Dollar breaks downtrend now in an uptrend

The powers that be have trashed the Swiss franc and reestablished the dollar as the place to be at least for now. The market held its ground today and gold reversed from its high to close down for the day. It looks to me like gold may be in for some "volatility" which is another way of saying it is going to get clocked. You will notice that the currency section is all red except the Dollar and the Yen.

 The commodities are still a mixed picture and can be called neutral now. I am sure that the boys are not happy with the high price of oil and a stronger dollar will bring that in line. All world stock markets are still in downtrends but with such negative press and options expiring next week I think there is a rally around her somewhere.

The Mikey5 is an oversold -80 but the Mikey 10 is neutral at +50 so there is probably only a possibility of a short term bounce now. The Put/calls were a very high 1.16 today as the players thought today that the world may come to an end. That was the highest reading since the 1.4 on the August 8th low so I would not press  the downside right here and be looking to take profit on some shorts as it appears that the 200 week average (10695) will hold for now.  

Mikey

 Closing Prices

US Stock Indexes
DJIA 11139.30 -100.96 S/P 500 1165.24 -8.73   
NYSE Comp 7148.13 -102.60 NASDAQ 2473.83 -6.00
S/P Midcap 827.58 -5.41 Russell 680.87 -2.49
DJT 4382.98 -62.84 DJU 424.24 -2.48
US bonds and interest rates
US Gov rates: 6 mo .0704%  2 yr .2002% 10 yr 2.00 30 yr 3.29
IEF (US10 yr) 104.68 +.14 TLT (USLT) 113.68 +1.17
MUB (NatlMuni) 105.98 +.39 CalMuni (NCA)8.96 -.03
BND (Total Bond Mkt)83.89 +.12
Commodities
Commodities Indexes (DBC)29.69 -.10 (USCI )65.28 -.23
Gold 1873.30 -3.30 Silver 41.87 -1.19   Copper 4.06 -.06
Platinum 1858.20 -26.60 .Nickel (JJN) 29.70 -1.56
Oil 86.02 -.43  RBOB 2.82 -.01 Nat Gas 3.94 +.07
Grains (JJG)54.20 -.70 Livestock (COW) 28.96 +.05
Cotton (BAL)66.03 +.60  Agg complex(JJA)63.91 -1.08
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.3946 -.0193 Pound 1.5832 -.0273 Swiss Franc 1.1480 -1.045
Yen 1.2692 -.0140 Aussie 1.0522 -.0134
Dollar Index 76.05 +1.21  
World Debt markets
BWX(Intl Treas) 62.00 -.62 PCY(EmerMkt) 27.87 uc
IBND(Intl Corp) 33.96 -.48

All Markets Current Trends

World debt markets

US Bonds: 7-29 current trend up

US Natl Muni Markets:: 7-13 current trend up

Intl Treas Bonds 7-26 current trend up weakening
Intl Corp Bonds 9-2  current trend down
Emerging Markets Debt: ..3-24 current trend up
US High Yield 8-2 current trend down

US Preferred Stocks 6-7 current trend down

Commodities

Commodity index (Broad based) 9-6 current trend neutral
Gold: .7-11 current trend up

Silver: 7-13 current trend up
Copper 8-8 current trend down
Platinum 8-15 current trend up

Palladium 9-6 current trend neutral
Nickel 8-8 current trend down

Grain complex 8-22 current trend up
Sugar 6-7  current trend up
Cotton `8-30  current trend neutral

Livestock 8-22 current trend down
Coffee 8-18 current trend up

Lumber 8-29 current trend neutral
Agg complex 8-17 current trend up

Oil 7-29 current trend down

Gasoline 9-2 current trend neutral
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down

World Stock markets

US Stocks: 7-27 current trend down
Europe 7-1 current trend down

China: 6-3 current trend down

Brazil 7-1 current trend down

Japan 8-4 current trend down

India 8-2 current trend down

Russia 8-4 current trend down\
Emerging Markets: 8-2 current trend downl

Total world markets 8-2 current trend down  

Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 9-6 current trend up
Aussie Dollar 9-6 current trend down
Euro 9-2 current trend down
Brit Pd  9-2 current trend down
Swiss Franc: 9-2 current trend down
Jap Yen 7-12 current trend up

Canadian Dollar 8-8 current trend down
Mexican Peso 8-3 current trend down
Brazilian Real 8-9 current trend down
Indian Rupe 8-9 current trend down

Trend changes:

World Stocks: All markets remain in a downtrend
Currencies:  US dollar to up. Aussie to down, Brit Pd to down,
Commodities: Palladium to neutral
World Debt : none

US Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term down  7-28 12240

Mikey Intermediate Trend: down  8-4-11 11779
Mikey Long term Neutral 8-4-11 11779
NYSE 7-21 Current trend down  

NASDAQ 7-28 Current trend down
Transports: 7-27 down  

Russell 2000: 7-27 down   

IBD : 8-24 11176 confirmed uptrend

US markets short term technical trading indicators:

Mikey10 Meter +50 Mikey5 Meter -80 (-80 OB, 0 Neutral,  80 OB)
VIX (OB 10 - OS 40) 37.00 ,VXZ 64.93
Mikey Int OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) +12
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) 1.16 10 day average 1.05
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (.34 to 2.5) .96 10 day ave 1.01
Mutual Fund Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66) 1.08
Williams %R 12 day - 63.03 Weekly - 75.07
Bulls 40.9  Bears 36.6 Bull/Bear ratio 1.12
Daily DJIA MACD  -140.69 Falling/ Positive cross 8-25
Weekly MACD -199.08 Falling /Negative cross 5-16

NYSE New Highs 19 (12/7-10 429) New Lows (8-8-11 1345 )16
NASDAQ New Highs 16 (12-7 352) New Lows (8-8-11 712) 239
Advance/Declines

Daily NYSE Advance-Decline  -1376 Nasdaq Advance-Decline -768
Daily Mikey A/D line NYSE (7-7 37567) (8-8 19199) 23899   
Daily Mikey A/D line NASDAQ (2-18 10095) (8-22-10-10443) -10102
5 day AD NYSE -3206 NASDAQ -3998 NYSE..(OB +4000 OS -4000)
10 day AD NYSE +3023(6000 OB -6000 OS)
% above 200 day ave  22%

below 50% indicates intermediate trend down

Days to option expiration 9

DJI Moving Averages

5 day 11409  Falling/ Price below
20 day 11242 Falling / Price below
50 day 11870 Falling/Price below

90 day 12086 Falling/Price below
200 day 11995  Flat Price below

20 week 12039 Falling/Price below
50 week 11844  Flat/ Price below
90 week 11223 / Flat/Price/below
200 week 10695  Falling/ Price above

Comments:

8-8 DJI catches up with rest of market and trades to 200 week average. NYSE 0 new highs 1345 new lows. Mikey10 at -234 mikey 5 at -173. Mikey OB/OS -32 Weeky MACD below zero jast time was June 2010. The  Fed making money hand over fist on US bond position.

8-9 Fed plays catch today and says they will not hike rates. Really that was big news. The dollar returned to near its lows. Remember keep an eye on the uup it needs to trade above 21.80 to reverse. Today made it feel that QE 3 is on the way the way the currenciers all ripped the dollar. The Fed may not have the balls to do what they need to do which will drag this economy slowly into recession. Mikey 10 still way oversold at -226 Mikey 5 -169, Put call still high at 1.13 on a 400 up day. Closing in on the 5 day average which should be resisitance at 11500. Silver downgraded to neutral with the trend change at below 37.00. Gold keeps on going up 30 to 1743.

8-10 Mikey reading indicate a rally is nearing. The Fed and US treasury sold at aution Tuesday 24 billion of 3 year notes for .51% on wednesday it sold 24 billion of 10 year notes for 2.14% and tomarrow they will sell 16 billion of 30 year bonds at around 3.56%. It was sure nioce that the stock market sell off has created so much demand for US Debt just when the autions came in. Man are they lucky. I think you get the point. The stock market got out of the way and also the Euro bonds when France banking problems surfaced just in time for our auction. The Mikey 10 is a substancially oversold reading of -219 \the Mikey 5 is -161 and the VXZ is a col 58 induication the manager have a healthy respect for this sell off. A rally next week or options expirations week to about 11500 to 11700 would not surprise me at all. 
 8-11 Auction over fear leaves and market rallies bonds sell off and Gold falls.  Not Very original but who cares...right?
8-12 Week ends down a respectable 178 points rallying after the treasury auctions ended, what happens now well it would be perfect if the DJI would rally to about 11850 by next Friday, which was the breakdown and that way the puts would be wiped out. Mikey 5 is a normal +45 and the Mikey 10 is at an oversold -75. VXZ is till showing fear at 56.38 so all in all there is roonm to run it up. The 10 day average of Put/calls is a high 1.33 so the puts are ripe for the picking.
8-15 DJI continues to rally into expirations week Bye Bye puts.
8-16 Perry calls any more printing by the Fed treasonist. Obama needs more printing or the economy is toast.
8-17 Marking time
8-18 Dji drops 400 back near its 200 week and near its long term reversal point of 10,732
8-22 QE3 Ben talks tomorrow. meanwhile market working off oversold condition. Gold rumbles past 1900 margin increase anyone?? Dollar quietly up
8-23 Going into the Fed statement tomorrow the markets have anticipated the Fed to prop up assets and keep this thing from rolling over. Forget the idea that the economy is going to fall into recession. The idea is the same as it was in 2009 and 2010 that the Fed is going to catch it here and print. That is what today's 322 up day was saying. IBD went to market in confirmed uptrend today. Mikey 10 has run positive for the last 2 days the trend has a tendence to follow the 10 up and down. I think it is too early to call here with only 2 days posiitve.
8-24 Gold was 97.50 lower today closing at 1763.80. If this is the same move that I have seen by most parabolic breaks it should see the 90 day average quickly. That average is just happens to be at the July 11 breakout at 1580 or GLD (154).
8-25 Warren Buffett buys 50 billion B of A preferred in private placement. Hey it was his idea they really did not need the money. Who could not use a spare 50 billion.
8-26 No QE3 but don't tell that to the market because it acted like it today
8-29 Greek banks and US economy OK today B of A sells 6 billion holding in China.But I am sure that they don't need the money.
8-30 Pimpco's Bill Gross is now buying US bonds. I guess he is buying them from the Fed and the banks who I am sure are big sellers now. Bonds are starting to look as scary to me as Gold. Interest rates that pay anything are only available in stocks and corporate bonds. Believe me they are taking advantage of these low rates and the public is buying what they are selling. Any investor that invests a these current rates will lose half of their principle in the coming years.  This is going to be the next big debacle that the public faces it has been a long time since the public face interest rte risk but they are now. The Fed says that it will not raise rates for the next two years. That is hard for me to believe.
8-31 Bonds are weakening as commodities and the market challenge their downtrends. If the Fed is doing nnothing then the bond vigilante's are going to come back. They raise rates as commodities and assets rise. The dollar is the beneficiary. This is the exact opposite of easing which is what the Fed has been doing. The economic news is turn more positive. This would support the vigilantes.
9-1 The dollar ran up to the 50 day average today and pulled back. The number on the UUP is 21.22 That is the number to watch. The jobs report comes in tomorrow will it show strength???
9-2 The market is falling and the long bonds are rising but the dollar is turning up and is at a 3 week high. This is different than the QE's that the Fed ran. Are they cutting asset prices free to trade on their own merits. Watch to see if this action continues. It would imply that the world economy is weaker than the US.  OMG
9-6 Dollar breaks downtrend line trend turns up Put/calls 1.16 highest since 8-8