have been a good thing if you are looking for a low
9-28 Oil and Gasoline looks like it could cave in. Copper Silver and Platinum are the most recent casualties of the dollar rally and the soft world economy. Stocks today dropped 179.99 and resumed their decline and I believe at some point have another leg down. My indicators are slightly oversold but puts ran at a hefty 1.30 today and the VIX was over 40. Normally when the VIX runs at 40 either the sell off is over or we enter a crash phase. The path of least resistance is still down.