Stocks think Ben will cave again and print ...DJI rallies 322

Going into the Fed statement Friday the markets have anticipated the Fed to prop up assets and keep this thing from rolling over. Forget the idea that the economy is  going to fall into recession. The idea is the same as it was in 2009 and 2010 that the Fed is going to catch it here and print. That is what today's 322 up day was saying.

IBD went to market in confirmed uptrend today. I don't see it but they have been very good on their calls. The Mikey5 is -48 and the Mikey10 is +19 and that is the first positive reading for the 10 since Jul 15. The tendency is for the market to follow the 10 up when positive and down when negative. It is now positive so maybe IBD has something here.  I think they are jumping the gun here and I will wait.  The intermediate term trend is down now so I am more interested in finding a place to short than I am to go long.

Mikey

 Closing Prices

US Stock Indexes
DJIA 11176.76 +322.11 S/P 500 1162.35 +38.53
NYSE Comp 7209.59 +228.97 NASDAQ 2446.06 +100.68
S/P Midcap 821.24 +32.66  Russell 683.07 +31.73
DJT 4225.79 +4.19 DJU 415.11 -1.56
US bonds and interest rates
US Gov rates: 6 mo .0356%  2 yr .2229% 10 yr 2.13 30 yr 3.46
IEF (US10 yr) 103.49 -.42 TLT (USLT) 109.39 -1.53
MUB (NatlMuni) 105.82 -.09 CalMuni (NCA)8.92 +.04
HYG (High Yield)`86.10 +.64 PFF(Preferred) 36.37 -.10 BND (Total Bond Mkt) 83.55 -.25
Commodities
Commodities Indexes (DBC)29.45 +.30 (USCI )64.93 +.51
Gold 1861.30 -30.60 Silver 42.29 -1.03 Copper 4.00 +.05
Platinum 1880.10 -15.20 .Nickel (JJN) 30.24 +.01
Oil 85.44 +1.02  RBOB 2.88 +.05 Nat Gas 3.99 +.10
Grains (JJG)54.15 +1.07 Livestock (COW) 29.30 -.13 
Cotton (BAL)65.83 +.24 Agg complex(JJA)64.32 +1.23 
US Dollar Index and World Currencies
Euro 1.4389 +.0078  Pound 1.6385 +.0032 Swiss Franc 1.2523 -.0057
Yen 1.2859 +.0015 Aussie 1.0549 +.0111 Dollar Index 73.96 -.21 
World Debt markets
BWX(Intl Treas) 63.67 +.19 PCY(EmerMkt) 27.63 -.17
IBND(Intl Corp) 35.17 +.04
All Markets Current Trends

World debt markets

US Bonds: 7-29 current trend up

US Natl Muni Markets:: 8-3 current trend up

Intl Treas Bonds 8-12 current trend up
Intl Corp Bonds 8-17 current trend up
Emerging Markets Debt: ..8-10 current trend up
US High Yield 8-2 current trend down

US Preferred Stocks 7-6 current trend down

Commodities

Commodity index (Broad based) 8-4 current trend down
Gold: .7-6  current trend up

Silver: 8-16 current trend up
Copper 8-5 current trend down
Platinum 8-15 current trend up

Palladium 8-18 current trend neutral
Nickel 8-8 current trend down

Grain complex 8-22 current trend up
Sugar 8-17  current trend up
Cotton `4-25 current trend down

Livestock 8-22 current trend neutral

Coffee 8-22 current trend up
Lumber 7-28  current trend down

Agg complex 8-22 current trend up
Oil 8-1 current trend down

Gasoline 8-4  current trend down
Natural Gas 7-28 current trend down

World Stock markets

US Stocks: 7-27 current trend down
Europe 7-1 current trend down

China: 6-3 current trend down

Brazil 7-1 current trend down

Japan 8-4 current trend down

India 8-2 current trend down

Russia 8-4 current trend down\
Emerging Markets: 8-2 current trend downl

Total world markets 8-2 current trend down  

Currencies markets

US Dollar Index 8-9 current trend down 
Aussie Dollar 8-4 current trend down
Euro 8-16 current trend up
Brit Pd  8-15 current trend up
Swiss Franc: 2-17 current trend up..
Jap Yen 7-11 current trend up

Canadian Dollar 8-4 current trend down
Mexican Peso 8-4 current trend down
Brazilian Real 8-16 current trend neutral

Indian Rupe 8-8 current trend neutral

Trend changes:

World Stocks:
Currencies:
Commodities:
World Debt :

US Stock Market Trends

Mikey Short term down  7-28 12240

Mikey Intermediate Trend: down  8-4-11 11779
Mikey Long term Neutral 8-4-11 11779
NYSE 7-21 Current trend down  

NASDAQ 7-28 Current trend down
Transports: 7-27 down  

Russell 2000: 7-27 down   

IBD : 8-24 11176 confirmed uptrend

US markets short term technical trading indicators:

Mikey10 Meter -48 Mikey5 Meter +19 (-80 OB, 0 Neutral,  80 OB)
VIX (OB 10 - OS 40) 42.44 ,VXZ 63.19
Mikey OB/OS index (80 OB 20 OS) -10
Put/Call Ratio(.6 OB 1.2 OS) .95 10 day average 1.09
Ratio Put Premiums to Call Premium (.34 to 2.5) 1.60 10 day ave 1.30
Mutual Fund Purchase/Redemptions ( 1.5 to .66) 1.08
Williams %R 12 day - 73.50 Weekly - 88.27
Bulls 46.2   Bears 23.7 Bull/Bear ratio 1.95
Daily DJIA MACD  -349  Falling/ Neg cross 7-27 

Weekly MACD -163.30 Falling /Negative cross 5-16

NYSE New Highs 14 (12/7-10 429) New Lows (8-8-11 1345 )242
NASDAQ New Highs 6 (12-7 352) New Lows (8-8-11 712) 237
Advance/Declines

Daily NYSE Advance-Decline  -338 Nasdaq Advance-Decline -224
Daily Mikey A/D line NYSE (7-7 37567) 20876   
Daily Mikey A/D line NASDAQ (2-18 10095) (8-22-10-10443) -10443
5 day AD NYSE -5529 NASDAQ -5120 NYSE..(OB +4000 OS -4000)
10 day AD NYSE +1677(6000 OB -6000 OS)
% above 200 day ave (6-13 47%) 16%

below 50% indicates intermediate trend may be changing

Days to option expiration 19

DJI Moving Averages

5 day 11049 Falling /Price above
20 day 11436 Falling/ Price below

50 day 11990 Falling/Price below
90 day 12196 Falling/Price below
200 day 11989 Falling Price below

20 week 12141 Falling/Price below
50 week 11818 Flat/ Price below
90 week 11200  Flat/Price below
200 week 10714 Falling/ Price above

Comments:

7-25 Debt talks taken public flame is turned up on the public STOD FEIC 36.57 RS 94. mikey meter at -47 indicating downward pressure over the last 10 days.

7-27 AD line tanking, Mikey meter -60, Daily MACD Negative cross, DJI closes at 50 day, DJT and Russel 2000  break down to 200 day, less than 50% of all NYSE stocks are above their 200 day averages. IBD goes to market in correction Mikey goes to neutral.

7-28 Meter reads -153 for 5 day and -90 for 10 day either we crash or the market is close to a rally. Put/call is .97 10 day so the puts are out on a limb again, Put premium is finally starting to rise at .81 10 day but is saying that puts are still cheap relative to calls. %R is all the way down on the daily and half the way down on the weekly. I gave a sell signal today but it looks like the decline is slowing

7-29 US bonds have big up day at 6 month highs 30 year to 4.11 10 year to 2.80. Mortgages should fall. Stocks continue down nearing the 200 day average which is at 11977 or near its mid June lows. Mikey5 is at -176 and the mikey10 is -78.  MACD is nearing zero at 7.68 and only 42% of the stocks are above the 200 day showing that the DJI is masking the decline.

8-1 Debt agreement nears market swings up down up. more and more stock getting slammed, Bonds continue rally oil sell signal. Dollar rallies keep you eye on UUP 21.15 holding near lows. A trade above 21.76 might set it off to the upside. A reversal in the dollar and everything in the QE's unwinds. 

8-2  The 30 year rates closed at 3.89% and the 10 year at 2.59%.

The market broke a 2 1/2 year trendline drawn from the March 09 low through the July 2010 low. The same time it was breaking the trendline it was breaking the 200 day average. The number of NYSE stocks above the 200 day fell to 37% conforming the decline. New lows hit 169 for NYSE and 139 for NASDAQ.

8-3 New lows hit 273 for NYSE. This number was at this level at the lows in 7-29-10. Indication that the DJI is way over priced and masking the damage that is going on now. Gasoline dropped .12 a gallon today and is nearing a trend break. Market holds at intermediate uptrend and reverses up for now.

 8-4 Stocks closed down 515 points to close at 11383. New lows hit 452 for NYSE and 302 for the Nasdaq. Put call ratio ran a hot 1.29 and put premium ran up to 105. Net declines were 2946 down to 152. That is 19 to 1 down vs up stocks. Oil was clocked to the tune of 6.30 today. Gasoline was nailed another .18 today and wholesale gas is at 2.74 30 year closed down 515 points to close at 11383. New lows hit 452 for NYSE and 302 for the Nasdaq. Put call ratio ran a hot 1.29 and put premium ran up to 105. Net declines were 2946 down to 152. That is 19 to 1 down vs up stocks. Oil was clocked to the tune of 6.30 today. Gasoline was nailed another .18 today and wholesale gas is at 2.74 30 year rates 3.66 10 year 2.39. Dollar on verge of reversal. Gold stalled and reversed today closing at 1659
8-5 Dji bounced off 90 week average. at 11179. New lows 814 vs 3 new highs The mikey10 is off the charts at 209 and the Mikey 5 is 134. This indicates that a short term bottom could be near. The intermediate trend is down and the long term trend is now neutral. Bonds were hit on news that the S&P downgraded US debt. That is just another way to get the shorts back in before they rally the bonds higher. I mean why would US bond rally after a downgrade. Well that is the way they do it so look for the bonds to take off again after this pullback.
8-8 DJI catches up with rest of market and trades to 200 week average. NYSE 0 new highs 1345 new lows. Mikey10 at -234 mikey 5 at -173. Mikey OB/OS -32 Weeky MACD below zero jast time was June 2010. The  Fed making money hand over fist on US bond position.
8-9 Fed plays catch today and says they will not hike rates. Really that was big news. The dollar returned to near its lows. Remember keep an eye on the uup it needs to trade above 21.80 to reverse. Today made it feel that QE 3 is on the way the way the currenciers all ripped the dollar. The Fed may not have the balls to do what they need to do which will drag this economy slowly into recession. Mikey 10 still way oversold at -226 Mikey 5 -169, Put call still high at 1.13 on a 400 up day. Closing in on the 5 day average which should be resisitance at 11500. Silver downgraded to neutral with the trend change at below 37.00. Gold keeps on going up 30 to 1743.

8-10 Mikey reading indicate a rally is nearing. The Fed and US treasury sold at aution Tuesday 24 billion of 3 year notes for .51% on wednesday it sold 24 billion of 10 year notes for 2.14% and tomarrow they will sell 16 billion of 30 year bonds at around 3.56%. It was sure nioce that the stock market sell off has created so much demand for US Debt just when the autions came in. Man are they lucky. I think you get the point. The stock market got out of the way and also the Euro bonds when France banking problems surfaced just in time for our auction. The Mikey 10 is a substancially oversold reading of -219 \the Mikey 5 is -161 and the VXZ is a col 58 induication the manager have a healthy respect for this sell off. A rally next week or options expirations week to about 11500 to 11700 would not surprise me at all. 
 8-11 Auction over fear leaves and market rallies bonds sell off and Gold falls.  Not Very original but who cares...right?
8-12 Week ends down a respectable 178 points rallying after the treasury auctions ended, what happens now well it would be perfect if the DJI would rally to about 11850 by next Friday, which was the breakdown and that way the puts would be wiped out. Mikey 5 is a normal +45 and the Mikey 10 is at an oversold -75. VXZ is till showing fear at 56.38 so all in all there is roonm to run it up. The 10 day average of Put/calls is a high 1.33 so the puts are ripe for the picking.
8-15 DJI continues to rally into expirations week Bye Bye puts.
8-16 Perry calls any more printing by the Fed treasonist. Obama needs more printing or the economy is toast.
8-17 Marking time
8-18 Dji drops 400 back near its 200 week and near its long term reversal point of 10,732
8-22 QE3 Ben talks tomorrow. meanwhile market working off oversold condition. Gold rumbles past 1900 margin increase anyone?? Dollar quietly up
8-23 Going into the Fed statement tomorrow the markets have anticipated the Fed to prop up assets and keep this thing from rolling over. Forget the idea that the economy is going to fall into recession. The idea is the same as it was in 2009 and 2010 that the Fed is going to catch it here and print. That is what today's 322 up day was saying. IBD went to market in confirmed uptrend today. Mikey 10 has run positive for the last 2 days the trend has a tendence to follow the 10 up and down. I think it is too early to call here with only 2 days posiitve.